told you guys... expect it to drop tomorrow, no special dividend** Ahem** TUA PEK KONG** Ahem** losses increased from their china operations, **BUT their dubai operations is turning around strongly. Losses reduced by 1 million, which is the top of my expectations.

Gonna have a selling wave tomorrow, but can add more at ~95 cents. Longer term, it's a good keep. Should I have sell? Maybe in hindsight.. anyway, fundamentally, it's improving, and they need to sell their remaining china assets ASAP now..

I dont mind selling at 1.1, my order's there.. but so huge sellers in 105 106 107 108... hahaha.. tua pek kong sleep d

Or maybe their exit point is longer...

If you're someone who can wait for their dubai turnaround to complete, maybe 150 is possible, but we're talking at least 1 if not 2 years from now. However, I must admit, I'm not sure what's the strategy of those who's still buying at 105-108....

Do they still expect a 10% gain? even after buying at 105? There's millions spent buying ILB from 105++... they all can't be stupid right.. or maybe their average price is just 100 or lower if they accumulated huge amounts during 7x-8x

Impossible 70 cent dividends right, that's like giving all their cash out d.

Maybe 25 cent, and even that's not guarenteed...

And here we're talking abt Tp 180, 220...

The profit result, at most, their dubai is still gonna lose 1 million. From previous Q loss of 2.x million, i'm giving them very very generous improvement d..

Sometimes, it's just common sense.. I think a lot of you all will be disappointed when the real results comes out. And will trigger a dump again. Aih. Of course, as someone still holding to mine, go ahead, push it to 180..

Are you serious rm 1.80-rm 2.20??? I don't want to go on against other posters, I'm glad we're sharing what we can. But that's really impossible TP loh. I can see that price being possible in 3 years time, assuming the dubai business keep progressing well.

Even then, there's so much risk in such a long time frame.

Sometimes, the things posted in forums' is really out of this world...
The real people who have news, won't be posting it in i3.

actually, I dont think there's gonna be a super surprise.
At most, dividend is announced, and their dubai operations losses is less. Ard 1.5-2 million loss. This is the best case most realistic scenario. Careful of the hype, although I dont mind you guys keep buying it up :)

Some rich ppl is buying in... but can say rich ppl selling too :S

By next week mostly... today even if it's close at 95, but very very strong volumes.. good signs.

3000+ sell volume bought up within 20 minutes.

So many new Notion-ers suddenly.. hahaha. I'll just drop by to put my 2cents.

I'm one of the longer holders of notion, all the while trying to give a neutral position while everyone was screaming sell back then. But eventually, I did cash all out during the recent rise, missed the peak by a lot too...I must sadly admit. Those who follow this thread, should remember me ba.

I'm not someone who follows emotions, rather like to believe in numbers.
The numbers don't really look good near term.

If it's not for the forex, it'll be another Q of lost for notion.

Now, just recently, someone was saying the Thoo Chow Fah is buying, but at the same time I did try to offer a counter opinion that, the other directors were selling too... In my mind, if the other directors are selling so near this Q's results, surely they know it's not going to be good.

And it's not too good to be honest.

QoQ wise, I'll expect the same results next quarter.
HDD, 22m (+2 qoq)
Camera, 20m (+5 qoq)
Automotive, 20m (+3 qoq)
Silver, -2.5m
Forex, 0 (no more forex gains, unless USD dips below 3? as current favourable exchange rate already booked for all outstanding loans, more forex gain is only possible if USD continues weaken)

All in, abt 5m better vs this q. My figures here is very very optimistic already, showing reasonable growth across all 3 core sectors.

Assuming even if the glass business is confirmed for 2015, it's a bit of a disappointment, initially, I was hoping it's related to the metal aluminium body, as I believe that's the real good margins...

If it's machining glass, the glass should come preordered from sony or lg or etc.. and notion's part should just be on grinding the edges to smooth things out and to get the rounded edges, which may not be able to contribute big margins... **I could be wrong. assuming a RM1-2 net profit per piece, at 1.5million pieces per q, the initial contribution from machining of glasses may not be that much.. Mmm. However, if they can grow it to 4 or 5 million per q, then there'll be some good money in it, that's definitely possible.

