For those looking at RM18, must have strong heart. It will not be as smooth as we think... remember last two week, HRC drop from 6+ to 4.76.. many can't stand..

见好就收.

David,
Good idea.. The land and properties are very much under value... some valuation date back to 1980...

aseng, I never say Petronm no good.. Petronm definitely worth a lot more than current price..

that why they want to built one cost 6.5 billion lor... but take few years (3 years) to built lor...

By 3 years time when Petronm ready, HRC already make almost 3 billion net profit ...!! HRC could have already invest in Myarmar or Indon already..

aseng, you not too correct lor!! HRC has a complex refinery, efficient and productivity... Petronm don't have lor!!

Also I read read and read all the available reports.. count count and think think for more than 3 months... not right ma! terbalik!!

I count count, think think.. HRC market cap should be more than Petronm ma!! Why terbalik one!!

I concur, Probability. HRC will match Petronm and overtake soon..

aseng, understand.. if EPS rm3!! newton law still a little early leh!!

Can slow sikit ah!!

aseng, think think.. hrc still nicer... asume u have 2000 lot of petronm.. how to sell lah.. buy/sell queue only 10 to 100 lot only..

aseng, wait lah slightly longer until end aug.. abalone, pipa duck and roasted goose also can..

David,
Good work..
You think like china man think.. maximize profit while margin is good. I am not surprise FY17 with net profit exceeded 1 billion. Looking at the way they operate at the same time the margin improved and oil price stable.. As Probability say one day earn one cent..365 cents one year!! LOL.
Thank you

Discuss and review our strategy.. no harm.

Technically we call it swing or position trade... you do both. Not many ppl have your skills..

Despite I know the theory, but too rigid to practice it.. tried but failed..

aseng, I m not sifu leh..

Noted and fully understand.

Ms Heng is my wife. Why I decide Heng instead of Petronm? When I started Heng is only 3.x and Petronm 5.8x.. Heng only abt half price compare with Petronm.. further more earning is higher.. I dump dump, buy buy and buy.. No regret until now, in term of percentage Heng still up more then Petronm..

I can't 'swing trade' like you do.. I can't follow the wave correctly. I try it with Mflour.. bought 1.4, sell 2.25.. waiting for below 2.0... yes, it did go down to 2.0 but for short time only. I was too busy to catch it.. after that directly to 2.4.... I left with zero shares..lol.

Briefly same happen to HAIO and Kerjaya... :(

Pang, based on AR, major shareholders dated 31 March 2017.. EPF only left 2.66% equal to 7.975 million shares.

3000 lots just disappear.. sold in a blink.. HRC still strong today.

Yes, be confident.. no mater how ppl sell down, eventually HRC will be breaking 10.. than above.. it is a matter of slightly longer time. The IV will eventually reflected.

Look at the sell queue, 1500 lots at 6.25 and another 1500 lots at 6.30.. only 1 seller.

Let me try to count gross profit.. for one day HRC production and assumed all petrol station sell all in the same day.

each little untung 5 cents (Malaysian ringgit)

One day petrol station profit =129000barrelX159little/barrelX5cents
Equal to 102.555 mil cents = RM1.025550 = USD238,500

HRC profit per day assume margin is USD7.5 per barrel
129000 barrelXUSD7.5 = USD967,500

One day petrol station gross profit USD238,000 and Refinery gross profit USD967,500

We are not sure their operation cost... can't calculate their net profit... but look at their average history figures.. we could estimate..

2nd Q result surely will be good.. 3rd Q result could be even better, look at the margin is increasing at the same time crude price improve..

Who said Ms Heng GF only? I think it is time to take her as 'wife'.. second wife!!... later convert to first wife !!

I have fully confident and convince she can perform well as 'wife'..

thank you.. good morning.. :)

suregain, the above article from which org?

Sound more logical.. If PE 6?

Refinery stocks in this region are about 6 or 7 at this moment..

Sui.. Like.. Cheers..

LOL..

I am watching.. wait for the big fish... shhh.. touch-touch only. I want above.

Probability post the same chart 18 July..

At RM5.90, HRC PE (ttm) is 3.45 and Petronm (RM8.20) PE (ttm) is 6.72...

