Fahmi only will appear during drop period. When it went up Fahmi will be totally MIA.

I am looking at around 1.8 by end of the year. However, I might be wrong. I think Fahmi is looking at 0.05 near term since he always ask ppl to sell.

Here are some sensitivity analysis,

2016 Q1 EPS 5.36
2016 Q2 EPS 3.36
2016 Q3 EPS 4.00
2016 Q4 EPS 4.00

Total EPS = 16.72, If PE 8x = 1.33, If PE 10x = 1.672, If PE 13x = 2.17

Don't forget that their order book for 2016 are FULL, so Q3 and Q4 should have higher EPS as there will be 7 production line. The fair PE for should be 13x as this was the average pass 5 years PE.

I am having full faith on Ah Seng.

ya, just close eye and buy whenever it below 1.2, visit 6 month later you will be surprise. This counter had strong revenue and earning. Management are aware of debt issue and are doing their repayment as I seen last quarter.

1) Contra kaki flush out
2) Panic selling
3) Expecting lower QR in Q2
However, I prepare to acquire more if drop below 1.15. If you are not for long then I think it will be good for you to sell now. To me currently is totally undervalue.

Fahmi you are so hilarious, why don't u say RM1 coming soon.

I wonder how long market afford to ignore Ah Seng. Their earning is solid. If JNG Projection is correct then currently Ah Seng is dirt cheap.

Long term investor will say CIMB is speculating, they are only allowed to comment on Karex if they have result in front of them. If not you need to question the motive of CIMB analyst. They try to cheat you sell so they can buy more. Hahaha...Last but not least, they will tell you this counter is for long term.

shit, fahmi is here means no good news. The guy won't appear during good time.

Just one direction for this counter....south

wow, if below RM1 then all in

A great chance to accumulated more if go below RM1.15

yup, the price had been stable and based had formed. Another phase of collection might begin. Market couldn't afford to ignore Ah Seng for long time and soon he will fly again.

Well said JNG Ah Seng already prove his earning ability. Will probably buy more if the price is attractive again.

A lot of punter/trader must be trap.

Ha ha, Fahmi kena trapped. I will buy more if fall to 8x multiple

Niw already 10x PE, they might push to 8x or 9x

Thanks for the note. Seems like I am right about declining in upcoming quarter. For those who cant wut, better sell.

Should be stable at 1.25 if below that just buy

Update on AGM please

dun simply olease, the EPS already exclude non controlling interest. 1.57mil divide by number of share outstanding.

Actually I dont understand why u keep coming here if you are not interested?

I just predict the worst that might happen.I am the most pessimist investor and I always believe on taking care the downside and the upside will take care itself. Yeah, 15% decline are highly unlikely to happen but there are still a probability that we couldnt rule out.

I agree with 77huat77. My exit point will be RM2.

Current quarter EPS is 5.36sen, and decline 15% every quarter, and I use a lower 12xmultiple then the calculation are:

2016 Q1 EPS 5.36 sen
2016 Q2 EPS 4.55 sen
2016 Q3 EPS 3.87 sen
2016 Q4 EPS 3.29 sen

Total EPS= 17.07 sen

PE = 12x, 2.04 per share. 55% upside.
PE = 15x, 2.56 per share. 92% upside.

Conclusion,

If market are really bearish towards TekSeng and their EPS are declining 15% every quarter. By a lower 10x PER, we still get 1.70 per share of fair value.

I am a super conservative and pessimistic. Thats why I think my valuation should be the worst case scenario.

My calculation are based on previous 3 quarter plus current quarter with 12x PE which is super conservative count.

wow, JNG you are my idol. Hope to meet you in person and learn more about Ah Seng. I believe market would be pricing Ah Seng fairly, even the worst 12x PE I give to Ah Seng it should worth 1.54.

I still believe the reasonable P/E should be 15x, so current fair value should be 1.93

I am enjoying their story. You gua should let them know later.

Any update on AGM so far?

dead fish. Seems like wanna break 2

I think JNG and Chickmonk are still cool. We are in for long term. If drop 10sen today I will acquire more.

Appreciate if could report on AGM. What are being discussed?

hi buckbunny, your inari bleeding 3 sen my Hevea up 4 sen. Who is better now?

nothing good will happen whenever Fahmi around. Please go away. BTW, anyone here going to AGM please report.

