I think will drop to par value I- business is soooo bad...

Go n eat grass lo...

Or better still at par 1

10.50 no taker better 2.50

We r risk takers , so do not caution us . It has dropped fr 19.20 to 12. Will it drop to 3-5 ? I think too impossible. Thus whatever you rubbish about how HY will gap down r pure noncense. The HY mgt will not buy fr Shell if it will be a losing concerns. This is simple logic , u just can't misled us.

We must be practical coz not Hy alone got gapped down , tgere are many counters too, except Hy more serious after many.called Holland n continuing barking non stop even though they did not hold a single share in Hy. Not anyone can hold Hy here coz at rm 12-13 per share is considered vip share. Affordability is a big concern here.
01/03/2018 11:14

The more they call to sell is the signal to accumulate slowly until the last penny left.. if we play the reverse , we may see light at the end of the tunnel , if we cut win n cut loss m we see nothing at the tunnel. This is called reversed psychology..

Just betting per quarter shall b3 70-80c , shall be reasonable n realistic given the expected resting period , price fluctuates from 60-65 usd, tax 60 + millions + increased expenditure to euro 4.

If limit down, just Q Q to buy lower...with own cash..

Q 12.50 ...hope to get it ...

YoY reduced due to payment of tax 64 m and 34m extra expenditure that made the great difference . Or else the dividend payout may be can increase further. Overall result should be commendable at 303c per share and being the Highest in Bursa , if I am not mistaken . Even the best performer in Bursa cannot match HY in its quest fir better profit . HY before under Shell had suffered heavy losses and thus had to sell to a more competitor for continuation and upgrade .

Is Heng Yuan Q4 17 within expectation?
Author: SmartyAlek | Publish date: Tue, 27 Feb 2018, 11:25 PM

According to the weak form efficient market hypothesis (EMH), current market price of a security incorporates all information contained in the price history and no extra profits can be made after allowing for transaction costs. It concludes technical analysis (TA) cannot yield excess returns. TA is a method of forecasting future stock market prices based solely on historical prices and volumes. TA includes charting (recognizing patterns such as support/resistance, Head and Shoulders, Cup and Handle) and technical indicators (such as MACD crossing, RSI).

The semi-strong form of EMH assumes that current market price adjusts rapidly to the release of all new public information. Therefore, it concludes that fundamental analysis (FA) cannot yield excess returns. FA relates to the analysis of balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement to predict future performance.

The strong-form EMH assumes that current market price fully reflects all public and private information. It concludes that market, non-market and inside information has all been incorporated into the current market price. It assumes perfect market and concludes that it is impossible to earn excess returns by doing any fundamental or technical analysis.

In the context of Bursa, I believe it could be somewhere between weak-form and semi-strong form EMH, or not even weak-form efficient. It is not uncommon to hear that bursa players can make small profits by using technical analysis (can be as simple as momentum contra play- when a share shoots up, you quickly buy and sell off in a short time). There are also many FA gurus charging few thousands for their services and analysis. Dynaquest by Neoh Soon Kean is one of those offering FA services and many investors swear that FA services such as this have good track records of giving good returns.

However I wish to point out that even though Bursa is nowhere near strong-form EMH, we see that many counters would have already stopped uptrend before so-so QR is released, or would have dropped before a bad QR is released. In other words, the current share price of Bursa counters have already incorporated insider information. Well it is not hard for certain fund-managers to pay someone working on the accounts some fees to get first-hand info.

Many had been wondering why Heng Yuan retraced from a high of 19.20 when it was uptrend after such good Q3 17 release. Some blamed the warrant issuers for playing tricks. I think the issuers did push down the price to certain degree. Some blamed that insiders were selling and upcoming Q4 had to be so-so. Now the latter seems to be true.


So if you ask my opinion, what is the right market price for Heng Yuan?

Q4 17 Revenue increased to 3.1b, a record level compared to other Qs in 2017 and 2016. Q4 net profit was reduced 64m due to taxation compared to no taxation in Q3. These two come in within our expectation. Q4 Operating expenses increased 34m from Q3 due to some “regulatory-driven projects”. So I must say the Q4 financials are rather impressive. Comparing EPS alone might give investors the impression that QoQ has decreased when the business is improving.

HY Annual EPS = 61.18 + 120.59 + 28.14 + 93.16 = 303.07
Let's be realistic that HengYuan is a refinery business in a developing country so I will aim for a mere PE 7. Therefore my target price is 7 x RM 3.037 = RM 21.26

Ok some will argue that the 120.59 was due to unplanned outages at Gulf of Mexico and no taxation.

Now I will just assume a simple 60 EPS per quarter, taking a PE 7 our target price is 7 x 4 x 0.60 = RM 16.80. I think this TP of RM16.80 is extremely fair, given there are few factors reducing the EPS this quarter.


What about the RM 0.02 dividend?

This is not very attractive. However, I believe that the management gives quarterly dividend to attract funds to hold HY shares long-term.
Therefore taking 4 x 0.02/16.80, ~0.5% dividend yield. This is a very good start by the Chinamen to show that they can also practise dividend policy to attract big fund players.



What will happen to HY share price ?

