Insane first few minutes... :)
Yeah.. Next q will b profitable. Assuming that the forex has topped, I really don't expect USD to jump another 10% ba.. Actually USD dropped a bit up until now... So possible may even have m2m gain next q.

Sales is a bit concern though...

Their dubai operation is really dragging the co earnings down... :( wonder what they can do to turn it around? Offering lower prices to gain market share? It's been a couple year d I think since their dubai starter operations.

Hehe.. cutie, I think you posted before JCY dropped just now :P hope you dont mean follow JCY drop when the shark finish pump and start dump..

Serious reversal on the afternoon session

to be honest, I'd prefer if their fundamentels is stronger.
Can't really count of USD to RM being in such a good condition for long...

Not sure why they not willing to get into other product segments, or manufacture a wider variety of goods.
I think their machine utilization rate is still low, and they didn't properly replace the sales lost from SLR entirely..

there's no renewed hedging... afaik la.
All until now it's stated clearly Q after Q, it went from over 250m in hedging, until now finally outstanding 100m hedging.

Every Q, you see a deduction of the hedging(settlement) amount between 20-30m one...
This 100m hedge is still part of their old 300m (kinda insane) hedge contracts, that have not fully settled/matured.

So this Q, you will need to be prepared for a M2M loss of 10-13m, how much their profit can offset this loss, cant say for certain, but it's too big a M2M loss for them to be profitable this Q that's for sure.

anyway, by this friday we should know result d... let's hope for the best

B11. DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Type of derivatives Notional Value Fair Value as at 30.06.2015 as at 30.06.2015
Assets / (Liabilities)
RM’000 RM’000
Foreign Currency Hedging Contracts
-Less than 1 year 83,420 (8,760)
-1 year to 2 years 14,882 (2,153)
TOTAL _98,302 (10,913)

Anyway, summary even after 1 year, there's still 14m of hedging to go...
U need to read what the TCF say, they say 'majority of hedging will expire in may' not ALL hedging.

cutie... read page 10, B11 of notion's last Q report..
:)

i think some ppl are too optimistic of this Q's result especially the talk abt dividends... it's really too soon.

QoQ, USD rised 16%, at outstanding hedging of 100m, M2M loss is around 13-15m, this is almost certainly to be confirmed.

I'll still say it's more likely that a loss will be coming this Q, around -5 to -1m depending on how much their revenue increased

aih.. 46.5 2k Q kena throw by shark :(

47, start to see strong selling pressure

Up until now, we have not see strong selling pressure... until the seller really throws, we won't know how strong the buyer can support or not

Or when Q result disappoints, then the party will be over

Dont so optimistic :) it all depends on when the shark decide to throw.

how u know hdd up, camera up, auto flat?

Hope no one here follow TCF to cut loss back then..

Still early to say, if no good quarter result, it may still fall back and the rise is not permanent. Think we still need to wait until end of this week/early next week to get a clearer picture.

In terms of probability, yes it seems that it's our assumption has a higher chance of being correct now, it still could be wrong, but based on what we're seeing now in the market, chances is more and more that our guess is correct back then.

Still early, lets give it 1 more week to see how strong the holders are and we can confirm then. But yes, so far tcf's sale pattern is as predicted so far. Hope no one followed him to cut loss ba.

35/36 is only possible if tcf throw another 3-4 million share. It's possible he's starting to accumulate now d. By next week we can determine if he's really selling his shares to ikan bilis n exit d company or if he just sell to force other ppl sell to him at lower price to increase his shareholding..

I'm still here, sold for what woh seriously...
I'll buy in more if it hits at 35/36

Yeah.. From what I know, finance dept is directly under tcf control. During bad times infighting will get worst of course, every mistake will be amplified used to put blame. Let's see how it goes then now.. Will they bring in an external chairman? Unlikely right?

There's no way he can continue as chairman with 0 shares right. Assuming he dumps till all gone.

Bro blackout, if we can time the bottom, we'll retire in one year d :)

Have to take the good with the bad loh...
Good is, as you say he can openly dump and it's still didn't crash...

Don't feel like wanna talk too much liaw.. but it's not too gloomy I guess. 2 more weeks and he'll finished selling all d..

It is rather unexpected... do you feel the other directors want him to be responsible or something?

but do we know if the 15 are unique buyers? I'm not sure on cimb itrade though to be honest.
Anyway, with this latest round, it's almost certain tcf will exit as chairman by the next round of AGM d. Do you agree?

There's a lot of investor who blamed the BOD over the silver, hedging and hp business, so... as I say, maybe a new chairman is not a bad thing in itself, refocus the management direction..

It's very very easy to see what's happening...

That day, 2.7m sold from TCF, total volume is 2.8m
If we take TCF out...
0.1m 'IKAN BILIS' sellers.

So, if we assume the 2.7m buyers who bought TCF share is not a related party....
The demand is 2.7m buyer vs 0.1m seller.

If you're a buyer who wants to accumulate 2.7m Notion shares, and you have no idea TCF is selling, and there's only 0.1m seller.... what will happen?

I'm sure a really innocent buyer with 2.7m shares intention, will easily buy up the price right? especially only have 0.1m ikan bilis willing to sell.

If i want to collect 2.7m shares from open market, without knowing tcf will sell, easily the price will rocket right?

Just some common sense, can see what's going on :(

The 1 million Q at 40.5 is gone also.... just parked by tcf/etc etc to scare other ppl into que-ing in lower price ba

Anyway, I think we speak too much some ppl unhappy also, all the ayam2, ayam4 account who suddenly joined, their posting record, just 1 post only.. lol
Maybe they dont want us to ask ppl hold.. :(

Think he's doing this to force the weak sellers out... see today's volume is good. if tcf didn't push it down to 37, they wont be able to accumulate from 37-39.5 now...

