Frank, I like your long winded posting at 2.40am. Long winded, humorous, candid, informative, educational and whatnot. Hey you even advise on a couple of stocks to buy. They are good stocks as described by you. Who said you don't know about accounting, investing and finance?

Actually the best part is your promise of taking me for a couple of round of golf. At your expense? Hehe, just kidding. Today I played the Par game at my golf club, another +1. Last week was +3 you know. Sure win something one today.

Posted by JCool > Sep 14, 2013 11:56 AM | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz.. Ok simple First d serious flaw.... if MFCB independent power producer IPP concessions were to end, take an extreme scenario, by say 31-12-2013 would ur valuation of MFCB stil b d same??

SERIOUS FLAW? IPP CONCESSIONS END 31-12-2013? WHICH ONE? DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY ARE THEY? DO YOU KNOW WHEN THEY END? WHAT WOULD BE THE DISTANT CASH FLOWS DISCOUNTED BACK TO PRESENT WHICH YOU THINK WILL AFFECT ITS INTRINSIC VALUE? WOULD THE PPA BE RENEWED AND MAY BE AT HIGHER PRICE TAKING INFLATION INTO CONSIDERATIONS? WOULD THEY BE GETTING NEW POWER PLANT AND PPA?

SO WHAT ARE YOUR ASSUMPTIONS THEN? WHAT WOULD YOU VALUE THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF MFCB?

In tis scenario d cashflow would stop by 31-12-2013 so u can't stil discount d cashflow stil coming after 31-12-2013 cos there wouldn't b anymore cashflow... right? U cannot keep counting d eggs to d end of time n say u r rich when d hen lying d eggs is going to give u jz 3 more eggs n stop cos its time is up.... So ur valuation of MFCB assuming d IPP would last forever would b seriously over valued

THE ANSWER AND QUESTIONS ARE AS ABOVE. ANOTHER THING, DO YOU KNOW WHAT IS THE CASH FLOWS IN THE NEAR FUTURE SAY THE NEXT 5 YEARS IS WORTH MUCH THAN THE LATER. DO YOU KNOW THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY AND DISCOUNTING?

I don't know d specifics abt MFCB IPP concessions tat is why I m just shouting 36-25-35 n at d same time asking a professional bank analyst to do d valuation....
Cos I know doing a valuation without knowing all d facts and u have admitted tat u dont know too is very very dangerous.... so I refrained.... I now realised u hv so many loves here blind loves lots of them ...so u hv big responsibility u should b even more careful cos $$$ involved....

YOU REFRAIN FROM DOING VALUATION? OR IS IT YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO DO? MANY LOVES AND BLIND LOVES LOT OF THEM? TALKING ABOUT BEING VAIN.

BIG RESPONSIBILITY OF ME SHARING IN I3? HUH????

Know d big names is good.... coming up wit half baked valuation is not..... n it is even more foolhardy to publish it... If u r doing wat u do wit medicine.. choolooi could well b in d hospital now...

HALF BAKED VALUATION? I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOUR WAY. SHOW ME HOW GOOD YOU ARE. HEY YOU MUST BE DAMN GOOD TO CRITICIZE SO STRONGLY LIKE THAT. CANNOT SHARE IN I3INVESTOR? HUH????? CAN ONLY SHOUT SHOUT AND CHEER CHEER AH?

CHOOLOOI, YOU SCARED OF LOSING MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET JUST BY READING WHAT I SHARE HERE OR NOT AS ALLEGED BY THIS COOL GUY? YOU SCARED OF GOING TO HOSPITAL READING MY ANALYSIS OR NOT?

WAH FINANCE AND INVESTING IS LIKE A PROFESSION IN MEDICINE, EXACT SCIENCE AND IF NOT CAN KILL PEOPLE ONE! DASHATNYA.

Posted by JCool > Sep 13, 2013 10:41 PM | Report Abuse

To tell d truth... I bot MFCB solely bcos it got d land concession in Combodia for rubber plantstion n I was hoping its price will move up...

WOW, GREAT, BUT WHAT KIND OF INVESTING STRATEGY IS THAT? THIS STRATEGY MUST BE A STRATEGY OF THE NEW ERA, MUCH BETTER THAN I WAS TALKING ABOUT THE VALUE INVESTING FOR MFCB. WHEN A COMPANY BUY SOMETHING, THE PRICE WILL SURE GO UP?

