shit - the ah tiong effect not strong enough to hold back this counter
my nenek moyang also help me...
adui....
i need to balik dong san...

you know BlueFun, last time, i should have listened to your advice to sell GOB.
Anyway, just asking, do you think we can get Gadang at RM2.20 to RM2.25??

@ BlueFun, you and i are long timers at Gadang - do you think can get at RM2.20 to RM2.25?

good morning....THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FALLS BY NEARLY 400 POINTS~!!

hopefully, can collect on discount tomorrow.

you can trust me...normally, gadang will release during 3rd or 4th week of Jan'16.

that is why i do not believe in these heresay.,,,

waiting at RM2.20

Hi guys, just wanna check whether my calculation to get the PE is correct or not?
Qtr Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders
30-11-14 $8511
28-02-15 $16168
31-05-15 $24552
31-08-15 $20862
Total $70093

Total issued share capital: 235113

EPS = $70093/235113 = $0.298124732

Current share price = $2.44

P/E (trailing 12 months) = 8.184493744

Is my calculation correct? Please help to advice.

@ superman99, just asking - how do you get the PE7.5 at current share price of RM2.44? Thanks.

SuperMan99, email sent. Thanks bro. Let us have an intellectual discussion... :-)

hehehe...turbulent spotted in the horizon - china share market closed on Monday - 1st day of trading of 2016 with 7% drop in the shanghai composite index...what will tomorrow hold? a big discount for CCB????

shit - this is really sad...whoever buy this company...really jialak~!!!!!

@ superman99, i have just enabled downloads for the gdoc.
Looking forward for your research article. Thanks.

Just click on the link below >>>>> then, go to "File" >>>>> then, Select the option "Download As".

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11o6fG1fe_k9JdFLXhuou-WyXftzmuGTa9mubeCLehe0/edit?usp=sharing

Hi SuperMan99,
This can be found in the Annual Report FY14 on note 19: Trade Payables and Other Liabilities

This is the extract from page 65:
Included in other liabilities above is an interest-free amount payable to Mercedes-Benz Services Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. (“MBSM”) of RM41,735,452 pertaining to a revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility. A pre-determined interest-free period has been granted by MBSM. Any unpaid amount over the interest-free period shall be disclosed as borrowings in Note 21, if any.

Subsequently, in Note 21:
There is zero borrowings...hahahahahaha

@ SuperMan99, i think it is quite safe to park the money here for 3 to 6 months to enjoy extraordinary capital gains - aka to ride the mercedes sales growth....and "cabut" after that...for long term, i prefer Tambun Indah - even though it is a property counter but it is more like Matrix - it has got everything to offer - growth, constant dividend payout, good corporate governance (unlike that stupid GOB~!!), exposure to mainland Penang, Tambun Biscuit...it is hard to buy into TamBun Indah at present price of RM1.40 if not for the property crash, frankly, i am just here at CCB for the quick money.

apini - Tambun INdah banyak cantik...

I am just thinking about the interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility from Mercedes. mmm...it seems that CCB can draw down the loan facility to run up the inventories and this is interest free...probably this is a corporate level agreement between Mercedes Daimler AG and Jardine Cycle and Carriage...cool...

Hi guys,
I just wanna share my findings for Cycle and Carriage Bintang Bhd. Please feel free to disagree with me.

I am trying to guess what is the FY16EPS and PE? Please refer to the GDoc link below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11o6fG1fe_k9JdFLXhuou-WyXftzmuGTa9mubeCLehe0/edit?usp=sharing

What is the expected net profit p.u. for FY16?
• FY15 is the watershed year not so much because of the higher sales volume but rather a favourable shift in the sales mix to higher margin products. Hence, net profit margin (%) improved to 3.5% (RM3.5K profit per motor vehicle sold for FY15) vs. 1.1% (RM1.1K profit per motor vehicle sold for FY14).
• If you ask me how i derived the RM1.1K / RM3.5K profit per motor vehicle sold, please refer to the GDoc link above. Basically, i just divide net profit over total sales for both FY14 and FY15.

