Petron likely gains about 90m +++
Share price should climb to above 5
guessing petron no siok lah
Everyone can find out via petron phi mah
Hengyuan much hard to guess
Always big surprise

Safe buy is petron lah
Already know petron first quarter result mah
About 80• 110m
Got dividen lagi lei
Untung silt tapi safe buy petron
Untung banyak tapi risk buy Hengyuan

me too
but very hard lah
Petron already record juicy result
Hengyuan will follow one
Market waiting red red result but if they see black black result
price will be 4+

Sslee say this year derivatives crack margin is 9.5 to 36.10 loh
very promising to deliver hedging gains after Q1

Hedging at. 20 means , when deliver stocks at market crack let’s say 9. Hengyuan gains 11 usd per barrel loh
1 quarter hedge 9 million barrels enough loh
300+million every quartrer loh just for derivatives gains lei
Don’t play play
The hedging is from jan 2023 to June 2024. 5 quarter to make 1500 ++ m lei

But
Worry Chinaman je

Petron said that the increase in financing cost was partly tempered by the mark-to-market valuation of its commodity hedges
Commodity hedges untung lei!

Petron’s combined retail sales from the Philippines and Malaysia jumped by 12% on increased mobility.

“The consistent rise in fuel demand and better industry conditions, combined with our efficiency and volume-generating measures contributed to our results in the first quarter. Despite external challenges, we remain confident in our ability to navigate the highs and lows of this industry as we work on achieving a full financial recovery this year,” Mr. Ang said.

The company said that despite the 16% decrease in crude prices for the first quarter, it managed to report an operating income of P8.4 billion, fueled by higher sales volume and strong regional refining margins.

Petron said that the increase in financing cost was partly tempered by the mark-to-market valuation of its commodity hedges.

Sound good ?

PETRON philipines registered net income P3.4 billion lei
Petron Malaysia and Hengyuan will follow boh?
High sales! Petrol diesel jet fuel, all high demand!
Petron Philippine say strong refining margin in first quarter loh
Time to reconsider Heng Heng and petron … buy ?

3.4 b peso is RM 272m loh

News about Bandar Malaysia shall resurface soon

Collect!
Mm is pressing to kill call warrant
5288 will rebound towards 0.6 after call warrant expired
Golden time to collect

No worry about call warrant de
As MSc call warrant is not popular. Very low volume

Bought at 0.38
Waiting QR / hsr to fly
8877 is Low risk high return lei
Many retailers were washed out already , ready to fly

Besok buys some 8877
Bandar Malaysia goreng ekovest iwcity malton. Wct mrcb ytl …

DSAI support LRT in penang lei
Obviously DSAI weighted public transport lah
Hsr will restart very soon lah
Bandar Malaysia ni sure make ekovest great again

good job sslee
but lei
North Korea man and Winnie the Pooh chinaman will always have same answer one
“It is a piece of sensitive information, which should not be disclosed to any third party”

This one can trade only
, don’t hold lah
This suck company know nothing about hedging one

banl 3.19
Thanks to jeremy grantham tactics
sell us stocks , buy Japan and emerging market
S&P 500 will reach 2400 ?
Lucky had sold all BANL last week lah
But this straight lose money lei
Recession is coming soon
Prepare cash and keep value company only lah
Malton will earn 2.08 through pavilion Bukit Jalil mall.
Share price just 0.43
Crazy lah

cut loss and move to malton
Media keep report Pavilion reit buy pavilion mall
But no mentioned about what malton going to do with RM 2.2 bil lei
2.2 bil / 2 /528 m = 2.08 but share price only 0.42 lei

Why media never report one?
2.2 bil in RM lei , media oh media always partner with banker

Dji down, KLSE down
Dji up, KLSE also down lei
How to invest KLSE lei?

Bills kebling lah haiyoh
Last time big profit in valeron , thought Hengyuan will give the same. Then, lose 20k in Hengyuan，lucky 20k is RM not USD loh
This round please double win yah. 0080 0.27 yah.