LET ME ASK YOU. IS MFCB A RUBBER PLANTATION COMPANY? DO THEY HAVE BUSINESS IN CAMBODIA AND KNOW THE ENVIRONMENT THERE WELL? IF NOT HOW SURE ARE YOU THAT THEY WILL DO VERY WELL IN A COMPLETELY NEW VENTURE IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT? OR RATHER WILL THEY LIKE MANY COMPANIES DID FOR DESTROYING SHAREHOLDERS' VALUE BECAUSE OF WRONG CAPITAL ALLOCATION?

I dont care much for MFCB existing biz cos being IPP everybody knew it was a biz which is very very dull....

DO YOU KNOW PETER LYNCH? LET ME TELL YOU WHAT HE THINKS ABOUT WHAT A PERFECT STOCK IS:

1. It sounds dull, or even better, ridiculous
2. It does something dull
3. It does something disagreeable
4. It is an easy to understand business
5. It’s a spinoff
6. The institutions don’t own it, and the analysts don’t follow it.
7. The rumour abound: It’s involved with toxic waste and/or mafia
8. There is something depressing about it
9. It’s a no-growth industry
10. It’s got a niche
11. People have to keep buying it

DO YOU KNOW PAUL SAMUELSON? THIS IS WHAT HE SAID:
“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”


Since there is so much love manly love for u I have finally taken a look at ur write up...n I think there is a flaw in ur valuation HaHa. . dont b vain hear me out....

HEY I DON'T NEED YOUR LOVE MAN! YOU DON'T HAVE TO LOOK AT MY WRITEUP. A FLAW IN MY ANALYSIS? HEY I LOVE TO HEAR YOU OUT. BUT, BUT, BUT DO YOU REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT I WROTE AH? DON'T LAUGH SO SARCASTICALLY AND VAINLY FIRST.

ME VAIN AGAIN? WHO WROTE THE BELOW?
Posted by JCool > Sep 8, 2013 01:37 PM | Report Abuse
Who wrote this? Long analysis..... must have spent days weeks or months on it but jz siok sendiri n waste of time Totally useless n no influence on d share price at all

Posted by JCool > Sep 11, 2013 04:25 PM | Report Abuse
HaHa I m here for d $$$$$ u r going for d i love u bro.. really trully love u.. muack muack.... let's go for laksa.... Luv Luv.. : )
That is precisely d problem... That is why MFCB never moved.

HEY THE COOL GUY, IT IS NOT MY RESPONSIBILITY TO MOVE THE STOCK PRICE OF MFCB, YOU KNOW?

Normally IPP concessions r for a fixed period of time.. I don't know may b u can tell if ur valuation has made assumption tat d cashfow wld b forever... if it is in fact forever but then in reality MFCB IPP concessions only hv like 5 more years to go n thereafter hv to hand over d plant to d government (BOT) then u wld hv seriously OVER valued MFCB... dont b vain $$$ involved...take a look again ..

NORMALLY? BUT WHAT ABOUT MFCB SPECIFICALLY? HOW MANY POWER PLANTS DO THEY HAVE? WHERE ARE THEY LOCATED? WHAT ARE THE POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS? BUT SERIOUSLY I DON'T KNOW THE DETAILS OF THE AGREEMENTS BUT DO YOU? HEY I AIN'T A PROFESSIONAL ANALYST. BUT WON'T THEY BE RENEWED? WON'T THEY GET SOME OTHER POWER PLANT OPERATION IN THE FUTURE? i DON'T KNOW ALSO, DO YOU?

HEY YOU SAID YOU HAVE LOOKED AT MY ANALYSIS. BUT YOU DON'T SEEM TO KNOW WHAT ASSUMPTION I HAVE USED, WHAT METHODS I USED? SERIOUSLY OVERVALUED MFCB? BUT YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW NOR UNDERSTAND HOW I VALUED. SHOULDN'T YOU TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND GIVE SOME SPECIFIC COMMENTS, RATHER THAN ME TAKE ANOTHER LOOK?

BUT SERIOUSLY, I HAVE SAID SO MANY TIMES I AM JUST A SMALL RETAIL INVESTOR. I AM NOT AN ACCOUNTANT BY PROFESSION. I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL ANALYST NOR WORK FOR AN INVESTMENT BANK. I HAVE NEVER INVOLVED IN THE FINANCE AND INVESTMENT INDUSTRY. SO I DO ALL THIS TO SHARE AND AT THE SAME TIME HOPING TO LEARN FROM OTHERS. SURELY THERE ARE MANY FLAWS AND MISTAKES. BUT YOU MUST TELL ME SPECIFICALLY THE FLAWS AND MISTAKES ARE SO THAT I CAN IMPROVE MYSELF, OR RATHER YOU CAN LEARN SOMETHING FROM ME.

