Azura,

I don't know of any screen. May be try gurufocus. Did you email me?

Posted by BearbearDrop > Nov 12, 2015 08:37 PM | Report Abuse

I had to make 25% per year
How can I do it


Use the Magic Formula

Posted by Azura11 > Nov 13, 2015 08:37 AM | Report Abuse

hi kcchongz, may I know your email? is it this one ckc14training@gmail.com?

Yes, or this one

ckc14training2@gmail.com

shinado,

I was using a dividend yield of about 3% fro the 30 stocks which form the component stocks.

However, that is just an estimate of a one-year dividend yield. I should use a DY of 6% for the two years period, which would have lessen the loss of KLCI to about 4% for that period.

shinado,

Very good investment strategies. Well done.

Your strategies are very safe. Plus they have high probability of meeting your goal of doubling your money in 5 years, or likely better as you have considered many aspects of investing like a businessman.

"Take care of the downside, and the upside will take care of itself."

That is exactly what you are doing, and investors should do, rather than following the greater fool theory.

Just a comment about your Graham growth model. In Graham's time, most stocks did not grow fast at that time. Nowadays, many stocks have high expected growth and Graham's growth model will give you very high intrinsic value with high growth, and often is not justifiable. Try do some sensitivity analysis you will understand what I mean.

Hence I used to advise that this formula is not recommended to value a stock, but merely as a check on how rational the price of a stock is. It was strictly emphasized by Graham too.

Well done shinado.

Good place to start for all newbies in this treacherous journey in investing.

I have been through that too.

buffett_jr,

Well done in your analysis.

It doesn't mean more complicated analysis is better.

Your simple analysis is very good and it is good enough.

DCFA is like another wedge in a golfer's bag, good to have but not necessary as he still can play a good round of golf.

Great comments below from shinado:


Posted by shinado > Nov 7, 2015 02:30 PM | Report Abuse

"Must have brands" and "big name designers" usually equal more $$$. In this kind of economic situation that our country is facing, do we buy really want to spend more on items that we might just not need?

“We buy things we don't need with money we don't have to impress people we don't like.”

Companies are cutting down on cost and laying off people. Even the government has announced budget cuts for some gov departments. Surely a typical working class Malaysian will be affected by the economic situation as well. They will be looking to buy something for a great value, like Padini which still have brand recognition. Padini knows the market needs and cater well to them.

ks55,

Parkson used to flying high in the mid 2000 when the economy of China grew at more than 10%.

Unfortunately good days never last. With slow down of China economy and the steep competitions, its growth faltered.

I don't remember I said Parkson is such a good company now. May be I did mention that it was cheap, and with good cash flows.



Posted by ks55 > Nov 7, 2015 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz -- Thank you to write about Padini, I am in total agreement with you Padini is a growth stock and having potential.

I also come across you did mention Parkson Holding Bhd as a good stock. I believe Warren Buffet of Malaysia Mr Tan Teng Boo thinks alike, so icap bought into Parkson Holding Bhd at average cost around 5.2 ringgit a piece in 2007/8 and still holding until today.

So based on your understanding on Parkson Holding Bhd, it should be as good as Padini as a growth stock.

May I ask what could be the reasons Parkson Holding Bhd's share price drifted until 99 sen? Surely there must have something go very very wrong.........

I would like to locate the pitfalls for counters having similar symptoms in Bursa Malaysia and to avoid mistake. Tq.

shinado

Use this

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp



Posted by shinado > Nov 7, 2015 10:00 AM | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz, great analysis on Padini. I do have a question:

What is the formula that you use for ROIC? The one that I know of is this:

ROIC = NOPAT/Invested Capital

whereby,

NOPAT = Operating income - (1 - Tax rate)

Invested Capital = Total Asset – Current Liabilities – Excess Cash

and whereby,

Excess Cash = Total Cash – MAX(0,Current Liabilities-Current Assets)

There are so many formulas and interpretation for Invested Capital especially and it's rather confusing. Based on the formula above, I am getting roughly 30% in ROIC whereas you get 40%.