Lucky had some 0080 this morning. All is free now after taking some profit in banl
400% untung.

Banl 20 lol
Lucky had bought some this morning.
Take some profit at 20++

Banl 17.90 lei
This stocks going to fly very high

Back to 3.8-4.2 hovering there until next story loh
Q2 667m profit no LU , in fact it down loh
Q3 640m loss only mah, no more huge pending derivatives loss lei
Haiyah, US stocks much easy to made money lah
Chinaman stock really jjptr

Yahloh at least no more worry about the pending unrealised hedging loss of 1000m liao

Sslee, your data accurate one boh?
Than why cost per barrel is so high lei ?
5751m for 11m barrels is reasonable lah
But now Q3 sales was only 8.9m only lei

Mungkin 30% untung dari VLO lenyap. Sakit

So sad, hy become titanic
production downtime reduces 18% revenue
9 millions sales generate such revenue is ok one lah
9 x 124 x 4.5 = 5022
But why 9 million barrels x 101 x 4.5 = 5751m?

Paper gain become cut loss
Better invest valero
Chinaman really amazing
All refinery stock make money, except this china stock!

Macam petron crude distillation capacity of 88,000 barrels per day
3months =7.92m only lah
But impossible to run 100% rate one mah
3month Sales 8.6m
Obviously
Petron import finished product lah
If you read Agm reports
You know they import gasoline loh
Thats why cost per barrels for petron is so high loh
When gasoline price in July dropped drastically
Petron suffer loh. They import expensive gasoline in June and sell cheap cheap in July lei

Both have different Average cost as well lah
Q2 petron: 136
Hy: 126
Q1 petron:110
Hy: 100

Yahloh , hy is different from petron mah
Those sell hy because of petron results sure regret
Show u guy the difference loh
There is no correlation between hy and petron loh
Tomorrow last chance to grab before it fly loh

okloh
Let’s see 2020 Q2 Petron record a loss in gross profit
But
Hy gross profit is gain 105m lei

Worry hy will be same as petron poor results keh ?
Haiyoh
2021 we compared
PAT Petron vs Hy
Q1 100m vs 16m
Q2 40m vs -59m
Q3 3m vs -54m
Q4 60m vs 180m

2022 we see
Q1 106m vs 47m
Q2 183m vs 667m
Q3 32m vs ???

No much relation lah
Because lei
Majority of petron finished product is Ron 95 lah
While Hy major in diesel lah

Anticipating Hy will made derivatives big big gain loh
Pending loss became pending gain lah kali ini
This already happened in petron loh
Ini kari lah

Omg
If prove that the missile was from Russia
World war 3?

I want see world cup lei

28.25 m profit ( 30m ) was due to higher handling cost of oil and finished product

Petron pay 19% of oil price for the handling cost loh
Is too much lei
Normal rate is 5~9% only lah

Really disappointed lei

Means petron net margin is 124 - 119 = 5only lah

Gross profit 190 m only lah

Eps 1.3 + pending hedging loss decreases sharply good enough loh
Thank you sslee for the petron’s data lah

Average selling price should be 124~130
Means Q3 crack spread 24 to 30 only lah

Vlo 140 liao! Refinery stocks rally’s higher last night lah
Some even challenging record high
VLO record high is 143
US market really understand low crude oil high finished product favour to refinery stock
Not like here lah
Still stick to mogas 92 and oil price only
Hy Q2 pending hedging loss 1000m will reduce to 100m only or maybe turn black loh
Q2 PAT 667m is real one lah
Q3 gross profit 900 m + hedging gain 1m enough loh

From petron Q3
Minimum Average selling price USD 124
Average oil price USD 100

24 x 4.53 x 11m = 1195m

Alamak meaning hedging pending loss 1000m for hy will reduce to 100 m ? macam ni means hy Q2 PAT 667m is real one lei. Any sifu can interpret boh? Like that must buy back hy lei.

Meaning Q4 is yummy

Macam Q4 baru can make derivatives gains

page 43 , 45 show something about derivative lah
Since 2021 , Only Q3 can see derivatives assets more than derivatives liabilities lei
Good sign?

