T+3er from Friday cutting loss, force selling ^^

Abt 400k from that is the handphone units I guess, if not 500k in total.
They have been struggling with their QA on this aspect, quite wasteful and I believe they have made improving their reject rates a priority too.
Don't say getting new customers la, if they can cut the losses there by 20%, that's 1.4m per year d.
Internal and engineering issues, should be solvable.

Well.. I do read nexttrade, n kenanga they all normally will only push stocks that normally already uptrend. That's y kenanga will only probably upgrade notion in next q. Currently there is still some smoke, n not so easy to read for the general investors.

For example, HDD drop 2x% this Q. Is that a concern? Warning? To new comers, maybe, but if u know d pattern, HDD sales is seasonal, 2nd n 4th q is much stronger. So, expectation is HDD will at least rebound back 20%+ if not more.

SLR. This is d unexpected news with a big increase. As I may have mentioned, CIPA posted a first QoQ n YoY increases in lenses sales. Next week we will get cipa result again, n if it can maintain, then notion can easily get close to 90-100% utilization too. Especially with d HDD picking up.

Automotive, again I think this is a growth sector, especially with TRW as a customer. TRW is a 2+billion USD sales per year, if they do good job grow their acc with TRW repeat what they did when they first enter the SLR lenses business, its vv good d.. No need waste time on HP business really.. Imagine TCF waste 2 hours with HP business meeting. How many phone need to sell just to cover director fees.

The kenanga report probably killed the momentum too.. :S

Anyway, super global market route. Now fear is the main player..
may trade in this 38-42 range for a few weeks... for believers, you can take it as a chance to buy more :P

Good thing is, not so much buyers from Friday's 6m volume exited today.

I also like to buy turnaround companies :) Lets see how it goes....

From today's volume, and buying pattern, I would say a lot of confident buyers at 47 between 11-1130am

A lot of 1 buyer with 1000 lots keep replacing 47 after it got sold off from multiple smaller lots.

Seldom do technical analysis as you need to monitor it exactly as it's happening to gain useful information.

If 485 can be broken again today, we may for the first time see it touch 50 cents.
I think still got 1 more bunch of fellas taking profit at 485.

The main problem with notion is the quality of the shareholders.. a lot of speculators, sharks, and no holding power traders who are willing to cut loss. After the previous rise to 48, it drop entirely back to 38-40 cent (those who sell at 38.5.. u know who u are, and you're really just making other ppl gain at your lost) this of course gives chance for ppl to accumulate at 40, and take profit at 48 again, and once more limiting the upside.

High volume is important, but the quality of the buyers is much more important too.

First wave of profit taking already happened during the selloff from 485 back to 460. Something that must happen for a good foundation.

Good news is, a lot who buy at 40-42 have probably taken profit.
Bad news is, they didn't wait until higher price.

I would say, after two rounds of increase to 48 cents, most if not all of the 40 cent guys have already exited.

Those who are still holding after T3 will be the fundamental guys who is targetting 60cent + as TP I guess.

Happy hunting everyone tomorrow, whatever your strategy maybe~

well, their growth is very impressive. from IPO a lot will gain 3-400% i didn't really check.. but in shares, we all worry
1) buy at peak.
2) Sell at btm.. (well at least you didn't do this!)

I think every price level have its opportunity to make profit... doesn't matter if my 70cent is a mistake, i know 40 cents is a bargain.

Notion at 40cent and below is insane seller price. Even if they earn only 1 EPS per Q, that's 40 cent at 10xEPS d...
I kept average in the past few months. I wont expect a rocket up to 0.70.... there should be some chance to average down, but your strategy should fit your own investing profile..

Like i said, it depends on each as well. initially i buy at 70 cents too. but after the crash, i keep averaging down. While I don't know what's a good price to sell, I do know what's a good price to buy. That helps a bit. If I'm you, I'll probably average in at 40-42 ranges if the opportunity comes again when the price drops.

