they hav already more orders that they need 1 year to fulfill. if they fullfill all the orders within 1 year and with higher n higer asp...1 billion profit is confirmed.

My 1 billion annual profit prediction...is not a dream anymore...SUPERMAX good job.

Many thanks to Probabilty n Dynasty for helping to check n many input. Thanks to everyone who benefited from my calcualtion. Its my pleasure to help everyone here. If not i quietly invest only..haha...since i still earn without participation.

Revenue QTR3 = 447 mil
Cost = 352 mil
Avg. ASP JAN - MAR = USD69
Avg. ASP APR - JUN = USD 107.50
Unit sold = 447/69 = 6478 unit

QTR 4 Sales = 6478 x 107.5 = 696 mill
Cost remain the same since only price increase = 352 mil
PBT = 344 mil
PAT @24% = 261 mil
eps = 20 sen

Sales n profit may b higher since ASP keep increasing.
There might b more sales due to higher qty sales.
Here we assume Qty sold is at max of capacity.
we r using averages so profit can be much higher or lower.
There might be other expenses we miss out.
For safety -20% to 261 mil for safety.
261 x0.8 = 208 mil

cpenbrush..how u know..lol...need to tune down n tune down until conservative enuff. will release later after closing coz got gun on my head now. cannot release, but all big fund n ib already got the info b4 me.

hands shaking when calculating...will share later when i sort out . Need to recalculate.

next report out...PENTAL kill... TG, HARTA, KOSSAN, COMFORT, RUBBEREX ...add up also lose to QTR 4 profit of SUPERMAX.

guys...sapu as much as u can..next report out. u will be shocked!!!!!! i cant believe my new projection based on new information.

if qtr 4 profit hit 200 million then is almost 6 qtr profit. 1 qtr equals 6 qtr. of course need rerate every week. becoz now earn 2 wks equals to last 1 qtr profit.

supermax growth 2-300% pe shld be 200 ma...lol

i think ib gonna rerate again soon....lol...funny.

Windfall tax will only further increase glove price. gomen all now try decreasing tax to ppe. Gomen windfall tax will further push up price .so if gomen dun wan screw by all gomen in the world,they better not try this.

My calculation included tax....

264 million will b penta kill...lol

if u seens my calculation based on asp25-30 apr - jun calculation , u will hav a rough idea. Might not b accurate. jus a guide.

Information as of now is 25%-30% MOM for april to jun, I take 20% b conservative.
Production for OBM is increased to 95% prior to 50-70% in QTR3.
Average asp rate = 20 +40 + 60 / 3 = 40%
Assuming no increase in cost n sales
QTR 3 Revenue 447247k
QTR 4 additional profit for new ASP @20 % MOM = 447247k x0.95 X0.4 = 169953k
PAT@24% tax = 169953 x0.76 = 129164K
Total profit for QTR4 = 129164k +71056 k = 200221k
ep15.4 sen

can u imagine if really 264 million more than harta +kossan +comfort +rubberex profit add up also lose.

probabilty...my calculation based on 20% increase average selling price month on month = 200 million. 30% MoM = 264 million. No factor in increase sales volume.

supermax has distribution centre in brazil not manufacturing. With a whopping projected 31% margin in qtr 4. the highest in all glove counter. A little oil price up doesnt matter.

i only pump twice this year. next pump shld b next yr.

If director dare to buy at 5.25, shows he is very confident of the qtr 4 report!

Yes, topglove is also good. I am looking forward to qtr3 topglove profit grow 2 x ,so that can lift all glove stock together. Everybody will huat.

will asia melt down start from today ?

wow...ready for hang seng crash anyone...

Wah paktua england dr involved in vaccine u also got contact,banyak pandai....lol

Highfive Bread...thank yu for your support. i am not concern about others view, i just wan to be conservative as possible .so that not to mislead ppl. And i urge everyone including new investor to verify my calculation and info. Coz even KYY make mistake in his write up on supermax pe which i hav pointed out that day when he published.

Roslan67..Average selling price increase month on month.
yes, I am from financial background but not in financial field.

highfive bread...if i incorportae 30% asp MOM ,and another 10% volume increase in sales revenue...i scared the profit will ballon to 300 million...u think ppl will beleive or not...lol..i conservative count also 200 milllion...many also dun beleive already.

YTH888, To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

Its ok to use 5.42 as your base eps as supermax profit per qtr will not fall below 70 million from now on according to my calculation even covid is over.

YTH888 Freetospeak

I didn’t even project the sales to increase.

I just assume that it remain constant for four quarter
===========================================
i did not factor in sales increase in my projection too, only on asp-hike resulted profit.

Something i notice to share with everyone.

rm1. 80 sbb activated - 4.50 qtr result = 2.5x
Profit increase is equal to 2.5x

U think is coincidence, i dun think so.
Insider n market already knew the profit so it never pass thru 4.50.
In July , look out for sbb or director buybak. (director bought bak on Friday( the next day after report out).
If price runs up to rm12 b4 qtr 4. Dun be surprise, becoz market is pricing in a 3 x profit.(my estimation is 200 million for qtr 4 = 2.8x)
So u can c many hint along the way as more info is revealed.

wongtty, here is my calculations. i hav pasted many x. scare ppl say i spamming.

if u seens my calculation based on asp25-30 apr - jun calculation , u will hav a rough idea. Might not b accurate. jus a guide.