• What this means is that CCB does not need to sell as many cars as the improvement in net profit margin can make up for it. This is important because FY16 is challenging in terms of car sales.
• For prudence, we used RM3K of net profit p.u. for FY16 (a 16% discount to RM3.5K).

How many cars can CCB sell for FY16?
• Mark Raine (VP Sales & Mktg), “I see a good opportunity next year (2016) for us to chart growth in our sales and we are eyeing to beat the record we achieve this year for 2016”. Source: The Star.
• Despite the optimism by Mark Raine, the macroeconomics for FY16 will continue to be tough.
• If we refer to FY14 and FY15, the average sales per month is 851 units.
• For prudence, we use 850 units (kasi satu free).

How much is the EPS for FY16?
• EPS for FY16 = ((850 units x 12 months x net profit of RM3K p.u.) + (dividend: RM11,229K))/ 100745K = $0.42 = round down to $0.40.

How much is the PE ratio for FY16?
• Assuming if we use a PE multiple of 10, hence, fair value should be 10 x $0.40 = RM4.00

Is a P/E of 10 reasonable? I think so because:
• Trailing PE to date = (share price = $3.38)/ (EPS for FY15 = $0.50) = 6.76. We are just 3 more multiples close to PE 10.
• In addition, CCB has a sustainable competitive advantage over its closest rival, HapSeng Star and this justified P/E of 10.

Hi guys,
I just wanna share my findings for Cycle and Carriage Bintang Bhd. Please feel free to disagree with me.

What is CCB’s sustainable competitive advantage over its closest rival, Hap Seng Star?
• Personally, I don’t think the competition for CCB comes from Audi, BMW, Volvo and Volkswagen but rather losing the market share to HapSeng. This is because Mercedes nailed the design and this is evidenced by the good sales achieved in FY14/15.
• To recap, CCB is a 49% shareholder in Mercedes Benz Malaysia S/B. In addition to the guaranteed annual dividend from Mercedes Benz, CCB is entitled to draw down on the interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility from CCB.
• I suspect this facility is not made available to HapSeng Star as this sort of transaction is not considered arm’s length.
• After digging through Hap Seng Stars: CCB’s sales outperformed HapSeng exponentially from FY13 to 3QFY15. The only year that CCB lose out to HapSeng is on FY12. Please note both companies used the Dec as the year end.

CCB (sales revenue $’000):
3Q 2015: 1,192,398 (+28% more than HapSeng)
2014: 922,463 (+25.8% more than HapSeng)
2013: 644,976 (+6.5% more than HapSeng)
2012: 656,192 (-16.2% lower than HapSeng)

HapSeng (sales revenue $’000):
3Q 2015: 858,730
2014: 684,030
2013: 603,078
2012: 762,755

Will there be any SPECIAL dividend of RM1 plus to be paid during FY2016?

It seems now that all their cash is tied in inventories but inventories turnover days is more than 1 month (44 days). I don't think this is high risk because after all, Mercedes Benz is the one who bankroll them and ask them to party on and Mercedes Benz stands to gain because their car sales went through the roof but it is better to keep vigilant on this.

Due to this short term liquidity issue, i don't think they can pay special dividends during 2016. In addition, if CCB wants to repatriate its profit back to the parent company, Jardine Carriage in Singapore, it needs to declare more dividends to make up for the shortfall caused by the weaker Ringgit. It is reasonable to wait for 2017. Also, in the Q3’15 Qtr report, CCB has mentioned it wants to expand its distribution network.

There is a possible short term liquidity issue and inability to pay special dividends during 2016:

Following CCB's rapid growth in FY14 to Q3FY15 (sales increased by 77.4% to-date), the Trade Payables and Other Accruals have increased significantly by 70.5% from RM119.3M (FY14) to RM169.1M (Q3FY15). In addition, they have to draw down a Banker's Acceptance of RM30.0M.

There is not enough cash on hand to pay off Mercedes Benz but i suspect Mercedes Benz is the one that ask them to party on.

