@UncleFollower, you are likely right to point out the game plan of IOIPG, which all sounds well to me. This is evidenced from the recent purchases of W Hotel KL, Langkawi land for a hotel resort development and Tropicana City Mall, all purchased at below book value especially the last one Tropicana City Mall at almost 30% discount to book.

I expect IOIPG to turn around the business and grow them into steady cash cows then inject into REITs. When they inject the matured IOI City Mall, IOI Mall Puchong and this Tropicana City Mall into a commercial REIT in Malaysia at say dividend yield of 5.5%, the potential value of the commercial REIT may be over RM7.0 billion.

IOIPG may inject its hotels into a hospitality REIT separately when the hotels business turns around and yields steady cashflows, once the management estimated that its hotel assets would be worth some RM2.5 billion.

@Aero1, yes I do think that the AI boom will continue for at least another 1.5-2.0 years.

Oracle is not the only one bullish on the AI prospects, some other companies and analysts had predicted that the AI market size could grow to US$200 billion by 2030. Nvidia is doing US$23 billion of revenue a quarter from its data centre business division, so I guess it will double up by 2030.

Yes I agree with your arguments above.

But YTL is still cheap as a construction stock, if not seen as a conglomerate. YTL will be the key beneficial for the upcoming mega projects like MRT3 and HSR as one of the front runners to win the projects as a contractor.

As YTL owns some 73% stake in MCement, the surging profits at MCement will help to propel YTL earnings up in next few years and to push YTL share price to double up also by 2028.

Without the impairment, EPS would have been 16 sen a quarter, annualised to 64 sen for FY2025. At a conservative PER of 10x, MCement should be worth at least RM6.00.

Based on its operating cashflows of RM930 million a year, MCement would be valued at RM13.3 billion at 7% FCF yield, or RM9.90 per share as what I had initially projected back in 2022.

@hng33, you really had a good spot here again after winning big in PBA. Indeed a sifu in stock picking!

MCement latest Q4 result shows that its debt level has reduced by RM600 million in a year, due to its super strong cash flows of RM930 million in FY2024.

Q4 net profit would have been much higher if not for an impairment of RM137m recognised in the quarter for plant and machinery at Rawang plant. Pretax profit would have been at RM281 million without the impairment and net profit about RM215 million or EPS of 16.2 sen.

@Beta Ipoh, when I said the first phase of AI data centre at YTLP's Kulai DC park is being funded by Nvidia, I did refer to the GPU part. Typically for AI data centre, the developer like YTLP charges hyperscalers who rent the facilities at USD3.00-4.00 per hour per GPU, i,e. the developer constructs the data centre and pays for the GPUs then recovers the costs from the monthly rentals collected from hyperscalers who rent the facilities.

But in the case of Nvidia at Kulai, I understand that the arrangement is slightly different in that Nvidia is likely to fund the costs of GPUs which are to be supplied from Nvidia itself and pay a lower rental rate to YTL Power for the other facilities provided at the Kulai DC park (land, power and water supply, construction costs etc.). But it may be the case that follows the norm in which YTLP charges similar rental rate of USD per hour per GPU, but based on a special price for Nvidia GPUs.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726505

A positive move by IOIPG, the new industrial park segment may be the next catalyst to propel the company higher in coming 2-3 years

Foreign funds net bought RM11m worth of YTL Power shares and RM7m worth of YTL shares yesterday, after the big purchases of YTL last Friday and Monday.

Net short position on YTLP continued to slide down to 8.4m shares as of yesterday, and I see little short selling on YTL and YTLP today.

I sense that this MACC episode is going to be closed soon and YTL Comms will be cleared of any wrongdoing by MACC eventually.

Foreign funds net bought RM11 million worth of YTL Power shares and RM7 million worth of YTL shares yesterday. Looks like they have moved ahead of us in scooping up cheap tickets.

Net short position on YTL Power continued to slide down to 8.4m shares as of yesterday, despite new short addition of 100k shares yesterday. Today I see little short selling on YTL and YTLP too.

I guess foreign funds and short sellers already sense something ahead of us before the tide turns.

