imagine if you want to set up a giant biz like lctitan with strong reputation. how long will it take and how much will cost you?

Lctitan has 5billion net cash based on the latest qtr results. if u just take cash divided by number of shares outstanding the net cash per share is worth RM2.17. compared to the current price RM2.3. that means their biz including those ppe and inventory is worth just RM0.13 per share? that's ridiculous.

based on half yearly results extrapolated to 12 months, the minimum 50% pay out of dividend should be 35 sens which translate to 12% dividend yield for year 2021

Bcoz The management is responsible to maximise the value to shareholders, If the investment does not add value, it shud consider to return to shareholders as the best option.

I think we should write to their management. Ask them about the rational behind the investment in Indonesia becoz the petrochemical business is currently worth nothing as per market. Then ask the management to return the RM2 per share as dividend to all the shareholders.

Lctitan
Analysis based on the 31 March 2021(latest) quarter results

RM Per share
Net assets 12,466,724 5.39
Net current asset 5,988,836 2.59
Difference 6,477,888 2.80

Actual market rate
Market cap Share price
Share price 6,126,800 2.65
Net current asset 5,988,836 2.59
Business value 137,964 0.06

Net cash per share 2.03


since market only value its current business (includes its investment in associates of RM2.2b) at only RM137,964 (RM0.06 per share). The management should consider to scrap off their investment idea in Indonesia and return all the excess cash which is RM2.03 per share as dividend to the shareholders becoz the market did not even give a damn to their business as for the market it is worth nothing.

As at 1/7 LDPE is around usd 1573 while the naptha cost is around 633. the spread is around $940 which is higher as compared to Jan'21 to Mar'21

Management should consider to distribute all their cash to their shareholders since their net cash is currently sitting at RM2 per share.

why macquarie report is garbage, their arguement is valid and reasonable. We look at long term not just short term.

Also u can take an example of the face mask, when the business is so lucrative, everyone venture in. Now look at the price of face mask. Facemask and glove are both PPE. the 1st already show u the results.

So what do u think the fair value then? 10,12,15? Based on what assumption? If you are businessman, would you pay those prices to buy over the company? why not setting up your own new production line compared to buying over the company?

Ok. Be logic just ask urself these few questions

1) Can the current supernormal ASP be sustained in the long run due to this pandemic? If everything back to normal, what will be the ASP in the future? Can the current earning be sustained forever?
2) Now so many local players are venturing into glov becoz of their lucrative profit.(e.g. Karex, AT, Gets, etc) Will the supply and demand gap be filled up more quickly than our initially thought?
3) A business is for a long term basis and not just for 1 or 2 years. Dun you think valuing a company based on its normalised earnings which can sustain in a long run will be more proper compared to just 1 or 2 year supernormal profit?

I think u know the answer

i think 1 have to think beyond current situation.Be logic, It is no doubts that current glove supply market remains tight as orders have been stretched to at least next year. But how about in 2022 and there after when every 1 gets vaccinated? can their ASP remain as high as current and earnings still sustain? that remains a question. Currently many players started to venture in glove making, not only china but local players are ramping up production as well. If their current supernormal profit can still sustain beyond 2022 and grow then the current valuation is justifiable, what if it is an opposite? Would u still pay so high PE of 20 or more to buy a company if their growth cannot sustain? It is similar to a company selling its property to make 1 off supernormal extraordinary gain. Would you take in the gain to calculate the value or exclude it becoz it is 1 off item? Shudn't you also look at the earning for 2022 and 2023 as well when demand supply balance out?

i think 1 have to think beyond current situation.Be logic, It is no doubts that current glove supply market remains tight as orders have been stretched to at least next year. But how about in 2022 and there after when every 1 gets vaccinated? can their ASP remain as high as current and earnings still sustain? that remains a question. Currently many players started to venture in glove making, not only china and local players are ramping up production as well. If their current supernormal profit can still sustain beyond 2022 and grow then the current valuation is justifiable, what if it is an opposite? Would u still pay so high PE of 20 or more to buy a company if their growth cannot sustain? It is similar to a company selling its property to make 1 off supernormal extraordinary gain. Would you take in the gain to calculate the value or exclude it becoz it is 1 off item?

