What I want to see from Notion this Q is significant reduction in their inventory writeoff, forex gain should counter forex loss...

So, coming Q results,
Forex nett, we'll see similar forex position, maybe slight -1m loss

Inventory writeoff losses,
At least 500k less (phone writeoff is one off)
I also want to see continuous QoQoQ improvements in Inventory writeoff reduction too.

Tax,
Won't have another 8m tax, maybe slight +ve to -ve tax too... think the provision is over already from prior Q's 8m tax provision.


Those are the PROS.

These should be the CONS.
HDD may only +5% sales QoQ
SLR.... this is the unknown, but I do expect it to drop between 2nd and 3rd Q figures ba. (Although in the prior Q report they mentioned it's possible to maintain their sales here.... which would be excellent if that's true)
Auto, 5-10% increase.

Anyway, that's what I expect ba...

Have to wait next round... previously only USD rise, and the other currency didn't rise. and they already hedge USD. So they get the loss from USD, but no gain from other currencies.

But this time, all currency rise against RM, so we should see much better result.
They will still get M2M loss for their USD hedges, but this time will be covered with realised gains from other currencies.

After this Q over, i think their outstanding USD hedge is at 60-80m and MTM at 4.40/4.50 by tomorrow. From which on.... I really dont think USD will continue appreciate ba. It's almost unthinkable if USD goes to 4.80 to trigger another significant M2M loss for notion.

If USD drop back after the 4.40 M2M, there's gonna be some M2M gains then...

Yeah, agreed, i'm speaking for those already in the boat la.... realizing the lost at around 40 cents don't make much sense at this point it seems.

Granted, unless the fundamentals really match what we expect it next Q, i'm holding back from buying more too. I think that's the only catalyst to push it up, other than that, got CIPA results in a few days.....

Still, seems rather odd... the 1 week of trading days before his disposal, 'sellers' totally no Q already. There's just no sellers anymore in the period b4 tcf sold.
(the 3 million strong interested buyer, could have easily buy it up to 48 cents) IF he wants to accumulate, and IF he doesn't know a willing seller is gonna throw.
If the 3 million 'buyer' just buy a day or 2 earlier, the price will move up already.
Similarly, the sell Q also seems too convenient as well.

There is something that supports a prearranged sales, to
1) drive the price down, 2) force others to panic sell.
Insider can use his knowledge to mess with us in two ways, buy when he know a bad quarter is gonna come and then (sell with 3rd party), or sell when he knows a good quarter is coming and (buy with 3rd party).


Although, generally, yes I do agree it's not good news that this is happening.

The volume and price action will proof if that's indeed the case or not.

Also from buyer perspective, if u want to build 3.3m position in notion, y that day only buy? If buyer don't have any information too, u would think he buy up notion price to 44 d. Few days ago it was 43.5 already.

Nexttrade n kenanga asking to avoid notion. Most ppl also avoid notion, even me bullish also start to question myself a bit, if right or wrong, Lol... So who will put buy q @40-40.5 of 3.3m..... Unlikely that yesterday ikan bilis can fight tcf sale qq I think.

Besides the 3-10 of us here who is still bullish on this boat.... Who else will q 3.3m for notion at 40-40.5 cents anyway.. Lol. All also scare notion.

Arranged sales is likely happened yesterday, few reasons.
Back then even no director selling, it break down to 38-39 on normal volume.

Now u tell me a single seller with 2.25 million shares continue throw full day can't break 395? If buyer really is not prepared, it should break 38.5 with suuch sell volume.

News of tcf sale is out, let's see the buyers at 40, 40.5 how well their holding power too.. If they strong holder, prearranged sales is most likely scenario..

If further throw stock to 35, tcf exit is almost confirmed then... Dunno good or bad

Bad q is least likely to happen, if u know where to look for d info. Auto shld b on uptrend (+10%), due to good car sales in Europe.
SLR can wait 1 week for cipa statistics, HDD wd n Seagate projection is for slight increase, ard 5%

3 scenario, in fight that leads to tcf exit?
Prearranged sales to trap ikan bilis.
Real bad quarter coming up.

Possible for infighting actually. I'm sure there will b some disagreement on d silver n phone losses, especially if these were tcf projects. Add in d forex losses some more. I would not b happy if all d hard work is lost on 3 projects n cause d share price to tank.