@ValueInvestor888, latest sources say MACC is no longer questioning any personnel from YTL Comms, and confidence has built up that YTL Comms will be cleared of any wrongdoing by MACC eventually.

I do not have other news but just faith in the company. Be patient to wait out this episode.

@ks55, good that you have an exit plan before even the entry. I hope you and I could get some towards RM3.00, and my cut loss point would be at RM2.70.

@Agjl, good to hear that you have made enough from YTL / MCement and YTLP. It is perfectly alright to call an exit after you have gotten your targeted returns.

As said before, YTLP is a stock only for long term investors, but it has lately become a good trading stock for both short term traders and short sellers due to the volatility. This is perfectly fine with me.

But what is not right is that some fake IDs keep spreading unfounded allegations against the YTL group. Pls note that it is an offence to spread such allegation while MACC is investigating the case.

YTL Power share price has gone up over 100% from RM2.50 in early Jan 2024 to a high of RM5.40 in May/June then succumbed to profit taking that has taken it down by 40% to RM3.30. I see it a normal trading cycle, and blips in a very long term rally that may last for few more years.

I see limited downside from here, and see the prospects of another 100% gain in making if I can get it at anything close to RM3.00-3.15, as even based on the most bearish earnings projection of EPS 37 sen for FY2025, YTL Power has the chance to trade up to RM5.55 based on 15x PER, and up to RM6.70 if based on 15x PER on my earnings projection of 45 sen in FY2025.

Despite the continued bashing by certain new IDs in this forum, YTL and YTLP shares are rebounding strongly.

I think i3 admin should block these new IDs for spreading unfounded allegation while MACC is investigating the case, or else YTL group may initiate legal actions against i3 or some of these people behind the fake IDs

There was no more notable selling on YTLP and YTL by foreign funds yesterday. On the opposite, foreign funds bought in another RM41 million worth of YTL shares on Monday after the net buy of RM47m last Friday. Foreign funds net bought RM23m of YTL Power shares last Friday but net sold RM18m on Monday.

That shows to me that foreign funds are not bothered with all this political name tarnishing noise and focus on buying quality blue chip YTL as the share price is unjustifiably sold down.

Net short positions on YTL have dropped to negligible level below 0.1%. NSP on YTLP stays around 9.0 million shares as of yesterday, with no visible addition today itself. Share price has dropped 20% in one week and there is nothing more to short for.

YTLP is on track with the AI data centre development, and Nvidia has committed to deliver the necessary GPUs towards end of 2024 for the first phase of its 50MW AI data centre which is being funded by Nvidia itself.

The earning contribution to YTL Power will be substantial as calculated in my earlier articles and by various analysts like Ambank and CLSA in great details.

The equity structure on Nvidia tie-up has been made clear to many analysts who were on the briefing call after Q4 FY24 result on 23 August, it is not pricy to anyone on the street.

YTLP has very strong operating cashflows every year, totalling RM5.575 billion in FY2024, more than sufficient to fund the capex of RM3.339 billion in the year. Net debts remain stable at RM26.7 billion as of 30 June 2024, mainly ring-fenced at subsidiaries like Wessex and Jordan Power.

While the negative sentiments cloud over YTLP share price in near term, I see potential surprises and positive developments below that may result in a meaningful rebound in YTLP share price in coming weeks / months:
1) PowerSeraya to deliver stronger earnings of over SGD200 million a quarter from Q2 FY2025 once the temporary price dumping actions by one genco ease off in coming 2-3 months after its recently secured extra gas supply tapers off

2) Wessex Waters to deliver PBT contribution of close to RM100 million a quarter when inflation continues to cool off towards 2.0% in the UK from September (2.2% in August) and interest rates are lowered by 50 bps or more by end of 2024

3) Ranhill to deliver substantially higher profits from Q2 FY2025 as synergies kick in after the take-over by YTLP, and additional water supply demand from new data centres and developments in Johor

4) YTLP to announce new clients take-off secured for its AI data centre or/and colocation data centres, as I gather they maybe in negotiations with a couple of parties more after the hyperscaler who took up 40MW+40MW in May 2024

