Excise ratio of C84 is higher than C81. So C81 is more sensitive to price change in mother share than C84.

ie 50sen movement in mother share
will cause 6 tick in C81 but only 4 tick in C84.

The extra 2 tick means you have some additional room to enter and exit the trade, leaving 4 tick for profit. C84, with only 4 ticks does not have as much room to move and make suboptimum decisions. About 2 tick of profit..with my average. So higher risk and lower profits for C84


Posted by chang0509 > Jul 23, 2020 6:36 PM | Report Abuse
Anyone can comment why Topglov C-84 no rise, but C-81 rise a lot? Both issue by cimb, c-84 gearing is higher, premium lower, expiry date is longer. Weird

Pharmaniaga LifeScience’s small volume injectables (SVI) facility in Puchong, has a production capacity of 40 million units a year. All candidate vaccine have 2 dose. So 40 million units, is enough for 20 million Malaysians. There are 32 million Malaysians.

Phamaniaga fill-n-finish is insufficient for Malaysia's needs much less export to rest of SEA.

In anycase, who has Pharmaniaga signed contract with?

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/projects/pharmaniaga-small-volume-injectables-svi-facility/

Hell no. Median salary in the US is only 36K (half the population makes more than this and half makes less than this). A few billionaires push the average salary to 55K.

78% of Americans live pay cheque to pay cheque. 60% of American do not have USD 600 in their savings account. A USD 1000 vaccine is unaffordable to most of the US population unless the US government subsidizes it.

Posted by speakup > Jul 23, 2020 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

USA think in US$
we think in RM$
in USA, US$1000 is cheap for vaccine

Another attempt at sumitting mount 25. This time we are at ~25.5, midway to 26. If we can end the day on the mount 25, we are good.

TG needs just a bit of rest. Still one and half weeks to climb mount 25 and stay there.

yeah Sinovac has announced that it will start phase III trials in brazil. Trials will be completed September 1 2021... (So selll sell, vaccini is almost here... like 1 year 3 months... we all don't need PPE anymore.)

Also estimated production capacity of Sinovac vaccine is 250-300 million doses a year. So you are sure to get one quickly because China has only 1400 million people and global population is 7500 million people and 130 million babies are born every year..

Production is limited as Sinovac vaccine requires the virus to be grown in animal cell (which requires FBS, fetal bovine serum.. yes it is what you think it is. Production capacity will be limited by the number of pregnant cows that can be slaughtered.)

But does China want to work with Trump to develop a vaccine against KungFlu, aka The Wuhan, aka China Virus. And didn't Trump say China was stealing US vaccine data? If China is stealing, surely the US has the orginal data

Sound like nobody in Europe wants to work with Trump.

Somehow, and if vaccine has any side effects, blame is on China.

Posted by yttihs > Jul 22, 2020 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
Today Trump just announced he willing work with China on vaccine. If Moderna is really so good, need to cooperate with China meh?

You can go to https://clinicaltrials.gov/ and check the completion date of vaccine trial. Earliest phase II/III trial completion is in August 2021. Moderna completes its trial in October 2022. Between now and August 2021 is 1 year.

Also takes time to make vaccine. Time to distribute it. 2009 pandemic, Vaccine was approved by September 2009. But nations started their mass vaccination programs as late as April 2010. Virus defeated only in August 2010, 11 months after vaccine was made.

Also, you think doctors want to touch you when giving you vaccine? S/he doesn't want to catch Covid19 from you. And you want doctor to change glove between patients because you don't want risk of catching Covid19 from used glove.

Posted by D4rkloder95 > Jul 22, 2020 10:59 AM | Report Abuse
The vaccine is coming soon, u think they still want to buy expensive glove? Maybe cancel order ?

Under Trump the US administration is that stupid. A quarter of US states have less than 30 days worth of PPE. This was stated to US congress on July 7

Posted by vincent417 > Jul 22, 2020 10:17 AM | Report Abuse

US dare to ban the largest supply of glove in this moment, means they not worry for supply now. They will not act so stupid to hit their foot by stone. People may hope such ban could be lifted within 2 weeks times, but actually is difficult, similar to the case of palm oil in Europe. Although our government had raided and found no evidence of forced labour, but people consider or not, is different case, especially they are US. The only way to do is through hiring US consultants and auditors to conduct survey and provide evidence that accepted by US, but this is time consuming since the size of topglove is not small.