Please add me too

55880955 Their customer won't let them do this illegal way.

Which law states that it is illegal?

it is the 1st time under detain. so is a lesson to them. now they know the minimum compliance of the quality. In future, they will ensure only quality gloves enter US. However. because they are caught the 1st time, the future export will be affected. To ensure future export not affected. they can use other channel under diff name to enter US.

i think the market overreact. Published date was 2 weeks ago and now market only see the news. Maybe the company didnt announce because they foresee no material impact to the company. They still have other subsidiaries under diff name. They can use other channel to import. not necessary only under comfort name.

If u see from the last qtr. The investment in jv is already 0. How can it be another share of loss from jv. I am curious on the accounting entries. They didnt explain on it further. I seems like impairment of long term receivables from jv

I am curious on the accounting. The carrying amount of joint venture is only 55m. How can they up to 154m. Where is the remaining 99m double entries?

wat happened?

Eddy33, where u got the info banker collecting? the banker collected since last week, the wall is huge at 2.5 but it can disappear on the next day and drop until now.

yesterday all glove counter up it down, today down it also down

lousy counter, everyday keep falling with no hope of rebound. holding it is like timebomb

If taann, faces strong competition, I am sure that other log company will also face the same problem. Jtiasa and Wtk both are in Similar industries. How those companies price not drop like taann. In addition. RHB mention Taann log price might face stiff competition, but in actual the log price is still increasing. Wouldn't this be contradict to the reason it mentioned?

I think the writer of this article sold chinwel too early or jealous on those people who are holding chinwel. if not why he is so interested in spending so much time doing so much work on chinwel to post this article. There are so many goods stocks, Why want keep writing on sth bad on dun spend the time on researching on those potential stocks.

Market is always like that, I remembered I did post on Minho on 10 June 2015 regarding Minho, at that time it was only 90 cents plus only, and there is no volume oso. No one cares about my comments. The stock is so cheap that no one wants. when it start to move to RM1.7, everyone starts to be interested in it. The volume is increasing and ppl snatch until RM1.9 in 1 month.

The following is my posting on Minho on June 2015. u can find my comments under Minho stock

limpek: results out limit up till 1.1. now 95 nobody wants. that's ridiculous!
Minho is actually a hidden gem and yet this are very less people realizing.
from the latest qtr report has shown a significant improvement in all their business due to increased order. Currently timber extraction has contributed around half of the earning due strong logging activites in the current quarter which is equivalent to 5 cents. exclude the earning from logging, the other business still contribute a whopping 5 cents earning to the group in the current quarter.

Management has guided that there will be reduced logging activities in second quarter due to stricter control by authority in issuing license. However, for manufacturing and trading segment, the demand is expected to improve. the property sector will see stronger billing coming in in the following quarters. If we take out the earnings from logging activities, the other segment will still show a contribution of at least 5 cents or more in the coming quarter. If we extrapolate the eanings, the PE is actually less than 4.

In addition to the above, the company also has a strong balance sheet with net cash of around 6-7cents.

Compared to other related industry. this counter should be worth more

10/06/2015 16:55

not only baca, I got do thorough analysis also.

In addition. one can note that the margin and cash flow is improving every year. The net margin has improved from prior year 8% to current year 10%. In addition it is generating a free cash flow of 69m compared to its earning RM60m only. The actual cash generated is more than the accounting profit it earn during the year.

Gadang is expected to show an increasing profit next year mainly due to its strong earnings stream from the on-going construction projects and continuous sales activities generated by the flagship projects of the property division.

Current earnings is 27 cents. assuming the forward earning to be 30 cents, to be conservative. Using a simple PE for calculation. the current PE is just only 4. at the price of RM1.2. If you compared with other construction company. ROE is above 15%. with a net cash balance of 40m (equivalent of approximately 19 cents per share) and future earning growth. Gadang current valuation is extremely unreasonable.

if the mobile phone is slow down, the other related counter like mpi n gtronic shud c a sell down too. y they are still so stable. In addition their major customers skyworks and qorvo price is increasing.

results out limit up till 1.1. now 95 nobody wants. that's ridiculous!
Minho is actually a hidden gem and yet this are very less people realizing.
from the latest qtr report has shown a significant improvement in all their business due to increased order. Currently timber extraction has contributed around half of the earning due strong logging activites in the current quarter which is equivalent to 5 cents. exclude the earning from logging, the other business still contribute a whopping 5 cents earning to the group in the current quarter.

