Raider,
Why you keep quoting Euro 5 upgrade project cost 700million? The press release dated 25 August 2017 indicate that the project cost USD135million (app RM580million). After RM appreciate against USD for the past few months; from 4.4 to 4.06 at this moment... 135*4.06 = RM548million... (not 700 mil as you mentioned)

Paper,
This is my second luck.. My first luck is Commerce Asset to CIMB. many years ago. Second luck Shell Refinery to Hengyuan..

Hengyuan USD$135 million upgrading project. Taking the recent ringgit appreciation into consideration the project will only cost RM548million, instead of previously quoted RM580 million. Total saving 32 million..

High risk! Compare with ?
Please remember this is a complex refinery. Compare with Petronm simple refinery. Petronm need about 6 billion to upgrade to refinery comparable with Hengyuan.. at the same time took years to upgrade.

The good thing is Petronm has 500+ petrol station all over Malaysia. However HRC refined products were 100% sold and require more to meet Shell stations demand. This situation will continue for the next 9 years (1 year over).

Operation efficiency risk being addressed at this moment. Actually the only risk for HRC is the "crack spread".

Will overtaking petronm at 13+ and stay forward..

秦梦瑶..早!

I would like to see HRC overtaking Petronm at 13 and stay ahead..

good morning KYY..

blow water?

Alex,
We already huat.. huat yesterday, today, tomorrow and huat everyday..

Oil price high(Brent or Crude) is not a good news for oil refinery business. Oil price up mean operating cost for refinery will be higher. As for Stock gain for that particular QR will be eventually offset in the future when oil price coming down; bottomline zero impact for long term.

The better environment for refinery is oil price stable... the best is Crack Spread maintain high and minimum downtime for maintenance.

No need to be in hurry.. just slowly sail to 15 then 18..

LOL

So strong.. not too late to switch..

For information, CapitalCube has change HRC status from Neutral to Undervalue..

Probability,
The document is complex and dry.. you are torturing me to read and understand.. LOL.

Personally I felt that Petronm already almost fully valued at current price, but HRC still have plenty of room to grow.. Could be a good time to switch to HRC.. What do you think?

Q3 "400mil" profit excitement just over and HRC settled at around 11.30, not as we hope above 12. Actually performance not bad lor; under such a weak market.
Basically I am happy and satisfied for the time being..

I agree with rchi.

Probability also presented the detail calculation in this forum much earlier. For those doubtful, I suggest scroll back... it will definitely benefit you.

Pang,
Beside ASB...How about ASW (11 mil 3.68%) and AS1M (1.27 mil 0.42%) both are under Amanahraya Trustees.. maybe both also sold some already.

I did attend the last HRC AGM and read all the available reports/documents.

HRC management current task is complete the upgrade project and improve operation efficiency/minimized unplanned down time.

Following are my opinion..
1. I don't think HRC will issue bonus issue, split or right issue in near future.
2. I don't think HRC will pay Dividend in near future

Reason being..
This is the first China investment in refinery out of China. They are not here to get money and bring back China, but they are here to expend their business into South East Asia in a big way... at the same time supporting Belt and Road initiative. The Chairman clearly indicate that they want to expand this business once they take control and settled their internal issues (which is upgrade and operation efficiency). So please don't look at PD Jalan Pantai refinery only...

We have gone through this situation at least 5 times since early this year.. People with wisdom will be the final winner.. I still believe in fundamental..

Raider,
Don't you think Petronm has more solid reasons to regain the ground back to 12+.. Where HRC will sail to 15.. Kikiki..

Finally HRC overtake Petronm by 14 sen..

HRC is a growing company. Need some capital to expend the business. The first step is to upgrade existing facilities to tip-top condition.. to improve production efficiency... PD facilities is only a stepping stone for expanding further to entire South East Asia. If you read the Hengyuan/Shell take over documents or attend their AGM you will understand their vision..
I am not surprise if HRC announce another big expending project in SEA next AGM; May 2018..

Aseng can't go to reg office to marry second wife.. He ask Probility to become witness.. LOL..

Hello,
Aseng already married second wife already.. two moon ago.. second wife is overpower first wife at this moment..

Be calm, don't chase.. steady...

Refinery companies around this region with TTM PE around 8+ at this moment. Let target HRC TTM PE only at 6 for the time being.. which is equal to RM18.6

I put back my HRC photo again.. to express my happiness..kikiki..

Congratulation to all of us.. Are we already rich?

Strong buy, look good to break 11 soon..

bcos 3iii not appear today..LOL..

We never say Petronm don't worth RM12, 13 or 16..etc per share... But we say HRC worth much more than 3 billion.

Exactly.. all these info available months ago and Probability pointed it out in I3 forum. That why I am so confident, buy, buy, buy since early this year.

If we value HRC PD facilities eq 3 billion.. Petronm must be very very stupid, might as well offer to buy over HRC at double the price.. LOL.

3iii,
USD1 = Peso50.6 as at today currency exchange..

USD1.5billion = Peso 75 billion = MYR 6.15 Billion

David,
Thank you.. very good article.

Especially for those not too clear how much HRC worth..

3iii,
Typical Chinese believed that if anyone scolded/talk negatively by peoples everyday, his/her well being and wealth will be slowly depleted day by day.. I am not kidding (go and ask someone senior).. As a friend, I advise you to review your strategy. There could be a lot better way if you want to send some messages..

With 1 billion cashflows mean all the long term loan inherited from Shell will be fully paid off...

The gap between Petronm and HRC getting narrow.. RM1.44 compare with earlier RM3.. Will HRC overtaking Petronm next two weeks!!

Probability,
You are right.

I have been keep buying since RM3.50; March 2017. The last transaction is RM10.08.. If I listen to stockmanny, CKCS, 3iii and etc.. I would have sold before RM8.. Now I Kaya-Raya.. I never worry even HRC drop RM1, RM2 or even RM3... kikiki.. I buy not based on speculative. It is purely based on fundamental.. Please study all the technical figures (old and new) and the history..

Remember 31 Dec 2016 audit item, RM460.878 million accumulated impairment losses.. This item could be false. BV need to take this into consideration.

3iii, you are too imaginative and -ve thinking. When you see rope, you say snake!! Sefveral of your facts are not too accurate and mislead ppl..

Also raider, ahseng...

Probability, Alex and Phang,
Look like everyday all of you in HRC forum.. you are so committed, must be invested your entire fortune into HRC..LOL..
If you stay around Klang valley, let have a coffee somewhere some time...

Bought some bjc early last week.. agree bjc is very very much under value.. the only hope is people getting older become more honest..LOL.

jon, noted and thanks..

aseng, ekovest.. one factor is important.. bn menang or pakatan menang? if bn, strong buy..

jon, your method not convicing.. investment in stock dont think based on luck or probability.. LOL..