As everyone predicted, it will likely gap down at opening. Major reason is that many retail players who don't play like funds will run, laughing at the 2c dividend. Moreover many articles surfaced lately, presenting their longwinded theories on how crack spread will boost earnings to new heights. These articles indirectly created illusions of high EPS expectations for retailers and now they are disappointed. The price drop from RM19.20 told a different story, that is big funds with limited private info were already selling down HY. I say limited because normally insiders won’t be able to leak the exact figure but they know it would be so-so. Therefore I think the current HY market price has already incorporated Q417 results and whoever sold down from 19.20 cou

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/SmartyAlek/148795.jsp

Very good and comprehensive article ....good to read.

Terrible , the stock dropped 68.67% . Will the stock drop the same margin?
28/02/2018 20:17

Company will start buying into treasury..... do not need to worry.

There r some who prayed hard for the stock to fall , u should know who they are by now....there are many out there who hope the stock will spring back to its actual value. They are in different views and I3 unfortunately has turned out to be the platform for them to pit each other.

Those who cut win n cut loss today should regret for their lives ....coz Hy is still in good hands n revenues keep improving from quarter to quarter except the last qtr reduced from the previous qtr . Overall still manage more than RM 3 per share. PE still below 5 . Hy is more competitive than its competitors because the Euro 4 upgrade will be much lower in expenditure but with the same result . The ingenuity n its advanced engineering shall have an edge compared with others. Time will prove whether HY is a success story or another flip flop .

Revenue increased from 2.9b to 3.0 b but net profit reduced . NTA increased from 5.52 to 5.9 . Compared with last Qtr , profit reduced but overall still more than Rm 3 per share n trading a PE below 5. The financial report shall clarify the extra expenditure .....Q buy at 12.50 .....

Discounted to a low of 12.50....from 15+, which translated to RM 2.00 solid discount for Hengyuan, where to get , just buy more to accumulate more , it will be a matter of time that it will trade to its true value . Now it is a momentous time and the company is on the track to recovery after acquired from Shell Refinery. I believe the the present team headed by professionals from China with exceptional expertise will steer the company to greater height. Just give him another 1~2 more years to see the outcomes.

As long as u r buying with your reserves, u r not loss totally . In stock , up n down is too common....

At 12.50 is a big discount for Hy , those who bought 15+, should wait a longer period.

In stock , u r the sifu not others coz u control your fate n luck, no one else.

discounted RM 2.00 why not?

panic sell= panic buy....

Tuesday, 27 Feb 2018

7:01PM HENGYUAN Single-tier interim dividend of RM0.02
6:58PM HENGYUAN Financial year end net profit 909.221 million (increased 171.19%)
oh, ist time dividend after donkey years ....may be a good start to new things..

The selling will stop n later it may recover...fast n swift as well.

sharks r pumping first to a low of 12.50...and start collecting....

panic sell?

good profit ....but ...

27 Feb 2018 6:58PM Financial year end net profit 909.221 million (increased 171.19%)

EG stock price was suppressed for a very long time either good or bad results is still the same . Even bad result out but PE still very low...and nothing to shout about.

Too pricey for padini ....in bull market may b but surely not in bearish market . The indicator not promising.

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 31-Dec-2017[#2] | 26-Feb-2018
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 31-Mar-2018 | 30-May-2018
T4Q P/E | EY: 21.65 | 4.62%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 2.25% | 48.65%
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 0.91 | 5.63
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: 9.66% | 25.99%

With new Acquisition n setting up factory in US , the future growth will be spectacular.

Still undervalued ...

Qtr result out ?

With less disposable incomes experienced because of gst , businesses of padini only good during festivals. With so many outlets operating in expensive areas , the operating. expenditure will be huge . Even with high reserves , the sustainability is a question.its high Pe n v low dividend are a deterrent for long term investors. Presently in bursa ,we have many cos which are low Pe , high returns n potentials for growth to be selected. Why want to choose Padini which is pricey now?

Toyoink is -ve PE n EY . Because of syndicated play thus u see it moved fr 50 c to 113 c. After they liquidated their positions, all will back to its basics . I think with negative PE , it will be really tough to turn around the co . Better cut your position n collect the balance u have than waiting for the doom’s day.

Hengyuan can go for longer term, those played short can lost monies unnecessary because it i not suitable for contra as the stock is well over RM 14-15 . Buy n sell will cause a bomb , thus not advisable . Longer term may see it trade a higher PE compared presently . If 6-7 PE , the stock price may translate into at least a RM 20.00 stock not the present 14-15 only!

price drops buy more...long term another RM 13-15 again , may be another 5 years...

syndicate thought that they can manipulate Scientex to their advantage but they just cannot move the stock well because the holders here are long term , they did not bother to look even price fall by a ringgit ; instead they buy more whenever the syndicate throws until they have no more bullet and left empty handed .

Yes, support kyy n kick out all the useless directors ....

All the hoo haa n bad propagandas will end eventually after the result out , just want to see how they going to react when it gap up non-stop until it eventually settled to its rightful price.

Good , more chances to accumulate more...

The syndicate ask to sell Scientx , I think the effect is negligible but surely will make a dent . Long term still promising...

This time th3 pick up may cross 16...just hold for another 2 days...then the barking dogs will disappear ...

do not worry coz the sudden fall will follow by a sudden pick up again , after all we had straight 15 days green already...

the chart is no good , may back to 30c again...

the gap up were the work of syndicates ....hope all had cleared position when it hit 22c

the syndicate has told his followers to sell all this counter ...beware it may fall to its original price again .