5) UK Brabazon property project to contribute meaningful earnings to YTLP as the first batch of homes are being handed over to the buyers in 2H 2024

6) Kepong WTE project gets the go-ahead and achieves financial close by end of 2024, despite the recent petition from residents against it due to political motives

7) The MLFF project gets the go-ahead nod from the unity government, despite the protests from highway concessionaires who do not want their toll collection to be known to other parties. YTLP is already doing a Proof of Concept for MLFF and I expect a favourable outcome soon

8) Jordan Power continues to deliver steady income from shareholders' loan interest income and O&M contracts for the power plant and for the mining, as well as to report improving earnings from the project as project loan reduces over time and the inflation adjustments kick in the PPA tariffs every year.

I would caution against any further allegation on this 1Bestarinet project, let MACC investigate. I am sure YTL Comms will be cleared of any wrongdoing eventually, just as PAC found nothing wrong with the project in its reports a couple of times.

But the damage on the share price has been done as YTLP share price has dropped 20% from the RM4.10 level early last week. I think short sellers have won handsomely this round, so no need to push it too far.

Whatever naysayers have to say, that is enough coz they have achieved their purpose.

I am not asking anyone to buy in YTLP now as I fear the negative sentiments from the MACC case may drag on for weeks or even months. It is a stock only for long term investors.

YTL Power remains the cheapest utility stock in Bursa, trading at just 8x PER on its traditional utility businesses' earnings, not yet including any future earnings of AI data centre. So those sell-side analysts who downgraded YTLP last month on potential delays in Nvidia Blackwell GPUs were talking nonsense.

I see no delay in the roll out of the first phase AI data centre in Q1 CY2025, based on information that I gather so far. AI data centre will start contributing meaningful earnings to YTLP from Q4 FY2025 onwards once completed in Q3 FY2025. That will propel YTLP net profit towards the RM4.0 billion mark in FY2026, causing YTLP stock PER to drop to 6.6x in 2026.

I see earnings of YTL Power to rise by 10% or so in FY2025 to above RM3.5 billion, despite the efforts of sell-side analysts to downplay the earnings of PowerSeraya and AI data centres (eg. CGS), Maybank even worse to completely ignore the earnings from Jordan Power.

Apart from YTL Power, YTL's 73%-owned subsidiary MCement will see its earnings another jump in quarters ahead as several mega infrastructure projects are taking off in soon - MRT3, Penang LRT, KL-Singapore HSR, Singapore Changi Terminal 5, Tuas Mega Port etc.

YTL hotels and shopping mall division will see continued strength as visa free travels from China and India will continue well into 2025.

YTL share price drop by over 20% in past 1 week is unjustified. It was obviously affected by the MACC investigation on the 1Bestarinet project which was used by business rivals and short sellers to press down the share price.

It is just a political maneuver which will not cause any harm to YTL's future prospects. The fundamentals remain intact with improving earnings outlook in next few years. For instance, CGS upgraded YTL to a Buy with target price of RM3.55 after the Q4 FY24 result update. CGS lowering of YTL target price was due to a cut in FY2025 earnings of YTL Power by 14%, which itself will prove to be a mistake.

Despite the cut in earnings in FY2025, YTL is trading at CY2025 PER of just 12x which makes it the cheapest construction cum conglomerate stocks in Bursa. Other big cap construction stocks are trading at PER of well over 20x.

Why I said the earnings cut of 14% for YTLP FY25 earnings by CGS is a mistake is because CGS pushed forward the AI data centre earnings contribution to YTLP to FY2026, i.e. it did not include any earnings contribution of AI data centre in FY2025 altogether. I think this will prove to be a mistake.

or the Marina View Residences project receives better than expected responses after launch in September

- any land sale in Johor
- a sooner turnaround in its hotel business
- potential setting up of a commercial REIT to house its shopping malls and office towers in Malaysia

- US Fed lowers fund rates by over 25 bps in its September meeting, or cut by 100 bps before end of 2024

- IOICB secures more tenants beyond the current 50%

However, I do not discount the possibility of IOIPG share price rebounding earlier if we can see some good news coming up in coming weeks:

We may need to wait for 1 or 2 more quarters before we can see meaningful rebounds in the share price of IOIPG, as the company needs to ride through Q1 and Q2 FY2025 when IOICB is expected to incur some losses due to interest expenses kicking in and tenancy remains at 50%.

