This week 520 ok?

Malu tapi kadang2 benar.
Sakit tapi apa boleh buat?
Engine rosak, captain bodoh

Bumi sometimes jadi batu mah
Always watching this lah , this Hengyuan always limit up mah
Cw anytime make 2000% returns loh

Watching msc too, tin price is In uptrend loh

But before buy Hengyuan
Think carefully yah
Because
The management is Chinaman yah.

haiyoh we all know refinery companies need crack margin 4 to break even loh
Imagine lah if you are the hedging manager lah
When you see refining margin goes up to 12
What is your action lei?
Push the buy button lah of course
Lock in gross profit of 8*4.2*10millions = 320 millions loh
Who knows russian will attack Ukraine lei at that time?

So, the manager hedge maybe 1 ~2 million barrels every months until 2024 loh. It is possible to hedge 5 millions barrels for 33 months? Impossible lah.

In 2022, refining margin surge to the moon lah
The manager continues hedge loh.

Checking CME data, hedging price after July 2022, is below 9 lah
So, the manager no more hedge after July loh.

That’s why we see the margin is 9.5~36.1 loh

One more things yah
The margin in 2022 is 8~12.30
lazy explain lah
Go check the data, you will find in which quarter they were hedging lah
Is FIFO one lah. Most of margin below 12 had been closed position in 2022lah. Forwards, Hengyuan enjoy very high very high crack spread margin lah.

Noticed this year, refining margin is above normal loh

Diesel maybe a bit lower but they already hedge it high mah

shipping cost & insurance premiums pun dah turun lah

Btw we already full load in petron m loh. Hengyuan no rush, buy slowly while others tak
Percaya loh

Tesla up 7% loh kayanya my cowboy sifu

My cowboy sifu group continue buy slowly, 2Q pasti cantik

Hengyuan Ada keuntungan lah
loss is due to 2022 derivatives liabilities of 400-500 millions mah
Hengyuan record higher PAT than Petronm lah

Wow betul juga
Weak PM = weak RM
Hopeless loh

Please check 2020 4Q result yah
Refined margin is negative USD 1
But PAT is 171 millions

2020 oil price drop like hell lah
But Hengyuan making profits in 2020 oh…

In 2020 derivatives hedging only 2.05—-23.05
Good enough to provide few hundred million gains in derivatives loh
2023 we have 12—-36.1 loh
Guess how much gains can get lei
All data available in Hengyuan report yah
Data no lies

If Miss dnex don’t miss ekovest yah
Kebling told u don’t panic sell dnex
Dnex results is not bad
Ekovest result is fantastic
Hengyuan result is top
My cowboy sifu team with certified accountant lah
Kebling know blowing only lah

House passes us debt ceiling bill
Senate next

understand Deferred tax already ? Another stock pending to fly because of deferred tax is ekovest yah

Dnex at this price has no worry lah
0.6 after state elections maybe

This result mean ekovest is damn cheap
0.60 at least loh

Amateur only thought this is bad results
As kebling told dnex holder not to panic sell
Is deferred tax lah
Take out deferred tax lah
Eko making 30 millions loh
Is a fantastic result lah
If don’t know Go ask chatgpt what is deferred tax yah

My sifu modeling assumptions is based on updated data yah so might changes yah
2Q left June lah , should be accurate lah
Read the quarter report carefully
You will find out
Hengyuan is enjoying hedging gains lah
Gains, a lot of gains. Juicy and yummy lah

Tomorrow ekovest cheap sales lah
Deferred tax again like dnex
If they panic sell
Repeat yesterday story like dnex
1 hours can make 10% profits loh

One more counter to be panic sell because of deferred tax loh
If you miss dnex at 0.37/8
Tomorrow grab some ekovest yah hahaha
Ekovest deffered tax cause many retailers think it is bad quarter result lah
But in fact ekovest very charming result lah, deferred tax pun tahu panic sell loh…
We grab cheap like dnex sure win lah

Crude premium is going down loh
Hengyuan no afraid margin down lah
Hedging at 12 promise minimum gross profit of 270m lah
With condition no high crude premium lah
Since logistic cost had fallen lah
2Q anticipates minimum EPS 0.66 loh
But my cowboy sifu modelling predict that
eps will be 1.20—-2.15 lah
Lets see betul keh salah

The cost to charter a Long Range (LR) vessel on the Middle East to Singapore route has dropped to slightly below $25 a tonne from around $34 a tonne in the last two months, they added. That is half the cost for the same ship to travel to Europe, they said.

