It is March now.

This should be the cue for a trend reversal. Time to accumulate more for me.

AA listing in HKEX by April is obviously out of the question now and it may be a dual listing in New York instead of Hong Kong. What is certain is that both options are being considered and there is still work to be done before the exercise can progress further. No fixed dates have been set for AA dual listing and the IAA and PAA IPOs, all expected to be completed in 2017.

So in the near term, the focus will be on FY16 annual dividend, divestment of AAC and, to a lesser extent, network expansion and growth updates. So things might become a drag somehow and drag on a bit.

Just as well I am also watching and building up on BJCorp, Evergreen and TunePro to get past the boredom of waiting.

http://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/02/215775/flying-asean-dream-airasia-start-ball-rolling-dual-listing?m=1

Niki, there isn't really much we can talk about AA's secondary listing in HKEX until such time when a proper proposal is announced and all the nitty gritty laid out for all to see. Meantime, we can read up on cross-borders dual listings, existing examples and models. Different countries have different laws, hence there are obstacles to be surmounted before a dual listing can happen. That's why they have hired IBs and consultants to handle the listing exercise.

Muarkia calculated exactly as CIMB did. I can deduce how rhey did it.

CIMB had calculated based on the arithmetic average of the VWAP of the five days in Feb 2017 being the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 27th which were 2.6998, 2.7970, 2.7840, 2.7237 and 2.6536 respectively.

Hence, their VWAP;
(2.6998+2.797+2.784+2.7237+2.6536)/5 = 2.7316

and their cash settlement amount;
(2.7316 - 2.00)/3 = 0.2439, rounded to 0.244

Strictly speaking, the terms of CW34 did not state, "the arithmetic mean of daily volume weighted average market price of AIRASIA shares for the 5 market days prior to and including the market day immediately before the Expiry Date."

Stated exactly was,

"The VWAP of AIRASIA Shares (subject to any adjustment as may be necessary to reflect any capitalisation, rights issue, distribution or others) for the 5 Market Days prior to and including the Market Day immediately before the Expiry Date (subject to the market disruption event provision below)."

Therefore strictly speaking, the correct way to determine the 5 days' VWAP should be to extend each of the 5 days' VWAP against the day's traded volume, then add all these together and the total divided by the total volume of the 5 days.

Hence, VWAP should be;
(2.6998 × 28,076,500 + 2.797 x 40,844,500 + 2.784 x 23,445,300 + 2.7237 x 21,433,000 + 2.6536 x 19,789,800)/133,586,100 = 2.7413

and settlement cash amount should be;
(2.7413 - 2.00)/3 = 0.2471, rounded to 0.247

The difference is 1.23% meaning if you are going to receive $10,000, it should rightly be $10,123.

I don't know, perhaps conventionally, this is how CW issuers have always done it but that is not what the terms' wordings of CW34 describe how it should be done. In my humble opinion.

The cash settlement amount for CW34 that I worked out is RM0.247/unit.

I found the January news clip on the HKSE listing.

The Asean Holding Company is a long term ambition in the making and it entails a lot more work to be done talking to Asean leaders before such an integrated entity can come to fruition.

The ongoing task is a dual listing of AirAsia in Hong Kong.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/13/airasia-to-list-in-hong-kong/

27th Feb is the last of the 5 days

Closing Price : The VWAP of AIRASIA Shares (subject to any adjustment as may be necessary to reflect any capitalisation, rights issue, distribution
or others) for the 5 Market Days prior to and including the Market Day immediately before the Expiry Date (subject to the market disruption event provision below).


Posted by thurston > Feb 27, 2017 04:57 PM | Report Abuse
Anyone know if c34, 5 days average price is till today or tomorrow?

I wonder if the weak pricing of AA in KLSE has anything with the coming listing in HK. Are potential investors holding back in KLSE so as to plough straight into Asean Holding Group in HKSE later?

During the 4Q16 analysts & investors earnings briefing, TF confirmed that the process to list the Asean assets of the Group in HKEX under a single holding company has been underway for sometime already and on another occasion intimated that it could be done by his birthday in April this year. If successful 2 months from now, it will be a big celebration for us and a double happiness for TF.

However details are scant and how will the shares we now hold be impacted? It is surprising none of the analysts requested clarity on this matter.

Des07, you are right if you are pointing out that they are probably not using the net operating profit amount to do the calcs but my estimate is based on what the current policy states. The only caveat is that the dividend must not be detrimental to the company's cash flow requirements or I suppose what is foreseeable.

