The forward P/E is unusually low at 3. Profit has increased significantly year on year. Gearing is low and fundamentals are solid. The only problem with this company is that it lacks analyst coverage. They are quite reluctant to meet analysts from what Ive heard. The upside is tremendous when that changes

That's why it has never paid a dividend something which is highly unusual among listed developers that are profitable

Almost 1.5 times of market cap and that excludes off balance sheet debt from their spv . They are the ultimate gurantor for the spv debts and the real figure could be significantly higher

Heard that KTT daughter has more influence in the company compared to the eldest son. OLS previously played an important role in the company apparently. It seems that they are going to do another round of placement. Fund managers have visited them recently

Ooi lay see is the unofficial second wife of dato Khor and apparently I've heard there is a power struggle between her children and the first wife children . The battle royale shall be interesting to watch

Tambun will be the biggest penang based developer by market cap for some time . It's difficult for Hunza to catch up as they have enlarged the share cap after the placement. Market cap is almost 100 mil bigger than Hunza now which held that title for 10 years . I don't know who is manipulating the share price but apparently both the boss son have worked in investment banks before

Generally reports dated more than 6 months are useless . Two sets of quarterly results have been released since then and they have been dissapointing

I don't know who is the rhb anaylst that wrote this and where is the person now . I do know the rhb anaylst that covered Tambun ms loong . She had made a deputy director of research . I can perhaps try to ask her

This is such an old report beyond pathetic mr chua 77 this analyst would have been sacked by now judging by the share price

If Ivory ends up the full year with an EPS of 2 sen based on ytd performance, it will be valued at a p/e ratio of 30 at 60 sen. Most if not all of last year profit came from one off revaluation surplus. Its cash flow from operations had been negative for quite some time. P/E of 30 for a small cap developer is very high. Tambun is just trading at a multiple of 10 and the same applies to Matrix. Borrowings of 380 mil is worrying as Ivory still has off balance sheet debt through its SPV.

it will collpase soon. Putting aside the higher RPGT rates, transactions volume have slowed down substansially in the last few months especially on penang island and KL. These measure are too stringent on the market and will have a disproportionate impact on Penang island , KL and Iskandar when it bursts. Highly leverage developers may face a liquidty crisis.

I wish to reiterate that I have nothing personal against Ivory. My appraisal is a professional one and a few people have concured with me. The share price has indeed lagged behind other property counters in the last 2 months.

Yes you are correct. Bond yields have moved up and the cost of debt for a company like ivory will exceed 10 percent easily . This is a process that may take some time as they need a rating from ram first . They cannot simply do another rights issue as their did one not too long ago and shareholders will be asking a lot of questions. Risk aversion will become the norm soon

DBKL denied that it has done any transaction with Ivory.

Syndicate ran away . Good luck to shareholders

Of course. Cannot get things right in Penang market and yet want to venture into Klang Valley. Investors know better. They are only getting a syndicated loan of 200 mil. Another 200 mil will probably come from a rights issue. good luck to the shareholders again. Two dilution in two years.

Well doesn't look like it will go down well with investors . Market appetite for risky acquisition is not there anymore . don't forget there is a serious oversupply of office space in kl

Two rights issue in two years ? Shareholders appetite may be waning as economic sentiments are moving south fast .share price ex rights issue will make it a penny stock at 20 to 30 sen

Profit from operations of 10 mil is respectable. The revaluation of 100 mil plus doesn't count thought. Analysts only looks at normalized profit excluding revaluation

It shows very clearly that this stock is being artificially pushed up by syndicates .

