great effort and data, thanks

不过不失， 不错不错

Hi Tan KW
below is my pick, sorry for late reply.

AIRASIA 30%
AAX 30%
LEONFB 15%
EMETALL 15%
SCIENTEX 10%

THANK YOU.

Hi Tan KW, i will submit before 6 Jan, Thx for the reserve seat...

haah, thx HSB,

haha, 不过不失。。。

Happy new year every one...

=D bingo! congrat every one

asdf, i am just do my estimation and take my risk, i can totally wrong...
and how u knw i am nt cheating?

tomyamGong, u can refer this http://e-thg.blogspot.my/2016/11/leonfb.html

around 3300sqm

onetonneman， MRCB land is next to bukit bintang and is housing land, is totally different case. AJI sold 30000sqm @166m to MRT2

er... orangepeel,that is just my personal prediction, not the actual price...

FYI: NEW malaysia accounting rule addapt AR PG 175/176
statements of the Company and the Group
prior to recommending them for approval
by the Board of directors. The Committee,
in the current year, reviewed only the first
three quarters of the unaudited quarterly
financial results as the fourth quarter
announcement had been dispensed with
as approved by Bursa, the approval is on
the condition that the full financial report
is announced within two months from the
close of the financial year end. The review
was to ensure that the financial reporting
and disclosures are in compliance with:
i. Provisions of the Companies Act, 1965;
ii. Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia
Securities Berhad;
iii. Applicable approved accounting
standards in Malaysia; and
iv. Other legal and regulatory requirements.

@feichs, nice sum up!! thx

valuegrowth, 是啊， 对于TF说的我基本保持信任态度， 除了时间 =D, (包括IAA, PAA, 和dual Listing)

2er4, if i tell u RM 10 are you going to kill me =D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sB4skUqNJAQ&t=2359s 你试试这个link

Batu88， the option actually is open, and not yet finalize, it might be change when the time come, since there is so many foreign investor (52%), listing in HK maybe will greatly boost AA valuation since there is not so worry on exchange loss compare to riggit. for current valuation even AA net profit cut to half, it will only PE 6-7

MY 2 CENTs

看不到吗？ 我试了没问题。。。 你再试试

as i remember the last time i experience so call "all green", follow by a dropping for whole month, i wish this time is different = =

Dear Tan KW,
i would like participate,
my stock pick as follow:
Airasia -30% @2.29
AAX -15%@0.36
Scientex -15%@6.70
SAM -15%@4.90
LEONFB -25%@0.465

i think Valuegrowth analysis is right with support of fact and figure, salute. after all, just some accounting games from AA. what i concern more is cashflow, and same like last time, actually no cash outflow at all occur on this PCS. and infact, i believe there will be net cash inflow from indonesia 2017.

well, ithk calvin just confuse the debt and Capital commitment outstanding. which mean the future order sign with airbus and GE.

haha, ya, market demand is worsen than i thk.... wish good luck for next few qtr and MRT land acquisition.

Lse2016, thx for your comment and i am flatter,
i really dunno i have such power to move Huge counter with over 10m volumn jus by single simple estimation.
anyway, my estimation on AAX is not accurate,
tht is wht i should admit
and learn from my mistake
and improve next time =D

Cheers!

其實以上分析是有很多對未來的期待, 還需要時間去證明對錯. Jay說得對, 市場是否能夠給出PE10還是一個未知數. 不過如果有給0.03cents dividend, 給個PE8的股價,其實我也很滿足了,

paperplane, you got the point, thats why no any positive contribution on Q2, wish Q3-Q4 thgs getting better.

http://www.airasia.com/my/en/about-us/ir-operating-statistics.page
最新的operating statistic都會註明飛機數,
80臺減少77臺主要是2臺通過AAC租給日本airasia, 預備明年Q1的launch.
雖然飛機數減少, 可以看到載客量, RPK都是增加的,
人手增加+員工加薪, staff cost 增加也屬正常,
不過上季度有點飆升的感覺, 不過還在接受範圍內. staff cost我是按上季度來Estimate的

this estimation main for myself, so i try to make it more conservative to provide margin of safety.