I hope to hear your feedback on this matter. Thank you.

Posted by hissyu2 > Nov 5, 2015 12:14 AM | Report Abuse
Sir, will this be useful for REIT as well? REIT is usually investing a lot and generally the CAPex will be relative higher... Anyway, as long as the company or REIT didn't have negative cashflow for many years, it should be "safe"... negative cashflow could happen or beneficial if we are seeing acquisation of new facility/warehouse ?? Pretty hard for a newbie like me to take a balance of them sometimes, for cases like this which is a little bit tricky...


I don't see any problems for Reits to have negative FCF because of the reinvestment needs for buying more properties, provided that the money invested yields good return higher than its costs of capital.

The problem is for some manufacturing companies because of the economics of the business, are continuously required to reinvest in machinery and equipment just to keep the doors open, and results in persistent negative FCF.

Posted by digiuser016 > Nov 2, 2015 01:48 PM | Report Abuse

hi kcchong how do you determine the growth rate for this company ? thank you

The growth rate determination is an art because it is about forecasting the future. If you are interested to invest in a stock, use conservative assumptions, and if you still find a wide margin of safety, it is probably a good investment.

sense maker,

Long time no see. Thanks for your valuable input.

Posted by slater > Oct 29, 2015 05:52 PM | Report Abuse

Dear KC,

Good Evening !

Companies that do share buy back has confidence in their own business

Will the share buy back increase the EPS & NTA ?

What is the good and bad thing about share buy back ?



Generally yes, but not all the time. I have seen company buying back shares but the major shareholders sell. Something is not right.

If company buy back shares when they are very cheap is good, otherwise no. Sometimes because the management may have a lot of shares from ESOS, they want to jack up the share price to sell. It is very common, I think.

Share buyback will increase EPS, and NTA of outstanding shares in the market. if the bought back shares are redistributed as ESOS, or sold to the market, then there is no effect.

Why did I think of 10 years?
Yeah, my CAGR calculations are not correct then.


Then the dividend stocks do not seem to provide better return than the broad market.

But that is also because you assumed those dividends received were consumed, and not reinvested in any form. If they are invested, the CAGR would be more.

One way to do is to use internal rate of return to calculate the rate of return.

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 28, 2015 07:12 PM | Report Abuse
When did I disagree most of time? I agree with you on vs, and agree with OTB view also

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 28, 2015 07:13 PM | Report Abuse
Pls talk with fact

Are you talking to me?

Was I talking to you?

Are you having the nick names of I_like_dividend, donfollowblindly, truthseeker1 and what f which I referred to?

Use this in your spreadsheet to calculate

CAGR = (EV / BV)1 / n – 1

Where:

EV = Investment's ending value
BV = Investment's beginning value
n = Number of periods (months, years, etc.)

Yes, I checked again and I think my calculations are correct, except I made a mistake for Spritzer which should be a CAGR of 10.4%.

Company Initial price Final price Capital gain Dividend Total gain Gain% CAGR
SHL 1.48 3.12 1.64 1.34 2.98 201% 11.7%
Spritzer 0.91 1.94 1.03 0.515 1.545 170% 10.4%
Lysaght 1.00 3.52 2.52 1.475 3.995 400% 17.5%
Yee Lee 1.64 1.85 0.21 0.52 0.73 44.5% 3.8%
Scientex 0.63 7.67 7.04 1.965 9.005 1429% 31.4%

Average 14.9%

The average CAGR of the portfolio is 14.9%. You could have keyed in some wrong inputs.

Good work.