Commodity Swaps. The Group has outstanding swap agreements covering its oil requirements, with various maturities. Under the agreements, payment is made either by the Group or its counterparty for the difference between the hedged fixed price and the relevant monthly average index price. Total outstanding equivalent notional quantity covered by the commodity swaps were 14.3 million barrels and 24.6 million barrels as of June 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively. The estimated net pay- outs for these transactions amounted to (P2,448) and (P543) as of June 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively.

Commodity Swaps. The Group has outstanding swap agreements covering its oil requirements, with various maturities. Under the agreements, payment is made either by the Group or its counterparty for the difference between the hedged fixed price and the relevant monthly average index price. Total outstanding equivalent notional quantity covered by the commodity swaps were 16.8 million barrels and 24.6 million barrels as of September 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively. The estimated net pay-outs for these transactions amounted to (P249) and (P543) as of September 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively.

2021 net income (phl) vs PAT (petronM)
Q1 1.73 b vs 103 m
Q2 2.14 b vs 42 m
Q3 1.11 b vs 32 m
Q4 1.15 b vs 60.5 m

2022
Q1 3.6 b vs 106 m
Q2 4.1 b vs 183 m
Q3 0.5 b vs. ???

In addition, starting March 31, 2012, the Group’s exposure to foreign currency risks also arise from US dollar-denominated sales and purchases, principally of crude oil and petroleum products, of Petron Malaysia whose transactions are in Malaysian ringgit, which are subsequently converted into US dollar before ultimately translated to equivalent Philippine peso amount using applicable rates for the purpose of consolidation.

Kesian petron corp kena twice usd loss r

Market expect petron Q3 very poor
Is based on net profit of petron Philippine mah
Hy and petron use different operations mah
They similar in product selling price only mah

Btw, petron Q3 maybe not as bad as market expected lei

2021 PAT Hy vs petron
Q1 16m vs 103m
Q2 -69m vs 42m
Q3 -54m vs 32m
Q4 180m vs 60.5m

2022
Q1 47m vs 106m
Q2 667m vs 183m

Cant see any relation lei

More panic sell please lah
Q at 434435lei

But lei if you look to past QR, there is an 1-6% increments in purchase cost lah
So 11 m x 4.435 x ( 127 - 99x 1.05) = 1124 m

Hedging part lose 400 m lagi? Eps pun 2.00 loh
Siapa jump ship nanti pasti regret

Alamak Q3 usd macam average 4.5 lei

From petron reports roughly estimates their finished product average prices at 127lah
Crude oil average at 99 lah
Revenue of hy macam ni kira boleh?
Revenue = 11m x 4.35 x 127

Purchased cost mcm ni boleh?
Purchased = 11m x 4.35 x 99 x 1.1

Gross profit = revenue - purchased

What is happening lei?
Oil bullish
Diesel bullish
Jet fuel bullish
China ease travel restrictions
US Refinery stocks break year high

What coming in December to feb 2023 lei?
China ease covid restrictions
EU’s russia oil sanctions

Technically lei
Chart bullish

Coming Quarter results lei
Hedging loss turn to gain
Gross profit more than 600m
Eps at least 0.90

Rolling 4 quarter Eps more than 4.00
Probably 5-6
2022 Eps maybe 6-8
PE 1.5 pun 7.5 to 12
PE 2 pun 10-16

Apa investors mau lagi lei?

Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the U.S. warning of an imminent attack from Iran on targets in the kingdom, putting the American military and others in the Middle East on an elevated alert level, said Saudi and U.S. officials

It is rare for the red flag to be raised on this mosque outside the month of Muharram. “Due to the martyrdom of general Qassem Soleimani and his comrades, and after hearing the supreme leader calling for a harsh revenge, we unfurled this flag so that all (Shia) believers in the world and all the freedom fighters gather around this flag to avenge Qassem Soleimani’s blood unjustly shed,” Abadi told AFP.