No read news meh
Iran plan to attack Saudi lah

Hy rally together with them in May loh
But now why lagging so much lei
Cowboys know what is unrealised hedging loss loh
Cowboys do not fear hedging loh
Cowboys always look the bright side
Investors here always look the dark side loh
If those refinery company can produce bumper profits
Why hy cannot lei
Some like pbf energy is almost same operating style like hy lei
Pbf also Buy crude oil and do hedging lah

YTD
Phillip 66 up 48%
Hf Sinclair up 89%
Pbf energy up 259%
They all produce diesel gasoline jet fuel and they all have hedging activity loh
Share price peak around May ,then
Bottom around Sep lei same like hy lei
And now they back to May price liao
Hy stills near the bottom lei must follow the trend lah

Year to date
MRO up 70%
Vlo up 59%
Hy up 9% only lei.
refinery company enjoy high diesel crack spread and hedging gain on gasoline
so far all reports bumper profit in Q3 loh
Hy learn the hedging strategy from Vlo
Vlo can generate huge profits from hedging lei
Hy sure follow the same results lah

MRO reach May height liao
VLO almost reach May peak price too lei
Hy can return to May price boh?
World Refinery stock all make huge profit
All uptrend lei

Opposition got so much power ah?
Government will listen to opposition keh?

D1N1 lagi? Msia car still use ron 92?
46%+ of refined product is diesel
8%+ jet fuel
26%+ is mogas 95/97
0% is 92

Wah diesel got so many reason to stay expensive lei
But market overlook that
Market follow mogas 92 only lah
Have to wait the results lah
Kesian hy
Share price should not below 6
But due to misconceptions
Sideway until when ?
Kesian hy
Boring hy

Berkshire got tonnes of byd to sellloh.
Apa tu gasoil pun tak faham pun boleh talk like pro

46% of hy product is diesel lei
Shell produce much less than this level lei
Shell also import russia oil lei but only 7.5%
Hy at least 16%lah
Hy should have higher margin lah

Millionaire go buy gloves loh
Only poor man buy hy lah

Yahloh , we have hedging gains lagi lei

Gross refining unit margin is defined as the hydrocarbon margin net of purchased/sold utilities, additives and relevant freight costs, divided by crude and feedstock intake in barrels. It is only applicable to the impact of market pricing on refining business performance, excluding trading margin.

Actual historical indicative margins based on the 2021 indicative margin formula are available on the Refining & Trading page in the Quarterly Data Book.

Q3 2022: $15.03/bbl

Q2 2022: $28.04/bbl

Q1 2022: $10.23/bbl

Q4 2021: $6.55/bbl

Q3 2021: $5.70/bbl

Shell formula yah
The formula provided will be reviewed quarterly and typically updated annually, reflecting any changes in our refining portfolio.

Calculation formula ($/bbl) - note that brackets indicate a negative sign

Brent*(29.0%) + MSW*(11.5%) + LLS*(16.0%) + Dubai*(33.5%) + Urals CIF EU*(7.5%) + NWE Naphtha (RDAM FOB Barge)*9.5% + NWE Mogas premium unleaded*13.0% + NWE Kero*12.0% + NWE AGO*27% + NWE Benzene*1% + Sing Fueloil 380 cst*7.5% + USGC Normal Butane*3.5% + USGC LS No 2 Gasoil*8.0% + USGC Natural Gas*(2.0%) +TTF Natural Gas*(1%)+ USGC CBOB*14.5% + RINS*(22.0%) + NWE Propylene Platts*1% – $0.92/bbl

I m hy supporter but I don’t believe probability statements loh
He magnifying the positive part, minimise the bad factor.
Q3 is good but not as good as he claimed loh

Ular please don’t mention that name….. later no peace at here

Hahaha
Crack spread high time they say hedging loss
Negative crack they don’t say hedging gains
Oklah hy is poor man stock
So we need JJPTR to save us

SIfu sslee share the right thing liao.

Most of Hy cost is brent
Most hy revenue is refined product selling price

Hy produce diesel, gasoline 95/97/98/100, jet fuel, propylene lah
92 got meh?

Hedging loss will turn gains and vice versa
Means, coming years, hy will enjoying hedging gains.
Hedging is not the part to worry lah

Oct, we have brent floating below 97
But what is diesel otc market price lei?
Above 130 lei. Hy printing money in the physical market loh

Mogas 92 is for hedging only lah. Haiyoh . Which company use mogas 92 to trade refined products o? Market use Singapore jet fuel as reference to trade jet fuel lah… diesel, gasoline all got a index to follow lah.

Aiyoh 700 will break 200 or not? Itchy hand liao

Correct, correct . Okloh day buy byd night buy tesla loh
Poor man must hardworking lah
so that next year ada duit buy gloves mah I want be rich man lah

Tesla good meh? My poor sifu suggested byd lei. No money buy gloves lah, poor man buy car , rich man buy gloves

Agree, poor man buy Google Vlo 700 Hy , no money buy gloves loh

Thought can reenter VLO again below 110 but now already 130. Haiz
Whole world refinery stock up, hy will follow them soon

Haiyoh what is the wages for an analyst? Her salary can buy 1000 hy boh? Media reports can trust, all huat by follow their report only loh. Hy eps hard to reach 2 but 0.90 surety boleh dapat one. Rolling 4Q eps 2.8 + 0.18 + 0.9 = 3.88 .
Fa is good but money want flow into hy or not is another story loh

Kenanga use mogas 92 to analyse Petron lei
Not relevant lah
Which refinery produces mogas 92lei?
They produce diesel l, jet fuel, 97 95 ,LPG , propylene lah

Hy used to import russia oil mah
If Singapore can import russia oil
Why msia can’t lei?