Grab dnex at 0.38 and Hengyuan 3.14
Panic sell has no difference with transfer money to others account lah

Told you , dnex just deferred tax, don’t panic sell
Hengyuan hedging is making hundred millions, don’t panic sell
Unless you want help us collect more at 2.98 and 2.50 lah haha

Hengyuan hedge huge refining margin in 2021 4Q loh
Hedging margin around 11-12 , for every months until September 2024 loh
(Not 100% of the sales volume yah ) they hedge for above 12 in 2022 1Q , and 24-36 in 2Q. Valero and marathon no this action loh. Only crazy hengyuan doing this gambling thing.

Nowadays, us refinery suffering for low refining margin loh
They need refining margin 4-5 to break even lah
But refining margin is very very low now

The only one benefit is Hengyuan loh
They had lock in their refining margin at least 12 until Sep 2024

That’s why my cowboy sifu ask me to sell valero but follow hengyuan lah
Wait the right time to enter…. 2.5 ?
Last year lose so many money in this counter…

nta melonjat dari 4..579 to 5.56
Year end back to 7 lah since derivatives gains so huge



Please panic sell yah
I want buy at 2.5 yah

Profit after tax should be 200-300 millions loh
Haiyah about 490m liability is from last year mah
This quarter hedging is gain lah , don’t focus eps only lah
read report please lah

Those not understand deferred tax will panic sell dnex
Those not understand derivatives hedging will panic sell hengyuan

For April -May 2023
Global refining margins is about usd 4 by average loh
Others refinery going to loss in 2Q loh

But since hengyuan hedge at 24-36 in 2Q last year
Hengyuan will gains 1100 millions for the hedging done in 2Q.
And 270millions for others quarter
Estimate only yah

Hengyuan is difference to others refinery lah
Because hengyuan is the only one crazy in hedging activity lah
That’s is why hengyuan loss so much last year when others is making’s money lah

Those not understand deferred tax will Panic sell dnex
Those not understand hedging will panic sell hengyuan

Buy on dip hehe

You will see hedging gains next quarter yah
Read the A18 please yah

If take out 490m derivatives liabilities that occurred 2Q last year
hengyuan dapat gross profit 440millions

this quarter is excellent lah! Gross profit this quarter actually is 440 millions lah
Haiyoh

Moving forwards
Hengyuan will enjoy derivatives hedging gains

Due to hedging strategies
Hengyuan ni different to others refinery stock loh
This year others refinery hard to make profits loh
2023-2024 sep is hengyuan harvest time
They hedge from 9.5-36 loh
Refining margin very thin nowadays lah
Hedging contracts turn hundred millions soon lah

Tomorrow buy on dip

Big promotion stocks lah this one is good company
pE so low
How come only 0.46
Everyone quarters make money lei

Ask sifu cowboy to read Hengyuan reports,
Sifu Cowboy conclusions really interesting loh

Hengyuan will make hundred millions/ quarter from second quarter 2023 to third quarter 2024 loh
Provided crack margin keep below 12 lah

Sound weird lei. I not understand too
I thought margin up up is good.

But sifu cowboys is expert in valero loh. He estimates Hengyuan will made 900millions in 2023. Right or not kebling tak tahu yah. Do your own research yah.

Since demand and margin very strong , and tapis stay around 70-80lah. Petronm will gain about the same profit at second quarter.lah.

Dividend 0.25 plus eps 0.4
Share price go to the moon ok boh?

Hengyuan pending derivatives loss drag down profit lah
If No loss in profit before tax consider good loh

Can’t fight recessions
Haiiiiiz
Market no money
Focus on hot stocks only

Coming report, eye on derivatives yah
If the deriviatives loss had turn around lei
meaning forwards, hengheng will start enjoying derivatives gains loh

After petron results out , petron will move to 5
Hengheng will follow a bit and if hengheng result is good good one
Hengheng fly back to 4.2-4.6

If tapis price keep at this low level lah
than in Year end , petron and hengheng maybe back to 6 -7 loh


Hehe , above is my sifu sifu say one at dinner yah
not me yah
Kebling lose many money in hengheng last year. Waiting to buy back hengheng to take my money back lah

Cauca panas
Need money pay TNB bills lah

Already bought petron / Hengyuan high risk high gain

Blind also know Malaysia need GST
Need Bandar Malaysia ,need hsr Singapore-Thailand
But Anwar busy counting numbers of aircond

Petron is making 100m profits
Hengyuan lei?
Loss again?
Or make 200m profits?
Whole market awaiting red red report
Later profit 50m with no more derivatives loss
Limit up hahaha