Information as of now is 25%-30% MOM for april to jun, I take 20% b conservative.
Production for OBM is increased to 95% prior to 50-70% in QTR3.
Average asp rate = 20 +40 + 60 / 3 = 40%
Assuming no increase in cost n sales
QTR 3 Revenue 447247k
QTR 4 additional profit for new ASP @20 % MOM = 447247k x0.95 X0.4 = 169953k
PAT@24% tax = 169953 x0.76 = 129164K
Total profit for QTR4 = 129164k +71056 k = 200221k
ep15.4 sen

Philip sifu...Thanks for the write up. Thanks for guidance.

the price runs up on super profit result is very normal..if got super profit n price stays the same then is abnormal. profit go up 2.5 x price go up 2.5 x...if next qtr profit 2x again of course the price will gain 2 x. thats normal. if profit go up 2.5 x n price runs up 5 x..then thats abnormal. market is very smart now..the ratio is always in tally with profit increase.

dunno why everyone keep abusing talib. everyone is freetospeak. we jus debate dun abuse.

@jasonlim72 , my tp is still the same as usual, 6,9,12 for qtr 3,4,1.
Conservative 5,8,11.

A 2 year bumper profit run is enuff to propel supermax to another level.

With the normal 15% annual growth for glove demand, and a permanent shift of 25% in demand due to US 3 mths PPE stockpile and a heightened health awareness post covid. They will need another expansion of 30% even after 2 years.alto with no more super high margin. their profit will already be a normalised 70-90 million qtrly by then. If the contact lens fly by leaps n bound, u can c profit above 100 million qtrly easily. that is about 30 eps normal operation post covid. with current price is only a pe 20.

to match current topglove marketcap since they might b earning same profit for coming qtr...supermax will hav to reach rm21. or topglove price need to adjust down to supermax price. or they will meet halfway. I am not saying supermax tp is 21,this is jus a comparison to topglove.

Do u know even a 0.01% death rate in vaccine canresult more death in the covid itself...becoz not everyone got covid but everyone wannna get vaccinated....so u can go calculate.

seems many here still surprised by the high margin for supermax. My calculation shows supermax margin for next qtr is 31%. Hope will raise anyone attention.

My projection for qtr 3 with profit from 75 mil to 100 mil. my projection was off a bit becoz supermax sold old stock at cheaper pricing n bumper profit appears only in march onwards. Supermax starts backward billing now which commands highest price getting stock first will boost margin many fold.New lines online since march will further boost sales as well.

brazil will also end the crisis earliest even before the vaccine appears becoz they acquired herd immunity by taking the hard pill.

the way i c the brazil situation..i feel very sad also. brazil will only end it with herd immunity. meaning possible 5- 10% population wipe off....very sad. brazil will melt down n comes down south america n might affect the whole world stock market.

Targeted, i believe so. It fly to 50% from 20%..Supermax now use highest price get stock 1st.So if Brazil order comes in at 10x current price becoz of the current urgent crisis.then they will match the earliest order. So the margin will be very very high.

If harta n kossan is aggressive n with higher obm share they can push margin above 20.but they r too slow. May be they can achieve in next 2 qtr if they turn aggressive.

Next qtr projected margin is 31% according to my new calculation. Only top glove is possible to be on par.exceed impossible. Witb top glove 10% obm size,very difficult to push margin so high.comfort n others no hope to achieve so high margin coz they oem,even increase asp also not much.

Selamat Hari Raya to everyone. Stay healthy everyone.

Zhang Wenhong said: China ’s vaccines are now in phase I and phase II are actually carried out relatively quickly, but as far as vaccines are concerned, our epidemic situation is very well controlled, which makes us lose the phase III clinical research in China. There is an opportunity that in the future, if some of the vaccines in China that are running ahead of the comparison are to be clinically researched, they will have to go to places where the epidemic situation is more frequent abroad. Overall, the vaccine should eventually be a very useful weapon to solve the new crown, but from the phase III clinical results to the world can have enough output for most people to use,

I believe this time point is not what can be done at the end of next year.

张文宏表示：中国的疫苗现在在一期二期事实上进行的速度都是比较快的，但是就疫苗而言，我们的疫情控制得非常好，使得我们失去了在中国从事三期临床研究的一个机会，将来我们中国几个跑在比较前面的疫苗如果要做临床研究，还要到国外疫情比较高发的地方去做。总体而言，疫苗最终应该是解决新冠的一个非常有用的一个武器，但是从三期临床结果出来到全世界能够有足够的产量让大多数的人得以使用，我相信这个时间节点还不是明年的年终所能完成的.

Eventually ,may b everyone need go south america n africa to do phase 3 trial test.

Trythis..according to my calculation qtr 4 margin will be 31% based on 200mil profit/626 mill sales. Margin for qtr 1 2022 will be even higher. With so high margin u do not need so much sales volume. 60 sen eps for next 4 qtr is a confirmed case if qtr 4 result is around my estimation. Everyone here always c my saying 1 billion profit target for supermax nex year.i really hope so.

I did not say tp 21, i say if qtr 4 she proves can same profit with topglove,then she shld be valued at rm21.of course if top glove market cap drop then it might be lower not a fix amt. Everyone can calculate themselves. I hav shown the calculation in my past comment already.

At 50 percent ,i think they happier they cancel order...lol

if supermax shows same earning with topglove in qtr 4 result...supermax shld b valued at rm21.