Topglove is worth 26% of however much a box of gloves is worth to doctors and nurses that have to treat and care for their Covid19 patients.

Somewhere in that equation is how many patients do I have to see today.

Posted by EmperorFund > Jul 22, 2020 8:32 AM | Report Abuse

Top Glove is worth RM 110.00

Not quite right. By 2009, we have over half a century of experience making vaccines for influenza virus. It is an efficient process that we have the industrial capacity for. All we needed to do was update 2008 influenza vaccine to compensate for the mutations in the 2009 H1N1 virus. We were certain that the updated vaccine would work and its side effects.

Not the same with Covid19. No template. No experience. May not have the the right infrastructure for mass production. Don't know if the new vaccine works. Only now have a clue of side effects.

Finally while vaccine was approved by Sep2009, people in the US were only vaccinated by Dec2009 Other countries begin the mass vaccination programs at different dates. Philippines begin their in April 2010. The 2009 H1N1 virus was eradicated by August 2010.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic_timeline_summary

Posted by Iewis888 > Jul 22, 2020 6:45 AM | Report Abuse
Timeline of H1N1 2009 from CDC is very good reference. Even FDA approved 4 vaccine since early of Sep 2009, it need time to execute.

Institutional investors probably doing re-calculation work to determine how the Topglove will react to share bonus, impact on china flooding, impact of Covid in Malaysia, US, India and Europe.

Posted by CoronaComment > Jul 21, 2020 11:33 AM | Report Abuse
What happened to gloves today? Very sluggish

Why sell? China is flooding. Their ability to produce PPE is affected and China makes 10% of global glove production. Malaysia makes 70% and Thailand 18%.

China is in no position to expend their glove production capacity. They may actually lose capacity as their supply chain is disrupted.

Yes, US is having huge COvid19 cases, number which we can not no longer trust as Trump has redirected all hospital data from the CDC to the white house, so all release of Covid19 numbers is now under white house control... and I have noticed that the last 3 days days the Covid19 cases has fallen by 10,000.. very unnatural. Not even a slope down, just a fall.

Aside from the US, pay attention to India. Their cases continue to accelerate.

OTC. Over the counter market.
https://www.investing.com/equities/top-glove-adr

Posted by fattycat > Jul 21, 2020 10:13 AM | Report Abuse
Topglove listed in USA ???

It is the results, has a few problems
1 - Lots of Side effects. People given this vaccine reported a lot of moderate and a few severe side effects, a point made worse as they are young healthy adults. Paracetamol was tried to see if it helps.. it does, but still rough.

2 - Immune response. Pay attention to the axis on Figure 3, this axis is logarithmic. So its goes 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10,000. This figure shows that immune reaction from single dose of vaccine, is 100x lower than people who have severe covid19. The immune response from double dose is 10x lower than people who have severe Covid19 and maybe fading 28 days after second dose.

One dose of this vaccine would probably does not work. Two doses may work.. We don't know. 10x lower, maybe enough, maybe not. I have my own opinion. This is not a victory result. It is at best, a maybe.

Need Phase II trial rests to find out if this vaccines works. Oxford/AstraZenacca Phase II/III trials will be completed on 1 August 2021.


Paper here
https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316044.pdf

Posted by lanikai > Jul 21, 2020 1:01 AM | Report Abuse
AZN (vaccine company) stock price drops today haha. Why? I thought they got a positive vaccine data? Or is the data is not convincing enough haha?. TOPGLOV to the moon

Hehe... maybe not. If shareholder meeting was super fast, then it will be RM10 as our new goal.

Posted by Dave Jet > Jul 20, 2020 2:07 PM | Report Abuse
Hit RM 30 in this week.

It means for every 1 share you have, you will be give 2 shares.
The effect is that

Originally
I have 1 share : RM24 each. Total value 1 x RM24 = RM24
Dividend per share : 90sen. So dividend I get is 1 * 90sen = 90sen

New situation
I now have (1 + 2 extra) = 3 shares : RM 8 each. Total value 3 x RM8 = RM24. Shares increase and their value decrease proportionately.

Dividend per share : 90sen/3 = 30sen. So dividend I get is 3*30sen = 90sen

So nothing changes. What changes is that Topglove shares are now cheaper and more accessible to buy, although they now command less dividend. More Malaysians can buy Topglove share because upfront cost is lower. Shares become more liquid.