Inwess88' I already have my data and analysis in Excel as I have done all the analysis before I bought the share, then only I write. I must walk the talk mah. But it did take some time to write the report, may be an hour or two.

But seriously, MFCB is he'll of undervalued if you read my valuations about it, no matter what method of valuation I use, the margin of safety investing at the preset price of 1.82 is huge. You do know that the stock I pick is for investment, not trading. Hence time is required for others to find out about its value.

Moreover the risk investing in this stock is low.

I prefer a dinner in Euro at the Princess Wharf in Auckland. 30 lots of Dsonic already paper gain of 50000 bucks

Talking about vain. Read this

Posted by JCool > Sep 8, 2013 01:37 PM | Report Abuse

Who wrote this? Long analysis..... must have spent days weeks or months on it but jz siok sendiri n waste of time Totally useless n no influence on d share price at all

Oooop mistake again. The absolute PE ratio should be 18 and the price should be RM4.29. I Must be crazy, 135% above its present price of RM1.83!

Yeah lah, this tony fellow asked me so many things and make so much money, but never even offer to buy me a drink. Still inwest88 is more gentleman.

Katsenelson’s absolute PE for MFCB

Basic PE for MFCB with a growth of 4.8% and a dividend yield for last year of 4.4%,

Basic PE = 8 + 0.65*4.8 + 4.4 = 15.5

Business risk: MFCB’s business has high efficiencies with average return of assets of 6.5% and high return of capital of 18.5%. Cash return (FCF/IC) is great at 20%. Hence there may a good moat in its business. An arbitrary 5% premium is applied to its business risk.

Financial risk: MFCB has a very healthy balance sheet with net cash of 130m. Hence a premium of 5% is applied.

Earnings visibility: MFCB has quite stable and reasonable operating profit margins of 20%. Its cash flow from operations is also stable, about the same as its net income. It has stable and high free cash flow every year, averaging more than 10% of revenue. A premium of 5% is applied.

Hence the absolute PE for MFCB is:

Abs PE = 15.5* [1+(1-95%)] *[1+(1-95%)] * [1+(1-95%)] = 17.1

Fair value of MFCB= 17.1*0.239 = RM4.09

Ooop, it is way above its present share price of RM1.82.

inwest, I was just kidding. Just to give some cheering to the contestants. No worry.

When I posted the stock Datasonic on 2nd September, I actually had the intention of joining in the fun. But later when you guys summarize the contestants, my name was not included and I did not pursue it. But more important is I actually bought it, not with RM100,000, but just 10,000 shares. That is more important, isn't it?

Thanks anyway, inwest88.

inwest88, what about me me me? I bought RM100,000 worth of Datasonic on 2nd September and made RM15774.

"I would take this as my only stock for the challenge going on now. "


Datasonic thread
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 2, 2013 12:28 PM | Report Abuse X

Datasonic, A Rule breaker for risk takers.

Below is the financials for Datasonic for the last few years.

Year 2010 2011 2012 1st half 2013
Revenue, m 39.6 78.4 178.7 118.3
Net profit, m 7.6 15.9 28.1 35.6
EPS 8.4 17.6 36.85 39.6

What do you see?

Assuming an annualized EPS of 80 sen,at 3.36 now, isn't it cheap? Yeah I know. Its price has shot up by 65% from RM2.00 since 4 months ago.

Datasonic has 10m copies Mycard to issue for 2013. It is also awarded 5 year contract to supply 10m polycarbonate passport. Think about that. there is very strong earnings visibility. Most of all, it is not expensive.

I would take this as my only stock for the challenge going on now.

Koay, wah you are increasingly bullish about Scientex ah? Based on TA's report?

But seriously I trust your report more. Good on you.

blackswan, none of the above. I am a follower of Warren buffet and Cold Eye as a value investor. See the thread appended below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp

But actually i am more towards Joel Greenblatt's magic formula. See appended link below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900255072.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900285510.jsp

If I remember, the strategy was successful initially in US. But later the strategy under-performed the market. Go Google and check.

the strategy basically buy the highest dividend stocks each year and reshuffle every year. There are also many academic research which showed that there is no statistical significance of extra-ordinary return with the strategy.

Intuitively I would say it is not a winning strategy because a company pay high dividend because it has no better use of its free cash flow. Without adequate capital expenses, a company won't grow.

Why do you want to use a losing strategy?