There is still a LOT of hedging.. however at ~RM30 million hedge realised per Quarter. This matches ~24-30m of HDD business per Q as well. You can say that the dollar received from Western Digital will be almost enough to go to the banks.. also, Euro and Yen gained 10% over RM too in August. This should be about enough to cover the USD M2M loss in the next Q results.

We will really only see a perfect healthy Notion 6 months later.....

The BOD just need to mind their own business, keep it at 60-70m per Q, that's perfect d.. Don't go think too big risky stuffs. Focus back on entering aerospace market which I believe is where the money is. Notion has excess capacity, and healthy margin.. can throw a bit margin to get entry to aerospace, or even to expand and get more design wins from existing customers..

actually, now someone may shoot me. (LOL) Getting a hedge at 4.2-4.3 is not too bad! Hahahaha. realistically, can RM really be at 4.2-4.3++ for the next two years+?

It should strengthen a bit really... I really doubt it'll weak until hit 4.6 per USD loh... 1% chance?

Deferred tax is not purposely charged. it's to take a hit now to ensure u have money to pay for the tax next year. This tax is on their forex M2M gain, and also RPGT.

Something like our monthly tax deduction, PCB.
What u earn for this month, is already taxed, regardless of what happens year end.

Of course, the defered tax can and will change as the profit changes in future too I think.. I need to admit I'm not too sure how to read the books at this point, too many 1 off events for my liking.
Fundamental hidden...

What is positive now.
There is plan to consolidate their factories, they mentioned they will relocate the machines on the sold factory to an existing one. I think they will rent for at most 2 years. If not only 1 year. This one is agreed, else long term selling and leasing back is not a good deal.

Fundamentals.
Camera is back. We can say a bottom is reached, and moving on, camera sales will be more or less at 18million per Q on average. I purposely took a 10% cut from this current Q's camera sales as an average for the future.

HDD. A drop in HDD sales which was not expected. A big drop too. I will assume no growth, and just maintain at 25m per Q in future.

Automotive. Again I'll assume no changes in automotive sales at 17m per Q.

Total sales, 60m per Q.
5m profit per Q.
20m profit per year.

Moving on, at a worst case scenario, I'm expecting 5m net profit per Q.
At this calculation, min TP of 10x EPS is 73 cents.

My targets for Camera, HDD and Auto above should be 'reasonable' targets, assuming no growth and no drop. And please Notion BODs, dont go jumping into new business that you have no idea of. As Richard Branson said when he created virgin coke to fight coca cola,(and of course lost badly) only enter a market if you're really able to disrupt it completely.

I may take a day off work and go to the next AGM just to tell him this. LOL. but it's a long wait i think....

It's hp business, unfortunately in this case ends up exactly as i predicted.. lol

Unfortunately, I'm right and the chairman of notion is wrong. :/ their hp business is written off at 500k loss. At least that settles it..

Eps 2.71 cent this q. Bingo guys... Not selling even for 60 cents. Lol

2.71 EPS for this Q. Bingo guys :)

30% results coming to day, 35% tomorrow, 35% monday.. lol. Let's wait n see

suddenly so many ppl chase now.. dont understand the traders go sell go buy n sell n buy

If fundamentals good, wont be able to pick back at lower price

:D this time wont sale so early anymore... lol

I mean forex wise la... overall should be a good Q. At least, should be equal to last Q's results + 12 million

No.. definitely not. Apr May months has FOREX GAIN(USD Falls after March MTM). June month has MTM again at 3.8(LOSS), overall, most probably have slight FOREX LOSS ~2-3million, depending on how many outstanding position they have at end of June.

