The good thing is, the shares qty is not much, and if they want to improve the share price/eps there's a lot of lubang.
1) debt is very low now, in 3q I think they will b debt free. Interest savings alone will add a bit to the EPS.
2) just a 30% reduction in inventory losses can lead to a million+ savings which again is a big impact to EPS due to smaller shares issued.
3) director pay cut? Again just 1m total cut per annum for all directors
4) sales growth
5) they consolidating their factory from 2 to 1, hope they can gain some process efficiency gains from the consolidation.
6) the net interest gain from not renting old factory after a year.

All in, a lot of lubang that they can get a few millions more earning per year from. Its a much btr company to b a CEO, because there's a lot of possible n achievable rooms for improvement of vs 1mdb for example...

Yeah, tcf was printed in focus newspaper a lot months back as one of the highest paid loss making director. Although YoY his pay is cut la. That's the risk of buying into a family controlled business... I will try to make time to the next agm as well :) if I'm still in the boat by then. Shld b 5-6mths later right?

Also I don't think the directors suddenly just become stupid n incapable, after a good track record for many years... To sell at 37-40 will mean its suddenly run by morons which is definitely overstatement. Investors shld expect btr results, but need to b calm abt it as well. They were successful diversifying from HDD only to HDD+SLR, I think it's clear that they should replicate their SLR entry success with TRW+Continental. To not do this, is criminal really..

Also for auto industry, new players will have a harder time to get in due to the quality/safety issues too. It's a good stable industry if they can get qualified. I will put all effort there really...

The opportunity is there definitely, but they really need to stay focused n start executing properly. Glad they ditched the phone business.. It'll really distract them from the core if they insist to continue on.. Imagine if the directors continue to spend 1-2 hours of their time on meeting in regards to the HP business.. That's like how many thousands lost already.

I get the feel they got arrogant with their good record, n fall back/lost motivation to push on. Hope this is a wake up call for them.. I'm just putting an idea, if I'm the mngt there, I would aggressively tap into TRW n continental account. Both is in the auto industry which have a lot of products that can be cnc machined

I'm not too optimistic on SLR though, hope they can diversify n b more aggressive with new products, industries.

Automotive and EBS is a sunrise sector, I think one problem with notion is that they're slow to change... not tackling new projects fast enough

TRW + Continental + Bosch accounts for more than 80% of the market share for braking systems, and actually other components in an automobile too. With just TRW+Continental, that's over 50% market share definitely.

The company has half a foot into a very very big market share, but they're not pushing into TRW/Continental aggressively enough! They should aim to grow their product portfolio with TRW/Continental to more and more components. If they push for more sales, across more products just from these 2, there's plenty of business to achieve already.

Just wondering, TPPA agreement maybe beneficial for Notion in some way?

even if he is trying to force a panic sell, the 'panic' is not that much... yet.

Think of it another way, even with him selling 2.6m, you can see total volume for past 3 days is abt 3.1m, which does shows lack of sellers from other holders.

Another disposal... seems like tcf is exiting.

Why u guys believe got goreng...?

SLR sales for August is not good. Dunno how much it'll impact September month Notion sales. www.cipa.jp you can review yourself.

Cipa's result not so good :(

What I want to see from Notion this Q is significant reduction in their inventory writeoff, forex gain should counter forex loss...

So, coming Q results,
Forex nett, we'll see similar forex position, maybe slight -1m loss

Inventory writeoff losses,
At least 500k less (phone writeoff is one off)
I also want to see continuous QoQoQ improvements in Inventory writeoff reduction too.

Tax,
Won't have another 8m tax, maybe slight +ve to -ve tax too... think the provision is over already from prior Q's 8m tax provision.


Those are the PROS.

These should be the CONS.
HDD may only +5% sales QoQ
SLR.... this is the unknown, but I do expect it to drop between 2nd and 3rd Q figures ba. (Although in the prior Q report they mentioned it's possible to maintain their sales here.... which would be excellent if that's true)
Auto, 5-10% increase.

Anyway, that's what I expect ba...

Have to wait next round... previously only USD rise, and the other currency didn't rise. and they already hedge USD. So they get the loss from USD, but no gain from other currencies.

But this time, all currency rise against RM, so we should see much better result.
They will still get M2M loss for their USD hedges, but this time will be covered with realised gains from other currencies.

