Payment of $1 billion for 559 million new shares must happen first.

Imagine what will happen if Tony makes some definitive statements over the weekend regarding his $1 billion capital injection for the 559 million new shares and the names of successful suitors for AAC? There will be a furious scrambling for shorts covering and orders for new investment positions on Monday.

We are only blind about the timing. So dont bite more than you can chew to stay out of trouble.

Could have bottomed already but there has not been any sign of capitulation this time, so no call of a sure bottom yet. Not much shorting activities even though TA is so bearish because of countering strong FA. Shortists are not confident of making a kill because at this level AA and TF's bankers are ready to inflict maximun damage against any hostile predators should they try any foolhardy attack. The price movements are more likely in the control of an operator. The recent consolidation has become more severe than expected due to necessary repositionings to accomodate for changes in the operation environment. The game is not finished yet but if you drop your balls, it will be game over for you. That is how I read it.

People forget that AA is turning over the fleet by hiving off the older planes as the new neos are delivered. It is an upgrading process to be more cost efficient in the face of rising competition in the operating arena where you either survive or die.

There is an ongoing attrition process the background as well as the fleet builds up so the fleet expansion is not as aggressive as it appears.

http://agbrief.com/news/vietlott-launches-jackpot-lottery-hanoi

Excerps from a posting dated 8 Dec 2016 in the Viet-News;

"In the first day in Hanoi, the company achieved the sales of VND 1,689 billion.

According to the statistics, the lottery sales in Hanoi at the end of the date 5th December 2016 reached VND 1,689 billion, on an average of VND 11.89 million / terminal. It can be considered as a positive start for trading computing lottery of Vietlott in this market – the company confirmed."

11.89m x 150 = 1783.5m, so VND1,700m computes. This means the revenue collected in the first day of operation was about RM335,000. The net profit imputed at 10% will be about RM33,500 for the day.


Another new report posted by Asian Gaming Brief in the evening of 5 Dec 2016 stated that Vietlott's total revenue has reached VND1 trillion, presumely refering to Berjaya GTI's computerised lotteries only since it was qualified by "since its launch on July 18, 2016". I can assume the lottery business that BJCorp is engaged in Vietnam has collected a total revenue of about RM197 million during the four and half months of operation. Net profit so far about RM20 million?

I consider KYY a very good man basically and there are few like him around.

A kind hunter may give a young hunter one of his rifles to help him start off but the novice must learn and pick up the hunting skills to be able to use it reliably and productively over time. And expect to come back empty handed ocassionally some trips. A hunting trip may even end up with disaster.

It is not everybody's destiny to be very wealthy materially but we all have a part to play in this impermanent world and we can choose to make it a better place while we are here or the otherwise. Griping about failure and blaming others helps nobody especially yourself. You are supposed to learn from the experience to enrich yourself, afterall failure is the mother of success.

Market price to book ... discounted by more than 78%. Wonder what the actual RNAV looks like.

If can make good amount of money on BJCorp in 2017, will spend some time at Kyoto Four Seasons Hotel to enjoy the surroundings of the 800 year old pond.

Many players unwittingly cut profits instead, when they take profit.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/klcis-earnings-growth-2017-set-be-stronger-year-says-midf-research

http://stockaholics.net/threads/the-deadly-art-of-stock-manipulation.2089/

I am glad somebody finally say it. Running an airline isn't everybody's cup of tea and neither is investing in airline stocks.

I started buying back when price went below 2.60 and stopped it went below 2.50. Started again when the price rebounded after touching 2.32 but will stop if price breaks below 2.28. PE is below 3.05 now based on TTM and current share base. Never expected this much price retracement with all the 'works in progress' ongoing fairly smoothly and predictably but it should be very healthy and good fof the next rally. I am glad to be able to buy this cheap probably for the rest of the year. It is quite surreal tbh but I'll take it as my X'mas & new year present. It will be really nice if there is an uptick in early January and a modest rally in February.

