Agree wks8732!

Wa rm7 today can reach

Lai lai lai... rm7 very soon

Considering wks8732...just that i also hold other good counters and can also bring down my cost further. Need to toss the coin la perhaps

Dont la...But i think Betta at least tried and make sense of things and contributes well to the forum... i appreciate that. However, should still come out to say his bits if he still hold the shares. Nobody can get everything right anyway

Agree, i have been suffering for a while, but still holding every unit of this share at 41 cents! But still got hope la this counter to make decent return

Wa dompeilee makes tons of $$$ ... congratulations

Betta said he will only cutloss when he meets his TP of rm1 ma...

Need sifu Betta68 to return to give us his valuable analysis

Margin for Huaan is quite good. Coking coal prices is low while coke prices are quite high

I also stuck at 0.77... time to buy more. Really bottom out recently and moving fast now!

Agree with mikekim...the silence is defening. The Management owe a duty of care to all stakeholders.

Good times are returning???

Management kept buying back its shares...

Yes, great opportunity to collect more now!

saw stockraider in other counter... he should should return here to give this counter a morale booster. No shame in getting stuck with losses here, not many can hold up their heads to say they make money elsewhere these last few months...

More hot stuff will come!

Betta68 sold his stakes dy, i think...

Yes best to get more when below 0.8. If patient and can hold, can get big return!

Buy call from who?

I believe many still hold this share but staying low and waiting for the next wave. Thats why dropping by once a while only...

Thanks for the updates and all your efforts Mr. Sslee. Appreciate that you will let us know their replies once you received it. Thanks

Interesting comments SuperInvestor9. So, what would be your recommended position for this counter? Is it overpriced now at 0.415? If yes, at what price shall be buy? Please advise. Thanks

Most people here already abandon ship???

Hahahaha...3iii, is still waiting to collect at his price at 4.60. Got to admire his persistence.


3iii Target price. 4.60 to 6.00

16/05/2018 12:20

1MDB audit report declassified...market fly kikiki

Yes, rm2 otw surely!

Thats the problem when EPF is involved in the regular buying n selling of this counter. Nevertheless, with the oil price spurring O&G activities, Armada should be due for strong movements up soon.

Close at 50 cents today???

Time to sailing HY again raider???

At last...rm1 on the way with stronger quarter report soon!

Monday huat ah!

dragon will soon be added to the light blue list soon... 5 more days...what are u waiting for ??? Kikiki

Tongkarat,

Yesterday was at Lembah Pantai ceramah at Kerinchi... the heart of the working class malays. The turn out and support for Tun Mahathir was amazing! The tide is really turning. Semestinya...ini kali lah!!!

Great work by both Tongkarat and Sslee!!! Much appreciated.

Aiyo...people who have no HY shares can also have vested interest ma... kikiki

Nobody is asking for fairness. Just not to cheat or steal and have integrity. You mean people with 2.6 million donations, rendering the nation's institutions useless and not functional, telling all sorts of lies, diamond ring, yatch, bribes etc etc is absolutely fine? And dont say because it cant be proven thats why its fine ...

The word tricks is just being nice. Outright cheating and stealing is more apt! It is wrong and unacceptable to implement "strategies" to deceive hoping not to get caught. Its is such thinking that could cause our country to go to the dogs!

Continued...

What I know is that selling prices for paperboard products has started falling this month, even as demand remains strong. Customers are holding back, sensing that prices will retrace in line with the lower waste paper prices.

For the longest time, this is an industry where selling prices are marked up by a margin over cost. Over time, it has a fairly stable but competitive margin. Case in point, Muda’s EBITDA margins ranged between 10.3% and 10.9% from 2012-2016. It actually fell to about 9% in 2017 (on average) despite rising sharply to 11.3% in 4Q17. Adjusted for extraordinary items, Muda’s net profit margin stayed between 1.5% and 2.5% and ROE between 2.7% and 3.9% since 2012.

This is why I do not expect the higher EBITDA margin in 4Q17 to be sustainable, even with higher demand for paperboard product. Barrier to entry is low and there is excess capacity. Indeed, paperboard prices have started falling in March, mirroring the drop in waste paper prices. The lag of several months is not unusual as selling prices adjust and margins will normalise.

To understand this better, you need to look at its competitors. Oji Holdings is one of the largest players in Malaysia, it is the largest pulp and paper manufacturer in Japan and one of the largest in the world. Its net profit margin has also been consistent, between 1% and 2%. Chart 2 shows its revenue and net profit margin for the past 10 years.

Finally, Chart 3 shows the relative valuations of companies operating in this space, using my EV/EBITDA and EBITDA growth trade-offs. There is no reason to believe Muda is relatively undervalued.

Perhaps there is more to this than meets the eye. Perhaps the incredible rally recently has nothing to do with its latest results after all. Perhaps the spike in interest could have been driven by a possible merger and acquisition instead?