Seems like their dubai op will take a longer time to turnaround, a bit concerning since their loss actually increased. Their China and Msian business broke even n profit just a bit though

No results today :(

Just need a good rebound from bursa + good Q result. Not worth sell at this price~~ hold on to it..

shares, it's all depend on your perspective. and your position, i average notion from 60 cents until now 47 cents. so rise a bit also, I can break even d. No one can give you exact correct or wrong view... so, still.. decide on your own, and assume all the forum posters want to con you :)

It's overall panic.. Not everyone have the same motive. Maybe some on margin accounts, especially recent increase in price up to 48 cents. I believe a lot of the new comers don't have holding power I guess. Need to wait a month more, last time only Us(harddisk) strong, now euro(automotive) n Yen(camera) also stronger. Substantial forex gain if RM continue weak against all 3 currencies

Not soon, earliest 18th. Most probably up until 25th ba.
All USD, euro n even Yen increased again RM on August. Would be an interesting quarter result 3 months later if RM maintain weakness.

4.03 to USD.
Bursa Meltdown meltdown.. all run away/sold out/cut loss?

Think selloff is done, bottom @ 0.415, not much profit to gain from future sellers at that price and below already.

I'm a very conservative guy, lets say a TP of 60 cent (PE 10), which is possible with JUST a EPS of 1.5cent per Q (6 cent per year)
There is still more for you to gain (60 cent/43-45 now) vs your risk of waiting for it to drop to 40 cent for example.

Think today a lot sell at a loss from the panic sales.

bursa dropping a lot doesnt help too. Those who bought in late will be cutting loss.
I also averaged back in early :'( buy back at 45, 43.5. Now getting somemore at 42.

If you buying notion, u need holding power... A lot of profit takers exiting.. Until d fundamental improves convincingly, all short term hot money come in n going out now.

Welcome newbies to d notion boat :) I can see most most of u don't know what ur buying into. Lol.

tomorrow if it goes up a lot or down a lot, we're gonna have a lot of postings from new comers in this thread... lol

There goes my 45 cent sales :D crazy really crazy

There was a 6 million daily volume back in april as well, that one evaporated in 1 day, and all the gains gone the next. But this time it IS closer to Q result announcement.. so, hopefully there is a positive fundamental shift la.

All it needs is some good news, and the analysts can easily put a Buy article out with TP of 60-80 cents, and it'll fly more.

Ya.. no worries, we all old timers here :)

Those guys will pump and dump, hate it when that happens :/

I actually prefer a slow and steady rise, i worry the margin/t+3 guys, + technical traders coming in and messing up the market. LOL.

Sold my 38.5 at 45, but it's a small % of my overall portfolio here.

movement too fast.. lol. No short term catalyst to prop the price.. good Q result, is 2 weeks away.

A lot of fast money coming in. Aih.. up too fast also wanna complain. Lol :)
As experienced guys, if they come in with their margins/T+3 plays, it can crash quite fast too.

Took profit for my 38.5 cent lot d. See if I get some luck in my technical trade or not :P

To the long-term guys. What do you think of today's movement?
Tempting price for some of you, maybe some even took profit d
anonymous, you sold you <=40?

Good readup as always bone. :)

Hi Johnnys.. HDD increased QoQ by a lot. You really should at least read the Quarterly results :P

1st Q 2014, HDD revenue RM19.2mil, 2nd Q 2015 RM31.7mil > 50% gain le.

Some positives in HDD (Win 10, enterprise HDD sales, Seagate new plant in png) so expect the trend to continue.
SLR.. Think it has bottomed out? And will be flat sales. (doubt it will get worse)
Automotive (This is growth market in 2 ways, by itself the brake industry will grow, due to safety regulations etc. 2ndly.. TRW is a ~20billion USD sales company per annum, if Notion can do good job, and grow their TRW account..... plenty of job for 100% machine utilization loh.. just need to execute properly.)

slow n steady... slow n steady

Yeah, lets hope so.
Quality issues is internal, and I'm quite surprised if they didn't solve it faster, since it's something under their control... Either buy better machines, replace the QA manager, change supplier if the issue is from supplier material side.

Eagerly awaiting next Q's results over the next 2 weeks... :)