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 7, 2013 06:21 PM | Report Abuse X
Well if Plaza Rakyat is taken over by a reputable developer such as the old SP Setia, there may be some hope for the development. SP Setia used to be:
1) The top developer
2) Established good track record
3) Financial strength
4) Great management
5) Good sale force
(6) etc
Ivory? None of the above. How?

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 8, 2013 09:51 AM | Report Abuse X
It definitely has to have right issues, absolutely no doubt about it.

1) Which bank would want to continue lending to an outfit already has so much debt but not much cash flow from its operations?

2) Is any bank confident that its loan will be repaid looking at Ivory's management and operating history?

3) Is there anybody comfortable to subscribe to Ivory's debt instrument?

4) Is there any investment bank willing to underwrite any debt issue by Ivory?

5) What would be the required return of the debt instrument if so?

As a matter of fact, I wonder how many shareholders of Ivory willing to pour in money again in view of its poor performance since listing?

When I wrote the post on 1813, MFCB was at RM1.70 (Go check the details) and KLSE was at 1773. Now MFCB is at RM1.82 for a gain of 12 sen or 7% whereas KLSE dropped by 0.3% to 1768. This means the excess return is 7.3%. So what is the problem?

By the way, I wrote the report and I never recommend anyone to buy, did I? As a matter of fact, I have written many posts in i3, try find one I recommend anybody to buy.

The good gentleman here Tan Kian Wei put the article up for the purpose as described by another good man below: Please read!


Posted by bsngpg > Sep 11, 2013 04:22 PM | Report Abuse

Movement of a stock price is not depending on how many people knowing, shouting but buying it. Even all readers in i3 know and buy the same stock (which is impossible), it cannot up the price too. As compare to the free-floated shares, how much can i3 readers buy? Movement of a stock has multiple and complex factors behind. For a long term and healthy movement, it is correlated to the valuation/fundamentals/biz performance of the company. Sentiment of the market and luck plays some role too.

I appreciate and like very much what KC Chong posted, but that does not mean I need to agree with or buy the stock. His intention is not asking me to buy. The analysis is something for sharing, promoting formal valuation method and educational purpose (at least I am learning a bit by a bit). He welcomes feedbacks too which he may miss out. I appreciate and support this kind of good deed. If anybody dislikes it, pls just leave it, it does not hurt but please do not pour cool water. There are lots of new players need this kind of sharing. Thank you for your understanding.

Melvin, holding KHSB when you can sell at the price they going to settle with you in a few months time is not a wise move.

Why you so steupid buying a "totally useless" stock? Are you out of your mind?

Told you you have bought the wrong stock. Sell off your MFCB now, right now.

Go buy Salcon and its warrants, Greenpacket and its warrants, Sona and its warrants, MAS and its warrants, Ivory, KNM, Amedia, etc. You will have more kakis there to shout and cheer. Those are the places where a hero like you has a place to show off.

Go go go!

Hey the cool guy, what have you been doing man? Why MFCB never move? Volume only 5000 shares traded today. Where are your lala troupe? Your analysts, advertising and investment banks friends? How come there isn't even one shout and cheer with you? Hey, I depend on your shouting and cheering to jack up MFCB's share price man.

Told you you have bought the wrong stocks. Told you you have come to the wrong thread to waste your breadth. Go buy Salcon and its warrants, Greenpacket and its warrants, Sona and its warrants, MAS and its warrants, Ivory, KNM, Amedia, etc. You will have more kakis there to shout and cheer. Those are the places where a hero like you has a place to show off.

Go go go!

Posted by Sapphire > Sep 12, 2013 06:22 PM | Report Abuse

true price 1.75


How do you work out your "true" price?

Quantitative analysis of Pintaras Jaya Berhad (12/9/13)

The business
Pintaras is a smallish construction company with its principal activities in investment holding and undertaking of piling contracts, retaining structures, slope stabilization, civil engineering and building construction works. The company was formed by its present Chairman cum Managing director, Dr Chiu Hong Keong, a civil and geotechnical engineer who started his career in 1982 with Pilecon Engineering and later worked for Ho Hop Construction for a few years. Pintaras went public in 1994.

The Industry
Construction is a dog eat dog industry with intense competitions. Foundation engineering and construction is a field which is littered with loads of engineering design and construction implementation, contractual and bad debts problems. In order to strive, besides strong financial backing and the capability to carry out works, one must also has the strong political connections, particularly with the government as it is the biggest supplier of construction contracts. Construction players must also have good and strong relationship with the developers. One would notice few construction companies who do not possess the above have survived.

What makes Pintaras different? In other words, what moat does Pintaras possess to survive and prosper in this tough industry?