It is almost back to 50 sen the level in which the rally started and its only a matter of time before it does

Finally a regression to the mean

Ultimately all companies are valued by future cash flow regardless of nta

The gurney paragon mall is definently worth more than market cap of 400 mil plus still smaller than Tambun. However their result had been quite dissapointing lately . Having high Nta is one thing realizing it is another

Not sure but the underwriter of the private placement is rhb. I am not sure how controlled the share is but the stock has been illiquid for quite a while . However unlike Asas it does not look like a compelling privatization case

Not sure but I do know their placement will be sold to individual investors not institutions . I have a friend working on their placement

Not sure about that . However if they don't launch new projects fast investors may treat it as a defacto REIT and reits don't fetch high valuations as they are not as exciting

You have a point . Not sure about kl but they are taking forever to evict squatters in a huge plot in Penang

Minority shareholders that don't agree may try to push up the share price

It is way too cheap I agree. This company has a hell lot of landbank in Sebarang Perai Selatan within a reasonable distance from the second Bridge. These land has not been revalued yet. Revalued NTA can easily reach RM 3 something per share

placement done at 1.80? What fireworks? They will be lucky if shares don't go down. The discount is substantial and it represents almost 10% of the share cap. Rental income forecast looks a bit optimistic to me at the moment. The analysts should go and have a look at crowd in the mall itself. Crowd size is not that bad but I was expecting more. Lets not forget that their neighbour next door is the Singapore government who can more than afford to play an attrition game with them.

70 mil in rental income? You gotta be kidding me. Even Pavillion RETI normalized PAT is around 50 mil a year only. In fact, the rental for the Gurney Paragon is even lower than the older Gurney Plaza next door.

This is quite a substansial discount to its 14 day moving average which is a typical benchmark to price placement. However, the recent rally was fuelled by the excitement of the Gurney Paragon opening anyway.

Rental income from the mall has to be be good . The company is running out of projects under construction unless they can settle the mess in the bukit jambul land

Fireworks for gurney paragon opening I guess

Sorry never looked at it before . But ivory is getting crowded around this level . Nominal price may look cheap but market cap is not . It's even higher than IPO in fact Although recent earnings are below IPO levels . Don't forget about their 1 for 1 rights issue

It has tried to breach 70 sen many times in the last two weeks but there are many sellers at this price . Perhaps it is beginning to get too out of sync with fundamentals . The latest poor quarterly result may not be the past. However, there is no fresh developments to indicate that the company has a bright future either

Lets see how long this wayang kulit charade can last. Market will certainly have a major correction by Q3. Even Bursa valuation is looking stretched now let alone Ivory's which is trading at a P/E of 30-40 based on last quarter result

I am too professional to be attached to any of my investments . The word sayang sounds quite childish

What a lame joke . I've never liked this counter. Don't insult my intelligence. There is such a huge divergence between price and fundamentals. history has showed that the more a counter is artificially goreng , the harder it will fall. Looked at how fast it fell from 80 sen. Do tell us when you bleed and hemorrhage on this counter one day. the cash flow of this co is already bleeding.

Manufactured volume . a lot of shares are also coming out at this price . Poor fundamentals still don't justify this price and there have been no fresh developments

Likelihood is high . There is nothing tangible to sustain the recent rally anyway

Of course the contra players are liquidating especially those that bought at almost 70 sen last week . uptrend is highly unlikely given the sentiment now

The stock is sideways due to lack of fresh positive developments albeit with a downside bias

I've checked the shareholding list of ivory and it has minimal institutional shareholders . Retailers are normally short term and they tend to exit quickly and drive down the share price more

Bnm is clamping down Althogh najib may not want it. Zeti is a fiercely independent governor Developers with shaky fundamentals will usually get hit first especially those that are valued based on chart rather than fundamentals

I mean take chances

You mean you have no holding money? You better choose stocks with stronger fundamentals unless you want to take changes with 3 day contra.

In other words, most of the shareholders will be retail punters now instead of institutions. Stocks like these have huge downside risks in a bearish markets as retailers have no holding power

This stock has become technical instead of fundamental since the 2nd half of last year when profit started to become inconsistent unlike its peers such as Hunza , tambun and asas which still depends on fundamentals. Punters may need all the luck they can get. Global markets are very volatile now.