Another thing that I'm a bit uncomfortable, is previously I take it as their management to be honest in their reporting, however, I'm a bit worried on some signs where what's reported didn't turn up well. For example, their fire insurance claims, they keep saying it'll be paid in the next quarter, for too long already... a bit of a red flag there.
Or the special dividend which was hinted, as another example. It may still come, in the future.

Let's see how the shareprice reacts.

*Final disclaimer, all in, I still think it's can be re-bought back at a lower price. If it drops to ard 55-60, maybe i'll jump back in.

I'm more interested to see actual growth/reduction of losses in their Dubai operations. Dividend and cash, is just gonna be there for a while. Actual growth, going to last forever. An improvement of 4-600k QoQ is a great sign.

98.72 cents to be exact, take cash and cash equivalent 175,758,000 / 178,026,000 shares.

Now that it broke news, public investors are all jumping in, no stopping this train now, but I doubt the majority of them will stay around if a bad/not so good quarter result is announced soon.

Ok.. found the news, from the chairman himself.
Interesting... let's see how it goes, he did only say, 'close to clinching' the contracts... Sony and LG would be the customers if accurate.
Sony, possible from their SLR tie up previously I think, LG?

Mmmm, one thing of interest is the smartphone assembly would still be in China, which component is notion going to provide? The body itself (most likely, those metal phones which CNC machines can do)

Up til now, I think Thoo Chow Fah is still pretty trustworthy, it'll be interesting if he made up the news to support a goreng.
Still, impossible Choo Wing Hong don't know of any ongoing contracts negotiation and he choose to sell at 55?

Disclaimer wise, I did unload majority of my holdings, too early i must say :( but still have some left to enjoy the run...

Mmm.. i remember a lot of people were screaming sell and what not previously... traders :P if you sold, you've just locked in your losses.

Now, is this pure goreng? Or will it last... Mmmm.

Calvin, you chose to ignore the fact that another director was dumping too, even at 0.55.

Invester, if what you say is true, fundamentally that's a major good news (But still I doubt Choo Wing Hong will not know of...)

I've been a steady voice here, let's see how it goes... But the smartphone news, seems a bit not jive.. Their prior strategy announcement is automotive, oil and gas... sudddenly smartphone?? Unless they are doing iphone6, htc etc body with their CNC machines?

Quarter result's out, 7 mill loss, camera sales dropped a further 5 million to 10million, camera sales just drove off the cliff, in this last 2 Q.

Increase in HDD and neutral in automotive, + a bit of forex gain...

What to make of it, and if you're already in the boat (like i am)

ENTERPRISE HDD is gaining strength, VS 2013's 4Qs, HDD sales increases from Q to Q over the year, 2nd Q's 2014 is already higher than 4th Q 2013. If the same season sales pattern persist, sales still should have some more room to grow, as 4th Q is the strongest..

CAMERA
It can't get any worst realistically now can it?

1st Q 2013 sales, 22mil, vs 1st Q 2014 15 million. (32% drop YoY)
2nd Q 2013 sales, 20mil, vs 2nd Q 2014 10 million (50% drop YoY)

The level of drop here, is significantly more than Nikon's sales drop. Unless Nikon has a significant stockpile, correction should stop after 6 months of stock clearances. Also, Nikon's projected YoY sales vs 2014 is an 8% drop in sales. Which is a far cry from the YoY % drop we're seeing here with Notion of abt 40%. Taking a 8% drop from Notion's 2013 sales to match Nikon's projection, can we see camera sales normalize back to ~18-19m per quarter for the final 2 Qs?

AUTOMOTIVE
Seasonally, vs 2013's each Quarter reviews, the 2nd Q 2014 sales have already surpassed the 4th Q of 2013, again if similar seasonal sales pattern is projected, still room for auto sales growth for the next 2 Q.

SILVER
Not good... expect another 1 mil loss, potentially 1 mil write off per Q until all invested amount is written off, to consider as the worst case scenario.. silver price is not too bad, but something else is wrong with alcyone management... Really like to know more from Thoo Chow Fah on what's happening there.

FOREX
Good news at least here. As of now, USD to RM of 3.23, reliazed forex gain for the past 1.5 month of next Q's result already locked in. Surprising strength of RM since, most will probably expect RM to weaken further as QE tapering continues... Close of 3.23-3.20 at end of June's gonna be great.