When did you Q for 40? 40 cents have been completely sold off for a lot of times d :)
Don't think you Q at 40 loh. I'm sure you will match if you did.

However, it's true that if you follow TCF's previous transactions. (He bought both shares and warrants) you will go to holland. He was buying previously as well, when subsequently we know that there's no fundamental to support his buying decision.

Let's just stick to the fundamentals, directors announcing their shareholding can be used to guide us to a certain way of thinking if we just follow blindly.
They can BUY when a bad result is coming, you follow him u lose money.
They can also SELL when a good result is coming, again you follow him, also you lose money.

The shares sold is held under his wife name though.... is she the one selling? Mmmm... gonna be really testing your holding power here now.

Mmm, TCF sold 2m shares today, that explains one part of the heavy volume.
Reminds me of a posting someone else made abt the last AGM and no one suggest for TCF to be renominated as chairman.
Wondering if the other major shareholders is making him responsible for the losses?
Not good news in one way, since he's selling.
Maybe good news in another way, if that'll mean eventually someone else become the chairman...

Volume dont seem normal, good chance to pick up, make the shark put the effort and we benefit from it :)

no one can tell for certain, but probability, yes it should be better.
even with the QA issues, GP margin % is healthy at 25% and have been increasing.

Couple of weeks ago, I also purposely try to find problem with the co, just to balance my optimistic nature, and I don't see any problem too, even when I'm purposely trying to find fault.

QoQ for the past 8 Qs, overall cost of sales have not been increasing as fast as revenue. The revenue to cost of sales ratio is actually increasing, which is a good thing. This is inclusive of the QA problems they're having now ya... so even if they r really stupid and no improvement in QA issues, it's still relatively healthy margins.

Don't want to influence other people view too much, do your own homework, with your own view, and see if it matches mine. If you come to the same conclusion as me, means we're seeing the right thing.

Sharing of knowledge/analysis is better, as the probability of all of us getting it wrong is less.

Watch the volume, and you will see patterns... the 40 cents buyers are clever, purposely q-ing in small 100-200-300 batch...
always look like it will break 40 cents, but never break one.

if you assume a normal day, without shark ready to accumulate at 40cents, such a big sell volume on a 'unplanned without proper preparation day' would have broke it to 38 cents if not lower.

looks like the buyers have advanced information, and have already set their purchasing decision in advance.

The people who are selling at 40 cent now will 99% be selling at a loss. Think about it logically.... the people who are buying and matching the 40cents have little to no risk. Sellers are transferring $ to buyers literally...

Always remember in the share game, when you cut loss, someone else will gain.

just let the shark play their game, and watch on the sideline... don't get caught by desire to move.

Previously i mentioned i dont trust the 'good buy volume' similarly, I dont trust the 'bad sell volume' as well. I'm not just biased on the bad news ya.

i've been watching the volume pattern for a while, i think someone is trying to manipulate the share again. you can read up my post previously when i noticed a sell Q of 2k is almost immediately matched by a buy q of 2k as well.

More likely, someone is creating the environment to force ppl to sell.
after the initial wave of 2k, 2k sold, you can see the small sellers are lining up to sell.

Let's wait for the CIPA results next couple weeks. I think camera quality issues maybe less, so if SLR sales pick up back then that's good.
Also, I really do expect them to have a QA related initiative/project to be ongoing d and I am expecting them to have improvement in the next Q, and to continue improve in terms of quality QoQ... It'll really be stupid and alarming if they're burning money through QA related issues.

Forex wise, I think USD will drop back a bit, now that they don't have the interest rate rise for now.. M2M losses will be lesser than what we expect, if it drops to 4.00 to RM

But it need to have better fundamental improvement in the next Q. Getting a new customer is a priority and improving the utilizations.

Forex m2m, yeah its known they will get hit one more round next q. But this time, the position is smaller(although still big at abt 90m) 90m 10% loss, 9m. But as RM weakened against all currency, means their revenue of abt 60m will gain 10% too... A bit cushion la.

QA issues, I'm expecting improvement in this n next Q result.
All in, as I've said.. I do believe d good result will b 6months later I'll b honest. Good time to accumulate from others in this 3-6months

Quality issues I'm not too worried of. It's a technical prb, n solution is simple. There's millions n millions of HDD made, n its something someone else has done n is still doing successfully..
Techinal stuff is notion strength I believe, their losses n mistake is all in d none technical areas. Forex, silver, HP...

