5 people like this.

78 comment(s). Last comment by murali 2016-09-17 14:16

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 13:19 | Report Abuse

International Market pricing of tubes is not going to change due to local major events like Megasteel closing down.....

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:22 | Report Abuse

Unless the end user has no bargaining power at all, or else as soon as they knew the RM400-RM500 savings thanks to Mega Steel close shop, they sure will make noise....solely some logical thinking

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:23 | Report Abuse

In short as long as hot money is flowing in steel co the party shall continue, just like what happens to export co last year...enjoy the party and dont be the last one to stay....

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 13:26 | Report Abuse

I dont think the buyers of Choo Bee products which are exported gives any damn how they are sourcing their raw material...their only concern is end product specification as whatever JIS or DIN or ANSI standards.

The same applies to local consumer...if they could source any cheaper tubes internationally..they would have done long time ago. The keyword here is Local manufacturers had been suppressed....as they were forced to take from Megasteel.

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:28 | Report Abuse

I wish i was wrong too. Let's c how far it goes

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:29 | Report Abuse

If this is true steel co shall be able to trade at PE 15-20 as long as Megasteel closed shop

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:30 | Report Abuse

It will be a different ball game then

yeekarwai88

3,967 posts

Posted by yeekarwai88 > 2016-09-16 13:31 | Report Abuse

haizzzz,why not think to another way?
discount RM400 per ton from raw material, why not discount RM100 or RM200 to end user?why must discount total of RM400?

ermmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......

Lulu La

901 posts

Posted by Lulu La > 2016-09-16 13:33 | Report Abuse

i believe if there is no price war between the industry..the steel company shud hv more bargaining power to the price...i think the most important is the market demand over the long run...

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:33 | Report Abuse

Yeap. It's more on bargaining power between the buyers n the sellers

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:34 | Report Abuse

It could be Rm50 to Rm500...lol

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:34 | Report Abuse

At least now we talk more sense...

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:37 | Report Abuse

This is brainstorming...not simply giving some skyhigh TP basing on 4-5 formulas...

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 13:38 | Report Abuse

Devil's advocate is indeed a very important asset - just like Murali to i3...:)

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:39 | Report Abuse

Lol, is that a compliment or a curse?

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 13:41 | Report Abuse

he he....luks like a curse to murali....but i am sure all those quiet appreciates deeply.

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 13:43 | Report Abuse

Haha, but i found yr remarks on Choo Bee does make some sense, maybe the overseas buyers are less sensitive on that as compare to domestic buyers

Stockwatch

100 posts

Posted by Stockwatch > 2016-09-16 13:50 | Report Abuse

It is precisely what I had highlighted to Wealth Wizard earlier on although his article is good.I do agree with YiStock as he had taken the trouble to dissect the components into manufacturing and trading which bares all the profit margins from each component.

The Malaysian economy is weak and these steel companies are targetting the domestic market and not export markets.

What I like to raise are some thoughts for your consideration:
The government has inked already some of the construction jobs for MRT/Lrt extention lines with the usual suspects and these contracts are firmed contracts for the next 3 years.If the cost of steel escalates due to a combination of factors like the ringgit weakness against the US dollar or the renminbi...which is happening now ..and the steel component in these infrastructure jobs could be between 25% to 35% (assumption) and if it is out of whack...you mean the steel manufacturing companies will laugh all the way to the bank and the construction players will come in with less than 7% margins ?Will these construction players go back to the government and ask for variable adjustments even before the project has yet to start?
Worse still these construction companies can approach the Chinese steel companies if the local steel players refuse to mark down their cost?
If it happens the whole steel industry will be in dire straits.

Eversendai has secured new contracts to fill up its order books.What is its costing for steel works fabrication like?Would it be at mercy to the steel players?

Eventually......everything will revert to its mean.

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 13:59 | Report Abuse

Hi probability, I am still thousands miles away to be there yet, just a bit of luck to aware something in it only.... :)

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:00 | Report Abuse

So, let's talk about business, godd question from murali.

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 14:03 | Report Abuse

Firstly i think one needs to remove this illusive 'barrier' we have created between local & international market....

it only exist politically...and may had a small impact. You can go through Mycron's YR15 annual report to see the local demands and what capacity we have to supply locally...

so to me...it has been a free open competition all the while EXCEPT for the large major CRC producers which had been closely monitored on their raw material sourcing - to be from Megasteel.

So..its like they have a restriction on whom their Supplier has to be....but there were less restriction for their customers to buy from them.

now...the constraints on their suppliers will be removed as per their expectations and requests.... so benefits isn't that hard to see.

JN88

11,670 posts

Posted by JN88 > 2016-09-16 14:09 | Report Abuse

What happen to PERWAJA and KINSTEL? This two brother very strong 10 years ago.

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 14:10 | Report Abuse

Then better let megasteel close shop forever...everybody will b happy then....except william chen...lol

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:13 | Report Abuse

As users of CRC, they used to be able choose to import CRC from China/Korea/Vietnam or to buy from local crc producers.

Now, price of Imported CRC increased due to price increase in China and imposition of anti dumping duties.

Meanwhile, cost of production for local CRC reduced more than 400 per tonne, a great saving of approximately 25%~30%.

Please note that Half of local CRC consumption were imported from oversea while the other half were fulfilled by local CRC producers for past many years.