OIL and GAS?
Finally, after the announcement of venturing into O&G, like 1 and half years ago by Notion, there's a mention of it in this Q's results. Seems to be positive, but not sure how much that will bring in terms of sales.

+20% SALES??
Notion management projects an increase of 20% sales in 2nd Half, where and how will these 20% come from? Probable or are they just blowing water?

Let's see where we can get 53-55m from.
Worst case scenario
HDD - 22m = Assuming no significant increase QoQ.
Camera - 18m = From 2013's lowest Q sales of 20m, + the already huge drop in the 1st two Q of 2014. Shld be able to at least normalize back to 18million? Conservative figure?
Automotive - 12m = Again assuming no significant changes
Silver - (1m)

Probable scenario?
HDD - 24m
Camera - 20m (This is equal to 2013's lowest Q sales for camera)
Auto - 14m
Silver - (1m)

Optimistic scenario
HDD - 24m
Camera - 23m
Auto - 15m
Oil & Gas - 1m?
Silver - (1m)

MANAGEMENT PERFORMANCE?
How did they react to the drop in sales from Camera/HDD as their business goes along....
They managed to get TRW in abt 3 quarters ago. But it's been pretty quiet after that. Didn't managed to see a big growth in automotive sales from TRW's entrance unfortunately.

Oil & Gas, some small update on this, after being silent/bad news on this for the past 1 year. Hopefully, we'll see actual sales in the next Q.

Silver. Mmm, an unsuccessful attempt at diversification. I was optimistic on that initially, and was expecting alcyone to at least breakeven. But, don't know why they have a hard time to extract the silver out, they have some fundamental issues at their leaching pads... not gonna be easy to solve.


Were they aware of the significant camera sales drop that happened subsequently? And now that it's beyond reasonable doubts that camera division is in trouble, how are they going to react to this?

Management rpt card, so so at the moment.. good & bad decisions.

All in.
Expecting a wave of selling in the next couple weeks, unless there's some more Bursa announcements coming up in regards to dividend/new customer. Conclusion? Inconclusive, trader in me ask to sell & buyback, investor in me, sees positive fundamental values still intact. NAPS, great amount of CNC machines that can roll out the $ if can be utilized. Expect another JCY like drop, before share price recovering strongly as the Q results improves.

Or maybe you meant few weeks/months?

Thank you green tea, it's a good share...

I just like to add that there's an mistake in your post.. even though I do expect Nikon to post a flat result. Nikon's only annoucing their Q result couple weeks from now. May 13 2014 to be exact. Source:http://nikon.com/about/ir/

So, unless you came back from the future.... :)
"Yet, the fact that DSL camera market is still weak base on Nikon's latest quarter report announced few days ago. "

mmm better to keep low at the moment, but let's see how it goes :) cautiously optimistic. warrant A, they sold off long time ago actually, no effect to what happened in the past 6 months. The exercise price is nonsense too, and with the nearer excise date, makes sense to sell.

On WB, its still quite funny, that on the days the Ds, dispose, it was equally met with buyers at high volume too. if you follow notion-b's volume, at the rates that the directors were disposing previously, it's more than enough to tank it to 10 cent and below in a single day. Excise price of RM1, is still probable to be in the money since it have sufficient time left to mature.

dont feel like talking too much on this d, as previously... maybe you can take the flag :D

Been staying out of spotlight for a while... but i'm still holding ;D
Yes Green Tea, I do agree that one thing I like abt notion, is their management is quite frank on their projections, and when possible I think they warned the investors ahead of a bad Q and what not.

what's the total CNC machines that they have at the moment? Assuming Q42013's harddisk division sales of 21.2mil is at 80% utilization, now they mentioned it's in full capacity (21.2*1.2) = 25.5 mill, + 100 CNC machines more allocated to it from camera. Potentially, HDD sales is at 27-30 million?

Assume camera sales is stagnant at 15.8m QoQ

Automotive +8% (based on 8% increase in car sales in europe that u can google abt) QoQ = 13.8m

Revenue = ~54-56mil
Assume all losses is as same as previous(forex, alcyone, etc) QoQ
Assume finally a low insurance claim of 3 mil.

Quarter result shld be breakeven to +3 mil in gains?
Probable?