Remember Q1 got written down some inventory boh?
Later inQ2 written back leh. Russia oil lah ,guessing only lah haha

Asia, however, sees rising imports of Russian fuel oil as the region is now a major alternative outlet for Russia’s fuel oil exports, Vortexa’s Khasawneh noted. Imports from Russia into the region continue to set records. Preliminary figures for October show a fresh high of 560,000 bpd, which is up almost 50% compared to September, according to Vortexa.

Haiyoh read newslah dont lazy lah

Hy buying russia cheap oil
Q4 untung besar loh

So sadlah VLO up again lah
Sudah take profit lah

Falling crack spread means hedging gains loh
Unrealised loss can press hy from 6 to 4
When this unrealised loss become unrealised gains , what will happen to share price lei?

May / June 2022
Valero 145 mro 31.6 hy 7

Oct/ Nov
valero 128。MRO30 Hy 4

Hope at least
Petron eps 30
Hy eps 60

Winter is comings lah
Hy always fly in winter one lah
No much Floating shares left

Haiyoh those hold hy sure will not sell before the results lah
If the results is explosive
No body going to sell lah
So limit up loh
If the results is not good
Dip below 4loh

Check what lah. I also take profit loh. Valero almost history high already mah.
hengyuan, geely 700 388 good time to accumulate

Q3 eps 1 enough loh. Rolling eps become 4 loh
PE 1.5 pun fly to 6 loh
Valero earn so much , hengyuan same same lah
Q3&Q4 Hedging part sure turn positive
Wait retailer realised Hengyuan bumped profit continues for years
below 6 no more loh

Mogan standly WSJ semua top financial services confidence in refinery stockslah. Very confident high diesels price sustain for few years lah. Valero up 5% last night lah. Sini mia orang follow uncle kyy concern 92 , so funny’s lei. Q3 forward Jet fuel and diesels build up 60% of Henyuan business lah. No one use 92 lah .ccg bukan 92lah. Almost 80% of product is Ccg ,jet ,diesels . All untung besar lah .

My valero up again. Huat lah.

compare Valero chart with hengyuanlah，always same pattern one, at most lagging 2 weeks, Valero not far from historical high, results will release soon. Go see yourself lah, Hengyuan will catch up soon

shell up 3%
VLO up 4%
Marathon up 2.9%
Despite CPI 8.2 lei crazy liao

Marathon Exxonmobile VLO all fly lei
Refinery stock huat liao lah
Almost back to one month highliao

Uncle pun know crack spread mogas 92 is for hedging purpose only mah. Q3 average selling price is 130. Brent average is 100. Do your maths lah uncle. Low mogas 92 crack and high selling price is double engine mah. One month later uncle please look into the quarter report. Diesel , jet fuel banyak untung. Mogas 97&95 untung sikit. Only weak currency not favour hengheng. Tapi Hedge untung very very fat. All pending hedge loss will become untung. q3 result will shock many people.

Low crude oil means low insurances premium,low interest charged, sure good to Hengyuanlah.
But Hengyuan share price always follow oil price mah. Accept it loh. Investors care only share price up or down, who care what the truth is ? Q3 profit must be very sui one. Hedging gain, high crack spread, EPS 2++ again pun no problem one. But the ship is now in downtrend, wait another month loh, relax

If you read annual report, they mentioned strong USD is not good to profit. Don't simply talk to favour your interestlah

Haiyoh market sentiment so bad mah. Share price sure down lah. Q3 profit maybe so good also useless lah. No need promote everyday lah. What data also useless lah. Is downtrend! Downtrend!

MRO 26.60
VLO tade at 114 both close to 5 years high
Hengheng share price following us oil stocks one , just a bit lagged
VLO business model is similar to Hengheng
They do hedging as well lah

Haiyoh why so complicated
Q2
Your friend Heng Heng have 3 stocks
Stock A , buy sell buy sell making profit 1000
Stock B sells, lose. 400
Stock C ,accumulated, buy more , no sell, paper loss 1000

Q3 part of stock C upgrade to B
Stock A buy sell buy sell, make 100 only this time
Stock B sells, make profit 500
Stock C accumulated, buy only, paper gains 1000

Very simple story lah, up to you want to believe or not loh

Haiyohe if hengheng is over hedging, bank will not give her 5blah.
If hengheng loss 1000m in hedging, bank nampak hengheng pun run loh.
Bank wont lend money to gamblers lah
This MTN proved hengheng business very healthy.
O&G company is very difficult to get MTN.
Only very good company can get MTN.
Sunway has established 3b MTN in March. Sunway good or bad company?
If the statements about unrealize derivatives loss is true ,means bank is doing charityloh

Uncle,when crack is high, you mentioned high crack spread will cause deviviaitivess loss.
Now, why you no mention low crack spread will make derivative gains?

Well done Ali，if Heng Heng management clarifying the hedging loss , hengheng wil limit up immediately.