Highlights of the first quarter performance were as follows:
Consolidated Sales Volume was up by 11% to 28.59 million barrels (MMB) versus 25.67 MMB in the same period last year. Except for exports, all Sales Trade posted improvements from the growing fuel demand. Commercial sales grew owing to the rebound in the aviation sector as more countries lifted their COVID-19 quarantine protocols. Retail sales also continued its recovery resulting from the increased mobility in both Philippines and Malaysia
Net Sales rose by 10% to P= 188.75 billion primarily from the growth in sales volume. Meanwhile, the effect of lower benchmark Dubai average from USD95.56/bbl in 1Q 2022 to USD80.32/bbl this year was partially offset by the depreciation of the peso against US dollar from P= 51.54/USD to P= 54.84/USD.
Similarly, Cost of Goods Sold increased by 10% to P= 176.72 billion from higher sales volume. While commodity prices softened this year, the strong regional refining cracks were sustained improving gross profit by P316 million to P= 12.04 billion from =P 11.72 billion last year
Selling and Administrative Expenses was 10% higher at P= 4.01 billion as against P3.64 billion in the 1Q last year due to the increase in maintenance and repairs at the service stations, terminals, and IT-related assets and LPG cylinder purchases.
Other Operating Income increased to P= 394 million from P= 351 million attributed to higher rental income

Highlights of the first quarter performance were as follows:
Consolidated Sales Volume was up by 11% to 28.59 million barrels (MMB) versus 25.67 MMB in the same period last year. Except for exports, all Sales Trade posted improvements from the growing fuel demand. Commercial sales grew owing to the rebound in the aviation sector as more countries lifted their COVID-19 quarantine protocols. Retail sales also continued its recovery resulting from the increased mobility in both Philippines and Malaysia
Net Sales rose by 10% to P= 188.75 billion primarily from the growth in sales volume. Meanwhile, the effect of lower benchmark Dubai average from USD95.56/bbl in 1Q 2022 to USD80.32/bbl this year was partially offset by the depreciation of the peso against US dollar from P= 51.54/USD to P= 54.84/USD.
Similarly, Cost of Goods Sold increased by 10% to P= 176.72 billion from higher sales volume. While commodity prices softened this year, the strong regional refining cracks were sustained improving gross profit by P316 million to P= 12.04 billion from =P 11.72 billion last year
Selling and Administrative Expenses was 10% higher at P= 4.01 billion as against P3.64 billion in the 1Q last year due to the increase in maintenance and repairs at the service stations, terminals, and IT-related assets and LPG cylinder purchases.
Other Operating Income increased to P= 394 million from P= 351 million attributed to higher rental income.

Habis reading quarter report of Petron Corporation
Petron first Q profits minimum 100m for sure
Share price nii big promotion loh

Bursa
Msc
Petron
Solarvest
Ytl
TENAGA

Go go go

Very high Profit margin lei
Well done MSc
2.2
2.3
2.6
next quarter lagi best

If you missed glove, TENAGA, ytl, don’t miss this bursa

This one can be very long term investment

Price had show result is very bad lei

Net income attributable to parents is 3038million in peso
Petron will report juicy result this week
Hengyuan next week

Refinery company need low crude price , high crack to make money one
Low crude means low insurance charge , low handling fees , low financial cost loh

Petron likely gains about 90m +++
Share price should climb to above 5
guessing petron no siok lah
Everyone can find out via petron phi mah
Hengyuan much hard to guess
Always big surprise

Safe buy is petron lah
Already know petron first quarter result mah
About 80• 110m
Got dividen lagi lei
Untung silt tapi safe buy petron
Untung banyak tapi risk buy Hengyuan

me too
but very hard lah
Petron already record juicy result
Hengyuan will follow one
Market waiting red red result but if they see black black result
price will be 4+

Sslee say this year derivatives crack margin is 9.5 to 36.10 loh
very promising to deliver hedging gains after Q1

Hedging at. 20 means , when deliver stocks at market crack let’s say 9. Hengyuan gains 11 usd per barrel loh
1 quarter hedge 9 million barrels enough loh
300+million every quartrer loh just for derivatives gains lei
Don’t play play
The hedging is from jan 2023 to June 2024. 5 quarter to make 1500 ++ m lei

But
Worry Chinaman je

Petron said that the increase in financing cost was partly tempered by the mark-to-market valuation of its commodity hedges
Commodity hedges untung lei!

Petron’s combined retail sales from the Philippines and Malaysia jumped by 12% on increased mobility.

“The consistent rise in fuel demand and better industry conditions, combined with our efficiency and volume-generating measures contributed to our results in the first quarter. Despite external challenges, we remain confident in our ability to navigate the highs and lows of this industry as we work on achieving a full financial recovery this year,” Mr. Ang said.

The company said that despite the 16% decrease in crude prices for the first quarter, it managed to report an operating income of P8.4 billion, fueled by higher sales volume and strong regional refining margins.

Petron said that the increase in financing cost was partly tempered by the mark-to-market valuation of its commodity hedges.

Sound good ?