if my estimation on ticket price is right, and management not purposely add up any "special" item, it should be very close to my estimation, someway around breakeven. anyway, jus my personal opinion, and i can be very wrong :)
icon, this only my personal opinion base on my own understanding. please feel free to share your view. i think the main problem here is the estimation of Avg base fare, other then tht,all other estimation actually quit similar compare to last quarter.
er, for AA it should be a good quarter, i dun foresee any big surprise on this quarter. A decent result wil be satisfy, most important is whether the sales of AAC and special dividend and when wil it come true. as for now there is not much to worry of AA. BUT FOR SURE, Dont expect 800m profit like q1, half of it i will happy enuf...
Airasia price is too high now, I prefer to sell and keep cash. It is quite risky keep airline stock as this business may face uncertainty at any moment, the debt is too high.
I don't quite get it. As long as the rpk is similar to last quarter and the cost remain flat . The operating profit shall be quite similar. As for the avg base fair it doesn't match the math.
cruger12345, i think the only argument here is my estimation on Avg Base Fare, my estimation is base on the information get from official presentation after Q1 result, and since that is the "pass"information, i can be very wrong. however, after evaluate my appetite of risk due to the soar on share price this 2 days. i decide to step aside and observe 1st. if the result is superb, sure i will not hesitate to buy it back.
Thanks for sharing, cost I had no much comment, the only question mark is on average fare, I doubt the average fare is 472, that is quite low as compared to previous 2 quarters, AAX flight route to China, like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Japan, Korea, and Australia, new route is including Gold Coast, Busan, Sapporo), the average fare using 472 is actually in a question mark, I think AAX average fare to this city at least will be at last 2 quarter, so using 566 will get 97 NOP, using 580, will get 111 NOP. Just my 2 cent opinion.
Sapporo is start from Oct 2015, Gold Coast double flight frequency since Jun 2016, Busan just ignore as started from 2013. Just to highlight the average fare in 472 per pax as lower than previous 2 qtr is really in question mark.
AAX will not drop but instead go up from this point. Why? Because of the aggressive buying seen last week. As you can see from the chart, it was very well supported at the 46.5 sen level. So any drop is a good buy. A lot of them who sold at 49 sen will be waiting to buy back for second round and any drop will be eaten up. Don't wait too long.
Once it crossed the 50 sen mark, there will be no road blocks. 80 sen will be the target price. Bear in mind QR is just around the corner. Don't sell. Hold tight. QR expect to be good. That is why a lot of people are buying AHEAD...before the QR release. They know it is going to be Damn good.
Look at Comcorp and AWC which trust 100% rocket up after their QR was released and never drop back to their original price. So this is the time. GRAB!!!!!! Don't regret for not buying early. Early birds always catch the worm. After result announce, Wed will be gapping up and very hard to chase. I remember how it feels. I was chasing comcorp...and it was flying way too fast... from a 35 sen stock fly to 72 sen. It was such an experience that I will never forget. I learnt my lesson now. Buy early...thats my advise.
After all, according to AAX report, can predict AAB as well?
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Posted by Lulu La > 2016-08-19 15:32 | Report Abuse
good..too many people are having over expectation on Q2 result...