In a scenario with AAC sale being aborted or put on the back burner, what is so terrible about it? It will remain in the BS and grow bigger until a fair day when the right suitor comes along. But I still believe that an imminent sale is near, given the willing seller and the prime quality of the asset.

3.06 now, high of 3.09 ... attaboy! AA investors, way to go!

How to read it ...

Plan for aa to be discussed today. Threefold good earning. Strong ancilliary income, good dividend and special dividend every two years.

Too wishful?

I say it's better to keep them as separate entities. They are different animals. Although both are LCCs, one is into short and the other long haul operations. The management and usage of planes and flight crews are quite different thus requiring you to wear different thinking hats. The 2 working models respond to changes in working environment conditions differently. Moreover, AAX is mulling over going full service which, should it need to happen, would be a complete transmutation.

I am not saying one outfit will forever be better than the other. I just like to be able to buy something more easily defined or less complex. Very likely, I would own shares in both counters but hold different expectations from them.

Currently still more bullish on AA but starting to like AAX now because of expected long term continuation of low jet fuel costs including even lower prices in future.

25% shares in China ventures is a bonanza already. Don't take too big a bite that you can't chew and swallow. Compare 25 to zero %, consider who holds the ground and money, and you will be most grateful.

Fecilitations, jubilation and celebration. China AirAsia akan datang.

LCCs are disrupting the full service airlines business but a boon to airports and world tourism. Lower Ringgit does help to bring more international travellers to Malaysia.

Low Ringgit effect drawing foreign tourists to Malaysia for cheap holidays.

It pays to keep your mind objective when surrounded by euphoria.

I am looking at EPS of 55.5c in FY17 with full disposal of AAC completed by end of 3Q17 and I expect AA to be re-rated at 8× PER before the year 2017 is over, and another re-rating to 10× PER in FY18 with EPS of 46.9c. I think prices are heading for the $4 and above territory.

Yeah, fantastic cash generator because of high profits, payments for seats, luggage and other items are received long before services are rendered, and there is plenty of provision for depreciation of aircrafts and engines.

Agreed issue price RM1.84 less RM0.04 Div paid = RM1.80 settlement amount per new issue.

Total number of shares outstanding as at 31st Dec 2016 was 2783 million. PP of 559 million new shares @RM1.80ea was concluded 20th Jan 2017. Now go do the maths.

I see hng33 still strikes like a ninja, agile and sharp.

Revenue per unit passenger in 4Q16 was already RM233.

http://www.atimes.com/article/global-times-china-accept-surgical-strike-north-korea/

Kesian r°Moi and other early supporters missing out.

To enjoy the 12c dividend, make sure you do not sell your shares until after 22nd May. Earliest you can sell is on 23rd May.


Posted by angelol > Apr 20, 2017 11:11 AM | Report Abuse
12cent dividend, 23 may ex-date, 25 may entitlement date. When is the earliest date I sell AA share but still able to enjoy the dividend?

There was probably a fairly big buy order on Wednesday.

What a beauty

As it is, it is already bullish.

We shall see if a Harami will be confirmed tomorrow by a gap-up opening.

We may end the day with a bullish Harami.

I am still expecting a special dividend of around $1.20 per share. The annual divvy is 2 cents more than my expectation. Thanks Tony and team.

Why worry about the incidental blips of rising oil prices during a long term downtrend of oil prices due to major structural changes in the world's O&G industries with the advent of cheap shale oil and gas? The big picture says at least 5 to 10 years based on current technology and factors. Nobody would bet against production costs of shale oil dropping significantly further with improved technology thereby stretching the period of downtrend indefinitely.

Tony has been working with great passion and at a furious pace since December 2014. The results show in our AA shares value.

Well, that is one of the things diligent people who look after listed companies do, selling the company. If many big individual investors and funds both big and small like what they hear, they might look deeper and decide to invest in the company. When the demand for a company's shares goes up, so does its share price, normally.

AA has been on road shows more than a couple of times in the last one and half years.

Tony was in HK for the Credit Suisse organised Asian Investment Conference to promote AirAsia to funds and investors.

dnn78, thanks for your advice. You know how it is with some people ... sensitive and easily offended.

Wow, look at it fly!

Excellent new venture, Vietnam! Please don't ask Sir Richard Branson to dress up in bikinis to promote the launching of the maiden flight. That would be big time disastrous against Vietjet's lovely stewardesses in bikinis in an asian setting.. What more, the image of a Neanthedral drag queen seared into your brain would be painful. His famed bikini girls are okay. So are our sharp looking ladies in red equally spirit lifting.

No insult intended, I'm a fan of all things great.