Business model and competitive advantage
One thing good about Pintaras is that it doesn’t have to rely on the political connections and government jobs to strive and survive in the market place. The strength of Pintaras lies its niche market in the complex foundation engineering works and hence the high margin it commands. It is able to provide economic design and construct heavy foundation and retaining structure works within the short time frame required for the major players in the property sector in Malaysia. Pintaras has extensive specialized plant and equipment to carry out the project in house with concerted personal involvement of the skilful management team. As far as I know, there is no other public listed company having the same technical and financial clout as Pintaras in this niche market. With its good connection with the developers and the Engineering professional bodies, the management is able to cherry pick good and profitable projects with high margins coupled with less risks. All these not only enable Pintaras to survive but strive in this industry.

Business outlook
With the continuation of the LRT extension projects and the commencement of more MRT projects, the construction industry remains robust with abundance of construction works. These projects also provide catalyst for many more property developments centered around these areas with many new property development launches. Furthermore, many mega construction and infrastructure projects, all part of the Government Economic Transformation Programme have been proposed and are likely to proceed soon. Hence Pintaras as a leading foundation player in Malaysia will be busy for at least a number of years to come.

Management
Dr Chiu Hong Keong, the chairman cum managing director provides the active leadership for the company. The board of directors is made up of another executive director, Mr Khoo Keow Pin, who is the founding member of Pintaras and is also highly qualified civil engineer specialized in geotechnical engineering and has extensive working experience in the consulting and construction environments. The other two executive directors are Dr Chiu’s wife and his son. The four executive directors are related to each other and hence Pintaras can be construed as a tightly controlled family business. There are three independent directors who are not related to the executive directors.

The major shareholders own more than 70% of the total shares of 80m of the company. The strong insider ownership ensures the proper alignment of the interest of the outside shareholders and the management and hence minimizes the agency problem. Total executive compensation in 2012 made up of only RM2.1 m, or just 1.2% (<<3%) of revenue in 2012. The directors did not overpay themselves as they are already owning a major stake in the company and there is enough incentive for them to operate the business to maximize shareholder value.

The management is also appears to be willing to share the fruits of the success with the outside shareholders. This is evidenced from the dividend payment which increases from 12 sen 5 years ago to more than double to 25 sen per share proposed for the last financial year.

Posted by Frank Soweto > Sep 11, 2013 07:47 AM | Report Abuse
haha KC might as well forget about it (pretty sure u heard of the there's a S&^cker born every minute:) ) - like my good fren always reminds me - we learn best what we learn hard :)

Frank, I actually agree with you what you have said above. However, I just ke poh a bit and want to hoha hoha only. But in this process, I was wrong in a few occasions and I must say I have learned from some of them also.

Hey I have been playing quite a bit of golf recently as Spring is here now. My golf has also improved. Handicap dropped by 2-3 strokes already. Looking forward to have some freebie games in US with you, hehe.

aiyah, both of you calculated the premium correctly lah. Why quarrel?

fat cat, watch out for your order of math operation; ie bracket, multiplication/division, then add/subtract.

LC, great work.

Posted by bsngpg > Sep 11, 2013 10:43 PM | Report Abuse

My humble opinion on KC Chong's portfolio - Time Horizon:

I think that time horizon on Fibon for KC Chong is years. But many of you were talking about half session, day or week. That deviates from the message behind KC Chong’s analysis. KC Chong is waiting for the duckling to grow to a beautiful White Swan, while you are talking about if the duckling gets fat tomorrow so that you can slaughter and eat it as Peking Duck. For those who do not have patient, I think KC Chong’s portfolio will likely disappoint you.
What do you think ?

Wise men think alike. Of course fools seldom differ. bsngpg, are you and me wise men or fools? Anyway, if we are fools, good to have a great cyber fool friend like you.

One of the main things to look for buying warrant is, yes, the premium measured by
Pre=(exercise price+Warrant price)/underlying share price-1

Of course the lower the premium the better as if you can buy warrant at lower price, surely you have better chance to make money. How much the premium is considered cheap or expensive? Hard to say because the other important thing is time, how long before the warrant expires. Of course if the time is long, there is higher probability that the underlying share can go higher and out-of-the-money warrant becomes deep in-the-money and hence the better chance in making money.

Few punters realize that there is another very important determinant of the price of warrant, the volatility of the underlying share. Figure this. If the volatility if high, meaning move up (and down) by big gap of the underlying share will provide better chance for the warrant to realize its value (and hence price) and investors (or punters)have better chance to make money. A 40% volatility is worth a lot more than one with 15%.

