TF&KM's $1+ billion cash injection into AA for the issue of 559m new shares subscription which has been slated to be during 3Q16 should be nearing completion by now. The proposal has been the main catalyst and underlying support responsible for the rise in AA's price since April from the 1.80 level to the current 2.80's because it has shaken off most of the market's misgivings by and by. Issuing of these new shares subscribed will be a notable milestone in AA's progress.

Dilution effect on share price should have been fully priced in already. Current price is still about 20% below market expectation for now, excluding annoying impact coming from 1MDB news.

Looking beyond that, the anticipated disposal of a majority stake in AAC and a corresponding special dividend payout to shareholders from the cash generated will keep the price buoyant for the rest of 2016.

Of course it is safer not to buy as you will never lose your money in a bet if you never put it on the table.

A minute's simplistic evaluation.

How difficult can it be for AA to ring up an average net profit of $400m for each of Q2, Q3 & Q4 of FY16? Add to Q1 actual net profit of RM877m to get $2,077m earnings for the full year and spread over the enlarged share base after the 559m new shares have been fully paid-up and issued to get approximate EPS of 62c. Multiply by PE of 9 to get fair price of $5.58/share.

Dark clouds looming in the skies? They usually pour down or blow away after a while but it is a transient thing. Either way the skies turn clearer.

Undergoing upward correction now because earlier market participants had collectively undervalued this counter. New participants with bigger financial clout have arrived on the scene.

Aisay, how lovely.

The Edge Msia picks BJCorp as Nomero uno for both lists of ... 20 Highly debt-laden penny stocks and 50 Net-debt penny stocks that are poised to rise in the near time ahead in its current issue.

What do you think?

Two seasons in one day, spring and autumn. Stirring and about to wake up, then suddenly dropping back to resting on his back. May get up later.

"Fernandes had not spelt out how he would fund the aircraft purchases, but typically, it would be via an aircraft funding scheme which could spread over some years nearing its delivery dates. With the new aircraft, he believed AirAsia “will hit 100 million passengers in the not-too-distant future”.

Last year, AirAsia carried 50.7 million passengers, which was an 11% increase from a year earlier."

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/14/fernandes-signs-two-deals-worth-rm61bil-in-2-days/

The share price may keep on rising a few cents a day for a couple of weeks more .. a month even or turn into a hellish roller-coaster ride. Come whatever it may be, I am bullish of a bonanza sometime down the road.

Typo error this afternoon.

Tony was talking about hitting a hundred million passengers a year not a million. Ok.

How to grow in the most dynamic region of the world for air travel in the immediate future if you haven't got the gall to expand your fleet to build capacity to meet the expected increase in demand? It us only natural to see the world's best low-cost airline taking the lead to oeder additional airplanes and jet engines in preparation for this future now. TF has a vision to fly a million passengers a year soon, double AA's 2015 performance. If you can take a moment to contemplate that and embrace his vision for AA, you may not want to sell your shares anytime soon. There are just so much more to look forward to besides the obvious positives that we already know of.

Look at the 'days hours minutes and seconds" countdown to the launch of the first draw. Haha, might as well be the countdown to price takeoff of Berjaya Corporation.

edkfc, you use monthly average exchange rates to estimate the variances of the USD denominated operational expenses for each month but for forex impairments or write-backs on loans in foreign currencies, you use the closing rates at the end of the quarters.

Towards end of August.

Sorry after double checking on the graph, I see that the avg USD vs MYR rate for Q2 is lower than Q1. So, good quarter for sure.

Not a bad 2nd Quarter although;

Jet fuel average price was higher than Q1.

USD vs MYR average was a few percentage points higher than Q1 meaning slightly higher costs. Closing rate for June was around 4 or slightly lower compared to around 3.9 for March, so expect some forex impairment on loans in USD. I am not sure whether they take the closing rate of 30 June or the weighted average rate of the last 5 days of June's closing. If the later then the impairment significantly higher like doubled.

Passenger loading could be a mitigating factor as it was apparently higher than Q1 or at least as good. However, I wonder about the ticket pricing and whether margins have been maintained.

Still, a record performance for a 2nd Quarter?

The LCCT2:KLIA2 spat between AA and MAHB has not blown the lid off. DS Liow has been even-handed and objective in his handling of the standoff so we are more likely to see improvement than deterioration of this matter for everyone.

I sold half of my AA shares before Brexit but have bought back a third of them so far. Will buy back all plus some more with the dividends this week since current price is low compared to valuation and consensus TP.

Berjaya Corp set to open Four Seasons Kyoto.

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/90701

Derrtan, please excuse the display format mismatch.

This is the part that I read fleetingly this morning in the RHB Malaysia Morning Cuppa - 30 June 2016 bulletins report.


From: RHB Research Institute
Sent: Thursday, 30 June, 2016 8:07 AM
Subject: RHB Malaysia Morning Cuppa - 30 June 2016

Top BUYs Shariah TP 3M
(MYR) (%)
AirAsia N 3.00 38.1

Catalysts
AirAsia should triple its profit in 2016, aided by: i) 33% YoY lower jet fuel prices; ii) improved load factors amidst capacity discipline by AirAsia and its competitors in Malaysia; and iii) reduced losses by associates aided by lower fuel price, capacity discipline and improving demand

A thousand apologies for my erroneous posting this afternoon. Have very absent-minded today. Should read "RHB IB latest recommended Top Buy - AirAsia TP 3.00"


Posted by ignissimia > Jun 30, 2016 01:42 PM | Report Abuse X

Public Bank latest recommended Top Buy - AirAsia TP 3.00

Haha. sell 3/100 of your shares now to lock-in the 1.08c/share dividend if you do not like to be surprised with a different payout either way.