5:35 still no result. Either very good or very bad.

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=191178&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS
Result out

whenever fahmi is here Ah Seng will be either down or flat. Really dun understand why

I will not even be here if someone does not start finger pointing process. Maybe he loss till cannot tahan d, so blame me for asking people to sell.

talk to Johnny, I am here because I had been finger pointing. He is the loyal supporter, seems like don't understand the concept of never fall in love with a company.

Around 30% upside. pretty safe currently.

I still hope if anyone are going to the EGM tomorrow please ask the question about their debt and also control over TS Solartech. I really need the answer for better valuation.

Ya, to understand ah seng business model is difficult. I spend most of my last weekend reading on industrial report. The cost of crystalline, difference between mono and poly crystalline, sun conversion efficiency and I am still a bit blur.

Johnny Kong, today's RHB research downgraded TAANN to Sell. In the report, it says it expects plywood price and log to fall. Besides, TAANN also faces competition from Solomon Islands which sells cheaper logs to its main importer, India. However, until May, Lumber and Africa/ Southeast Asia Plywood price is still increasing, plus TAANN is producing quality logs which aim for higher price. Today might be EPF selling + people dispose due to downgrade by RHB + panic selling. Tomorrow is AGM, hope got good news which support the price. Just my 2 cents.

Please go and ask the RHB analyst wats yr motive to speculate in TAANN? To help others? If u hv d published QR in front of u now, then u can express whatever free speech u want bcoz tht is not speculating. Obviously, I will not follow u blindly coz yr credentials r not anywhere near close to b recognized by others.

Before we publish article we already mentioned a lot of times we based on our best knowledge and doing guess work. Do I ask you to follow me?I just express my opinion. If you don't like you can write an article to ask people buy. But don't finger pointing here. There are no absolute valuation here. So, if I sell means I think overvalue and if other guys buy from me he or she might think is undervalue. Market is a zero sum game.

I think we could all agree if nothing big going wrong the valuation of Tek Seng should be around 1.8 to 2.2?

so now no free speech? When I think is overvalue I cannot ask people to sell? Analyst can say buy, hold or sell but I cannot? I just express my opinion and said that you should sell but I didnt ask you to follow me blindly. Maybe next time we should all suggest analyst to said for long term investment u need to hold on to every stock you own. Because eventually everything will go up in long term.

wa, their analyst earn so much every month but give so lousy pick. I think a lot of us here can do a better job.

Maybe someone would argue that there is no catalyst for OKA to increase. To me I think under current market condition no catalyst is the best catalyst, it will not subject to higher risk and with strong track of growth and revenue. It should have a higher valuation. Just wait patiently.

wow, JNG you are more optimistic than me but you assigned a more conservative PE. If we look back at PE ratio for Ah Seng, you will notice that the average PE was around 15x in last 5 years. If your estimation of EPS is correct then the 21.0sen translate with 15x PE should worth around 3.15.

Everybody huat

I am more conservative than JNG9678, so I will take a discount of 15% on his EPS. My quick calculation view as below

Scenario 1:

2016 Q1 EPS 4.42 sen
2015 Q4 EPS 4.02 sen
2015 Q3 EPS 2.01 sen
2015 Q2 EPS 1.50 sen

Total EPS = 11.95sen

If we put a 15x PER then should be value at 1.79 per share.
Current Price 1.39, 28% upside.

If we maintain current 19X PER then it should be value at 2.27 per share, 64% upside.

Scenario 2:
If current quarter EPS is 4.42sen, and decline 15% every quarter, and I use a lower 12xmultiple then the calculation are:

2016 Q1 EPS 4.42 sen
2016 Q2 EPS 3.76 sen
2016 Q3 EPS 3.19 sen
2016 Q4 EPS 2.71 sen

Total EPS= 14.08sen

PE = 12x, 1,68 per share. 22% upside.

Conclusion,

If market are really bearish towards TekSeng and their EPS are declining 15% every quarter. By a lower 10x PER, we still get 1.40 per share of fair value.

Limited downside with unlimited upside.

What if I tell you even under my most conservative DCF analysis also show Hevea at least worth 1.73