I have a few comments

1) I have some different number on CAGR. May be you could check your calculations. Basing on your price and dividend data, my figures are:

Company Initial price Final price Capital gain Dividend Total gain Gain% CAGR
SHL 1.48 3.12 1.64 1.34 2.98 201% 11.7%
Spritzer 0.91 1.94 1.03 0.515 1.545 170% 7.9%
Lysaght 1.00 3.52 2.52 1.475 3.995 400% 17.5%
Yee Lee 1.64 1.85 0.21 0.52 0.73 44.5% 3.8%
Scientex 0.63 7.67 7.04 1.965 9.005 1429% 31.4%

2) The average CAGR is 14.4%, way outperformed the KLCI's (including dividend) CAGR of 9% during the same period.

The 5.4% difference, and compounded over 10 years, makes a hell of difference.

For example, If you have invested RM100,000 into a portfolio of those stocks above 10 years ago, it becomes 384k, compared to 240k if you just invest in the 30 stocks in KLCI.

3) If you compute the future value of dividends to year 10, say just put in FD at 3%, the CAGR will be more.

Dividend yield investment strategy does seem to work for your stocks too.

Posted by I_like_dividend > Oct 27, 2015 04:06 AM | Report Abuse
Agree with paperplane2 chosen stocks are bias and DY figures fake one.
More like cost DY than TTM(present) DY.

Of course when we back test to check if dividend yield investment strategy works or not we have to base on the dividend and its price sometime ago, then with the share price and dividends received until now we can check if that strategy works or not.

How to check if we are basing on dividend now and share price now. Don't we need time to check?

You always follow blindly, agree agree and agree. But everything I wrote you would disagree, disagree, disagree. You are just like your twin brother here:

[donfollowblindly has left a new comment on your post "Roti Canai” Dividend Yield Investing Strategy My Experience kcchongnz":
Agree with paperplane2 chosen stocks are bias and some stocks DY figure is fake one.
Posted by donfollowblindly at Oct 27, 2015 03:28 AM]

And also where is your triple, truthseeker1 or something?

I think you have a quartet brother too, what f or something

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 26, 2015 09:15 PM | Report Abuse
Bias, how come u did not show high div yield stocks at a time then crash??

The article is to share if a DY strategy would work by back testing a portfolio of stocks, whenever the time it is now. It is just some rough numbers, never meant to be an academic research or what.

It never meant to be a game of playing around if the market is up, down, boom or crash. And what crash you are talking about? When was the "crash"?

But if you want to see if this strategy still works if there was a market correction, you can refer to this link here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/81690.jsp

Yes, it still worked very well with a return of 95%, compared to the flattish market over the same period.

But that analysis was not done purposely to check if it works during a crash or what (what crash?),but purely because I was writing an article which used the portfolio as an example.

"Sell in May and go away", but do not forget to come back in September was a famous academic research paper by my supervisor, Professor Ben Jacobson, a Dutch national originally, when I did my master in finance.

The paper shows statistical significant in most of the developed and developing countries in the world. He actually have made money doing some fund management with one of his students.

But bear in mind a couple of things:

1) the countries under study were mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, US and Europe in particular where there have their summer holiday starting in May.

2) Any of this anomaly usually will be quickly arbitraged away when something is made popular,and yes, the future will not necessary be like the past.

3) Whether this phenomenon still persists i do not know as the paper was published about 10 years ago.

Keep this comment as a record first.

Posted by I_like_dividend > Oct 27, 2015 04:06 AM | Report Abuse

Agree with paperplane2 chosen stocks are bias and DY figures fake one.

More like cost DY than TTM(present) DY.

Wise words from a wise man


Posted by pisanggoreng > Oct 25, 2015 04:52 PM | Report Abuse

'head I win and tail I don't lose much" style of investment

I always follow this principle to invest because I don't like to run and do not know how to escape during the market price crashes

so I play safe, the company I invested in must have (i) yield at least better than bank SA can give you,(ii) foreseeable growth for the coming year 1 or 2 years , (iii) buy in at a reasonable price based on the valuation techniques I had learnt from your article and (iv) wait patiently for your turn to enjoy your harvest.

you must know, every investment needs some luck. God need time to decide who should take the money. it is definitely not those who can't wait.