If you hold on till div ex-date and the market price drops to 34c, you can still sell 3 shares for $1.02 and end up with more than $1.01 after selling costs.

But if the market price rises to 80c, your 3 shares will be worth $2.40 translating to an effective dividend of more than 2.38c per share after selling costs.

Who knows what's going to happen?

The carrying costs of the treasury shares (182 million) in the books totalled $130.399 million giving an average cost of 72c per share (rounded up from 71.65).

$0.72 x 3/100 = $0.0216 = 2.16c

Public Bank latest recommended Top Buy - AirAsia TP 3.00

Not fantastic but so so. Slightly better than 1c div.

The announcememt is a bit misleading. After reading all details, the yield is as good as 3% only because you are only getting 3 dividend in specie shares for every 100 shares owned.

All things aside, 6% yield. Fantastic!!

Not really, the way I collected for this counter, ie by dollar-cost averaging, my cost is below market price everytime a modest uptick happens. So I am quite comfortable 'gambling' here as you put it.

Increased my BJCorp holdings by 10% in the morning, buying in at 350 and 355. Quite cheap but buying slowly in case the price creeps down somemore.

Whether it is a trap or not, time will tell. However, the price of BJCorp had been dropping steadily throughout the time period/s when the shares-buy-backs were being carried out.

Closer to reality, perhaps there may be a price rally in sync with the launching of Vietnan's computerised lottery.

Do or don't do at your own peril, that is.

Time to grab some more scripts.

The tlme is nigh!

BJToto has a 20% stake in Berjaya Lottery Vietnam Ltd which has a 51% stake in Berjaya GTI which has an exclusive 18-year NFO licence to run a computerised lottery business in Vietnam which is slated to begin in July 2016.

That should stem the slide in BJToto price by making up for the slack in its Malaysian operations in recent years.

Brexit has been called already, no need to speculate on a change of scenario.

The same countries will still be where they are but the dysfunctional and unnatural alliance will be gone if Brexit triggers off the unraveling of the EU.

In the meantime, Britain will be on the move to grow competitively in their new independence.

Brexit is not that big lah. All these hoohahs are orchestrated by speculative funds hoping to make a killing, whichever side the Brexit falls. We shall see if Soros, his cohorts and people who ape what he does in market crises are going to have windfalls or eat their words.

It is not that easy to make your own markets anymore since 2008.

It is over. BREXIT.

LEAVE has higher chance. Happy.

Airbus is a French based company with manufacturing facilities spread out mostly in Europe. Airbus products are Eutopean exports so wherever you buy them from using whatever currency, the manufacturing costs are Euro-denominated.

If Brexit happens, both Pound and Euro will drop. Airbus planes and spareparts will be cheape.

Despite the glowing reports about BJToto 4Q16 results, QoQ and YoY wise, the picture of the full year's performance is dismal.

Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent for Y16 dropped to 306,183,000 from 361,610,000 the previous year despite revenue rising 5.3%. Earnings per share dropped to 22.70c from 26.86c previously.

So BJCorp will be getting less contribution from BJToto.

If price turns red today, I wont mind loading up some more for trading.

Next resistance level 2.89 at 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of drop from 4.200 to 0.765?

At times like this when the TA gives confounding signals against FA findings, the market swings voilently while the outlook appears rosy, the weekly and monthly charts can give calmer and more coherent pictures of the trend that is unfolding. The bullshits movements somehow fade away in the shorter briefs.

Hahaha. Truly fantastic. My secret hope.

The teasing run of the juddering uptrend in AA's share price has been intense and enjoyable so far and it is getting better. Talking about dividends reminds me of a fat dividend payout that is coming into our bank accounts on 29 of this month, and it is going to be much more next year.

Thinking of what goodies may be coming if and after AAC is sold in future begs you to hold on to the shares more tightly.

And what is this talk of a courier service in the making, the Redbox? I see, a new business venture, easily integrated with the core business operations. If built-up substantially could find a progressive partner in a fellow big brand name like Alibaba.

AA roadshows will be held in Malaysia, UK, Singapore, Hong Kong and the USA this year. People are starting to realise how undervalued AA shares are. So we can expect many foreign investors to buy AA shares soon. One or two 'huge' FFs could dry up the market in a jiffy.

Haha, would be mad to sell now.

Good, some FF may decide to park their £ & € in emerging markets for a while.

Not forgetting steadily improving associates' performances and potentially explosive contributions from China routes, the strong developing story of AACL, the monetisation of other AA's existing assets or even attributes, and new zany business ideas from TF out of the blue?

The boggeymen ... forex, oil and interest rates. AA manages these risks vey well and because of that, AA has strength in pricing tickets and stay competitive in the face of choppy movements in these factors.

Went through 2.50 without any fanfare.

Not selling AACL tomorrow but sometime in 2017 will be a better time after building up more assets n order books, and improving financial n management structures to command a better price to double the pudding. Then AA can easily payout $1 in special dividends with plenty left over to reduce borrowings.

Thst will take care of Tune Live's billion dollar loan too. The world is his oyster now.