Not to forget that dividend yield also affect (adversely) the price of warrant as warrant holders are not entitled for the dividend. for a company which is used to pay high dividend, be sure that is taken into consideration.

How to price a warrant. if you are interested, go learn some stochastic calculus and see how the Nobel prize Black-Scholes Option Pricing formula is derived. Try understand what is Brownian motion and log-normal distribution, volatility smile and volatility surface.

Oh yeah, the other thing is you may not need to know all these boring stuff. Just look at the chart or based on demand and supply to determine the pricing and make a punt. Many people make money that way too.

Hey the cool guy, I love $$$$$ too. I have some MFCB shares too. Why never continue shout, cheer and promote ah? the share still doesn't move woh? Please shout, and cheer. Get all your gangs to do also. Quick quick so that it can go up to RM3.00 next week!

"That is precisely d problem", you never do your job. Just talk only.

Risk arbitrage, a lesson learnt from KHSB.

Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 30, 2013 09:48 AM | Report Abuse X
Market inefficiency?
News broke out about the signing of the S&P for the takeover offer last night. Maximum takeover price 83.6 sen and minimum 76 sen. Completion of S&P by end of May. GO say take another 3 months to complete.
If everything concluded in the one plus three months and all investors get their money in four months, the profit of buying KHSB now at 67 sen would be between 13.4% and 24.8%, or an annualized return between 40% to 75%.
Why is there such a high risk premium for this risky arbitrage play?

The arbitrage opportunity for KHSB worked out exactly like what was written above 4 months ago. The Selangor Government is actively purchasing KHSB's shares directly from the market now at 83.5 sen. So the time frame of 4 months from the signing of S&P is also exact.

So the return for those who took the risk arbitrage made about 25%, or an annualized return of 75% as anticipated.

When is the next fat frog jumping around again?

Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 11, 2013 02:51 PM | Report Abuse X

aiseh, told you you and your friends no point cheer, promote, shout or whatever for a counter like MFCB. You really siok sendiri only. See anybody follows you or not so far? There are not many people interested in this stock. Told you already. And how much money you have to push this counter?

Go go to the following stocks to do your shouting and cheering. It will be more fruitful for you.

Sana and its warrant
DVM and its warrant
Tgoff and its warrant
IRCB and its warrant
Sumatec and its warrant
TMS
Amedia
Patimas
KNM

So how many people follow your cheering and shouting now? Aren't you just siok sendiri shouting yourself? At least there are a few seemed interested and grateful reading my report.

Posted by johnny cash > Sep 11, 2013 02:09 PM | Report Abuse
THIS COMPANY SHOULD SELL PART OF THEIR BUSINESS, OR SELL THE COMPLETE BUSINESS OR ETC AND RETURN BACK THE MONEY TO INVESTORS

I think I have read this statement many times. Let me ask you. Go and have a detail study of their balance sheet. Then decide if KNM were to liquidate today, is there anything left for the common shareholders? Please note that the common shareholders have the last claim of what is left. Please go and study. If you don't know how to read the balance sheet, get somebody you know who knows and tell you the answer.

Frank, on a serious note here. How I wish those supporters/cheerleaders have read what you wrote about your personal experience on KNM since a few years ago. Those things are invaluable lessons and can't get from books or from study in university.

Hi Frank, actually after hitting "save comment" in my last posting, then only I thought of that General Lee.

Yeah, how could I miss that one.

Posted by JCool > Sep 10, 2013 08:06 PM | Report Abuse
MFCB needs promotion publicity a PR team a cheerleader! Haikeyila i hv set my eyes on tis counter for some time now too, great minds think alike U got a nice profile pic y dont u do us a favour.. do a bit of cheering n shouting for MFCB here in i3 n everywhere... ; )

I don't think it is cool for you to invest in this share. This stock is a small capitalized stock with less than 500m market cap. No analysts covering this stock. There is hardly any trading of this stock each day. Why do you want to waste your time in this stock?

Want to promote, cheering and shouting for this share here? I think you should save your breadth. I don't think this i3 website has the clout to do it, seriously. First of all there isn't many people in i3 interested in this no-action stock. Secondly for those few who are interested, how much money they have combined to have an effect on the share price?

MFCB needs a promotion and publicity team to jack up its share price? Oh please, as a shareholder of MFCB, I hope the management can concentrate on their business rather than whole day doing useless thing like thinking of how to jack up the share price.