Management has guided that there will be reduced logging activities in second quarter due to stricter control by authority in issuing license. However, for manufacturing and trading segment, the demand is expected to improve. the property sector will see stronger billing coming in in the following quarters. If we take out the earnings from logging activities, the other segment will still show a contribution of at least 5 cents or more in the coming quarter. If we extrapolate the eanings, the PE is actually less than 4.

In addition to the above, the company also has a strong balance sheet with net cash of around 6-7cents.

Compared to other related industry. this counter should be worth more

tomorrow panic sell down again?

the share price already dropped from 18 cents high in Sept since the rights announced

However, if DPS shares is RM0.085 or above, u will save even more for every rights subscribe. Lets take a look at the calculation below if the DPS share is at RM0.085.

the rights @RM0.1, 50,000 shares will cost u 5k.
50,000 shares purchased at market price @ RM0.085 will cost you RM4,250.
The difference is RM750, meaning you pay only RM750 for the new additional 30,000 free warrants.
Assume the market price for new warrant to be the same @ RM0.04 only. 30,000 shares will cost RM1,200, meaning you save RM450 for every 50,000 shares subscribed. If the market price of the new warrant is RM0.045, you will save even more.
The current OR is only trading at only Rm0.005, 50,000 rights will only cost RM250.

Remember the market price for warrant will also go up if the mother shares up too. So how much should the OR worth? Currently the market is dumping the OR at only RM0.005 only which seems to be unreasonable. So is it the opportunity? Think twice before you make the decision.

Calculation of the Fair value of the rights

based on the current dps shares at RM0.08. say 50,000 shares will cost u 4k.

if u subscribe the rights @RM0.1, 50,000 shares will cost u 5k. However u will have additional 30,000 free warrant @ an exercise price of RM0.1, meaning u pay RM1k for additional 30,000 free warrant. The warrant has an exercise price of RM0.1.

So what is the FV of the DPS warrant? The current DPS warrant(DPS-WA) with exercise price of RM0.5 is trading at RM0.04 cents already. The new DPS warrant has a 5 times lower exercise price at RM0.1 only, meaning the market price of the warrant should actually be higher than the current price of warrant.

To be conservative, we assume the market price of the new warrant to be at RM0.04(same as the existing warrant). Meaning u only use 1k to buy the new 30,000 warrant, which should cost you at least RM1,200. U saved RM200 for every 50,000 shares subscribed.

gg. market is melting

ksl warrant is cheaper than KSL. 6% discount.. if wan buy buy warrant better

unisem up. but mpi down so much. whats wrong with this counter?

when unisem up 10 sens mpi up only 7 cents. When unisem drop 1 sen, mpi drop 7 cents

when unisem up a lot MPI up a little. when unisem drop some, mpi drop a lot. Really useless.

Hahaha, Jolie has been saying MPI will down to 3.5 since 16 Oct. But then, it did not down and went up str to 5.45 last week. Then Jolie disappear during that period. 1 month ltr, when MPI down from 5.45 to 4.95, she came out saying with all the nonsense again and just simply wrecked a price without any justification.

ppl up it no moves, ppl down it down more.

petdag n petgas are well supported even they are overvalued. However those fundamentally strong counters are facing massive sell down like skpetrol, dayang, deleum etc. That's ridiculous.

I guess only oil n gas counter get affected the most. the rest are having minimal impact.

bcoz IMF downgrade the growth? if this is the case. all stock shud b affected and y only oil n gas counters are facing the most massive sell down? In addition, most of our oil and gas companies are service providers. The volatility of crude oil price shud only hv minimal impact on it.

any one knows y oil n gas company is recently facing a strong sell down?

PE of 15 to 18. dun you think is high? Y most of your comparisons only show loss making companies? wat about those like Masteel, leonfb, etc which are relatively have lower PE and more undervalue than KSSC.

And u are comparing with Pmetal? both are different industry.

The operating cash flow generated is almost 5 times of the earnings mainly due to high depreciation charged. The depreciation already eat up almost RM1 of the EPS of MPI.

Agreed, among the 3 semiconductor company,i.e.Gtronic, unisem and MPI, MPI is the most undervalue, considering its leading position, earning growth, and strong cash flow.