Hi CKCS,
Do you think how much HRC will drop? RM4, RM3 or RM2... and briefly when it will drop, let me have some time to take profit!! :)... appreciate your sharing..

NTA will have to increase.. If HRC EPS RM2, totally no dividend.. NTA (in theory) should increase by rm2 every year... in the form of cash, asset, lesser borrowing..etc.

During recent AGM, the chairman did mentioned that they are looking at SEA not Malaysia alone. I believed they will expand to SEA once they stable the situation.

HRC is not red chips.. The board of director, 4 Malaysian, 2 Chinaman, 1 Angmo. Management team all Malaysian, 4 Melayu, 1 Indian and 1 Chinese.

Hi,
Datuk Yvonne Chia and Datuk Zainun no longer director of HRC effective 1st June 2017. Replaced by Mr Liang Kok Siang and Pn Faiziah Hisham.

Lotte Korea parent company in very big trouble due to the installation of THAAD missile systems..more than half of their store at china were force closed by chinese local authority recently. All Korean products were boycott by Chinese/Russian. They need plenty of money to bring back to stabilize the situation..

KIA car sales drop by about 75% in china... you can imagine how serious is the situation between Korea and China.

Yes. RM7.x is more realistic for short term... RM10.!! can buy underwear cap bintang already... LOL..

One off gain... related to asset impairment RM460.9 mil dated 31 Dec 2014?

Yes, in two months with greater profit.. Please look at slightly longer term. This could be a good opportunity to add..

Today I add a little more.. LOL.

This is CAPEX.. like buying asset. Depreciate over the years.

http://digital.theedgemalaysia.com/theedgemediagroup/books/tem/2017/20170612tem/#/23/


I am not sure it can be link without subscription..

Let don't be too optimistic on TP. Rm1.6 is ok but not rm4. MBSB has some advantage over other banks but at the same time also has a lot of disadvantages..example weak management, staff knowhow, backward systems..etc etc. They need a lot of time to clean up and improve.. 2 to 3 years maybe too short for them... they are not cimb or citi type of ppl.. move much much slower than you think.

Probability, your prediction this morning become reality.. cun cun.

Both volume is so low... no seller.

Base on AR, inventory is base on actual cost...

Good analysis. It further enhance my confident to hold even longer.

Why china want to invest in Malaysia (and other belt road countries) and build a lot of infra?

There are several reasons..
1. China has trillion of dollar in US treasury bond with practically ZERO return. Instead of let Ang Mo freely spend. They created Asia Infrastructure Bank to invest.. WHen they invest in our Infra they charge some interest and we will pay back over the years.. so they got untung here.
2. Over the years building their internal infrastructure, China has come to a situation too much infra building material,, steel, cement..etc. With our project they redirect the excess material to us... again they untung.
3. With these infra ready trade will improve... most importantly they can easily buy raw material for these countries... china untung again..
4..
5. and many more.

In short it is win win situation.

meistsk, I disagree with you. I did do a little study on belt & road initiative.

His holding in HRC and Petronm is really substantial; should be much heavier in HRC. His inaccurate and funny comments is due to he intends make the weaker doubtful and finally left...so....LOL.

Noted.. My target not reach yet. I will hold until my target or above.. not less 1 cents.
I have same feeling with you, HRC worth for more than this price. However it need a lot more time.

I add more early this morning.. :)

If I remember correctly from AL, Shell/HRC sell crude oil only less than 10 milion a year. Compare with refinery above 8 Billion a year.

Noticed that one (or more) big player perform market sell in block (of hundred) since 3 days ago when the price was rm5.80. Each day several round..

Correction.. Crude oil already recover from usd100 and company is making profit in 2015.

If we analyst "Independent Advice Circular dated 19 January 2017", we can find the reasons why shell sell their 51% to Shangdong Hengyuan. I believe beside these reasons there are more 'hidden' reason at higher level between Shell (Dutch) and Shandong Hengyuan (china).
At that point of their negotiation the shell refinery share price is around RM5 to 6, crude oil around USD100 and company making losses.