Now high gearing is no longer an issue with analysts, who now spell fears on high interest expenses at IOICB that will start to kick in from Q1 FY2025. I think there sell-side analysts have overblown the issue on high interest expense, just like they overblew the issue of high gearing before.

Nonetheless, the overall market sentiment is weak with US stock markets dropping big last week. Yet foreign funds still net bought hundreds of million ringgit worth of equities in Bursa last week. The average cost of entry into IOIPG by foreign funds is slightly above RM2.00, so at current prices below RM2.00 I do not think many foreign funds will sell.

Some local funds are not yet buying in IOIPG as its net gearing is higher than 50% hence is classified as non syariah compliant, but at least we see EPF still accumulating IOIPG in past few weeks.

When foreign funds and local funds are not buying, local retailers tend to sell to cut loss as their holding power is weak.

This MACC case is just a campaign by certain fractions to tarnish the reputation of YTL group, it will be over soon and will not cause any impact on YTL/YTLP earnings going forward. I believe the share price of both will rebound to previous highs again in next few months as fundamentals remain intact.

Short sellers may be winning this round, but as a long term investor, as long as I do not sell at current low prices, I DO NOT LOSE.

FYI, foreign funds net bought RM47 million worth of YTL shares last Friday and RM23 million worth of YTL Power shares last Friday alone. Some smart local retailers also bought a total of RM14m of YTL shares and RM12m of YTLP shares last Friday.

@cwc1981, I don't think the 1Bestarinet project was a total failure. YTL completed the project according to the specifications spelled out by the ministry, i.e. install wifi infrastructure at 10,000 schools nationwide and provide chromebooks to students for VLE.

YTL Comms completed the project ahead of schedule within 7 years instead of the planned 15 years. The project had been certified by the Ministry of Education as being successfully completed when the project was not extended for the last phase. The last phase was where YTL Comms would fulfill the final objective of maximising the engagement level of students with the digital learning platform. When the contract was ended in June 2019, 1 million of the total 5 million students were actively logging in and engaged in the virtual learning.

So there was nothing wrong on YTL's part, as YTL Comms was just a contractor who completed the project according to specs.

YTL Comms has not made any money from the 1Bestarinet Project despite having spent RM4.0 billion in completing the project ahead of schedule. The last phase of the project, if the contract was not terminated half way, would have just involved the government paying YTL Comms for opex, i.e. broadband data usage and licensing of the learning software for the students, a relatively small amount of some RM10m for 5 years of usage after 2019.

Now the MACC is saying that the investigation so far found that the government has to bear claims worth RM176 million from YTL Comms but the claim information has yet to be confirmed by the government, other than telecommunication substation rental losses for a period of 5 years from 2019 that is estimated at RM10.8m.

This RM176m in claims has nothing to do with the RM2.7 billion in false claims which the FMT first highlighted which accused YTL Comms of receiving the RM2.7b for 1Bestarinet for doing nothing. There is no mention of this now by the MACC.

Maybank being the most conservative on YTL Power earnings projection has included YTL Power as one of its top picks for large cap buys in a report yesterday. It has a target price of RM4.70 for YTLP, at a prospective PER of 13x FY2025 EPS of 36.8 sen (the most conservative among analysts).

I am projecting EPS of 46 sen for FY2025, not far from HLIB's projection of 42 sen. HLIB has a target price of RM7.45 for YTLP, at prospective PER of 17.7x on its projected FY2025 earnings and at prospective PER of 16x on my projected FY2025 earnings. This is entirely reasonable valuation, compared to PER of over 20x for Tenaga and PetGas.

