Alas, while immediate quarter results are good, we should still view things in the longer term. Here's to hoping Hevea produces good results both in the near and far term.

Wow, haha. Got in at RM1.29 yesterday and now it's at RM1.33. Not bad. In for the long haul though. Hopefully strong Q1 and Q2 results.

@Yusof, surely Q12017 results will be below Q42016, YoY is more important. Can it beat Q12016? Hopefully yes. Beating Q22016 in the next quarter will be easier still.

Tech companies are very different, I won't get into that. Anyway I am comfortable enough in my knowledge that P/BV should follow ROE (assuming the ROE can be maintained at the higher level).

No worry man, just consolidating and cooling the engines. Will be back roaring in no time.

Ezra, P/BV should follow ROE, not the other way round. So yes Bursa has tons of terrible companies with high P/BVs and low ROEs...your job is to stay away from them. P/E ratio is not related to ROE in the way P/BV is.

I think you're not thinking properly. Companies with high growth rates have high ROEs and correspondingly high P/BVs. This is totally accurate. Look at Nestle, Dutch Lady and F&N. Look at their ROE and P/BV. The relationship is 1:1 when ROE is at 10% leading to P/BV of 1.0X. But it's an exponential relationship. As ROE hits 40% P/BV can be at 8X or more.

Go read up on it. Value investors don't care about P/E ratios. They are meaningless. They care more about ROE along with P/BV.

In Cambodia, China and Vietnam within 1 month...let's hope Tony knows what he's getting himself in to...

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/airasia-set-cambodian-subsidiary-%E2%80%94-report

The engine will hibernate for a while now before going above 3.60

Specter, how do you see 15% upside? It's better to have a range in mind, and take profit once the stock price has outrun the fundamentals. This stock could easily hit RM2.25 by end of next year.

Also, any idea how much more unexercised warrants remain? I have a feeling not much remain, so dilution will be less of a problem going forward.

So says Benjamin Graham, partake not in initial offerings.

Guys, any reason why the P/BV is so low? It's worse than even UMWOG, Armada, MMHE, Alam etc. Surely there's s reason why the P/BV got so depressed.

Hold up man. Parkson is a long way from PN17. And long before it reaches there it has a few billion yuan worth of assets to sell off. Worst to worst Alibaba or someone will take over their China retail operations. Malaysia Parkson is stronger as it has cash of RM300mil

Some qualitative aspects that made me invest in Hevea:

- According to 2016Q4 results, Japanese RTA demand peaked later. This means there should be a spillover of excess demand into 2017Q1 relative to same quarter last year.

- In 2016Q2 one of the particle board production line was offline. This means 2017Q2 has a good chance of beating last year profit and revenue.

- In 2017Q2 a third line with extra 10-15% capacity is due to be added for particleboard. Added with the above points this could mean record revenue for 2017Q2.

- Expansion of RTA is underway. Bought new land. Fruits to be seen next year. Could lead to an expansion in ROE

Those are some additional reasons that mad enough me comfortable in investing in Hevea. I intend to stay for the long term but if the market runs ahead of itself and Hevea reaches RM2.20 by year's end I may take profit.

@Ezra, I find book value to be a good measure. I compare it to ROE. When book value lags ROE I see a potential mispriced security. P/BV for Hevea is 1.54 but the ROE is at ~20%. By right if ROE is sustained at 20%, the P/BV should be at ~2.1X.

So yeah that was the preliminary reason I started looking at Hevea. I bought in with the added Catalyst of near term price reversal given that quarter results are around the corner and I think it should be a good one.

@Farge168, I just came in today. Queued at lunchtime at RM1.30 and got my order filled at RM1.29. I must say that the impending QTR result did play a role in me coming in to Heveaboard, but it's only because I also have found a relative margin of safety for myself. Sure there I see an element of trying to make large gains in the short term, but I'm in for the long term. So far in my life I have bought six companies...I've not sold out yet. I went through Heveas annual reports, quarterly explanatory statements and news clippings. I looked at their financial situation. I feel comfortable. The risk seems to be a strengthening ringgit, but I think so long it stays above RM4 there should be no issue.

Spector, is that under the Kreakids brand or something else?

VG, that's not true at all. Why can't it remain listed in Bursa Malaysia? As it stands AA has got a high % of foreign owners. It is a pride of the country. By listing in HK/SG, us local investors will lose out on investing in it.

Don't forget, he wants to spin off the Malaysian entity in Bursa and list the Asian/ASEAN operations in SG/HK. So we lose the "prestigious" part of AirAsia.

I fully support AirAsia monetizing all of its assets and JVs by conducting IPOs in Philippines and Indonesia, and later on for India, Vietnam and China. But I do not support taking away the group listing from Malaysia. It's our brand. It's our country's success story. We deserve to keep it here.

Sell at RM3.80++ now, this stock is about to go into overbought territory. China will give feel good in the short term but it's a long way to go before it contributes to the bottomline.

Any idea what's AirAsia's stake in the JV?

Also, don't forget guys...AA gets a cut of the profits, and they also get a cut of the licensing fees.

Damn guys, AirAsia is on its way to be a KLCI component stock within 5 years!

Now to hope Tony doesn't screw things up by listing AirAsia in HK or SG. Malaysia is its home country and the overall group should remain listed here.

I am so saddened people put up collateral to effectively gamble on the stock market. Even the biggest pros such as Graham, Buffett and Klarman do not play with margins and collateral. Only invest into the stock market cash that you have/own/possess. So sad to see lives ruined, but they deserve it...nothing else to say. Greed is the downfall of mankind.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bhlKsma1HD8J:www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/1256420/ongc-launches-delayed-deep-water-floater-bid+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-b

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ptaxN_Yra6MJ:www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/1255622/start-up-soon-at-madura+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-b

Similarly, for the third line production facility for the particle board, is there any news on when it is due to be commissioned?