Posted by Kuli99 > Jul 20, 2020 1:30 PM | Report Abuse
What does 2 for 1 means

@DatukSeriLee
My apologies. You were right. The meeting date to obtain share holder approval has yet to be announced.

Bonus issue requires share holder approval. No share holder meeting has been called or notified. So I don't think there is a bonus shares. Not yet anyway.

Record China flooding impacts PPE supply chain to US

Too bad malaysia doesn't make many mask. Anyway...could the 10% global glove production that belongs to China, now open to Malaysia? Our share could increases temporarily from 70% to 80%.. hmm?

https://www.ehstoday.com/ppe/article/21127107/glove-manufacturers-conserve-ppe-during-widespread-shortage

https://www.9news.com.au/world/dam-blasted-to-release-surging-water-as-deadly-flooding-across-china-continues/1b8bf101-2b5d-4c70-bdc3-70b3de80ff4a

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/19/weather/china-flood-ppe-supply-chain/index.html

A bit of old news (3 days old)
Georgia Governor bans city from mandating that people wear mask.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-bans-city-face-mask-orders-coronavirus-pandemic/

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/07/georgias-republican-governor-orders-cities-to-stop-requiring-masks/

November 2019 news. Old news.
The bad times when Topglove found out that it had overpaid for Aspion (The US medical glove manufacturer had cooked its books) and would need 2 years to fix the financial lost. Well by 2020, what was a bad deal is not so bad anymore. Financial hole fixed and Aspion becomes the channels that allows Topglove to continue exports to the US.

Also have you tried getting a job in Malaysia recently? Nearly all businesses use recruitment agencies now. And some of those agencies are a predatory, I have had them asked me for my passport and uni cert for 'holding purposes' and I am a Malaysian trying to get a job in Malaysia. So I told them "No, this is illegal. We are done here". Only then did they change their tone.

There is a problem but it isn't all on Topglove, employer, some of the problem is on the recruitment agencies. They increasingly feel less and less regulated. Foreign worker will not know how it is done here and fill fall prey these agencies..

Posted by secretinvestor8888 > Jul 19, 2020 5:36 PM | Report Abuse
Top Glove at risk of being removed from KLCI :(
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-glove-risk-being-removed-klci-%E2%80%94-alliancedbs

I would be a little more cautious. The market is not exactly rational.

We saw a sell off from RM25.16 to RM20.50 just because Moderna said it would begin Phase II/III trials... that would be completed in October 2022, not only 2 years in future but also don't know if it would work.

How many people lost money last weak selling at 20.50, 19.70 and 19.60. All for a Friday to Friday change of RM21.92 to RM22.98. Up RM1.06

Fundamentals are solid, impossible to deny as we can see it on TV and backed by biology, medical practice and human physics (everyone wants vaccine now, but just asking for it now doesn't allow Scientist to work more than 24 hours in a day or for cells to grow faster). But market sentiment is like a panicked goat and about as intelligent as one.

So don't put too much money into TG. In the long term, it will go up. But short term anything can happen. Maybe next month, we get rumor that a magic stone can cure Covid19 and for some stupid reason everyone believes it, panics and share price falls from -30%.

Can you stay rational enough to say "This is stupid." and hold. It is harder to be rational if you put everything in. The last panic attacked lasted 3 trading days. The attack before that lasted 11 trading days. Each time saw a peak to trough of -28%



Posted by joyvest > Jul 19, 2020 8:19 AM | Report Abuse
If what future said its true for order to be queued till 2012,then the growth is constant for at least 8 qtrs. mortgage yourself, your dog,cat whatever to buy willthout hesitation

Given that most PhaseII/III trials only complete at end of 2021, and assuming one of the vaccines worked, it will take more time to make the vaccine, ramp up production and finally have doctors inject the vaccine into people. And after all that hospitals, research institutes and national strategic reserves have to be restocked. So yeah 2022, will be good year too. So good chance people will be buying a lot of gloves in 2022.

Posted by FutureGains > Jul 19, 2020 12:25 AM | Report Abuse
According to Management. Order is Q until Dec2021. Will customer order 2022 stock?

With a 50:1 conversion ratio, not a chance. c82 @80sen mean TG is 18.8+ 50(0.8)= RM58.80

Posted by jungleboy > Jul 17, 2020 11:32 PM | Report Abuse
c82 will up to 80sen when TG is rm30?