The Dublin based aircrafts leasing group, AWAS, is expensive. Chances are a Chinese suitor will take over our AAC at at a decent price in a 'win - win' deal.

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/chinese-make-22bn-bid-for-dublin-aircraft-lessor-awas-34553771.html

SPA & SSA execution does not mean signing and sealing of contracts, only that the process towards that will begin and as indicated in AA's AIC presentation dossier, possibly on 7 April.

Ended with not quite a long-legged doji. Hopefully good enough to portend a continued uptrend.

Hold on tightly is a better choice.

The operator may be gradually casting off weight ballasts given that AA has become more buoyant pricewise lately. It could be a sign that the group is getting ready to exit and we shall be seeing AA's fair market value soon. Of course AAC divestment appears to be nearing a positive conclusion and heralding fat dividends announcements. Next, the market can focus on divestment of Expedia and IPO exercises for IAA, PAA and AACE.

However, time will tell how enjoyable the path ahead will be like. A steady ascent or othewise? Dark clouds are starting to gather now as a gravestone doji flashed on and off my screen all afternoon a.nd even threatening to evolve into a shooting star now.

AAC was only set up in Sep 2014, so it does not have a meaningful record of time tested history of existence. In fact only the last 3 AA quarterly reports have provided dedicated financial accounts of AA.

I have a simple 5 minutes valuation method. Using info data in the 4Q16 being the latest and arguably most relevant AAC account, we have;
Net Profit: ~USD28.5
Aircrafts: 59 & allow 50% of 4 for full Qtr
Assumption: AAC sale goes with 70 planes

Net Profit per Qtr per plane = 28.5 ÷ 61 = ~USD0.467
NP generated by 70 planes per Qtr = 70 × 0.467 = USD32.69
Annual NP = 32.69 × 4 = USD130.76, Y2018 ceteris paribus
Valuation of AAC = 130.76 × 10(PER) = ~USD1.308b

If bidder buys 100% of AAC, price is USD1.308b.
If bidder buys 51% of AAC price, a premium surcharge of 30% applies, ie 0.51 × 1308 × 1.3 = ~USD867m, minimum dividend guarantees to apply.

My back of matchbox workings.

Ok, the last time we were in this territory was 7 months ago and it lasted just over a week. Looks like it may be better this time.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/airasia-rises-5-news-korean-firm-preferred-bidder-asia-aviation-stake

Aw shucks, bids opened already. I must have slept past noon time.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group

Maybe KOTAM's offer is based on 59 aircrafts only as that was the number at the end of 3Q2016. At the end of 4Q2016 the number had gone up to 63 and it will be 70 at the end of 2017. Maybe the deal will see a second staggered payment for the additional 11 aircrafts after all the transfers have been completed in due time?

I thought there were 2 Japanese submissions out of 12 earlier on, no?

KOTAM's offer for a stake in AAC is less than USD900 million.

"A little-known South Korean group is in advanced talks to acquire a stake in AirAsia Bhd's aircraft leasing unit, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Two of the people said a deal would value AirAsia's fully-owned unit, Asia Aviation Capital, at roughly $900 million."

Those are the exact words used in the the first 2 paragraphs of the reported news.

"to acquire a stake in .... leasing unit" can only mean to acquire a partial stake of the leasing unit NOT the full stake which would have so stated had that been the case.

Whatever the percentage of the leasing unit the stake might be, it would value the whole AAC at roughly USD900 million NOT the stake.

For USD900, KOTAM can have 70 to 75% of AAC.

RenegadeMaster, on the contrary, I am certain the AAC divestment will happen.

But you are right to point out that if the divestment exrcise fails, we get to retain a profitable business asset. Then TF & KM will have to contend with servicing a huge offshore loan for a while longer with the accompanying interest and forex risks. We shall not be getting a special dividend enabled by the unlocking of AAC's wealth via its disposal.

AA could be shifting towards the 50/50 owned/leased aircrafts operation model.

I too have been with AA quite a while since the time it dropped below 90c and bottomed at 76.5c in late Aug 2015.

A counter that moves the way AA does, almost in contempt of reality and conventional behaviour, seemingly oblivious to the positive results it generates and the current long stretch of dream operating environment that it is enjoying.

You can easily imagine why this is so.

Therefore as a word of caution, beware the ides of march. Expect the unexpected as you gleefully anticipate the glory ahead. It may not be delivered to you on a silver platter but you may have to survive hell or rather, a spine chilling adventure to earn it.

Maybe 2.80 will do for the low today. The operator is still sizing up the retailers' strength and reserves. There is plenty of time to do their damnest yet.

No bombs dropping yet?

PAS