do not tell me , how smart you are to have made 100%, 200% or 300%,..
just refresh the history of datasonic or prestariang, there are buses of people making that score including me.

conclusion:

SAFE money is always better than FAST money. sometimes SAFE can be fast also

LUCK IS UNPREDICTABLE. Stay safe and sleep well and keep good health to enjoy your winning

Posted by DreamPredator > Oct 25, 2015 01:54 PM | Report Abuse
5 years time, KCChongNZ? I invested 200k in a penny stock in October - November 2013. And it wasn't even the Mother stock, but a newly issued Warrants. By mid-August 2014, it was worth 565k. Now why wud I want to bother with a strong-fundamentals 3rd liner, mid-cap or 2nd liner giving roti-canai dividends & then hv to wait for 5 years for it to double. That is, IF it does ever double.


Wonderful. When are you going to write a book to teach us your strategy?

Posted by geary > Oct 25, 2015 11:03 AM | Report Abuse
Berkshire never paid dividend for years, because the management retained 100% of earnings and reinvested or allocated all the $ into fantastic growth companies. The rate of return keep on increasing, and the return average above 20% per year. The stock has a market capital of above 100 million per lot. Dividend is like father giving a bit of "ang pau" to his children. Company that can generate fantastic growth of EPS is the right one to invest and the ROE and ROTC automatically increased.

Great point. I used to use this argument last time as I did not believe in dividend.

Just make sure that the manager of the company you invest in, which does not pay dividend, is a good capital allocator like Warren Buffet.

And more important, is a credible CEO like WB.

Posted by DreamPredator > Oct 25, 2015 08:39 AM | Report Abuse
Dividend investing is only for roti canai & teh tarik money. For serious money, there is only capital appreciation.


Yes, capital appreciation is also important as it is part of the total return. But what drives the capital appreciation of a stock, or rather which is more reliable factor which cause the share price to go up if you invest for long-term?

Don't you think say in 5 years time if the dividend is double, share price will double due to that?

Posted by Kevin Wong > Oct 25, 2015 08:51 AM | Report Abuse
Dividend investing is also win-win way of making money.
Good karma everybody!

Great comment.

Yes, you are sharing and enjoying the growth of a company giving growing dividends to every shareholder.

You are not "beating" others to make your money.

A win-win way.

Thanks Kevin.

Posted by Probability > Oct 23, 2015 05:02 PM | Report Abuse
Good one there Ezra....
It made me remember all those true warriors who would have lost in a battle. Specifically - battles for a good cause.

Yeah, people, including me, who buy a certain stock are confident, or could be overconfident about the stock. There may be something we are not aware of which may not be good for our investing outcome.

What I was trying to do is to show some of the concerns about the stocks so that they have different perspective and can form better judgment.

Of course i could very well be wrong because as a non-shareholder, i don't know much about the stock but merely from the financial statements, like what icon said.

But how come they took at as if I was trying to talk down on their stocks, and used all kinds of flowery phrases? And even called me names?

But never mind, as properly advised by a few good guys here, I just have to move on.

Thanks Probability.

Ezra, that is inspiring. Thank you.

Posted by valuelurker > Oct 23, 2015 04:02 PM | Report Abuse
There will always be people who will doubt you. Especially the more right you are. Don't spend all that time answering the critics. Save your energy for something more useful. Time is of the essence

You are absolutely right. Thanks.

Posted by Icon8888 > Oct 23, 2015 02:52 PM | Report Abuse
I bought at 140 after carefully studying KC's article

That is the difference between a smart independent thinking individual who can take other people's opinion constructively but study careful for himself and makes his own decision.

I didn't read anything like bullshit, misleading, stupid, or any other degrading words used although I wrote something not positive for stocks you hold.

Posted by thebadguy > Oct 23, 2015 10:17 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, I appreciate and respect the articles you have put in here on i3. However you should let this one go. Your analysis of VS was not wrong, but as you say you can't predict the market, and continuing on this route is a dead end.
Would also like to point out to everyone that people who can donate 50 million ringgit style of investment is most likely very different from ikan bilis. They are most likely privy to a lot of information that is unavailable to you.