Per Q3'15 report:
CCB has failed the acid test because:
- Trade AR and Other Receivables: RM94.9M
- Cash on hand: RM37.2M
- (excluding inventories because inventories are not considered liquid especially Mercedes Cars and motor vehicle spare parts);
Total = RM132.1M
- less: Total liabilities: (RM217.3M)
Total = shortfall of (RM85.2M)

The answer is:

Interest free hire-purchase floor plan facility granted by Mercedes Benz.

Hence, upon closer scrutiny on their Trade AP and Other Accruals (note 19 to the Annual Report for FY12 to FY14), CCB is able to use its position as a 49% shareholder in Mercedes Benz to draw down an interest free loan from Mercedes Benz in the form of an interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility (i don't know what is that...).

That explains why Accounts Payable increased by RM37.2M (without a corresponding reduction in Trade AP turnover days) which help to boost the Operating Cash Flows significantly to pay off the Banker's Acceptance of RM90M in FY14.

Using this facility, CCB has managed to reduce the cash conversion cycle from 85.7 days(FY13) to 39.3 days (FY14).

@ SuperMan99, i am quite intrigued by what CCB has done in FY14 - whereby it paid off the entire Banker's Acceptance of $90M using purely operating cash flow. If proven, then this company has the hallmark of a franchise - which is what Warren Buffett coined a company with an enduring competitive advantage.

Just imagine the ranks of MAtrix Concept, Gadang and Tambun Indah.

Upon closer scrutiny on the Cash flows Statement for FY14, it seems that they are able to negotiate better terms with their Trade AR and has a good standing with Mercedes Benz Services.
- Firstly, CCB started off FY15 with a huge O/B of stock (from FY14) and they pared down by $31.7M. Consequently, there is a quantum improvement in stock turnover days from 81.6 days (FY13) to 44 days (FY14). This means they are selling like crazy and evidently, FY14 sales has improved by 42.3% over FY13 without the corresponding increase in Trade AR. Indeed, Trade AR stays largely the same btw. FY14 (RM50.3M) vs. FY13 (RM51.5M),
- they managed to reduce their Trade AR turnover days from 29.2 days (FY13) to 19.9 days (FY14) which shows they have amazing bargaining power over their Trade Receivables, but what is even more amazing is this:

- they managed to increased their Payables to RM37.2M as shown in their Cash Flows Statement. But then, we expect to see that their Trade AP turnover days to shrink considerably but the Trade AP turnover days remain largely the same at 24/25 days for both FY14/FY13.

How can this happen??
(I have shared the gdoc link here to the above ratios)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11o6fG1fe_k9JdFLXhuou-WyXftzmuGTa9mubeCLehe0/edit?usp=sharing

this is scarier than The Conjuring...

One thing i like about CCB's annual report is that it is
- transparent, and
- easy to comprehend...hahaha

definitely not an expert in car...indeed - i drive around in a beaten down 1996 Proton Wira...hahaha

But from a layman's perspective - the market for Mercedes is definitely niche - very high end sort of market.

For the C-class, it is not fair to compare mercedes with Hyundai, Mazda, Honda (all those korean and japanese brands) - it is an insult to the brand.

Mercedes must be compared against Audi, BMW and Volvo, those continental brands specifically targeted for the high end, exclusive and niche market segment.

I think Mercedes is actually competing against these 3. Then, we have a fair comparison.

The total available market (TAM) is indeed the summation of Mercedes, Audi, Volvo and BMW.

Please exclude volkswagen (it is the people's car (tank) in germany - hahaha).

At superman99, it seems the are able to pay off the RM90M banker acceptance in FY2014 is mainly due to
- converting the entire tarfe AR into cash payment, very high AR turnover and low AR turnover days,
- not spending much on their inventories since there is a build up in FY2013. Hence, they just run down the inventories in FY2014.

However, the have managed their AR, AP and inventories quite well during FY2015.
I will share more in the Google Docs.

However, now there is a concern about how many mercedes Benz they can sell next year.