On their forex losses.. Prior to this, in 2011 and 2012 their forex gains was actually 11 million from the hedge. 2013 -3.7 mill and as of 2014 at 3.28 (forex loss of 3.3mil) net they're still 4 million gain from forex at the moment. I think all in, their forex is a no win no lose in the end after all.

.... sometimes it's hard to expect others to understand ur point here... my statement is just simply to say even the fund managers may get it wrong. since after their purchase, it went back to 2.8 before climbing back up again... i'm not saying im right or u're wrong.. aih. different understanding of english is common here it seems

angelina, like i said, seems their entry is high, and they don't necessary manage to ALWAYS buy low, sell high. as again i mentioned, of course i didn't check their entire purchase history la to really find their AVG price.

Just saying that even fund managers can get it wrong, or didn't able to expect the drop back to 2.8x that happened.

EPF and fund managers are also human it seems... after EPF's buy to peak on 13/12... it went down south until 2.8x and now that it's in the money, they're selling it..

Was looking through some of EPF's buying... their buying price is quite high.. for the last few rounds of purchases, from nov to dec onwards.. average maybe 3.3.. So if they dispose at 3.5, not so much profit in terms of % really... mmmm. I didn't go further back on their buying history though.

No big buyers... small timers buy a bit here n sell a bit there, can't move...

very strange volume for KPS and Puncak.. vs engtex which just shot up.

Yeah, noted the 1.9k and 2k transaction... abt time for some of those who exited to come back in... but volume still too low..

well, gonna be 10th March soon... if it wanna happens, it will happen this 3 days...

volumes too low at the moment, although some support seems to happen at 335. why would you say something's happening?

Very slow day... volume is so small.. all waiting?

Look at the chart on 13/12/13 and 16/12/13 I wonder if it'll match the same trade pattern after this or not...

Actually, yesterday was a perfect technical setup for it to breach higher... not only did it fail at that, the sellers won too.. although, the overall volume is still lower than yesterday's gain volume.
Now if it doesn't turn up on monday, more and more sellers will join in and beat it back down.. mmmm..

there's no more weak holders, i think as a hot stock, it's getting repeatedly manipulated on purpose... if just rise from 3.00 to 4.00 for example, only gain 33% but if 3 > 3.5 > 3 > 3.5 again and again.. the profits is much much more.. either u're really long term holder or u sell when it's almost acceptable to u... serious money is playing the stock here..

Very quiet forum now d.... aih sad sad notion

dont think anyone got appetite to go d.. hehe, but would be interested to know more from the directors.. what's their plans in regards to things right now...

Huge Q at 347, 48 49 and 350.. how to break.

The speculators who wants to make quick money are all leaving.. either they buy on margin/T+3 players who really dont have the money to hold.. see how it goes after today...

As of now, there's no mention anywhere that the gov will send letter.
The 2b government give to selangor, is more like a loan so that selangor only pay the remaining 7.x billion. in return for accepting the 2b, selangor actually will give 2b worth of assets back to the Fed.

The fed didn't give anything away

Why would TP at 4.16, when NAPS is closer to 4.30? In any business deals, you'll not only sell your business at NAPS price, but you'll sell it with premium if it's a profitable business.. I wonder why the valuations from the research houses is so low? Not trying to hype up the stock, but just want objective discussion on it.

insider selling? dont make sense for it to drop significantly otherwise..

And up it tries to go again.. really wacky

The insanity of share markets.. in 30 minutes.

For those still holding, due to notion's big hedging position, their forex hedge itself, can be considered as a separate business unit. All in can consider notion's business to

HDD, Camera, Auto, Forex, Silver.

At the moment, Forex and Silver is heading the right way... but it's a very volatile thing, which may or may not last.

Gold price will normally trend against the USD... weak USD, higher gold price... Notion's forex performance and silver performance will rise and fall together. USD to RM exchange need to drop to 3.23 for some forex gain on next Q, and at that rate, silver maybe will hit 23-24 usd. Because of weak sales in camera, forex n silver will play a bigger role now.

Notion's 2/5 eggs is in the same basket, and both of which cant be controlled by anyone.. Mmmmm. Our fate as shareholders(short term) lies in the wind :/

I believe their next Q's profitability will depends a lot in this aspect.... very risky to say the least. USD to RM 3.23 and below, will have forex gain, and gain from associate (silver)

Stupid or not for still keeping, well, what's your reasons for buying it in the first place? Are those reasons still valid? My reasons
EPS, NAPS, and Good Management team.. (well, based on how they grew their company up from back then.. you have to give them credit)

So, EPS is down right now... is it a permanent thing? If yes, sell.
NAPS. Still good.
Management team... Disagree with their huge positions on forex hedges, to me forex is a gamble, you win some (When USD > RM is below 3.21), but you'll lose back eventually (Now), why hedge in the first place then?