After this Q over, i think their outstanding USD hedge is at 60-80m and MTM at 4.40/4.50 by tomorrow. From which on.... I really dont think USD will continue appreciate ba. It's almost unthinkable if USD goes to 4.80 to trigger another significant M2M loss for notion.

If USD drop back after the 4.40 M2M, there's gonna be some M2M gains then...

Yeah, agreed, i'm speaking for those already in the boat la.... realizing the lost at around 40 cents don't make much sense at this point it seems.

Granted, unless the fundamentals really match what we expect it next Q, i'm holding back from buying more too. I think that's the only catalyst to push it up, other than that, got CIPA results in a few days.....

Still, seems rather odd... the 1 week of trading days before his disposal, 'sellers' totally no Q already. There's just no sellers anymore in the period b4 tcf sold.
(the 3 million strong interested buyer, could have easily buy it up to 48 cents) IF he wants to accumulate, and IF he doesn't know a willing seller is gonna throw.
If the 3 million 'buyer' just buy a day or 2 earlier, the price will move up already.
Similarly, the sell Q also seems too convenient as well.

There is something that supports a prearranged sales, to
1) drive the price down, 2) force others to panic sell.
Insider can use his knowledge to mess with us in two ways, buy when he know a bad quarter is gonna come and then (sell with 3rd party), or sell when he knows a good quarter is coming and (buy with 3rd party).


Although, generally, yes I do agree it's not good news that this is happening.

The volume and price action will proof if that's indeed the case or not.

Also from buyer perspective, if u want to build 3.3m position in notion, y that day only buy? If buyer don't have any information too, u would think he buy up notion price to 44 d. Few days ago it was 43.5 already.

Nexttrade n kenanga asking to avoid notion. Most ppl also avoid notion, even me bullish also start to question myself a bit, if right or wrong, Lol... So who will put buy q @40-40.5 of 3.3m..... Unlikely that yesterday ikan bilis can fight tcf sale qq I think.

Besides the 3-10 of us here who is still bullish on this boat.... Who else will q 3.3m for notion at 40-40.5 cents anyway.. Lol. All also scare notion.

Arranged sales is likely happened yesterday, few reasons.
Back then even no director selling, it break down to 38-39 on normal volume.

Now u tell me a single seller with 2.25 million shares continue throw full day can't break 395? If buyer really is not prepared, it should break 38.5 with suuch sell volume.

News of tcf sale is out, let's see the buyers at 40, 40.5 how well their holding power too.. If they strong holder, prearranged sales is most likely scenario..

If further throw stock to 35, tcf exit is almost confirmed then... Dunno good or bad

Bad q is least likely to happen, if u know where to look for d info. Auto shld b on uptrend (+10%), due to good car sales in Europe.
SLR can wait 1 week for cipa statistics, HDD wd n Seagate projection is for slight increase, ard 5%

3 scenario, in fight that leads to tcf exit?
Prearranged sales to trap ikan bilis.
Real bad quarter coming up.

Possible for infighting actually. I'm sure there will b some disagreement on d silver n phone losses, especially if these were tcf projects. Add in d forex losses some more. I would not b happy if all d hard work is lost on 3 projects n cause d share price to tank.

When did you Q for 40? 40 cents have been completely sold off for a lot of times d :)
Don't think you Q at 40 loh. I'm sure you will match if you did.

However, it's true that if you follow TCF's previous transactions. (He bought both shares and warrants) you will go to holland. He was buying previously as well, when subsequently we know that there's no fundamental to support his buying decision.

Let's just stick to the fundamentals, directors announcing their shareholding can be used to guide us to a certain way of thinking if we just follow blindly.
They can BUY when a bad result is coming, you follow him u lose money.
They can also SELL when a good result is coming, again you follow him, also you lose money.

The shares sold is held under his wife name though.... is she the one selling? Mmmm... gonna be really testing your holding power here now.

Mmm, TCF sold 2m shares today, that explains one part of the heavy volume.
Reminds me of a posting someone else made abt the last AGM and no one suggest for TCF to be renominated as chairman.
Wondering if the other major shareholders is making him responsible for the losses?
Not good news in one way, since he's selling.
Maybe good news in another way, if that'll mean eventually someone else become the chairman...

Volume dont seem normal, good chance to pick up, make the shark put the effort and we benefit from it :)

no one can tell for certain, but probability, yes it should be better.
even with the QA issues, GP margin % is healthy at 25% and have been increasing.

Couple of weeks ago, I also purposely try to find problem with the co, just to balance my optimistic nature, and I don't see any problem too, even when I'm purposely trying to find fault.