This ...I agree . it is quite true that the P/E has dropped throughout FY2012 to FY2015. As a matter of FAC, the cash conversion cycle gas improved during FY 2014 and FY2015. I have performed the computation and will share via Google doc. But then, I am quite worried about the no. If Mercedes Benz that they will sell next year 2016.

Interesting article: but don't know how true is it???
http://www.malaysiandigest.com/business/582983-mercedes-benz-malaysia-optimistic-to-sell-more-cars-next-year.html

Mercedes-Benz Malaysia Optimistic To Sell More Cars Next Year
GEORGE TOWN: Premium German carmaker, Mercedes-Benz Malaysia Sdn Bhd, is upbeat on its sales for 2016 after 8,200 units were sold until September this year.

Its vice president of sales and marketing Mark Raine said he was optimistic of the growth in sales next year as the demand for the locally-produced models – such as the C, E and S classes – was still there.

He said after achieving about 65% sales increase year-on-year for 2014 against 2015 – the group would continue to expand to meet demand.

“I see a good opportunity next year for us to chart growth in our sales and we are eyeing to beat the record we achieve this year for 2016,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Maritime International Showcase today.

He said the group currently has 28 showrooms nationwide and planned to open a few more to provide better services to the customers in line with the strong growth potential.

“We opened a showroom in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, last week to ensure better customer satisfaction,” he said.

He said the group has introduced an E-Class model (Edition E) and two diesel models (E300 hybrid and CLS350).

“The launch will offer our customers more models to meet their personal requirements and needs which will contribute to our growth,” he said.

For the third quarter this year, Mercedes-Benz Malaysia’s year-to-date car sales jumped 70% to 8,196 units from the 4,817 units sold in the same period of 2014.

actually, it is hard to say that CCB is a cyclical stock - 2015 was very tough on the economy - logically, CCB sales should suffer since mercedes benz operated in the niche and premium market segment. But then, 2015 proved to be a good year (in terms of sales and profit) for CCB despite a tough year on the economy. So, i don't think CCB is a cyclical stock.

i think HapSeng Star is a greater threat to CCB.

Hi Superman99, just asking, please share with us how do you get the PE of 13.964? is it the 6 years average PE? just take the EPS for all of 6 years and divide by average share price?

In summary, what i am trying to say is that
PE = 6.18 = share price of RM3.40/ EPS of RM0.55 (annualised) = 6.18
However, this EPS is based on the best performing year 2015. Assuming if we maintained this PE of 6.18, for the share price to remain constant , then 2016 needs to be operating at this level of EPS RM0.55 to justify this share price.

So, what is the most reasonable PE to use and what is the expected EPS for next year? Assuming if we use an EPS of $0.40, and a PE of 8, then, we can achieve RM4. But then, how do we justify a PE of 10?

Hi guys...just wanna ask -
most the of the TP price quoted here (range from RM4 to RM5) is based on PE & EPS valuation. The problem is that FY2015 is the best year for CCB. I believe that if we based our TP of RM4 based on the best performing year (2015), then, what happens if CCB cannot sustain their EPS performance for FY2016?

What i am trying to say is that we are using a past performing PE to judge the future share price. Then, we adjust the PE multiple from 7 (current P/E) to future PE of 10. What justifies this adjustment?

No doubt - the guys from Mercedes is saying 2016 is going to be comparable or better than 2015. But the macro economics outlook does not support this. I am not an expert in cars - so , i cannot comment on the automative industry. Indeed, i just drive around in a 1995 proton wira.

Assuming if PE is just 8. Let us not compare the PE of CCB with UMW (Toyota) or other car Korean Cars or Japanese Cars distributors as what Superman99 has done. THey are serving the mass market whilst CCB is serving a premium high end market. Assuming if we reduce the EPS from $0.55 (annualised per SuperMan 99) to $0.40. This will only generate RM3.20 which is considered fully priced in by the market now.

I do not know which PE to attribute to CCB. Of course, if we use a PE of 10, then RM4 is easily acheivable assuming if FY2016 will generate RM0.40 EPS.

How do we justify using a PE of 10???

@ superman99, however, given that 2016 is a hard year - how many people really wanna buy high end cars? furthermore, what is their forward booking?

if the company has got RM3 per share and current market price is at RM0.60, why no corporate raiders raid the company to take control of its cash ?