Guys,

What are your views on this? He does not seemed too excited about MUDA. Read the last parts too. "no reason to believe Muda is relatively undervalued"?

"Perhaps the spike in interest could have been driven by a possible merger and acquisition instead"?


Tong's Value Investing Portfolio
Update: 15 Mar 2018

Value investing requires looking beyond the headline numbers

This week’s article comprises of 2 sections. The first is a lesson on how we can be misled by reported financial numbers, the second on our macro outlook for emerging markets.

Two weeks ago, Muda Holdings reported a set of fabulous financial results for its financial year ended 31 December 2017. Revenue grew from RM1.22 billion to RM1.45 billion, up nearly 19%, but pre-tax profit more than doubled from RM31.5 million to RM65.4 million. Even more impressive, net profit shot up from RM18.8 million to RM58.8 million or by more than 200%.

Its stock price nearly doubled, from RM1.30 pre-results to as high as RM2.47 in less than a month, with analysts universally bullish.

The reasons articulated by management and analysts for the strong performance were that costs fell with the lower price of waste paper used for the paper mill recycling while selling prices for paperboard remained on an uptrend. Demand for its paperboard product, used for making corrugated boxes, will grow as e-commerce takes greater hold in Malaysia. On the other hand, waste paper costs fell due to restrictions on imports imposed by China arising from environmental concerns. This resulted in excess supply outside China.

Whilst the arguments are sound, the actual reasons behind the improved reported financial results has more to do with non-recurring items than the underlying operations of the business, specifically, the net charge and one-off insurance compensation for a fire that occurred at the company’s plant in Tasek in August 2016.

Net loss from the fire totalled RM11.8 million in 2016 and depressed that year’s earnings. As a result, pre-tax profit fell from RM41.1 million in 2015 to RM31.5 million in 2016. In 2017, Muda recognised net compensation claims of RM23.3 million, which accounted for 36% of the year’s pre-tax profit.

Combined, the depressed base of 2016 and the compensation gains in 2017 resulted in the tripling of net profit. It also explains why 2017 has a low effective tax rate, of just 8% compared with 34% in 2016.

How do we know all these? It is right there in the explanatory notes of their results announcements to Bursa – item 4 on page 10 of its 4Q16 release and items 1 and 6 on pages 14-16 in the latest 4Q17 results.

In Table 1, we revisited the historical financial performances of Muda and show what the results would have been if we “normalise” it by adjusting for the non-recurring and extraordinary items (since fire at the plant must be non-recurring).

Pre-tax profit would actually show a slight decline from RM43.3 million in 2016 to RM42.1 million in 2017. Net profit would have increased by 15.9% instead over 200%. This is still commendable, just not what was inferred originally. But besides earnings, one must also look into balance sheet. Net debt for Muda increased by more than RM85 million to RM526.2 million. Why?

Aside from capex totalling some RM74.5 million, inventories and trade receivables both shot up by RM58-64 million each, or more precisely by 29% and 27% y-y, respectively. It suggests customers are paying up slower and sales are lagging production, resulting in built up inventories. What could account for this? What I know is that selling prices for paperboard products has started falling this month, even as demand remains strong. Customers are holding back, sensing that prices will retrace in line with the lower waste paper prices.

Surely keep, or buy more on further dips. Waiting on big news. But must have holding powers.

Good one raider... just hold and wait to it to explode again or buy more on further dips. If got the holding power, sure win!


stockraider PROJECTING MARATHON OIL COST INTO HY BASED ON COST ON REFINERY, THE FAIR VALUE OF HY SHOULD BE RM 33.2 PER SHARE LOH...!! 

IT IS NO WONDER PETRONAS 300K BPD COST RM 64 BILLION LOH...!! 

PETRON COST FOR 90K BPD COST RM 14.0 BILLION LOH...!! 

ALL THESE CAN BE SUPPORTED BY COST OF MARATHON OIL PAID TO TAKEOVER REFINERY LOH....!! 

REFINERY SHOULD BE VERY VALUABLE FOR NEXT 30 YRS LOH...!!

02/05/2018 11:09

Wonder what causes 3iii to be so optimistic of PR's success...

3iii A change in government is very likely. Given the uncertainty with any change, the market will be sold down during this period.

02/05/2018 09:58

Ada 0.33 cents today meh???

Dedak in play at Rantau dy la... How could this happened?!

Not disappeared but too busy with politics! Even in this forum!

Now is the time to collect more. At the current oil price which is likely to be able to sustained at this level for the near to mid future, and positive better quarterly results in the next few quarters, its a no brainer.

Fam Jenny, actually, the truth is, he really like u... kikiki

Your source chun or not ???

SCK82 Inari Surge now, inside news, they get new product. HUA WEI

24/04/2018 16:17

What happened??? Someone pushing up!