if you talk about accuracy, i should said 80m will more close to the final result, after factor in the upside of avg fare and lower staff and fuel cost

this estimation main for myself, so i try to make it more conservative to provide margin of safety.

if you talk about accuracy, i should said 450m will more close to the final result, after factor in deffer tax and Excg gain frm assosiate

hi dannytangkh, 是用美金算的, 還有maintenance也是以美金為主

for me, is a very good quarter indeed. but market might give a very different view base on the bottom line.

USD strengthen again MYR definitely is bad for AA, but not as bad as MANY investors read and feel in the financial report. other than borrowing, there is Fuel, MRO Expenses, interest which is paying in USD, which will giving pressure on AA margin. however, with good load factor and reasonable pace of expansion, i do not c the problem as bad as 1-2 years ago. actually other than exchange rate, i am quit positive on other factor.

thx for sharing, icon =D

basically i learn this format frm Icon8888, my original format is much complicated and hard to read. lets wait the operating statistic out then it will be much easier to estimate. anyway, thx for your sharing =D

ya, icon sifu, i thk u r right, i overlook this part(amt due to holding company) =D

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20160920/%E5%9B%BD%E8%83%BD%E6%97%A0%E6%B3%95%E8%BF%BD%E5%9B%9E%E6%AC%A0%E6%AC%BEbr-%E6%9F%8F%E5%8D%8E%E5%98%89%E9%92%A2%E9%93%81%E9%81%AD%E7%94%B3%E8%AF%B7%E6%B8%85%E7%9B%98/

thx Icon, some extra info wish can help your analysis:
1. base on TA Report and info after investor roadshow, Airasia "might" target inject more aircraft to AAC from current 55 -68 units.
2. base on the Qtr report, AAC latest" total equity" is only 45.9m, With ttl assets 801m and total Debt 755m
3. New appointed CEO, Stéphane Daillencourt, with 30 years exp in GE, manage leasing arm 1700 aircraft portfolio.

base on above info, and the latest p&L and balance sheet, i believe the 1b is viable, how ever, to be realistic, there is 2 possibility:
1. buyer will take 755m debt out of airasia balance sheet with AAC, and paid extra usd 245m, in cash, which mean it will greatly reduce debt and boost AA BS to healthy zone.( jus like tony first bought AA at RM1 and take the 40m debt with it)
2. buyer pay 1b, and AA keep the 755m debt in AA balance sheet, with USD 1b cash, Tony will pay special dividend and cover the private placement of RM 1b.(which i thk with high possibility)

it take courage to share something different when all the people is "hot and believe" in somethings else. and i think this is a fair and reasonable consideration on this few counter. respect! it doesnt mean those counter is not worth it, but we have to take into consideration above senerio.

appreciate this detail analysis

sometime investment decision and anlysis can be simple and easy.... thanks for sharing

RIP

result is not bad from my personal perspective.... anyway, total cost slightly higher compare to my estimation. let wish the best on Q3...

congrat every one! PBT 254M, Profit 342m...

thx for sharing, twot =D

is seafood and 傻海

dehouse111, thx for remind, just notice many typo between 買 and 賣... all bro, pls dun call me sifu, later prediction wrong very malu.... and i know i am not up to it

icon8888, u jus my sifu, this template inspire by u, is much easy to read compare to my previous excel template

PBT LOSS -9230, PAT 1091, 90% Accuracy

cruger12345, i think the only argument here is my estimation on Avg Base Fare, my estimation is base on the information get from official presentation after Q1 result, and since that is the "pass"information, i can be very wrong. however, after evaluate my appetite of risk due to the soar on share price this 2 days. i decide to step aside and observe 1st. if the result is superb, sure i will not hesitate to buy it back.