I am not making a buy call.

Ok, now the boss is talking with the share price rising,

Cheap fuels when the energy landscape changes in the not too distant future.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/energy-%E2%80%98tsunamis%E2%80%99-threaten-drag-oil-down-us10-engie-says

Typo correction to a previous posting .... 51% balance instead of 5% ...

The so called losses are just resultant figures from the remeasurement exercise due to changed conceptual treatments in accounting. Perpetual bonds are treated as equity instead of debts in accounting.

Not really losses but leasing charges by MAA to IAA which were previously booked as revenue and subsequently reversed out to be converted into perpetual bonds together with other loans made by MAA to IAA, all of which had become doubtful in the eyes of GMT then and also in response to Indonesia's DGCA requirement that IAA 'address its negative equity position'. Perpetual bonds was proposed to go around the problem of a foreign ownership limitation of 49% there.

MAA promptly subscribed to and took up 49% of the p bonds while the 5% balance would be taken up by the local interested parties or farmed out to new local investors which obviously could not be counted on as we now know. The p bond just taken up by MAA is the remaining 51% ?

Game over? Hardly, I would say. It feels like a party is just about to begin. Let the loser FFs go. The stronger FFs will be back again as buyers after the season's break as the party hots up. Whoever is behind TF can gobble up everything the sellers can put on the table like a tiger eating mosquitoes.

Yahooooooo. More to come.

Chill, everyone. We are all brothers and sisters. Tis the season to be jolly and Santa Claus Tony is coming to town soon to deliver X'mas presents to all of us, if we are good. Besides, CNY is just round the corner too in January 2017, so we need to Fa Ta Chai to be able to celebrate the new year to the hilt. Tony has to double as Chai Shen too. December 2016 and January 2017 gonna be sweet. God bless all.

Talking about patterns, 2010-2011 happening again?

I am staying and will reshuffle my portfolio to weight more on AA should the market let the price slide.

Read it in the news a few months back. Cannot remember where I came across it.

After the big gains in 4Q15 and 1Q16, AA rewarded all their staffs with a fat bonus and payrise in 2Q16 which dented the profits a bit.

Moreover, 2Qs are typically slower business periods and therefore tickets for these periods are priced lower to promote air travel which show up as weaker numbers in the Average Fare, Ancillary Income Per Pax, Unit Passenger Revenue and RASK indicators. A higher load factor indicates a higher efficiency of revenue generating resources allocation and a higher number of passengers carried indicates a bigger size of the market served.

AirAsia's 20% dividend policy excludes non-core profits including non-cash forex gains if any. So, TheEdge's dividend expectation for AirAsia is not correct.

That was a correct thing to do if that was what you wanted to do.

It wasn't that complicated. Danny keyed in to sell before the trading session had opened. Queued sellers and buyers' bids were confusing and wide apart. Frantic to sell before a potential steep dive, his remisier probably advised to key in a low enough sell order for a surer sale to happen.

Another trader or investor had other ideas and decided to sailang all the sell orders at and below 2.53 and altogether 72,500 units were matched at the opening price of 2.53.

Danny's sales had been done 2.53 obviously.

Warren Buffett had been allergic to airline stocks for 2 decades or so and has now flipped his opinion to take up stakes in 4 American airlines recently. You can bet he is going in for the long term for someone whose policy is to hold forever stocks he picks that prove to be good.

He must have been convinced by the favourable parameters he sees in the working environment that airlines will be operating in. In fact conditions will be better than he thinks since he had not expected Trump in the White house. Oil will be far cheaper with Trump backing fracking and coal mining and the US economy will finally perk up and boom with all the new expansionary policies in place. The whole world economy will be lifted by them.

Google 2016 us election results live

How much collateral damage will AA suffer for being caught in the crossfire between Tata and Cyrus?

If Penta converted all their 176.6 million ICULS(2%) to ord shares on 10.06.2016 and their name does not appear in the list of the Top 30 Shareholders as at 29.07.2016 in AR2016, it does not necessarily mean that they have disposed off all their shares during the period in between.