Neutral on their silver investment, overpaid yes we all know that, but hey silver is still rallying, at the moment.

Mmm... stuck between a rock and a hard place, selling it at too low a price, and u'll just realized your losses.
Look at JCY last few months ago, ppl were screaming sell sell sell, research house TP 40 cents... to those who sold at 5x, they'll curse now.

This is just for current stock holders... and my own thoughts as holder too :(

If nothing else and notion just break even this year, notion's still well supported by their net asset per share of RM 1.1x. If you have another stock selection or better choice in this 3-6 months, by all means, sell. (but ur new stock will have the same risks too, no guarentee it'll fly)

Analyzing notion losses,
Operation loss, 3.8 mil (Will recur again if same revenue figures next Q)
Derivative loss/Forex 3.3 mil (If USD to RM is worst than 3.28 will incur more losses, of course if lower than that amount, will get some forex gains)
Finance cost 1.2 mil ( Will happen again )
Loss from associate 1.1 mil ( At current silver price, and if alcyone's turn around is successful/or as they planned, this should be a net gain next q)

Projected next Q results, worst case scenario
Same operation loss 3.8mil
Forex loss, could be higher, as it went to 3.33 in this q, but it's back to 3.29 at this point. 4.5mil
Finance cost 1.2 mil
Gain from associate 0.1 mil or put it as zero. At current silver price, if can maintain til end march, alcyone should finally breakeven or small profit due to capex still ongoing.

Insurance claim coming in?? Finally? 2 mil? Very pessimistic figures, I put.

Net loss next Q, 7 mil + tax, 7.5mil?
If worst than this... then something else is going on there, and really need to revise my outlook on it.

There's the land sale and leaseback going on, for a potential one off 60mil gain, but dont think it'll be completed by end of March to reflect in next Q?

at least, they are taking steps... whether right or wrong, or how fast can TRW account grow/silver up... nobody knows yet. Definitely not good for short term traders looking to make a quick buck. Guess they'll be cutting loss in the next few months of trading session.

I take a longer view on my investments.

Calvin, well no need to be sorry about it.. cant avoid it if there's a fundamental shifts happening. A good business will have to adapt to changes that surely will happen.

I'd expected the new customer to cushion the drop in SLR abit, and for the SLR to have a gradual 10-20% drop over the coming quarters, seems like nikon and canon wants to clear out old inventory asap and replace with brand new models.

Well it's definitely clear now that notion have the excess capacity, can they get more new customers in to diversify themselves now? TRW a good step, but volume unfortunately too low... just a net increase of abt 2.5 mil contributed by TRW per Q currently..

surprising big drop in camera sales! not good. need to review my position on it d.

Im just talking fundamentals here...

JCY 4 straight quarters of losses. -3.04 EPS
NAPS of 0.53 cents.
Dividend both 1 cent

Notion
4Q EPS of 8.13 cents
NAPS of 1.19
Dividend both 1 cent

Again, as I have said, I'm really interested to see how JCY justify its current valuations, and if it's really based on fundamentals, then I'm pretty sure notion will gain accordingly too.

Ok, i'll spend more time on this as I want to know if there's any direct correlation between JCY n Notion(HDD) sales too
JCY's sales for the pass 4 Q

376824 > 401424 > 401690 > 414354

In terms of QoQ % changes that'll be
6.52% gain (401424/376824), no change (401690/401424), 3.15% gain (414354/401690)

Notion's past 4 Q sales for HDD only (but not sure how much the fire case will have impacted the figures.. just go ahead anyway)
17 > 19.9 > 20.9 > 21.2

17% gain (19.9/17 this QoQ result may not be acccurate due to notion fire in 1st q) > 5% > 1.4%

JCY QoQ % wise.
6.52 > 0% > 3.15%

Notion QoQ %
17% > 5% > 1.4%

Ok, figure is interesting I have to say, no direct correlation.
Let's see how it goes then...