ricky yeo, OBM is expanding n cost incurring during past years. thats why supermax got lower margin than peers. but there r 2 side to 1 coin.disadvantage becoz major advantage during this crisis. so now its their turn to reap bumper profit. u cannot hav best of both world without cost...now supermax hav both...

YTH888...how many pm u got...lol

cjp74132rn...good calculation...but u seems to overlook on the margin part.the margin will not be 18% (only 2% increase) since the asp increase so much with same cost. But anyway very conservative calculation.

YTH888..i also want the slide...

look long term...u will not be worry...1 year earn 10 yrs profit. if price cannot up 10 x is illogical. up20 x is normal up 30 x i worry.

i only trust numbers...number dont lie. total nil order now 15 billion..if they can fulfil now rite away next qtr...800 million profit...but they cannot only...so why worry..now only may already got 15 billion order....i not worry one bit.

glove sector fund reorg is happening again.

the director sbb is not to average their share price..its jus a confident gesture.

u think by then u can get 7.60...

for qtr 1 end of year. ASP expect to increase by another 20% average of QTR4. meaning conservatively. if qtr 4 profit is 210 mil, then qtr 1 will be 350 million minimum already not to say new lines will be in in jun - jul. expect profit to be near 400 million n above in sep - dec report.

For newcomer...

Revenue QTR3 = 447 mil
Cost = 352 mil
Avg. ASP JAN - MAR = USD69
Avg. ASP APR - JUN = USD 107.50
Unit sold = 447/69 = 6478 unit

QTR 4 Sales = 6478 x 107.5 = 696 mill
Cost remain the same since only price increase = 352 mil
PBT = 344 mil
PAT @24% = 261 mil
eps = 20 sen

Sales n profit may b higher since ASP keep increasing.
There might b more sales due to higher qty sales.
Here we assume Qty sold is at max of capacity.
we r using averages so profit can be much higher or lower.
There might be other expenses we miss out.
For safety -20% to 261 mil for safety.
261 x0.8 = 208 mil

at this rate we r going...n the director buying at 5-6+. quite confident of my calculation already.b4 qtr 4 reach rm12..means profit 3x of qtr 2 (71x 3 = 216 mil). And may b much more than that becoz price keep increasing.

there is no resistance when the coming profit is more than 200 million for the next 4 qtr.

yes, i love the wall at 7.70. pls park more. fund is coming to eat up.

Fund waiting for wat...buying supermax is buying glove production biz, obm distribution business, lucrative contact lens business which is expecting profit soon in next qtr. Rm20...go.

I still remember when i say supermax shld b valued at pe 20 @ rm20.....may b we can c by nex yr...!!!

Eatcoconut...u mean profit over 500 million is it...

Supermax obm trading n distribution...the awakenjng dragon...the gateway of malaysia gloves n ppe to the world. Took over 4 yrs to establish. Catalpulted and stole the limelight during covid crisis. Challenging n undercut major distributor in us n uk to provide direct to gomen agency ,ngo n consumers. Huge market is in their grasp during this covid crisis. Revalue this dragon.

highest margin means highest growth, Supermax PE shld be higest follow by TG ,and then HARTA.

Some ppl choose comfort becoz of new lines, i choose supermax becoz of obm price advantage. I believe high margin beats qty in times of limited capacity.now supermax got the highest margin.
Jus base on fundamentals. 2nd highest topglove,3rd harta. So easy to choose.

i like this 6.9 position.

stanley thai daughter buy bak ah...good good...

speakup...i wanna ask u why u sell this morning...lol ...sorry..too busy then forgot. if not may b u will buy bak earlier. think may b u din c my calculation.

if today really sbb...he he...what will happen le. i predict they will do it in july.so soon me?

paktua..actually i din promote. i jus share my calculation, but dunno why suddenly ppl so appreciate...lol...i jus stick to supermax discussion, no go other place sing praise.

paktua...u jus park your tut tut car...go toilet come out ...then suddenly full of durian in your car ...lol

Kim TOLD aldy.. IB's keep failure.. They will revise new TP.. keep revise everyday.. RM12

they sure kaobe kaobu why keep revising...lol

YTH888...good move...lol..

a reorg of fund 10% is enuff to push supermax to rm10 easily.

whenother glove counter dip, other sector disposed fund will come in to mob up other glove stock. then other glove stock go up again...repeat this cycle 1000x pls.

when other glove counter break new high ,ppl take profit to come in supermax at dip.

as what i hav forseen, funds break up in other glove swimming to supermax. reorg of fund .

CharlesT Posted by freetospeak > May 27, 2020 3:29 PM | Report Abuse

thats why the company is brilliant ...spend 60 million later giv u 600 million worth of dividend.

yr prediction very garang

Ok..ok..dun giv false hope...change to 300 million worth of dividend.

0.82 + rm1.20 eps....dunno when will reach...lol

they already know they will earn 1 billion profit..thats why i said b4 they bot at 2.01 NTA value...lol

profit 1 billion not even rm1 eps...how to give rm1.78 dividend...lol...may b with the treasury share when reach rm20.00. give u 20 to 1 share .then got rm1 dividend.

thats why the company is brilliant ...spend 60 million later giv u 600 million worth of dividend.

one line of handshaking old man...lol

so dun underestimate the trading arm of supermax OBM network. Another giant in making.

From what i observe, not many can jus increase asp so fast. OEM got commited capacity to fulfill. If they break it, they will hav trouble in future in selling. For Supermax is different story. They can always sell thru their OBM network with OBM indenpendant distributor at 95% now. And they now deal direct to the US n UK Gomen agency instead of thru oem n distributor. In otherwords, a permanent stronger n wider shift of OBM network. With such big network, they can even become the OEM of other big 3 n sell their gloves under supermax brand or new brand.

Top glove can adjust but not as much as supermax. And i believe they also got Commited capacity, as they only hav 15-20% obm sales.You cannot suddenly all sell thru OBM channel. So Top glove is faster n more nimble than kossan n harta. but might not hav so much growth as expected per this qtr. But given current scenario, topglove will also adjust asp 10% prior to previous 5% in next qtr. Still much better than kossan n harta.

Charles..dun call me sifu la...we do resarch together.

Yes, Charles. show us your figure.

me too...lol

CharlesT...u also shaking ah...wat u found out...lol

chief999...i also dunno..6..9..12 is my tp...for qtr 3,4,1 hope it reach there b4 each qtr.

chief999...becoz fund is still jumping in at 6...meaning they r expecting next qtr at least 10 sen to hit 9.

now the market n fund already not prcing supermax at 5 sen per qtr already. minimum 10 sen per qtr.

chief999...i used the total order to calculate n i got 800 million profit which give me a shock.then i realised its a total order . so i beleive they can acchieved that 1 billion profit within 1 yr . If ASP is higher most probably is PAT.

YTH888..i got help u a lot me?...hope u earn a lotof profit and can retire soon...lol

chief999..ok ..ok ...hope they acchieve 1.2 bill profit...n discount it 20%.