If it is too good to be true...it really is~!
this is the case when a sow (Female pig) can also climb trees...

Anyway - happy new year 2016 to all. This is my last posting for GOB and i will NOT be visiting GOB thread anymore. Don't care liaw....sell already...the BK Land disposal is so bloody cheap....no comments.......will not be visiting this GOB thread anymore.

Wishing you a happy and prosperous new year 2016. Huat arrrrr~!!!

Huat arrrrr~!!! Huat arrrrr~!!! Huat arrrrr~!!! Huat arrrrr~!!!

now, i know why the Batu Kawan land is disposed so cheaply at approximately RM30 per sqf. The purchaser is Batu Kawan Development S/B.

A while back , during Oct 2012, Malton enters into a RM3.8Billion JV with Batu Kawan Development S/B - the one who purchase the land from GOB. BKDSB’s entitlement under the JDA is 18% of the GDV of the Proposed Development, subject to not less than RM300 million, which represents the minimum return expected by BKDSB from the Joint Venture.
http://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-news/2012/10/31413/malton-batu-kawan-team-up-for-rm3-8b-project

I hate to speculate - but it maybe probable that Malton receives some form of kickback from this BK land disposal at the expense of GOB. (maybe contribute lesser to Batu Kawan Development S/B??? in exchange of them having 350 acres of land at such a cheap price???)

Well....looking at the series of events, i think that despite GOB is going to be in a net cash position in 2016, its future endeavours is questionable as it is highly likely to be used as a front to benefit Malton.

I maybe wrong but when in doubt about the company's fundamentals and management - better cash out.

@ Lamborghini - that is a nice one - hahahaha - watch it like 24 hours security

waiting at RM2.00

@ chankp7010,
about the JV with Lembaga Getah at Jalan Ampang. It is not as clean as it seems.

For the Jalan Ampang project, GOB actually roped in an investor to provide the financing for the project. From what i know - it seems to be like a convertible preference shares - whereby it gives the right to the investor to receive coupons during the early stages - and when the project matured - the investor has the right to convert to become a preference shareholder. Come and think about it - it seems the investor is better protected than the shareholders. Of course, during the initial part of the project, it is the same like servicing a loan. Instead of paying the interest to the bank, you pay the interest to the investor. When the project progresses and the risk becomes lower, then the investor maybe able to convert to preference shareholders. But the funny part is that if the investor did convert, the profits for the Jalan Ampang development may get split (i am not so sure about this part). That means - you and i (who are the ordinary shareholders) will not receive that much as we need to split it with the investor. I would rather opt for them to issue loans/ debentures to do this as to protect the profits from being thinned out.

I am not saying this is wrong.

Just imagine - if they do not "diversify" into PNT and F&B, the issuance from rights call coupled with the sales proceeds from Da'mein can get channeled into the Jalan Ampang project and the BK project.

For me, investing is not supposed to be constantly trying to second guess the directors. It is supposed to be done in confidence -whereby you are confident that the directors are out there - working hard to maximise the shareholders wealth.

Honestly, i felt very tired - so, i sold off everything. It is better that way. I admit - i am defeated and therefore, i surrender.

In conclusion:
If you take into consideration their rights call , then their diversification into F&B and PNT, the disposal of Da'mein with unfavourable T&C, the disposal of BK land - ....you come to a conclusion something is not right with this company's management. Seriously, there is something very wrong with this company. They are essentially stripping assets from this company - building up a huge cash pile for future endeavors. But then, if the recent article in Focus Malaysia is anything to go by - please don't expect special dividend payout. Rather, the monies will be used to buy Desmond Lim's privately held land. Whether this is going to be a profitable endeavour, i really do not care and i don't give a damn since i have sold everything.

Sometimes, i think ....what if i hold back and sell when the price gets more solid? especially in the first half of next year when the company turns into a net cash position. But then, i seriously doubt if next quarter's result will be good - i suspect it may turn into a loss making quarter given that they still need to charged off some costs for Da'mein and their F&B is dragging them down. Anyway, i really do not care and i don't give a damn since i have sold everything.