Sori typo ... should be RM0.10

This dividend payout should not have any foreseable detrimental effect on AA's cashflow.

Dividend policy

The Board of Directors of AirAsia Berhad (“AirAsia” or “the Company”) wishes to announce that the Company has adopted a dividend policy to pay an annual dividend of up to 20% of the net operating profit earnings per share (per the audited financial statements of the Company), rounded to the nearest whole sen number, provided that such distribution will not be detrimental to the Company’s cash flow requirements. This dividend policy shall commence for the financial year ending 31 December 2013.

Announcement date: 26 Febuary 2013


Net Operating Profits FY16 (RM,000);
1Q 409,795
2Q 276,257
3Q 440,420
4Q 544,588
Total 1,671,060

Estimated annual dividend for FY16 = 20% of RM1,671/3342 = RM1.00

I think the PP shares are entitled to this yet to be announced dividend.

Usually annual dividend announcement by end of March, ex-date in April and payment in May.

Thanks feicsh. I get it is the T+3 Working Day period whereby the scripts are picked up by the broking house of the purchaser.

Why should the last trading day of CW34 shares not be on the last Working Day just before its expiry date?

CW34 expires on Tuesday 23 Feb 2017

Last day of trading of CW34 shares is Monday 22 Feb 2017

You must realise that as the Ringgit drops, the USD assets that AA owns increase by the same rate implyng hugh increases in the unrealised value of aerplanes running into billions of Ringgits which is not reflected in the financial reports.

Depends on how you treat it yourself. Fund managers and long term investors are not too bothered by such figures. They are more concerned with the core figures.

Balance of USD loans as at 30 Sep 2016 was RM8,836 million. 62% was hedged leaving 38% exposed to forex fluctuations. Using Bloomberg forex records of USD:MYR records, closing rates on 30.09.16 and 30.12.16 were 4.1385 and 4.4862 respectively implying a drop of 7.75% in the value of the Ringgit Q-Q. Although we can guess to some extent end of quarters USD loans balances, I am not attempting to do so because the unrealised forex gain or loss is not a crucial figure to monitor.

RM8,836m x 0.38 x 0.0775 = ~RM260m

Hence, unrealised forex loss in 4Q16 was approximstely RM 260 million in 4Q16. There are other forex figures to look at besides this.

Catalysts for February and March ... 4Q16 report and firmer details of bids for AAC. Catalysts for April/May ... possible details of listing of Asean Holding Group in HKEX. For the rest of 2017, highlights may be possible dual listings of IAA and PAA in their respective home countries, continuing expansion of group through new airplanes deliveries and higher frequencies of service for existing routes or establishment of new routes. Somewhere down the timeline, there will be roadshows again to market the AA growth story and aviation's coming of age in Asia. When the huge pension funds come to bite into AA, you want to be holding a lot of AA stocks.

Tony should be a Roman Catholic.

You can go to the websites of the issuers of call warrants to download the prospectus or term sheet of the call warrants to peruse all pecuniary details of the CW.

Sorry, after checking the AirAsia CW34 Prospectus, I do not find any specific clause calling for a deduction of 2% of the money that the call warrants may be in to cover general expenses. Apparently different issuers follow different policies in their administration work.

See page 1 in particular for Terms and Conditions of The Call Warrants in the link below ...

http://warrants.cimb.com/doc/gcCIMBWR/509934KL/AIRASIA%20CW.pdf

To cover general expenses. Go and read the fine prints of the CW issued. I have not read it for CW34 but I have seen a 2% required to be deducted in some other CWs I have read before.

Following your example above, it will be (0.98 x $0.80)/3 CW34 = $0.26133/CW34

it is the VWAP (volume weighted average price) of the last 5 trading days of the mother shares before the day of the call warrant's expiration. I think you still have to take away 2% from the amount money the call warrants are in to cover expenses and then divide the net amount by the conversion number to arrive at the figure that the CW issuer will pay you for each unit of the CW you hold at the date of expiry.

First stirrings at the end of a long slumber? This dragon can scale great heights if it decides to take to the skies this year.

BJCorp has an agreement with Vietlott to run a computerised lottery business in Vietnam exclusively for 18 years starting from their launch date in July 2016.

Berjaya GTI was incorporated as a joint stock company to own, invest in and setup, and manage the computerised lottery business. Vietlott owns 49% of Berjaya GTI with Berjaya Lottery Vietnam Limited owning the balance of 51%.