They could have parked the shares in, say, 10 accounts with several brokerages so that they become virtually invisible (the smallest account in Top 30 Shareholders had only 29.47 million shares). The total holdings to start with was not substantial either being less than 5% of total BJCorp issued. We can only make intelligent guesswork about what could have been going on.

I still hold AirAsia (53%), BJCorp (32%) and Evergreen(15%). Stocks 70% and cash 30%. Was holding Hevea and Supermax until recently.

I hold mostly good fundamental stocks with upsides imo which have not materialised yet. What I plan to do is premised on a Trump win which I believe is a preferred outcome for USA and the world in the longer run because I think he will reset the system on a re-configured footing to enable healing of economies and improved relationships between nations.

However, because he is the 'lower' people's choice and not the establishment's, it is more likely to trigger a backlash from the establishment which includes the Wall Street and the community of funds who may lead a market selldown everywhere, perhaps for a short time only after which the markets recover. Hence, opportunitues to buy back with profits.

If things turnout more severe and, God forbid, spiral down into a prolonged market correction, then anyone who reads the signs correctly will stay on the sideline and be spared the deeper pain.

I dont want to be a wet blanket to anyone.

On top of the domestic problems facing us, I also worry about the many uncertain factors outside Malaysia like the US election, US & Nato provocations against Russia, veiled US threats against China, EU banks troubles, post-Brexit transition period, Fed action in near term, to name a few ... all of which may wear down confidence in the world markets and turn sentiments super bearish in a jiffy.

I have sold 30% of my porforlio stocks in the past few days but undecided on how much more to sell before the US Presidential Election on 8 Nov. Although it appears that Clinton has an almost unassailable lead over Trump now, with most of the liberal media biased, and women and ethnic minorities cool against him, I am pivoting on a strong "back from the brink" Trump win.

A Trump win will relieve the tension along the Russian border with Europe and generally with US, but because the establishment, Wall Street and the elites are riding on Clinton, such a shock can precipitate meltdowns in world markets if kneejerk reactions go awry and uncontrollable.

I want to be able to pick up stocks come Nov and Dec if opportunities arise.

It is very prudent of TF to time the closing of the AAC deal and the drawdown of his private loan to be at a time when the Ringgit is weakest circa 2016 year end to maximise sale proceeds from AAC in Ringgit term and minimise loan burden in USD term.

The Ringgit closed at 4.0315 and 4.1355 against the Dollar on 30th June and 30th September respectively this year based on BNM forex rates at 1700Hrs closing records. Therefore there will be an impairment loss of about 2.5148% on the 42% of unhedged portion of AA's USD loans which were reportedly standing at MYR9.26 billion as at 30th June 2016. Changes in the loans total amount are not reflected since there should have been pay downs and new loans taken in the 3Q16. This unrealised forex loss will be around MYR98 million in 3Q16.

However looking 2Q16 result details, AA made MYR122 million in Forward Forex Contracts. Since conditions had been similar in 2Q16 and 3Q16, they could have repeated another wonderful gain to offset the impairment again.

The average forex rate for the 2Q16 and 3Q16 were 4.0067576 and 4.0506161 respectively, a weakening of around 1.08276% and therefore a slight increase in operational expenses. I notice the opex wwere higher than 1Q16

I am no expert so don't take my word for it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-rebound-never-happens-210000064.html

Agreed. TF with his AA family must take on the role of 'guardian of low cost with no-frills air travel' to fight against all dark forces threatening this lifestyle which has brought so much joy to many after being 'fiscally' enabled to fly more frequently.

Market has already discounted AA's price for the dilution since the shareholders approved the 559m new shares subscription to be issued.

It wouldn't be a bad idea to ipo AAC on the Singapore or Hong Kong Stock Exchange and let AA's shareholders participate in the listing with rights to the new shares instead of a special dividend.