We all base our decision on what we know, what we predict n what we feel.
Unless we treat their QA manager for lunch n ask his plans. :)

Wanna hear what u guys think as well. Dont want to stuck with own story/bubble too..

Y u think that blackout?

accumulated some more too, selling others to buy more ard 395-405 myself too.

sellers still believe can buy back at 395, 400, 405...... need 1 full week for price not to touch this 3 levels, otherwise, hard to break 44.... 44, 48 two key resistance now.

Need to see them have 1) holding power or not during uptrend, 2) got any cut losser or not among the group. Investor who dont know why they buy will not be able to rise it much....

So far 'it seems' good. I like the slow and controlled volume this couple days.

Good volume, but some seems like prearranged deals, Like 1 guy put sell at 1500 lots, then 1 guy will buy 1500 lots @ 0.425 cents. I don't really trust the volume when you see such things happening... so coincidence meh..

Anyway, there was good slow accumulation at 42... let's see how far it can go this time.

Good good good! lol

Good to know I'm in good company as well :) let's make some good money here together.

anyway, today's seems got some good volume, so much for my 41 cent sold yesterday.. lol.
Good time to be building a solid uptrend now...

Next agm gonna b like 5-6mths away.... Really want to ask them abt this, also. On their internal risk control, they can hedge, but they must have internal control in place to prevent another 200million hedge d.. Really want to bring this issues up

We need to evaluate their performance in managing their QA reject rates... Just 20% improvement there could b a million saved per q.

U got d chance to speak with d directors b4? Anon? There is some capex on new machinery this last two Q. I wonder r they buying new cnc machines that is more precise to reduce their rework/inventory QA issues? If I'm a director there, improvement in d rejection rates will b a big kpi for me. They mentioned they have QA prb with stringent requirements of d antidisc they make..

Well, important for it to start consolidating around 42-44 cent d. Msian investors only chase green and throw red.. lol, i'll be swimming around 39-40... almost certain can make some money if matched. Just sold some at 410 today for my 395 200lots yesterday.. i'm guilty! lol.

dont understand the selling pressure though.... Q result still not good enough for ppl to hold longer i guess :/ or the day players who wants to get a few % gain exiting

Well, another good news just confirmed. SLR lense sales have just grown for two months in a row, both of which is 5% more over similar month in past year.
Changeable lense camera sales increased by 13%, 20%.

Another step in the right direction. This is massive, as I think their profit margin is highest from their camera businesses, compared with the rest.

my holdings is significant, but not top 30 level. top 60 or 100 got ba. lol

Wah.... as of AR 2014, the smallest 30th shareholder is 830k units thats about RM320k

You're the big shark attacking yesterday then! Lol

War starting again! The next breakout is crucial if and when it happens

Same pattern will happen again, accumulate and go up to 48+... but with each buy and sell cycle, i'm expecting higher highs, and higher lows as it goes up. Not likely it will fall back to 40-42 again if indeed another 3+million volume day happen.

Big volume in play today again, got big shark eating at 40, share transfer from weak to stronger hand happening

If next q is good 60-70 cents is achievable in 4 months d... Along d way we can get more information to improve our q prediction.

That will be the day normal investors dare to buy n hold longer.... Right now only fools like us buy n hold. Lol

Hard to say... Near term we may be fools.. But like u, I have buy but sold turnaround companies too early few times. Previously I cut loss, then i never cut loss, then take profit 5% then train to 10% n now I'm aiming for 20-30+% gains before sell. A few of my previous stocks hit 100% gain over time too... In my experience, stocks with great NAPS and profitable with EPS will definitely shoot back up very fast.. This q is d first step, next q is crucial for this stock breaking 50cents. Also next q will be much clearer in earning projection/visibility with one off gain/losses finally gone. If the Q there is good, I think kenanga will upgrade it.

T+3er from Friday cutting loss, force selling ^^

Abt 400k from that is the handphone units I guess, if not 500k in total.
They have been struggling with their QA on this aspect, quite wasteful and I believe they have made improving their reject rates a priority too.
Don't say getting new customers la, if they can cut the losses there by 20%, that's 1.4m per year d.
Internal and engineering issues, should be solvable.