This case will not have any impact on YTL Power earnings, none of the analysts cares to comment on it. It is just a blip, as what we have seen last year when Singapore EMA announced the Temporary Price Cap (TPC) in the wholesale pool market, and YTLP share price took a dip from RM1.30 to RM1.15 within hours. But records showed that foreign funds bought in YTL Power in a big way in July 2023.

Similarly foreign funds also net bought RM20m of YTLP last Thursday and another RM16m last Friday when YTLP share price was suffering from rampant short selling ahead of the expiry of 2 call warrants on 30 August. Fund managers see values in YTLP and always buy in when such a great opportunity arises.

The Edge in its CEO Morning Brief paper this morning did not dare to use the word "raid" anymore.

YTL Power is the cheapest utility stock in Bursa with FY24 PER of just 8.6x at opening price of RM3.61 just now. PER will fall to just 8.0x FY2025 earnings.

Other utility stocks are well over 20x PER. Value shall prevail eventually.

Be careful with what you say. MACC director when contracted confirmed the matter, which is the investigation into the 1Bestarinet project payment claims, not the raid into YTL Comms office. I would fall back to the company official statement, and not trust any unknown "source" to Bernama.

Wow so good to have the chance to buy at 3.61, and I guess an estimated 1.5 million shares of shorts were closed out at opening.

MACC has recently requested information from YTL Comms in respect of the 1Bestarinet Project. There was no raid in the office, YTL Comms is providing full cooperation to MACC on this matter.

This is an old project which was awarded to YTL Comms in 2011 by the Ministry of Education in an open tender. YTL Comms was selected as being the most technically compliant and most cost-effective bid.

There was nothing wrong on YTL part and YTL has seen such allegation before.

I think short sellers were using this news to benefit by betting lots of shorts on YTL Power in past 2 weeks, but more than 5 million shares of shorts were closed out yesterday. The remaining shorts, estimated to be less than 8 million shares should be using this headline news to close out tomorrow.

MACC has recently requested information from YTL Comms in respect of the 1Bestarinet Project. It was not an office raid as reported by certain media.

YTL Comms is providing full cooperation to MACC on this matter.

This is an old project which YTL Comms was selected for being the most technically compliant and most cost-efficient bid in the open tender. The project has been certified by the Ministry of Education as being successfully completed at the end of the contract period on 30 June 2019.

@cktay, you can pm me using i3 messenger. Let me try to find you there

Correction, the net short positions on YTL and YTLP may not have come to zero, but are less than 0.1% of their respective paid-up share base, i.e. net short positions on YTL have reduced to below 11 million shares and NSP on YTLP has reduced to below 8.2 million shares as of yesterday.

Bursa latest data shows that the net short positions on YTL and YTL Power have both reduced to zero yesterday, meaning that short sellers closed all their short positions on these two counters with buying of over 13 million shares of YTL Power yesterday and over 12 million shares of YTL on 28 August.

That reinforces my earlier projection that short positions on YTL and YTLP would be closed out after the Q4 FY24 results.

Foreign funds are ahead of us in their actions in many cases, just like they bought in big on YTL and YTL Power in Jan 2024, right after YTL Power announced the tie-up with Nvidia in Dec 2023. They started selling down on YTL and YTL Power in early May 24 after the share price of both counters had jumped up by 100% since early Jan 2024. That might be just profit taking after gaining 100% in 4 months.

Foreign funds not only sold down on YTL/YTLP, they also sold down on property counters like SPSetia and Eco World in July-August after buying big in early Jan 24. They switched from some property counters to big cap construction stocks like Gamuda and IJM, but have since also sold down these construction stocks.

They found new targets in banking stocks in July then Tenaga in August, all blue chips liquid enough for foreign funds to park their money after selling off YTL/YTLP, property and construction counters.

Right now, foreign funds are still buying big on Tenaga after it released a good set of results end of August. They have switched bank stocks from CIMB to Public Bank and Maybank. I expect their buying in Tenaga and bank stocks to taper off in coming weeks, as they sense not much upside to be derived as local funds and local retailers are selling big time to them. for instance, local funds net sold a total of RM172 million worth of Tenaga and local retailers net sold RM14m of Tenaga yesterday while foreign funds net bought RM184m.