A public listing can provide an array of different options to reward TF, investors and ikan billis' while retaining majority control and ownership of AAC which can still be sold at anytime later when it has grown much bigger in line with AA's expansion plans and indeed the region's aviation industry.

AAC appears to be in good hands. To divest now may be a bit premature, afterall the unit is still growing rapidly, healthily and yet to reach its prime.

While JPMorgan, the IB's analyst is calling for a Sell with a TP of $2.50, JPMorgan, the investor may be accumulating more AA shares through HSBC Nominees (Asing) accounts.

The concerns about associates' performances and intense competition raised by the analyst go against the reassurances that TF has given us. It is up to you to place the weighting on who to rely on more. Concerns about forex fluctuation are just part of the daily business running of an airline which are well managed within AA. Disposal of AAC completely may reduce the net profit by $300m annually but if the whole proceeds are used to retire borrowings, the interest costs will be reduced by about $240m and because of the improved balance sheet, the company will be re-rated with a higher PER. Alternatively, the cash can be returned to shareholders in which case it is capital back in the pocket first.

I rather hold tightly to my stocks in hand than be worried by others' misgivings.

Looks like JPMorgan Chase Bank is quite firmly invested in this counter. From what we can see in the 2014 and 2015 annual reports, listed under the Top 30 Largest Shareholders were;

As @18March2016 (2015AR) - Total 3.78% seen in 3 of the Top 30 ACs
9) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (TAIWAN) - 40,754,500 (1.46%)
11) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (U.K.) - 38,801,117 (1.39%)
15) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (U.S.A.) - 25,891,887 (0.93%)

As @17April2015 (2014AR) - Total 3.27% seen in 4 of the Top 30 ACs
16) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (U.K.) - 31,690,317 (1.14%)
26) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (Australia) - 21,890,770 (0.79%)
29) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (U.S.A.) - 18,712,115 (0.69%)
30) HSBC Nominees (Asing) S/B - Exempt An for JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (Rep of China) - 18,116,700 (0.65%)

The number of shares actually increased to 105,447,504 in March 2016 from 90,409,902 in April 2015 even though their Australia based holding account disappeared from the latest list of the Top 30 Largest Shareholders.

JPMorgan Chase Bank is one of the big four banks in the USA and operates as a multi-national corporation with total assets worth more than USD2.4 trillion. They probably yawned though the whole period when AA was trending down and eventually crashed to MYR0.765 last year before recovering to the present level.

2.97 Gapped up close. Announcement tomorrow?

When asked what AA will do with the money from the divestment of AAC during an interview with The Edge (reported in the current issue), TF quipped that he 'may buy an airline with it'.

Now, I wonder if he was speaking in jest or maybe in truth in a veiled manner. Is there an airline up for graps anywhere in North Asia presently? This might tie in with his dream of an AA North Asia and a HK listing?

Still good when closing price stays above the SMA50 trending line, I suppose.

Since Feb 29 this year, the price has always closed above the SMA50 although the intra-day low price poked through on two days being yesterday and the day before that.

Sep 06: SMA50 2.865; Low 2.830; Close 2.860; BollB 3.302 3.010 2.718

Sep 07: SMA50 2.871; Low 2.840; Close 2.920; BollB 3.303 3.009 2.715

Sep 08: SMA50 2.879; Low 2.900; Close 2.940; BollB 3.303 3.009 2.715

The up channel looks unwavering. Today, the Momentum(14) and RSI(14) are at their lowest points for the whole period since Feb 29.

By virtue of being a long term investor in a particular counter, you would also be a 'stockist' of that counter's shares. You will therefore be able to 'short' the stocks that you own without having to go through RSS system and being bound by rules.

When you short a stock, it means you have the intention to buy back your shorts and the purpose is to make money in the completed process.

You won't influence the market trend unless you are a sizeable substantial shareholder but you may make some money by selling first and buying back at lower prices if you call a counter's downturn correctly.