Call warrant. C82
https://www.malaysiawarrants.com.my/tools/warrantsearch

Delta 84.7% / Conversion ratio 50:1. So relatively insensitive to price movement of mother share. Mother share has to move 30sen to make one 0.05 tick on C82

Excise level is 18.8. / 50:1 Conversion / Current price 0.315
So if you bought this warrant at 0.315 and held it to expiration, you only break even if mother share reaches 34.55.

Given mother share is $23, this call warrant has value of (23-18.8)/50 = 0.084 sen.

Warrant price is 0.315, very cheap.

Expire date: 26 Feb 2021. Topglove QR is mid march.

Trade volume is relatively high. So currently easy to buy and disposed.

Summary:
This warrant will only work if there are large movements on topglove mother share exceeding 30 sen. Every 0.005sen means 30sen on mother share. So putting in a buy order at ASK Price is not advisable. And neither is selling on BID price. Mean if you want to get in by meeting seller price and get out by meeting buyer price, mother share has to increase by over 90 sen to have any profit.

So this requires more of a swing strategy than day trader strategy, and wait for Topglove mother share to build a big increase from where you got to where you can leave. However waiting has danger, if mother share appears to be unable to reach 35 by Feb2021, people may abandon this warrant, making it impossible to get out.

Most estimated TP for Topglove mother share is low RM30, Only one Research group has TP over 35. So it is a risk that you are trapped in Warrant that leaves you without profit.

I don't trade warrants. But if I did I don't like C82. Conversion ratio is too high and delta too low. Better to go to C81 or just wait for something better. Or maybe someone more expert can make C82 work.

posted by Edison Gan > Jul 17, 2020 10:06 PM | Report Abuse
Are you guys recommend C82?

And to all people who have just joining as TG investors, understand that this is the 3rd time TG has had a massive shock that caused TG prices to fall.

First time, Jun 3, banks changed margin rules. TG prices fall from 14.76 to 10.58 in one day.

Second time, Jun 11, continuous bond conversion, share price opens at 17.2, jumps to 18 due to fantastic profit news, then over 2 depressed weeks falls to a low of 14.02, before stabilizing at around 15.6

Third time, July 14, starts at 22.50, climbs to 25.16 and falls to a low of 19.60, before recovering to 22.98 at the end of the week. Due to misleading news on Mordena vaccine and sudden US custom ban.

It is unknown if more of such price action will occur as the year progresses and TG share price climbs to ever increasing heights limited only the explosive growth rate of the Covid19 pandemic and the inability of president Trump to govern.

As an investor, please take the time to understand why TG and other Malaysian companies are in such a solid position. Prove it to yourself, how strong or week TG position is. You do not want to be scared off your position and sell for a lost. Don't just buy because prices goes up for days. Price can also come down and very hard.

@noobie33
Also remind your cousin, Warrant has an expiry date. About 3 month before expiration, warrant start to go stale and become harder to sell.

Mother share has no expiration date. Can always hope that the company will improve to match the price the share was purchased at.

And that is a wrap. Topglove closes at RM22.98, Friday. A daily rise of RM3.28! And as last Friday closed at RM21.92, a weekly rise of RM1.08

So despite the extreme volatility and massive heart stopping waves, we are still up.

Maybe we can see the hill of RM25 again by the end of the month.

That is the danger of Trump. An intelligent man, you can predict his actions. A fool, you have not the slightest clue what he would do.

Now that we are done panicking over fake White House vaccines, pump up news to rise Moderna shares, and a custom ban that the Americans really can afford to hold for a problem that TG has almost resolved, we go to climbing. We are not far from where we started on Monday morning 9am, July 13 @22.50.

Hopefully next week will be less volatile. Or maybe we will have a Kaiju attack.

That is a good article, I hope more people read it. Phase I trials just tells if the vaccine is safe or not to take. Not that it works. Water would pass a PhaseI trial. And vaccine efficacy can fail in months, it is not automatically certain that immunity is long lasting or that it is granted to the everyone vaccinated. Even the vaccines that we use are not 100% efficient. For example the measles vaccine, a single dose is only 95% efficient, that is why we take a double dose to get 98%....better but 2% of people who take the vaccine are not immune. That 2% are kept safe by herd immunity.

Tyson meat processing plants, USA ... google it as example of human rights and worker abuse. Also google the $1 per hour pay rise to work during a covid19 pandemic (danger pay).. great ! but was taken away the moment Trump made meat processing an essential business.