Thank you very much. You are a good guy.

Posted by king36 > Oct 23, 2015 06:21 AM | Report Abuse
KCChong. Another good article.
Can u share how do u get ROIC, EV/EBIT and EY from your table above?
I am a newbie in stock & not very figure good. But you explain FCF and ROE above well.
Sometimes, I see some ratios like total debt/EV, or net debt/EBITDA or net debt/FFO etc. being negative. How’s possible?
Still hazy and learning.
Thank you in advance.

I am puzzled why your comment was flagged. Something wrong on the quest of learning?

Learning those stuff is easy if you are prepared to spend time and effort. There are plenty of resources out there in the internet. You can refer to some links here if you want to hear my opinion:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50101.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49016.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51631.jsp

It may be better if you can get some proper guidance to shorten your learning curve.

Knowledge is powerful, and this is important too. Do not let others tell you otherwise.

Posted by Money Face > Oct 21, 2015 10:37 PM | Report Abuse
KC, stop talking cock lah. When V.S was 3.80, you said this stock not good, blah blah, blah, write articles with sophisticated analysis. After Share Split , now 1 share is 7.60. Please don't write article as if you want to share your knowledge to educate people for free. Your ultimate objective of writing so many things is to entice people to pay you money so that you can use it to invest and make yourself richer. Luckily I didn't listen to your nonsense and sell V.S


"Talk cock"? Please see this statement just published in i3investor.

Posted by coolio > Oct 22, 2015 11:58 AM | Report Abuse
KC, please keep doing the good things you are doing now. I know you will just ignore those annoying sound out there, you know your quality.
I just want to take this opportunity to say thank you again because recently I have achieved 7 figure in my investing journey...hehehe.. Thanks for your investing methods, no 8 wonders in the world is really amazing!


and please visit my most recent post below and see all the comments here.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/84797.jsp


And don't forget to read this article which was specially dedicated to you and I have yet received any response from you on the questions posted to you yet.

Oh yeah, please do read the comments in this article dedicated to you if you haven't, and if you have, read it again.

pputeh,

Since you are so kind to me, let me take some time to answer your question below.

Posted by pputeh > Oct 21, 2015 09:30 AM | Report Abuse
ibkeat, agreed with you, good company and market leader. However wonder why directors not having any coperate exercises like other furniture companies to make the shares cheaper & more liquid by declaring bonus, share split or warrants. At this price not many can buy with quantity to be invested in company.
Hopeful they will be pro active. Lets wait and see for the good news if it will come.

If the directors of a company are all the time thinking about jacking up the share price by having share split lah, free warrants lah, instead of spending time and money to improve the performance of the company, avoid the stock like a plague.

First of all, that is the duty of the director; how to do well in the business. Share price will follow.

Secondly, corporate exercises like share split and free warrant doesn't add a sen of value to shareholder, except for trying to jack up the share price of the stock. Please read here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/79280.jsp

The thing is that you won't know when the music stops, and the ones who control it and would grab the seats are you-know-who.

Thirdly, if the company directors have to give in to big investors' wimp and fancy to have these types of corporate exercises, they aren't credible.

Fourthly, what liquidity are you talking about? Don't have RM6820 to buy 1000 shares of Latitude at RM6.82? How much do you have, RM2000? Can't you invest in 300 shares?

Fifthly, corporate exercises require the service of investment bankers. They don't come cheap. You know at whose expense?

Spare some thought on this statement below:

[Posted by xuewen > Oct 21, 2015 01:39 PM | Report Abuse
split and free warrant is a way to sapu money]

Thank you for all the kind words; some from my course participants, some from my friends and e-friends who have been continuously giving me the moral support, some I just do not know them. Also thanks a couple of them who are critical about my investing strategies, but without the terms like "talk cock", "empty tong", "rubbish". "bull shit", "misleading' etc., at least in this thread.