Too bad I can't benefit from this round :(
But at least i'm not selling out to benefit them too.. hope no one cut loss at 37.5/37 ba...

Anyway, as an invested party before all these 'fireworks' i don't see much point selling and firming up your losses, unless based on all the information available to you, you decide the company will be worst in the future.

Also, it's very interesting that there's NO ONE SELLING even with the panic/substantial selling from a directory..
TCF sold 2.7m, total volume is 2.8m only 0.1m follow him...
This is very good indicator of the holding power of existing shareholders.

I reverse the question back to you... in such an environment where no one's selling, anyone who's trying to get substantial shareholding will easily push the price up.

Let's see how it goes... to be honest, i much prefer it stable at 40 cent and slow and easy up or down.

I'm not in position to add more in this price range for now.. so no benefit to me either way... see if it drops to 35, i may re-balance my portfolio a bit to add more

He's a director, he still need to update

honestly, i didn't expect this type of 'excitement' when i planned my purchase...

It's never a good news if the directors actively trade their shares, I'll have to take note of this in the future. But too late already~~

Y suddenly so many ppl interest in notion too? :S

another 2 million sold today I think...
kakashit, of course that's good for those not buy in yet. we're already in the boat, and is assessing what's best for us :P

But the problem with sharks is, you don't know what's their strategy... same with when a share is being goreng-ed up... you can sell too early, or you miss boat if your TP is lower than the sharks max price...

You can q 35, but we won't know what's the TP they have in mind. I guess TCF won't act without informing other directors, also, it's not gonna be good if he pushed it too low too... Generally, that's the way these family owned businesses operate la, unless they really have a big dulan argument, and TCF don't care at all anymore.


I'll dip in a bit more if it did hit 35.

the price movement pattern will show what's going on.

Anyway, not much time already, at most they can sustain this for 2-3 more weeks.

Insider information can be used to trick people too.. If you assume he sold yesterday, to give impression of bad news. (Notice how fast he file his submission to bursa) some ppl may follow him to sell today... and he'll quietly sapu up.

If his actions prove anything, it proves that there's NO SELLERS... even with yesterday's heavy selling. He sold 4m, total volume 4.25m

This is also noticed from the few weeks trading patterns, (exception to the days he sold) there's just no one else willing to dump into the buy Q at all. If anyone who want to accumulate a big volume from the open market will easily drive the price up..

He sold about 9.2m shares in total, but in the same period, 13.748m total volume. Assume some ikan bilis innocently put in buy Q at that time total 2m (RM800k already, not considered so ikan bilis anymore...)

If the sales action is designed to force ikan bilis to sell to him, he could have a net increase of 2m shares, or more, depending on who will follow him sale this week too.

TCF sold 4 million shares today, compared with total volume 4.25m shares.
95% volume is just from him alone....

You can read back his transaction history to understand his style more.
And yes, from his action, it's like he's purposely force selling it down.

Also, why didn't he sell any at the two times it reached 48 cents previously?

Quite aggressive sale down... aih.

>.< I dont cut loss. lol

Which may not be a bad thing, if he really lost the motivation or can't contribute anymore

Yeah... seems like he is throwing again, TCF exiting for real? We may well have a new chairman by the next AGM if this goes on.

Will try to agm definitely if I could.

I'm top 50 shld have my name, lol.

For one thing, I'm glad they cut loss on d phone business. At least they still know that's d best thing to do. I've seen some company try to enter retail with a rebranded product, throw millions in inventory, hire a sales n marketing team, keep the sales n marketing team for a year b4 giving up. That's one of the worst case scenario that I was afraid notion will step into.. It'll b millions more losses if that's d case.

I don't mind tcf exiting if he really loss the battle to improve the business d... Let someone else take the helm, n puah for the needed reform, if I can c the opportunity, I'm sure someone else who is at CEO level quality can c to turnaround it.

The good thing is, the shares qty is not much, and if they want to improve the share price/eps there's a lot of lubang.
1) debt is very low now, in 3q I think they will b debt free. Interest savings alone will add a bit to the EPS.
2) just a 30% reduction in inventory losses can lead to a million+ savings which again is a big impact to EPS due to smaller shares issued.
3) director pay cut? Again just 1m total cut per annum for all directors
4) sales growth
5) they consolidating their factory from 2 to 1, hope they can gain some process efficiency gains from the consolidation.
6) the net interest gain from not renting old factory after a year.

All in, a lot of lubang that they can get a few millions more earning per year from. Its a much btr company to b a CEO, because there's a lot of possible n achievable rooms for improvement of vs 1mdb for example...

Yeah, tcf was printed in focus newspaper a lot months back as one of the highest paid loss making director. Although YoY his pay is cut la. That's the risk of buying into a family controlled business... I will try to make time to the next agm as well :) if I'm still in the boat by then. Shld b 5-6mths later right?

Also I don't think the directors suddenly just become stupid n incapable, after a good track record for many years... To sell at 37-40 will mean its suddenly run by morons which is definitely overstatement. Investors shld expect btr results, but need to b calm abt it as well. They were successful diversifying from HDD only to HDD+SLR, I think it's clear that they should replicate their SLR entry success with TRW+Continental. To not do this, is criminal really..

Also for auto industry, new players will have a harder time to get in due to the quality/safety issues too. It's a good stable industry if they can get qualified. I will put all effort there really...