Let me recommend you the stocks you should buy, promote and cheers:

Sana and its warrant
DVM and its warrant
Tgoff and its warrant
IRCB and its warrant
Sumatec and its warrant
TMS
Amedia
Patimas
etc

Posted by bsngpg > Sep 10, 2013 03:14 PM | Report Abuse

To KC Chong, KW Tan, inwest88 :
I do not think Mr Koon expected JTiasa to grow to 3.2, ~54% from today. Even yes, I do not think I have patient to wait for 3.2. I hate it as it pulls down my grand dividend yield which is income for my retirement in future.

My dream is to receive a significant dividend each year for retirement. It is something achievable if I did not make mistaken in the past years. Now I am recouping my previous mistakes, albeit it is as slow as snail but I have faith on it. As I always said, this is my dream in Bursa. I hope KC Chong and KW Tan see this message which is the center value of my investment in Bursa, just want to share with them who I regard as a very good people.


bsngpg, I have said a few times already that your investment strategy is the right one because you will earn decent return from your investment, while keeping the risk low. Your strategy will beat 90% of the retail investors and 80% of the fund managers. If everybody follows your strategy, investment in the equity market will be a happy and rewarding thing to do.

Yes, investors who need income may be wise to follow the high dividend yield strategy. But with due respect to Mr Koon (more for his philanthropy and social responsibility works), I don't think a stock like Jaya Tiasa fits in that category. There are many plantation companies are better in my opinion. I would invite you to read what my opinion about the high dividend yield strategy in the thread I have created as appended below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900271553.jsp

Just to show some of the pitfalls in this strategy. In fact every strategy, without exception, would have its own pitfalls. Just to emphasize some of things you may need to watch out here.

[High dividend payment may not be good for the company if there is inadequate normalized earnings and free cash flows. It is especially so if there is none excess cash in its balance sheet. This dividend payment is hence unsustainable as the company has to borrow or issues new shares in order to pay dividend. Paying too much dividend also negatively affect growth as less money is spent on capital expenses for the growth of the business in the future.

However investing in high dividend stocks is still a viable strategy with the following checks:
1. Dividend yields exceed the bank fixed interest rate, currently about 3.5%.
2. Dividend payout ratio should be less than a cut-off, say 65-80% to have growth
3. Reasonable growth rate in earnings at least matches the overall economy, say >4%. ]

Of course this is just my personal opinion. You don't have to be the same as me.

Nokenzo, how can I be discouraged with reader like you? Oh I remember you mentioned about want to learn valuation some time ago. Just a few days ago tan kian Wei posted a few articles from Jae jun on valuations. There are excellent articles where you can start with. Read and start practising right away. Practising is the way to learn. If you find any problem, just let me know, I will try to see if I can be of any help.

Katsenelson’s absolute PE for Fibon

For those who are interested in this method, please refer to the appended link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/36512.jsp


Basic PE for Fibon with a growth of 3% and a dividend yield for last year of 3.9%,

Basic PE = 8 + 0.65*3 + 3.9 = 13.9

Business risk: Fibon’s business has high efficiencies with high return of assets of 16.4% and high return of capital of 46%. Cash return (FCF/IC) is also great at 26%. Hence there may a good moat in its business. An arbitrary 5% premium is applied to its business risk.

Financial risk: Fibon has a very healthy balance sheet with no debt. Hence a premium of 5% is applied.

Earnings visibility: Fibon has quite stable and high operating profit margins of 39%. Its cash flow from operations is also stable though they are slightly below the net income. As it is a small company, no premium nor discount is applied.

Hence the absolute PE for Fibon is:

Abs PE = 13.9* [1+(1-95%)] *[1+(1-95%)] * [1+(1-100%)] = 15.3

Fair value of Fibon = 15.3*0.05 = RM0.76

Posted by Tan KW > Sep 10, 2013 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz, for your reading http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/36627.jsp

TANKW, THANKS FOR THE ARTICLE. A SECOND INVESTMENT BANK (AFTER TA) GIVES A REPORT OF THIS SMALLISH COMPANY. AS USUAL, KENANGA ALSO USES A RELATIVE PE RATIO. THIS TIME EVEN "BETTER", WITH A DECIMAL POINT AT 7.6. BUT FRANKLY, YOU HAVE POSTED SO MANY VALUATION METHODS FROM ESTABLISHED ANALYSTS IN A DEVELOPED MARKET IN US, HAVE YOU POSTED ONE WITH A RELATIVE PE RATIO VALUATION?