QoQ for the past 8 Qs, overall cost of sales have not been increasing as fast as revenue. The revenue to cost of sales ratio is actually increasing, which is a good thing. This is inclusive of the QA problems they're having now ya... so even if they r really stupid and no improvement in QA issues, it's still relatively healthy margins.

Don't want to influence other people view too much, do your own homework, with your own view, and see if it matches mine. If you come to the same conclusion as me, means we're seeing the right thing.

Sharing of knowledge/analysis is better, as the probability of all of us getting it wrong is less.

Watch the volume, and you will see patterns... the 40 cents buyers are clever, purposely q-ing in small 100-200-300 batch...
always look like it will break 40 cents, but never break one.

if you assume a normal day, without shark ready to accumulate at 40cents, such a big sell volume on a 'unplanned without proper preparation day' would have broke it to 38 cents if not lower.

looks like the buyers have advanced information, and have already set their purchasing decision in advance.

The people who are selling at 40 cent now will 99% be selling at a loss. Think about it logically.... the people who are buying and matching the 40cents have little to no risk. Sellers are transferring $ to buyers literally...

Always remember in the share game, when you cut loss, someone else will gain.

just let the shark play their game, and watch on the sideline... don't get caught by desire to move.

Previously i mentioned i dont trust the 'good buy volume' similarly, I dont trust the 'bad sell volume' as well. I'm not just biased on the bad news ya.

i've been watching the volume pattern for a while, i think someone is trying to manipulate the share again. you can read up my post previously when i noticed a sell Q of 2k is almost immediately matched by a buy q of 2k as well.

More likely, someone is creating the environment to force ppl to sell.
after the initial wave of 2k, 2k sold, you can see the small sellers are lining up to sell.

Let's wait for the CIPA results next couple weeks. I think camera quality issues maybe less, so if SLR sales pick up back then that's good.
Also, I really do expect them to have a QA related initiative/project to be ongoing d and I am expecting them to have improvement in the next Q, and to continue improve in terms of quality QoQ... It'll really be stupid and alarming if they're burning money through QA related issues.

Forex wise, I think USD will drop back a bit, now that they don't have the interest rate rise for now.. M2M losses will be lesser than what we expect, if it drops to 4.00 to RM

But it need to have better fundamental improvement in the next Q. Getting a new customer is a priority and improving the utilizations.

Forex m2m, yeah its known they will get hit one more round next q. But this time, the position is smaller(although still big at abt 90m) 90m 10% loss, 9m. But as RM weakened against all currency, means their revenue of abt 60m will gain 10% too... A bit cushion la.

QA issues, I'm expecting improvement in this n next Q result.
All in, as I've said.. I do believe d good result will b 6months later I'll b honest. Good time to accumulate from others in this 3-6months

Quality issues I'm not too worried of. It's a technical prb, n solution is simple. There's millions n millions of HDD made, n its something someone else has done n is still doing successfully..
Techinal stuff is notion strength I believe, their losses n mistake is all in d none technical areas. Forex, silver, HP...

We all base our decision on what we know, what we predict n what we feel.
Unless we treat their QA manager for lunch n ask his plans. :)

Wanna hear what u guys think as well. Dont want to stuck with own story/bubble too..

Y u think that blackout?

accumulated some more too, selling others to buy more ard 395-405 myself too.

sellers still believe can buy back at 395, 400, 405...... need 1 full week for price not to touch this 3 levels, otherwise, hard to break 44.... 44, 48 two key resistance now.

Need to see them have 1) holding power or not during uptrend, 2) got any cut losser or not among the group. Investor who dont know why they buy will not be able to rise it much....

So far 'it seems' good. I like the slow and controlled volume this couple days.

Good volume, but some seems like prearranged deals, Like 1 guy put sell at 1500 lots, then 1 guy will buy 1500 lots @ 0.425 cents. I don't really trust the volume when you see such things happening... so coincidence meh..

Anyway, there was good slow accumulation at 42... let's see how far it can go this time.

Good good good! lol

Good to know I'm in good company as well :) let's make some good money here together.

anyway, today's seems got some good volume, so much for my 41 cent sold yesterday.. lol.
Good time to be building a solid uptrend now...

Next agm gonna b like 5-6mths away.... Really want to ask them abt this, also. On their internal risk control, they can hedge, but they must have internal control in place to prevent another 200million hedge d.. Really want to bring this issues up