That is all i want to say.

For the rights call:
Now, if they managed everything properly and not to diversify into PNT and F&B, they may not even need to dispose Da'mein (especially on such unfavourable terms) and to keep this crown jewel for recurring rental. I am not saying the disposal of Da'mein is wrong - indeed - it pays off the loan - but i am questioning the rationality of the management. What are they trying to achieve? Whether they have put to good use the resources that they have?

Perwira Nadi Trading:
If you look at the balance sheet, there is a purchased goodwill of RM30M for the purchase of Perwira Nadi Trading - their Corningwell business. This means they overpaid PNT by RM30M for what is essentially a distribution business - distributing Corningwell plates, bowls, glasses, cups, "sah pou ang chang"...How many of us (forumers), restaurants and hotels in Malaysia is using Corningwell products? How many of us routinely changed our plates, bowls, glasses, cups, "sah pou ang chang"? My house is using free Jacobs plate - the one given free when you buy a few tins of Jacobs biscuit. I mean - is it worth to pay such a huge goodwill? RM30M?

For the disposal of Da'mein:
Firstly, when they do not have enough monies - they perform a rights call. It was written very clearly in the rights prospectus that they need the money to develop BK land (which they sold off) and to develop Da'mein. Eventually, rather than keeping Da'mein, they decided to sell it off. Even the disposal of Da'mein is not a clean sale. There are T&C which is deemed very favourable to Pavillion REIT.

Please ask yourself this question. For the last quarter, why they want to charge some of the costs associated with Da'mein to P&L instead of capitalising as part of property development costs? Conventional accounting states that you charged to P&L if you are not confident on making profits. You need to expensed it off. I am not saying they may not profit from the disposal of Da'mein. I am just wondering why there is this peculiarity? In addition, the mall is slated to be open before CHristmas. But then, until now, it is still not open yet. Sometimes, i doubt they will get the full RM488M.

The reason given for the disposal is "due to entries of new major players into Batu Kawan and coupled with the challenging / weak market condition for properties, hence, it is decided in the best interest of the company to dispose". What stupid reason is this? If management is serious to divest loss making businesses - the loss making F&B division is the first one to go. If not for the F&B losses, last quarter should be in the black. If not for the F&B business, the company does not need to incur such a high OPEX and will make even more profit. The F&B business (and to a certain extent, the trading business) is bleeding this company. Why they want to hang on to their F&B division but to sell off their crown jewel? For their F&B Grandmama - i have eaten there before and seriously, it has got nothing to shout at. Nothing special and it is deemed relatively overpriced. This sort of logic does not make sense.

I have followed this company for close to 2 years and i have just disposed my entire shareholdings plus warrants.

This is about trust issue - i totally have NO confidence in the management of this company.

No doubt, after disposing Da'mein, the 2nd parcel of leasehold land at Sri Kembangan and this Batu Kawan (BK) land, this company will be in a net cash position. What they are going to do with this cash makes me worried simply because this company is acting as a front for Desmond Lim's group. So far, their actions show they are not really acting in the best interest of the shareholders but rather benefiting Malton and Pavillion.

For the disposal of BK land:
The BK land is a CROWN JEWEL for the company. The average price per sqf hovers at the vicinity of RM10 and is expected to go lower once they exercise the option to purchase additional parcel of land at BK. Low land cost is a sustainable competitive advantage. As more development takes place at BK, the land price will gradually appreciate and this will naturally expand the gross profit margin. Current market price is already RM45 psqf and that is the reason why they make a RM41M profit selling the BK land. This shows you how cheap their land cost is. But then, they have sold off the main reason why i buy this company in the first place - which is the BK land.

@ hng33, why are you buying?

@ hng 33, what prompt you to buy? you are a smart man....please share your reasons lar..do you foresee another rise?

Something is brewing in GOB...it is busy building cash pile

Hi Koon Bee, which stock name to click on??? I am looking for the headlines covering for the last few years....not just recent ones....