The improved and large margin spread between selling price and production cost gives strong position for local producers to compete in previously oversea supplied market.

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-16 14:13 | Report Abuse

Just like proton...if it close shop we can buy better cars with less price

JN88

11,670 posts

Posted by JN88 > 2016-09-16 14:16 | Report Abuse

Steel company involved many issues than oil.... all depend on China Tai go. Still remember 9 years ago after china Olympics... they kill my kinstell and perwaja...wakakkakakaka

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:17 | Report Abuse

What can you expect? Not sure? Here you go:

1. Margin improved
2. Market share for local producers increased
3. Market share for importers' crc reduced

Ultimately, think if you are william cheng, what can you do to revive megasteel?

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:18 | Report Abuse

Exactly, murali, we all suffer because of stupid national car plan

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:19 | Report Abuse

Imagine we can pay 60k+ for Toyota Altis as those staying Langkawi....

JN88

11,670 posts

Posted by JN88 > 2016-09-16 14:21 | Report Abuse

moneySIFU ....you dreaming ar??? kakaka

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:25 | Report Abuse

Great observation, probability, hands up to agree, thumbs up!

moneySIFU

5,845 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-16 14:29 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, at least I can dream of staying at Langkawi......

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 14:32 | Report Abuse

moneySIFU..this is my hands up symbol to you!!..."Y Y".....
no idea how you can up with all those creative emoticons!....he he...

you truly have a strong analytical mind...supported with hard facts.

klee

2,914 posts

Posted by klee > 2016-09-16 14:40 | Report Abuse

Everytime something shoots up,someone will come out 'ah chee ah chor'.
If you are good,why you did not spot the steel sector before the sector took off?
Talking is easy,making money not so.

probability

14,402 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-09-16 14:44 | Report Abuse

Its not an airplane...where you have to sit before it takes off.

I think you are being very inconsiderate to people in a thread who are presenting factual arguments. I would not have mind you talk like this in other Kopitiam forums...which shouts sell sell..buy buy..

Posted by klee > Sep 16, 2016 02:40 PM | Report Abuse

Everytime something shoots up,someone will come out 'ah chee ah chor'.
If you are good,why you did not spot the steel sector before the sector took off?
Talking is easy,making money not so.

klee

2,914 posts

Posted by klee > 2016-09-16 14:54 | Report Abuse

Chill la,i am referring to the author.So what about kopitiam buy/sell.
Some of those are the real pros compared to those talk non stop types.

Up_down

4,272 posts

Posted by Up_down > 2016-09-16 19:27 | Report Abuse

Logically, you won't buy Cxxxxxx if you know its business operations. The profits level would not be sustainable in next few quarters. But....When the big players wanted to goreng by relying on the steel theme, you might miss short term trading gain which attached higher risks.

Posted by 股海無涯 > 2016-09-17 10:33 | Report Abuse

it take courage to share something different when all the people is "hot and believe" in somethings else. and i think this is a fair and reasonable consideration on this few counter. respect! it doesnt mean those counter is not worth it, but we have to take into consideration above senerio.

Johnnys

759 posts

Posted by Johnnys > 2016-09-17 11:01 | Report Abuse

We don't know next few quarter still profitable or not, because price for steel is changing every day, what I know is for SSteel next quarter result 99% will be better than this quarter. WHY... go reach and observe your self.

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 12:17 | Report Abuse

I learnt my lessons from johotin.when they posted 2 very good q results n the whole world expected the same on the third q in view of the low milk powder prices then tragedy happened...

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 12:26 | Report Abuse

Johotin n canone went up a lot,mayb ard 100% during the condensed milk party n never tell lie sifu set very high tp for both,basing on his 5 templates borrowed fm kc chong if i m not mistaken...n then koon koon comes out to promote kuat kuat in i3...of course he wrote his disclaimer too....if u buy high u got burnt then thats yr own fault not his.......what happened then is history

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 12:31 | Report Abuse

Dont worry koon koon n sifu n his 100 clients shall continue to make money while some of u shall continue to lose n cry father cry mother...sifu do u see this statement a lie or a joke?

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 12:36 | Report Abuse

But things could hv some changes now....last time sifu buy first before everybody...now sifu only bought high high after broadcasted to his rm1000 subscribers...
Sifu has more moral value now...just like koon koon has noble intention.....the two holy people in i3

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 12:39 | Report Abuse

One got long buddha ears n one got big buddha heart.....salute..

voonyoke

1,036 posts

Posted by voonyoke > 2016-09-17 13:11 | Report Abuse

It is no point to criticize. Murali, since u r so good, please do share on some good stocks. If not, it is just another horse back cannon

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 13:24 | Report Abuse

I shared on gamuda wr n mbsb earlier this year...u think i were sifu meh..hv to share every week...

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 13:26 | Report Abuse

Only for those very confident one i shared...or else people follow n went holland i feel guilty though its free tips

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 13:31 | Report Abuse

Most of time i shared on conman's cari makan tactic in i3...so sifu n koon koon dun like....

voonyoke

1,036 posts

Posted by voonyoke > 2016-09-17 13:35 | Report Abuse

From what u talk, I can see u won't go far

murali

5,723 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-09-17 14:16 | Report Abuse

Hmm..my bankers n remisiers may have different opinion...

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