BLV is 80% and 20% owned by BJCorp and BJToto respectively.

Why is there confusion about financial reporting? What is normally done? That is what we expect.

I know a pilot working for Malaysia Airlines and a senior flight attendant working for Singapore Airlines. That is the impression I get from them although I never asked or bothered to find out.

valuegrowth, if bonuses given to staff have been based on base salaries, then the amount will be significantly lower, probably less than their monthly income except for ground staff. I think flight crews' base salaries could be as little as 20% of their monthly income.

MAA's staff costs in 3Q16 was RM220 million. The staff recently received bonuses equivalent to between 3 to 6 months pay each. Assuming an average staff bonus of 4 months pay equivalent, the 1Q17 staff costs could be bumped up by around RM290 million to around RM510 million.

The three largest operational expenses for AirAsia are fuel, staff and PPE depreciation, in that order.

Using 3Q16 as a database for this simple projection of cost implication of the new extra excise tax on jet fuel to TAA;

Fuel consumed: 992,916 barrels or ~157,873,644 litres
Extra excise tax: 3.8 Bahts per litre
Total extra excise tax (based on 100% TAA flights affected): ~599,919874 Bahts
Total number of passengers carried: 4,326,526
Extra excise tax cost per passenger: 138.66 Bahts

Clearly, the additional charge of 150 Bahts is more than sufficient to cover the extra costs.

Still having problems.

Testing ... having problem uploading comnents since last night.

Now that TF&KM have increased their shareholdings to 32.4%, I don't think the sharks and shortists would try to ram the price down anymore. Would be nice though so that we can load up some more on the cheap.

It is amazing that there are people who worry about TF selling his shares to take profit. I wonder a little if he may want to privatise AA if only to simplify the listing process in HKEX.

I would not say that 4Q16 will be a disappointment compared to 4Q15 just yet based on the released POS figures. For MAA, the PLF is 2% better in 4Q16 than 4Q15 despite a capacity increase of 2%. Passengers carried actually increased by 5%. The indicators ASK and RPK are also superior YoY. Average fuel costs were lower YoY too, being USD75/Barrel in 4Q15 and around USD65/Barrel in 4Q16.

The indicators are superior too in 4Q16 compared to 3Q16 which offers reasons to be optimistic.

If the average fare and Unit Passenger Revenue for 4Q16 come in higher than RM164 and RM209 respectively, the operation figures for Y16 will not disappoint anyone.

For me, the completion of the 559m private placement is virtual confirmation that the AAC project is running along like clockwork.

Good. That way the whole AirAsia family will grow stronger and stronger as their planes spread wider and wider across the world.

Excellent ruling by the Supreme Court.

It is too soon to judge. A picture has been painted but how accurate is the picture really? Don't be so quick to condemn people.

Maybe there aren't any FF shortists around today. CW30 issued by MIBB (Maybank) expires on 31 Jan 2017. Exercise price is 1.58 and conversion ratio is 2:1. Based on Friday's close of 2.58, they would end up paying 50c per call warrant minus a small fee for management/processing. The closing price to be used to determine the actual payout will be the VWAP of the 5 days from today till Friday. The last time i took a casual count of the total traded volume of CW30 was just about 21m or more. Given that the total number they can issue is 100m, i would say the sold units would be close to 20m.

This call warrant exercise would set MIBB back $10m. So if the VWAP can be engineered downwards in these 5 days, they can save some money. But then a botched effort may set them back further.

I suspect TF is raising money to cover for all the charges that he will have to settle before he can draw down the proceeds of his personal offshore loan. He will need to pay for finder's and handling fees, stamp duties, legal and registration fees, consultants and kantautants, all of which will run into tens of millions. He would probably raise extra for contingent purposes.

Trump was crowing again on Twitter about how China will crumble in a trade war:

"In a week after I take office, China will slump. Factories will shut down, shops will close, stock markets will not trade, and government will grind to a halt.

The wealthy will flee overseas with their families, citizens desperately trade their currency for food, doors all across the country will be plastered with red notices and the empty streets will reek of lingering gunpowder.

The people, with nothing to do will turning to day-long drinking and gambling. Children will roam the streets begging for money. Sad !"
~

China foreign ministry: "That's Chinese New Year, you dumb dumb."

@$2.63/unit

Two transactions were done off-market yesterday totalling 5.2926 million shares.