becoz many ppl are using supermax OBM pricing to calculate glvoe stock like rubberex ,comfort n careplus. so tot their profit will be super high even higher than supermx...lol...they din realise their obm segment is very small. n they r oemplay which is lock down by commitment.

topglove pe 101 ...good job..

Zhang Wenhong pointed out that the second wave of outbreaks in autumn and winter will definitely happen, and it has already happened, but not in China. Zhang Wenhong pointed out that the international epidemic has not ended, and there are still many new data from the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Russia. There were 110,000 newly confirmed cases worldwide on May 30, the most new day since the outbreak. This means that if the epidemic is not well controlled in the next month, more than 10 million confirmed cases will be visible worldwide, and the number of deaths will increase accordingly.

张文宏指出，秋冬第二波疫情肯定会发生，而且已经发生，只是没有发生在中国。

张文宏指出，国际的疫情没有结束，美国、巴西、墨西哥、俄罗斯每日新增的数据还很多。5月30日全球新增确诊病例11万例，是疫情发生以来新增最多的一天。这意味着，未来一个月内如果疫情得不到很好的控制，全球确诊病例超1000万例都是看得见的，死亡人数也会随之上升。

Pharker...all those blog who talk bad on supermax will only bring discredit to themselves. Sooner or later they will change tone...and then help us to push supermax to even higher...lol

Paktua...your fund so big now is big shark...still small fish...u now use battleship to carry durian already...lol

0.06 cents per pcs is very expensive i think

yahoo128...thanks ..your friend is refering to 0.06 cents per pcs or per pair to be exact?

Now everyone got the report from super analyst briefing over last wkend...everyone knows the profit estimate already.thats why it shoot up on wednesday til friday.

Charlest and probability...i already 80 percent in when sbb time n 100 percent during 4.20 time...now no more bullet.

Imagine for 24 billions gloves le...each one earn 5 sen more already 1 billion more profit.

Charlest..u r not alone...when i say fair value for supermax is 21 bak then ...ppl say i siao eh.

Rubberex must achieved 7million pat in qtr 3 n 20 million in qtr 4 to justify same pe with supermx.lets c the report on monday.

Frankly speaking the retailer rush in to buy even b4 they raise tp...they raise tp after ppl push up the price...they always late for supermax....

Probabilty or anyone here can try put up a blog or article to show some calculation for new bie so that they easier to collect info. Jus wonderjng why no one do that...

Wah lao eh...wok n probabilty still counting...thumbs up....become a hobby already...very good...i think 200 to 400 million profit is quite a safe bet now.

https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/us-protesters-torch-police-station/news-story/c192f51a394a71a485f81a43a49c4310

Gonna c big increase in covid numbers coming weeks. No social distancing anymore.

Roslan...same here..din research indepth into rubberex. But coming report might not be too as good as expected becoz of many factor like covid lock down n oem capacity commitment. so might need to braced for impact if ppl r disappointed.but if long term next qtr shld be good.

like i told paktua other glove company might suffer delivery pain this qtr b4 seeing baby next qtr. while supermax already delviered baby this qtr n becoming man next qtr and become superman after nex.

this is wat happen when u r selling billions of items at peanut profit. then when suddenly the items super hot n profit markup 1000% x billions.

probabily...the biggest potential might be 1 billion...too scary

wat i guess is it will be 70-80% of top glove profit. so if top glove got 3 bill...supermax will be 2 b.

chief999...yes indeed..can be from low of 190 million to high of 1 billion...lol

Probabilty...yes. i hav discussed with wok as well. we concur that the capacity for jan to mar was affected by lockdown and chinese new year break. Which resulted in too many pause in production. thus resuling in probably half production or less. the rest they used inventory to top up.

if they r able to go full force in aprl to jun...he he...my conservative is really very conservative in that sense. my OEM with OBM model model also shows 409 mill pat.

20202023...dun call me sifu la..i am also learning. Be conservative , otherwise will make wrong decision becoz of overhype.