Today's problem solve today. 2022 problem leave to 2022. Takes time to set up new factory. There is cost to buy machine, so first few runs of gloves no profit, just pay back cost. So people who just started glove making are not profitable for first few years.

70% of all gloves in the world are made in Malaysia and about 56% of all gloves made in world are made by the Big 4. Topglove, Hartalega, Supermax and Kossan. You own all 4, you own slightly more than half of all glove producing companies in the world.

And Big4 will have economic of scale can afford to sell gloves cheaper. Make a lot of money and buy out new comers for cheap.

Posted by masterus > Jul 17, 2020 10:12 AM | Report Abuse
Too many people produce gloves. Supply more than demand. Price of the glove will downwarding soon. Profits also will slump soon. Same as the share price of the producers.

Normally, unless someone already knew before hand that Topglove share woould fall, like the person who had already issued the ban order.

bux0880 so -HA put warrant will go up lo if mother share go down? but that day mother up, -HA put warrant also up?

Guy, remember the glove bubble is filled by Covid19. The bubble only burst when Covid19 says it is burst. Like lock down, only ends when Covid19 says it ends. US tried to tell Covid19 otherwise, and 3 week later US states are now closing down again. First rule in a pandemic, don't F with a virus.

You know if TG management was heartless, what they can do is demand payment for all gloves sold to US customers and simply leave the shipment in Canada or Mexico. If customer is unwilling pay, TG will cancel the order and fulfill its 400 day backlog instead. Then when this ban is lifted, all new US orders will be at the back of a 400 day backlog. However as the US state have a PPE/glove shortage and only a 2-4 week supply remaining, US customers will not be able to wait 400 days and will be force to pay top dollar to have their orders expedited and flown across the pacific.

Meanwhile in reality, TG has issued a statement and expect this issue to be resolved within 2weeks... About the time when US states start to run out of PPE. In the game of Poker TG is calling the US bluff.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3068983

The fundamentals of TG has not changed. Demand for gloves is high and demand exceed production capacity. If US won't buy directly from TG, they will have to buy it through a third party, who will have to buy from TG at a premium because those are new orders that would normally be behind a 400 day backlog.

I have a feeling this move by is politically motivated. Jared kushner was tasked by his father in-law, President Trump to buy PPE for the US government. He had been hording this supply rather than distributing to US state in need as he should do. Maybe this is an engineered supply shortage like what Enron used to do in California to make money. There already is a shortage of PPE in the US, with TG now banned, the supply shortage is even worse as State Governors are cut off from the main manufacturer of gloves. Their need is immediate (only 2-4 week supply remaining) and Jared has stock which he can sell for a price or/and a favor owed to Trump.

Assuming Supermax has 1.6 billion gloves per month to sell. That is how many gloves Topglove sells to the US per month. US has 2-4 weeks supply right now, it is suffering a PPE shortage, due to Covid19 pandemic.

Posted by Mtrade > Jul 16, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse
US will buy gloves from SUpermaxxxxx now

The US government is insane. They already have a shortage of gloves, only 2 week to 1 month supply remaining.

Topgloves produces as much gloves as the rest of the other malaysian glove companies combine. 24% of Topglove 78.7bn gloves it produces goes to America, that means 1.6bn gloves a month. Where are the Americans going to get that extra 1.6bn gloves a month? Everyone's production is at capacity with long queues. The US is also in a trade war with China. Are the American going to force the other Malaysian glove to sell to them, and so breaking contract with other customers? Other nations will not be happy if this happens.

Don't panic.

Ebola has a vaccine. Took 40 years of research and 6 years to make.
Bubonic plague can be treated by antibiotics. Took a few centuries but got a cure now.
Spanish flu also has vaccine. Took 15 years to make.
HIV.. can't cure it easily (2 people cured)... but can manage it with drugs. Situation much better than 19080s and early 1990s where it was a death sentence.

Science can do it, it just takes time. Covid19's problem is that the virus was only discovered in January 2020. Has been only 7 months only. We will have a vaccine for Covid19. It won't be this year. It probably won't be next year. But after 2022, we might have something.

As they say, we will vaccine in time... for the next outbreak.

Posted by Hotstuff > Jul 16, 2020 9:31 AM | Report Abuse

The Covid 19 EMPENDEMIC is the mother of all Viruses that have existed since human existence, it is the combination of Spanish flu, Bubonic plague, Spanish fever, Ebola, Hong Kong birds flu, Sars and others, that is why the health scientists could not find a cure this Corona combination, you can't stopped them, unless you can find an andidote to stop all at once and that is difficult !!!