I have to specifically mentioned about this one with a simple statement from him, as I have learned a great deal of things from the past:

[Posted by luzeeker > Oct 20, 2015 09:52 PM | Report Abuse
Keep writing KC, you wrote good articles.]

So looks like I am "obliged" to keep on writing. Haha.

I have used VS as examples a lot for sharing because there are many "interesting" things about the past and present performance of this company. One just can't write much about a company if it is not "interesting". Mind you, I have never encouraged nor discouraged anyone from investing in this share, nor have I talked about what its share price will be in the future.

But sharing of the "interesting" things seems to antagonize some people. I seriously did not have that intention. For me, I am always happy to people who tell me the opposite view of a stock I own. It curbs my over-confidence which is to me, is detrimental to my investing outcome.

I guess maybe I should refrain from talking about this company any more. So too bad for those who owns VS shares now, because every time I talked about it, its share price goes up.

Thanks you again.

Posted by slater > Oct 20, 2015 02:26 PM | Report Abuse
Dear KC,
Good Evening !
Would like to ask for your latest advice what is your latest review on latitude
Any possible positive catalyst once they release their annual report on next month ?
Their previous quarter results net profit 79 million plus already surpass last year profit 60 million plus
7006 LATITUDE TREE HOLDINGS BERHAD
Thank You

Slater,

I did write a number of articles about Latitude to share my view, that it is a good company, and was at good price to buy. However, I am no analyst, and I have no insider information of how much they are going to earn, what the share price will be, and yes no ability to forecast its future earnings and cash flows etc.

But I can give my opinion here. A good company may be good to still hold it but may not be a good buy if the price has risen too much. Trees don't go to sky.

Whether it is still a good price to buy you have to look at its price relative to its earnings, compare to its historical PE ratio, etc.

My latest article in i3investor can be found here.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/80034.jsp

Posted by Chin Pin Tan > Oct 20, 2015 02:27 PM | Report Abuse
"For individual cases, I will be happy to invest in a company with normal growth rate of say 8% with TEV/Ebit<7, following Warren Buffet’s metric. Flip it over, we get an earnings yield for the enterprise of 14%, or an after tax earnings yield of 11%, which I am satisfied of."

Hi KC, is the benchmark of TEV/EBIT<7 apply for all companies? Are there any industries benchmark?


It is a good benchmark as explained in the statement. But in investing, nothing is cast in stone.

Posted by angiegoh > Oct 19, 2015 03:32 PM | Report Abuse
Thanks for sharing KC.
We want to subtract excess cash from the Enterprise Value because the portion of total cash needed to cover current liabilities is an investment in the company.
Excess Cash = Total Cash – MAX(0,Current Liabilities - (Current Assets - Total Cash))
Excess Cash = Total Cash - MAX (0, Current Liabilities - Current Assets + Total Cash)
So, fundamentally, what is the difference between your EV and my proposed EV?
We want excess cash to be a positive number. Therefore, we guard against this by putting a maximum of 0 on the value to subtract from cash.
I am keen to learn and use the right one.

Angiegoh,
Noby has answered your question well. I just want to add here.

Forget about this formula of excess cash. It will confuse you. Use the intuitive EV formula as

TEV = Market Capitalization + Debt + Minority Interest - Cash – other non-operating assets

And the explanation in my article here.

The "excess cash" in your formula will give you a maximum of the cash or cash equivalent in the balance sheet, and no more.

Most if not all companies require a positive net working capital for its business, otherwise it will have liquidity risk. Net positive working capital is required in its operating assets. So you can't "extract" any more cash from there.

Mind you, we are talking about EV, not liquidation value.

Posted by Intelligent Investor > Oct 19, 2015 03:43 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Mr. Chong

I am getting the non cash CA with Current Assets-Cash.

And, what's non-cash current liabilities?