20202030...thats best scenario....lol...

for new comer, jus a guide , do your own due diligence.

jan feb mar avg apr may jun avg
OBM distributor price 90 98 105 97.67 110 130 150 130.00
OEM price 20 30 40 40.00 70 85 100 85.00

Revenue QTR3 = 447 mil
Cost = 352 mil
Avg. ASP JAN - MAR = USD69
Avg. ASP APR - JUN = USD 107.50
Unit sold = 447/69 = 6478 unit

QTR 4 Sales = 6478 x 107.5 = 696 mill
Cost remain the same since only price increase = 352 mil
PBT = 344 mil
PAT @30% = 240 mil
eps = 18.5 sen

Sales n profit may b higher since ASP keep increasing.
There might b more sales due to higher qty sales.
Here we assume Qty sold is at max of capacity.
we r using averages so profit can be much higher or lower.
There might be other expenses we miss out.
For safety -20% to 240mil for safety.
261 x0.8 = 192 mil

my profit for 3 model

OEM with OBM model
total 937,312.56
cost 351,970.00
PBT 585,342.56
PAT 409,739.79
eps 0.31

(Based on Average model)
Total 698,485.02
Cost 351,970.00
PBT 346,515.02
PAT 242,560.50
eps 0.18

Base on OEM model

(Based on OEM model)
Total 950,399.88
Cost 351,970.00
PBT 598,429.88
PAT 418,900.92
eps 0.32

the average model is the most conservative of the 3 so i chose averaage model for more accuracy.

the riot in us now is going to explode the covid spread...

do u remember the garlic onion craze...now gloves price will 3x rise...glove company profit will rise 10x - 20x -30x

paktua ..u got how many pretty secretary to help u manage so many memebers..lol...rise to the occation...u might be the biggest retailer shark fund in malaysia...lol. ..creating history here...

david..if next qtr 4 is 20sen,then confirm

qtr 1 >20 (becoz asp increase 15% month on month for jul to sep)
qtr 2 >30 (sep to dec 10% mom).
5 + 20 +25+ 30 =80 sen MINIMUM... pe 20 = rm16,pe 30 = 24

yes towkay freetosoeak..
and..rm15 is not possible to reach..

tut tut
ride to summit rm15..

.......................
rm15 is not possible to reach..

u got typo error is it?

then next next qtr...man become superman...yea yea..go

supermax good la...other glove counter will hav delivery pain b4 baby come out..this qtr delivery pain..next qtr baby come out...supermax already delivered baby...next qtr baby grows to man...lol

paktua...i no towkay ah..i also ikan bili...i ride on wave only..got good idea must remember share ah...lol...u so confident rm15...seldom c u like this...u fake a/c is it...lol

Paktua...why so excited suddenly...lol...u wanna wack supermax until the moon is it..

wok..thanks for your great insight !

Kim say eps 50 sen next qtr ah...can share your calculation ah...pls enligthen us.

kossan n supermax fund move to harta...rotation play

stanley like 8...break it !!!!!!

wah zun zun i paste my 3 model calculation it spike up...lol

my profit for 3 model

OEM with OBM model
total 937,312.56
cost 351,970.00
PBT 585,342.56
PAT 444,860.34
eps 0.34

(Based on Average model)
Total 698,485.02
Cost 351,970.00
PBT 346,515.02
PAT 263,351.42
eps 0.20

Base on OEM model

(Based on OEM model)
Total 950,399.88
Cost 351,970.00
PBT 598,429.88
PAT 454,806.71
eps 0.35

the average model is the most conservative of the 3 so i chose averaage model for more accuracy.

the average model is the most conservative of the 3 so i chose averaage model for more accuracy.

my profit for 3 model

OEM with OBM model
total 937,312.56
cost 351,970.00
PBT 585,342.56
PAT 444,860.34
eps 0.34

(Based on Average model)
Total 698,485.02
Cost 351,970.00
PBT 346,515.02
PAT 263,351.42
eps 0.20

Base on OEM model

(Based on OEM model)
Total 950,399.88
Cost 351,970.00
PBT 598,429.88
PAT 454,806.71
eps 0.35

wok..din receive your file via i3 messenger yet. i used averages between manufactuer price and the distributer price for each qtr and average them again.

jan feb mar avg apr may jun avg
OBM distributor price 90 98 105 97.67 110 130 150 130.00
OEM price 20 30 40 40.00 70 85 100 85.00
average 68.83 107.50

wok...the asp that u used to work with...i believe doesnt include the obm profit portion rite? becoz u r calculating with manufacturer sales price.

wok..pls send me your worksheet thru the mq..thanks a lot.

wok...very happyy for your input...thanks a lot.

wok...from qtr 2 report somewhere i read that their utilization rate is already @ 75%...this year feb they added another 10%.

wok..did u read the analyst report?

JSoang Ooi..still can download from

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/supermax_analystbriefing/2020-05-28-story-h1507892261-Analyst_Briefing_Report_from_Supermax_Corporation_Berhad.jsp