@Lee, I don't take the tip bulat-bulat. I will perform my detail analysis.. sometime include sending communicate with the company contact person for clarification.

I can't read 700+ company reports.. based on pointer I narrow down to several companies.. So far so good. My return is good, especially 2017.

@pang, actually not true. comparing 3 months (from 24 April), HRC up 49.75% and Petronm up 26.35%. As for YTD, HRC up 190.64% and Petronm up 97.59%.

Let me know any good tip in the future..

So strong.. at 5.90.. buy in lot of 800, 700, 500..etc.. look like just sapu by some big player... not bilis like us.

For information only..MBSB property loan is minimum. Mainly personal loan and corporate loan.

Recap... for new comer..
1. HRC business operation only one - oil refinery.
2. Refinery capacity 156,000 barrel per day
3. Refinery profit margin average of USD 6.07 per barrel in 2015 and USD 5.46 per barrel in 2016.
4. Net profit for 2015, 352 million (EPS 117 cents). For 2016, 335 (EPS 112 cents)
5. Profit margin is increasing, for 2017 so far is above USD 7 per barrel; at this moment July 2017 above USD 9 per barrel. Theoritically net profit for 2017 should be far more than 2016 and 2015.

Simple logic.. the only problem now is investors confident. let hrc report another few Q of good net profit. will be back to rm10 ..

i concur.. like.

I agree, EPS for 2017 at least RM2.00+.. In view of margin is increasing..possibility may reach RM3.

This is good share.. growing revenue, good profit, good management, good dividend.. bright future.

I manage to bought some mid and end of May 2017.. Happy to see it moving fast now.

Orang up 30, kita up 6.. orang drop 11, kita pun drop 10.. :( not too nice. LOL.

What is going on here today?

All of a sudden moving up so much..

I hold some, few months already.. :).

At RM5.80 HRC PE ratio (TTM) is only 3.39... if PE ratio for refinery is 6... mean HRC could worth RM10..

As for Petronm (RM8.36) PE ratio (TTM) is 6.85. If refinery plus retail PE ratio is 10.. mean Petronm worth RM12.20..

DrNeoh,
Can share the reasons?

Let analyst the negative side... (since we have discussed positive side in great detail)

Why HRC share price is low (compare with Petronm) at this moment.. following are possible reasons/ reasons being discussed so far....
1. Some ppl think HRC is chinaman company, 'red chip'.. can not be trusted.
2. No dividend since 2013
3. Refinery facilities need upgrade, abt RM700mil needed..
4. No retail outlet; petrol stations (but HRC supply to Shell abt 1000 station compare with petronm 580)..
5. Government will change policy anytime suka suka..
6. Oil price will drop to below USD30
7. HRC has 1.3 bil borrowing
8. No institution buying HRC
9....
Anyone can think of others..

1, Not true lor... HRC is Malaysian incorporated company under Malaysia law. Not red chip lor.
2. Yes, hopefully HRC board of director can consider next financial year.
3. Yes, this is needed compliant to the law and also improve the efficiency. (Petronm need 6.5 billion to upgrade their facilities)
4. Without petrol station, concentrate on refinery could be more profitable..
5. Mis-concept.. Government can not suka-suka. It is guided by law...rule and regulation.
6. Should be benefiting instead of disadvantage.
7. Yes, we also must look at HRC has 300 mil cash and 1 bil inventory.
8. No, refer to AR.. ASB (6.62%), ASW (3.68%), EPF (2.66%)..AS AT 31 March 2017.

CKCS, I believe you. Share price up and down.. definitely will go below current price... However I have started accumulating HRC when it was RM3+.. in fact more than half of my currently holding are.. I am not too worry HRC dip down below RM5 or even RM4... again over the time I did some buy/sell trx... my cost is adjusted lower.. As long as long term up trend, I am happy.. I don't expect RM18... but I think above RM10 is very possible in medium term.

Look at HRC prior oil crisis under Shell Refinery. It share price is always above RM10.. in fact at all time higher than Esso (Petronm). Petronm took over Esso much earlier than HRC. They have restructured and improve Esso, but HRC took over Shell about 6 months ago... they may need some time...

There are still few 'issues' need to taken care by HRC. Once 'resolved', HRC go above RM10 is not impossible..