Again, my usual questions are:

1) why based on valuation of Fibon at 7.6 times Earnings? Why not 3.6, 4.6 ,5.6, 7.5, 7.8 times, 10 times, 15 times?
2) Fibon has an excess cash of 20 sen per share. Has Kenanga taken this into account in its valuation?
3) What if Fibon has a net debt of 20 sen per share but still earns the same EPS, will the valuation still the same? If yea or no, why?
4) What if Fibon distribute all this excess cash as special dividend. And it is still debt free. Will the valuation still the same?

If the answer is affirmative to questions 2,3 and 4, then would Fibon worth 60 sen (40+20)?

What about in view of the steady earnings and cash flow and healthy balance sheet Fibon has? Shouldn't it be accorded a higher PE ratio?

sephiroth, you damn smart in making money from value small cap stock of good company.

This article really explains why there are >90% speculators in the market whereas there is less than 10% true investors.

A good article to explain why the return of invested capital (ROIC) is important to gauge the economic moat of a company. Anybody interested in FA should read this.

Interesting interview with a highly qualified and experienced fund manager. But how many people (check in i3 here) make consideration as below when investing in the stock market?

Professor Philip Cheng – Most people always asks question – “Does the company makes money?” Then I say it’s the wrong question. They said, “Philip, You are a crazy man. I want to find out if the company makes money.” I said “NO, it’s the wrong question!”

Professor Philip Cheng – The RIGHT question to ask is – “Does the company produce cash flow from the operations?”

Professor Cheng – It is different saying “Oh no, they do” . When a company makes money does not mean they generate cash flow from their operations. So it’s a simple thing like this that I tell you all these years I have tried to manage to make money by looking at the cash flow in a company and not earnings.

Posted by JCool > Sep 8, 2013 01:37 PM | Report Abuse

Who wrote this? Long analysis..... must have spent days weeks or months on it but jz siok sendiri n waste of time Totally useless n no influence on d share price at all

Aiyah somebody asked for analysis of MFCB and I thought I would help him to refer him to an analysis. But why ah such a harsh and sarcastic criticism from this "cool" guy? Made me feel so bad. Yeah i know it is useless but as you said that guy spend days, weeks or months to do it, so no need to be so harsh mah. Pity him a bit lah.

Must visit this good guy nokenzo for cheering me up in Penang (?) and belanja him Penang laksa.

Wow this apa ini CFDs and options thingy is better than Genneva Gold investment. In fact the return is 3-5 times more! Thanks Kathlyn Toh for so kind to share this excellent investment with us, instead of benefiting herself only.

Best opportunity to recoup my losses from Genneva Gold and in fact make many times more money back from this CFDs and options.

Thanks a thousand times!

Luxchem Corporation Berhad acts as importers, exporters and distributors of petrochemical and other related products, and manufacturing and trading of unsaturated polyester resin and related products.

Good work TeckChuan. Wow you are good at valuing using enterprise value. Agree with your analysis. Just some points below:

Margins a bit low but I presume that is normal for distributor's business. Just a little concern about the quality of its earning; CFFO is low at average of about 60% of earnings for the last three years. But again it may not be a concern for Luxchem's business in particular.

eSdM, let us take this argument between you and me as nothing personal. You indeed know about accounting. Neither I know nothing about it although I am not an accountant. Since you want to leave it as it is, it is fine with me. But you just can't say I simply shoot, unless you justify what you say.

But I think it is good that those people here have some different views about KNM and judge by themselves if they want to invest in KNM or not. For those who have no knowledge about financial statements, if they wish, they may learn something about reading and interpreting financial statements here.

I would take this as a fruitful discussion.

Posted by eSdM > Sep 9, 2013 01:42 PM | Report Abuse

i hv jz covered two of ur bals.. n both also u hv errors... BIG errors

BIG ERRORS? ERRORS ARE SMALL THINGS. MISTAKES ARE BIG THINGS. AIYAH, YOU ARE JUST LIKE THE GENERAL (READ WHAT JONNY CASH WROTE ABOVE). TALK TALK TALK AND NEVER SHOW ANYTHING.

others also hv errors but i hv no time to go thru wit u la...

WAH YOU GOT NO TIME TO GO THROUGH ALREADY KNOW THERE ARE OTHER ERRORS.

suffice to say thr r auditors to check d accounts to make sure it is ok

WHAT IS THIS STATEMENT FOR?

On the other hand, I think you simply shoot woh. See your statement below. Where and what and why you said that ah?

"knm situation is improving by d minutes based on wat u say.... long even b4 d release of d qtr 3 result..."

I simply shoot? Where? Aren't the figures correct? You haven't disputed them woh besides the arguable receivables and work in progress.

No, I am not moving away from account. So where are "so many account errors on ur part leh.....".

Please elaborate