@hengsame
While moderna has the capacity to make 500-1000 million doses per year by 2021. They will only complete their phase II/III trial on October 2022. And their vaccine if it works (something moderna has not discovered yet) requires two doses. So 250 to 500 million people per year. 130 million babies are born in a year. Virus also mutates fast.

There are logistic problems that need to be solved before we can vaccinate the whole world. So don't be disappointed if a vaccine is made and we cannot it and there is a significant delay.

When the H1N1 virus first infected humans in 1918, it killed 2.6-5% of the total human population at that time (50-100 million people via modern estimates).

Today 5% of the human population would be 375 million people.

Covid19 has killed 583K people in 6 months. In one year it will kill more than 1 million people. Easily hitting 2-3 million as the virus continues to spread exponentially. Compared that 300K to 650K for the seasonal flu.

The estimated real mortality rate of Covid19 (including asymptomatic people who do not get ill and are hard to count) is 0.5-1%. That means if there is no vaccine, 38-75 million people will die. And this number comes when everyone can be given a ventilator, everyone can be treated. 20% of people infected need hospital care and hospitals do not have millions of beds. What happens when the ICU is full? What happens when the hospital runs out of drugs for supportive care and most of the doctors and nurses are sick. Then the mortality rate jumps.

Treat Covid19 seriously or we will end up like what happened in New York City, refrigeration meat trucks parked in the hospital car park full of dead bodies in biohazard bags.

Dying is only one problem, virus also damages lungs, heart, immune system and nerves. So we have people who have lost their sense of taste/smell and people who have brain damage.

Posted by vinspace8 > Jul 16, 2020 8:45 AM | Report Abuse
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html

According to new estimates published today, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year

This is despite flu vaccines having been around forever

Thanks for reminding me to check Clinicaltrails.gov
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19&term=mRNA-1273&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=&Search=Search

The name of moderna mRNA vaccine is mRNA 1273

The phase I trial is still on going
Start date: March 16, 2020
End date: November 22, 2021
Dose : 25 mcg, 50 mcg, 100 mcg, and 250 mcg / twice Day1 and Day29
Estimated participants: 155
Still open for more volunteers to join

There is also a phase II trial which is still ongoing.
Start date: May 29, 2020
End date: August 2021
Dose: 50 mcg, 100mcg
Actual enrollment: 600

Then there is a phase III trial
Start date: July 27, 2020
End date: October 27, 2022
Dose: 100 mcg / Twice Day1 and Day 29
Estimated enrollment: 30,000

Looks like Moderna is doing phase III without results from phase II or completing phase I. And Phase II uses a different amount of mRNA compared to phase III. Meaning Phase II and Phase III results cannot be directly compared.

And here is the incompleted results of phase I
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022483?query=featured_home

You need two doses of mRNA vaccine to have any immune response comparable to a person who recovered from Covid19. But note, this study goes only to 28 days after the second dose.



Posted by batman666 > Jul 16, 2020 7:32 AM | Report Abuse
Just checked clinical trials.gov for moderna covid19 vaccine 1273
Estimated Study Completion Date :
November 22, 2021
Haha...

Technically, Moderna skipped Phase II and jumped directly to Phase III trials. Right now, we don't know if Moderna's SARS-Cov2 vaccine actually works. But I guess we will find out soon enough when the trial is completed in October 2022.

https://www.todayonline.com/world/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-enters-final-stage-trial-month


Posted by mf > Jul 16, 2020 2:37 AM | Report Abuse
Moderna's coronavirus vaccine ready to advance to final phase of testing

Not unexpected. What did people think would happen when you genetically engineer your cells to produce a viral protein target?

First the genetic engineering process is slightly toxic to cells (killing a few and generally irritating surrounding tissue and liver), once your cells have been engineered to produce viral proteins, they get sick from over production of the target protein and when the immune system finds those engineered cells, they kill them.

Sure the immune system is activated (but apparently only weakly unless multiple injections are use, 2 at least), but there is cell damage and thus nasty side effects. More than you would expect in more traditional vaccines.

And this was all in the Phase I results released in May!

Also missing in Moderna results are studies on senior citizens. Does their vaccine work on them?