Guys, is there a timeline for the expansion of the RTA HeveaPac manufacturing facilities? I can't seem to find this info any where.

If ROE is sustained at 20%++ won't the P/BV catch up eventually...making this stock undervalued?

cheery, it's just that some institutional investors don't have a mandate to invest in the ace market. So if this goes on main board it will be more attractive to local/foreign institutional investors. also it's like graduation man!

Ok, I understand. I am NOT talking about C/H warrants. I am talking about W warrants, like WA, WB, WC etc. So AAX-WA is an example.

Use this as an example only: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5385349

How much would the company receive in the above case? Do they even get to raise any proceeds in the first place? Thanks!

Guys, I have a simple/important question. When you exercise a warrant, does the company get any money? How much of money do they get? Can you give me an example? Thanks!

Hold steady boys!

With Kraken around the corner, I will top up if this goes to 70... :)

PNB is selling spree, better wait. Also, PNB will keep selling, look at Bursa announcement. For 2 years. They keep downwards pressure on price. Wait till 0.8X BV then come in.

What means c38 friends?

I won't keep much faith in this. Could just be RHB play play since they have such a huge concentration on this company.

As Graham cautioned us long ago, steer clear of IPOs.

Joeytay, I do not disagree with you at all. Parkson China was trading at HKD10++ just a few years ago. Such valuations are out of the question. The glory days are beyond us. But Parkson can still rebound and trade at HKD 2.5-HKD3.50, they just need to get things in order. Their stores may be half as packed as 5 years ago, but they will still continue to exist once they get their current costing under control.

Hopefully it can retrace to RM1.52... :)

Attractive, need it to get to 0.8X P/BV beforehand I come in first.

Joetay, Malaysia is actually the only operation they are making positive returns. China is not sunset, i believe they had 4 years to react and we should be seeing changes soon. They own some very, very expensive assets. They have a few impressive malls. They have grocery stores. I mean the departmental store part is in terminal decline in China, but those guys have diversified a lot in the past 4 years. Here's to hoping change comes soon. I will hold for another two quarters at least after the coming results, with a sharp eye on PRGL balance sheet.

PRA is a gone case cause Parkson didn't innovate and change. It's different from PRGL. They don't have online shopping or mobile app. Pretty shitty I tell you. But PRA also has some good assets.

All in all, there is decent margin of safety here. But we could be stuck at 60-65 sens for quite some time, unless there is a meaningful turnaround in sight in China at least.

Guys, set your exits now. Set it in a calm and reasonable manner. Set it at something you will be happy to walk away from. Could be RM3.40, RM3.20, RM3.00 etc. Revise your exits upwards for ever 10/20 sen increments. Don't go with emotions. Don't sell in a haste, for there can always be minor pullbacks. Don't be too attached to AA. You can and will always be able to buy it again at a lower valuation in the not too distant future.

Damn, it's getting hot in here! I've already set RM3.40 as my exit on the downside, but I'm hopeful of making my way to RM3.80 (or even higher). From now on, each 10 sen rise, I raise my exit on the downside by 5 sen. I think this is the best way to play the game and not end up losing.

Kelvin NTA commensurates to ROE lah. You like to talk so much BS. Don't even know basics?

Look at ROE for DRB...not even above 10% once in the past years. It deserves to trade below NTA, not forgetting it also has a holding company discount of 40%. Pos Malaysia has better ROE, and can deserve to trade above NTA though it does seem overvalued to me based on past results (people seem to think ecommerce will change things, who knows).

Don't think Gadang is overvalued. It's P/BV ratio is lagging ROE actually, so room to run there.

If you read analyst reports from DBS/UBS/CreditSuisse you can clearly see that they have USD/MYR pegged at average of RM4.65 for the year. We're now at RM4.35. It can easily be roughly average of RM4.40 for the year. So you see, gains over there already.

Either way, the only analyst report that sticks out is PublicInvest. I don't understand their logic...they have declining profits for the group all the way till 2019. Quite mad.

Magic number is 5% ROE for Q1. We hit that, and the rally continues. If it is below 4%, expect a sell-off to about RM3.00.

cruger sir, NCI for TAA is indeed the 45% attributed to AirAsia.

Guys all I can say is, don't get trapped by this and sell tomorrow. A small pullback might occur but the big boys will be back stronger than ever!

I'm almost certain the NP to SH will be around 350-400k. And I believe the market I say pricing in as much. Don't forget MYR/THB was at 8.7 last year and 7.7 this year. So some cushion there.

Do your calculation. Read analyst reports. Q1 2017 was always gong to fall far short from Q1 2016. All you want to see is the ROE relative to the P/BV, that's how the big boys from the institutions decide to sell or buy or hold.

I also won't be worried really. 2016 Q1 was unimaginably good. Profit margin of 50%, ROE of 17.5%. It's simply unsustainable. Profit margins of 20% with ROE of 5% would be easily acceptable by the market, cause that's what is being priced in. P/BV is just at only 1.44X. If you think an annual ROE of 20% i sustainable then AirAsia is far from being overvalued. Heck it is undervalued. The market has already priced in lower Q1 results heavily. A selloff would only ensue if the ROE drops below 5%.

Isn't AAV the same as TAA? I know it owns 55% of TAA, but it doesn't have any other companies. So why TAA profit margin =/= AAV profit margin?

I think it's not to worry much as it is Thai-specific. This is the reason for the sharp drop in profits:

"Rising world oil prices and the Jan 25 rise in the country's excise tax on jet fuel from 20 satang a litre to 4.89 baht have dampened first-quarter profitability both for AAV and TAA."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1246738/asia-aviation-hit-by-q1-turbulence