It looks like typical rotational plays by foreign funds when they come into Bursa. Soon I expect foreign funds to buy back on YTL and YTL Power after paring down their holdings to the minimum, as both companies continue to announce strong profits in next few quarters.

And I suspect retails counters may be the next targets of foreign funds, as 99 Speed Mart will be listed next Monday and consumer spending is expected to rise after massive amounts of funds were withdrawn to the Third Account of EPF and PMX announced big pay rise for civil servants.

@SCM2023, I cannot speak for foreign funds and don't claim to understand fully their recent moves. But typically foreign funds are in and out within 4-6 months, they bought in big on YTL in Jan-Mar 2024 with total purchase of over RM850 million. Foreign funds had been selling YTL shares since May 24 and have almost sold off their entire holdings in YTL within 4 months.

Maybank latest fund flows report this morning shows that foreign funds sold a total of RM190m worth of YTL shares in the month of August, effectively bringing down their holdings in YTL to zero. So we will not see much selling on YTL from foreign funds going forward.

Foreign funds sold a net RM231m worth of YTL Power shares in the month of August, bringing their net holdings in YTLP to about RM60 million only as of 30 August 2024. But they bought back some RM16m of YTLP shares last Thursday and RM20m last Friday, then net sold RM9m on Monday.

I guess foreign funds will maintain holding about 30 million shares in YTL Power in near term, and hence selling by foreign funds on YTL Power will ease off substantially going forward.

@cktay, Maybank research publishes a monthly report on fund flows which summarises the top 20 buy / sell counters of foreign funds for the prior month. HLIB sends around the daily fund flows data that summarises the top 10 buy / sell counters by foreign funds, local institutional funds and local retailers. I believe both research houses get the data from Bursa, just they choose to publish it differently.

I have been tracking the funds movements in YTL, YTL Power and IOIPG since early 2024. I have all the monthly reports from Maybank. If you are interested, can pm me.

After the expiry of a call warrant last Friday, IOIPG can enjoy steady rise now.

With the Shenton House proposal rejected, IOIPG should be gradually going back to RM2.50 level.

Other positive developments for YTL are:

1) Strengthening ringgit will be a massive re-rating factor for MCement (in which YTL owns 73% stakes), as the bulk of its costs (particularly coal prices) is denominated in US dollars. With its revenue mostly in ringgit, weakening US dollars will reduce its operating costs tremendously and increase its profits. A simple calculation shows that a 10% strengthening in ringgit against US dollars will reduce MCement operating costs by about RM200 million a year (estimated based on total costs of goods sold of RM2.5b a year, 80% denominated in US dollars).

2) Market expectation is for MRT3 project to be revived soon and be included into 2025 budget of the government. Recall that YTL was the lowest bidder for one of the packages at slightly below RM11 billion. YTL will be in a strong position to win a portion of MRT3 project when revived.

Foreign funds turned sellers of YTL Power yesterday with a net sale of RM9m worth of shares, as cktay highlighted above.

Foreign funds' holdings in YTL Power dropped to a low of about 30 million shares last week, a big drop from the peak holdings of close to 400 million shares in Jan-Feb 2024. I suppose this 30m shares is sort of the minimum hold by some of the foreign funds who opt for longer term holds or who use it as hedge for their call warrant issuance.

This also shows that local institutional funds have collected over 300 million shares of YTL Power in past 2-3 months, and the average price is likely to be around RM4.00. Local institutional funds like EPF are likely to be long term investors, unlike foreign funds typically in and out within 4-6 months.

With early signs of foreign funds gaining re-entry into YTL Power, and local institutional funds likely not selling at current prices which are about their average entry price, YTL Power share price may see good upsides when there is some good news that attracts more foreign funds to come in.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724958

Macquarie is positive on YTL Power.

Remember - short sellers cannot short forever, at some point in time, they have to close out the short positions. But we as value investors can hold on for as long as we want, so we shall win eventually if you have the holding power.