Posted by Boon Keng > Jul 16, 2020 12:10 AM | Report Abuse
Bloomberg reported Moderna vaccine have many side effects to the patient being tested. Seem like only come out this good news to help trump boost the DJI hahahaha.

With regard to Adenovirus based vaccine by AstraZenecca (azd1222) (Ade26) and CanSino (Ade5).

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/covid-19-vaccines-antibodies-booster/

Their approach is not without problems. A phase II trial is needed.

As an investor, I say hold NO. Demand for gloves is explosive. The US has less than 2 weeks of PPE supply left. SARS-Cov2 virus is out of control in the US, South America, Russia, Africa and India. Virus is re-eemgerging in Japan, Spain and Australia. Multiple IB have a target price for Topglove at ~RM30.

As an investor, I would hold. After the QR in June was released, TG share price shot up to from 17.20 to 18, then fell all the way to 14 (23% decline). Before rising back to 15.60. Took 2 weeks of depressed share prices before things recovered. And once recovered the stock took off, running all the way up from 15.60 to 20 to 22 to 25.

The fundamentals of this company did not changed then and has not change now. In fact every week it improves as the number of Covid19 cases per day doubles every week in the US and in India it double every 3 weeks. Around the world, 215K people are diagnosed with Covid19 per day and the figure is doubling every 6 weeks

This price fall is due to a panic attack. Moderna is releasing old news from May as new news. It is also releasing news that it is starting its phase II/III trials at the end of the month... nice but the test will only be completed in 27 October 2022. TWO YEARS from now. And since they didn't do a phase II test, don't even know if their vaccine works or not.

So please hold. If you sell now, you are sure to lose money. If you hold, the fundamentals are behind TG and will push it higher. Just give TG time to recover from the panic attack. Foreign ETF funds are starting to buy TG too.

Posted by Come > Jul 15, 2020 8:19 PM | Report Abuse
bought some at level 25.. should let go?

100% guaranteed the SARS-Cov2 virus will mutate in 1-2 years. It is already mutating and becoming much easier to spread.

However once we have a vaccine against one strain of SARS-Cov2 virus, it is easier, much, much easier to modify and update the vaccine to combat the new SARS-Cov2 strain. The first vaccine may take 5-10 years to develop but the second can be updated and modified and put into production as fast as 4-6 months.

1-2 year time line is the emergency, super accelerated, don't care about safety time line. A lot of scientist consider this 12-18 month time line unrealistic and overly optimistic.

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > Jul 15, 2020 7:47 PM | Report Abuse
So easy to come out the vaccine in 1-2 years for virus that having change capability?

You do understand that a vaccine usually takes 5-10 years to make. Ebola vaccine took 6 years to develop. The first influenza vaccine took 15 years.

SARS-Cov2 has only been know since January. Work on vaccines only began in March. So maximum 4 months of work. Saying vaccine will come out any time now is like saying a 5 year skyscraper project will be finished after just 4 months. Scientist work hard, but you are asking for magic.

Even Moderna that is sso much talked about now will only complete its combined phase II/III in October 2022, 2 years from now.

So be realistic and don't panic. Us small time retail investors cannot afford to panic on the first bit of news designed by a vaccine company to boast its share price.

I don't ask you to believe in Topglove. I ask you to believe in Covid19. Virus is very honest.

Posted by sinkalan2015 > Jul 15, 2020 6:51 PM | Report Abuse

don't be greedy. everything you guys calculated is future prospect. don't forget vaccine can be out anytime soon. do you think you wait wait until next year for this stock to grow

Simple because
1 - they don't know if their vaccine works. they skipped phase II trial, which would have found this answer using a small number of people.

2 - they need to know that the vaccine give protection for at least 1 year and not fade in 4 weeks. So trial must be at least 1 year.

3 - they need to master mass production of their vaccine. Their vaccine is new technology that has never been approve or used before. No idea how stable is Moderna mRNA vaccine or how to make the 15 billion doses that is needed to vaccine the human population (their vaccine requires at least 2 doses to work).

4- Maybe some red tape. Technically their vaccine genetically engineers human cells too produce viral proteins. Which the immune system then attacks. AS can be imagine... there might be some side effect (immune system killing your cells and continues that killing) and perhaps legal concern extremely low probability side effects.

Posted by wehcant > Jul 15, 2020 2:51 PM | Report Abuse
Moderna said the final phase will run until October 27, 2022. DAMN, why must they take so long to market the vaccine.