Thanks probalility.. I start collecting since RM3+..add 4+.. add a little more at 5+. My original target is RM6.5. I think need to review..

Base on one of the report early this year (KLSE available) the Euro 4 upgrade estimate could cost USD144mil. However base on information from AGM Chairman Mr Wang repeated say China systems is much lower cost and more efficient.. and is proven in china for several year already..

Need to be fair to MBSB mgmt/CEO. Merger is like married. You cant really force the girl to marry you.
However with new major shareholder (CMY) involvement, hope the merger is on..

The Chairman Mr Wang did tell some key point during AGM.. cant recall all.
1. HRC is plan for SEA market. Not purely for Malaysia. Some minor product may be export to China with condition HRC can produce cheaper... HRC raw material (Crude oil) is cheaper than china...
2. China's Euro 4/5 systems/process is cheaper to implement and more efficient. Tested in China for past several years (10 or 6 can't remember exactly). Only two companies in the world has these technology; one in china and one in US.....China one is already matured. They are confident can do euro 4 upgrade by 3Q 2018..
3. MD Stals said some major downtime (2 months?) expected in 2018 during euro 4 implementation..

EPS for 2017Q1 93.16 cents..

Add more at 4.65..

Stated in annual report, no dividend for 2016. Need to wait for another 12 months if the director declare div... however I felt it is unlikely. Reason being a lot of capex needed for the upgrade projects.

however you may pick back when correction..

I felt is it too early to take profit.

I am in this party.. in fact already almost 2 months.

I think you are based on KLSE Screener.. that is not accurate.

Anyone can tell me why HY is so much cheaper compare with Petron? The only reason I know is refinery facilities is old need to be upgraded... upgrading is in progress.
1. Petro station - Petron 580, HY abt 1100 - almost double, the petrol sales has direct relation with petrol station.
2. EPS - Petron 87 cents compare with HY 117 cents, abt 30% more.
3. Asset. land etc - HY more than Petron.
4. 60% of ship going through Mal st are Chinese related.. compare with PHI minimum.
5. More Chinese air plane landed at KLIA/KLIA2, logically use HY... compare with PHI

Recently AFB appointed a new CEO after long time without a CEO. Bank's CEO require BNM approval... as such I think the deal between MBSB and AFB is ON.. logically BNM should not create another variable toward the end of merger talk.. The new AFB CEO COULD BE for the merger .. agreed by both parties and BNM informed.. do you think logical?

I agree with the author.. thanks for sharing your view.

I agree with greatful. This is another round of cheating..

I did a google search for PRS return..Based on CIMB Islamic and Affin, the average annualized return is about 5 / 6 % for the last 3 years. Not sure how is the dividend declared.

Hi Mr Tan, Do you know what is the historical dividend so far?

Good and thanks for sharing..

like.. yes I make similar mistake frequent.

good analysis.

Igbreit is definitely over price. Investors need to wait few years before reaching it real market value. No doubt midv and gard are the best properties... investor pay a high premium (I think unreasonable high)for these 'best properties'.. where it unable to generate expected rental.. we are investor, don't think should fall in love with the properties.

I would like to have the books.. thank you very much.
my e-mail khooken@gmail.com

Malaysia household debt is at peak 83% to GDP ratio (property 44%+, personal 18%+), at the same time market still having plenty of liquidity. RM22 billion in the conventional system and RM4.04 billion in Islamic funds. Short term rate remain stable (OPR 3%).

What do you think the POSSIBLE consequences will be? Especially on following areas

1. Stock Market (Finance, property, trading, construction, consumer..etc)
2. Property price
3. Ringgit exchange rate
4. Medium term OPR and BLR
5. Household income
6. Malaysia economic growth (GDP)
7. Inflation
8. etc