It is total current liabilities - short-term debt

Short-term debt is already in "Total debt" in the EV formula

II,

Yes, many companies have some non-operating profit such as dividend income, interest income etc in their "Operating income". It could be the accounting rule for companies with a lot of cash and share investments.

What we can do is look at what they are, maybe from the cash flow from operating activities, and exclude them from operating income to do our other analysis such as DCFA, or comparing with other companies.

You can use your formula,

Excess Cash = Total Cash – MAX(0,Current Liabilities-(Current Assets-Cash))

But replace then with non-cash current liabilities and non-cash current assets.

that will avoid double counting in your cash and debts.

Ultimately, you will arrive the same answer as mine.

Posted by Najib Zamry > Oct 17, 2015 11:15 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, As a businessman myself, positive cash flow is the most important factor that I will take into consideration when investing in, especially during current economic condition. Profit is just a figure and it is just a paper profit if one company cannot convert the profit into cash.


Ha, also first time got a real businessman talking about the importance of cash flows than accounting profit in i3investor.

Some time I am really naive. For example, why do some businessmen, say a businessman doing food business. He makes a lot of profit in his business, after taking into consideration of the revenue he collected, less of the expenses, and assuming he will collect all the money. But from his profits, almost all has to be reinvested into the business for replacing the old utensils, equipment, refurbishing his restaurants etc very frequently, just to maintain the business, and have to fork out more money from his pockets for these stuff. And he say he is very successful in this business.

Posted by Ben Gan > Oct 17, 2015 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

KC, Great article! You are the best among all the analysts I know of. Thanks for your unselfish sharing. I salute you!


Ben, thanks for the kind words. Glad you like my articles.

You know I have been reading wisdom wise, or blisswise long before I started writing in i3investor.

And tell you a secret; I am no analyst, but just another individual investor like you.

Posted by Najib Zamry > Oct 17, 2015 10:06 AM | Report Abuse

It is good to see more and more good article appears in KLSE I3 investor.
Trust that many investors here still looking for a under research and fundamental sound with huge cash reserve company.
Century Bond defintely a stock to watch as the company has a proven track record generating good positive cash inflow for the past few years. This company is still a potential M&A candidate after a Japanese Investor failed to take over the company due to pricing issues two years back. With current weak Ringgit, forsee another round of M&A coming soon.


Finally someone talks about cash flows which I have been harping on all this while, and being ridiculed as theoretical, history, non-businessman hype,unimportant, useless accounting stuff. Welcome back Najib Zamry and long time no see.

But let me tell you again. I am often wrong in stock price predictions (as if i do any prediction at all), but I am very rarely wrong when I look at the negative cash flow problems of a company, in the long-term, because in the short term anything can happen; insiders and syndicates can manipulate the share price included. Just read my articles in i3investors about this topic and you will understand why.

Ignore cash flow at your own peril.

Good summary of packaging companies.

What screen did you use. It doesn't seem right. For example Scientex D/E > 50%? So are many others which are excluded with D/E are much lower than 0.5.

Enterprise value computations are not right. Were those from the screen? You may refer to this link.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49016.jsp

Posted by globalvalueinvestor > Oct 17, 2015 12:07 AM | Report Abuse

kcchong, I email to this: ckc14training@gmail.com , do I email wrongly?


Sorry, I did not receive any mail under your name here. My email address is correct.

Posted by globalvalueinvestor > Oct 16, 2015 04:31 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, emailed you ledi


What email? Where?

coolio,
Thanks. You will be notified when it is ready.

Posted by paperplane2 > Oct 15, 2015 09:08 AM | Report Abuse
for comparison, I think it is more apple to apple if you compare Elsoft vs KESM, as they both have similar business right?


Your question is just like some people always asserting that V.S Industries, which has an operating margin never in history of more than 10%, must have the same market valuation as Globtronics which has an operating margin of 21%.

Elsoft's operating margin is 43% whereas KESM's operating margin is only 7%. Do you see the difference in their business model?

Just goggle and see what they are doing you will understand.