Only if the vaccine is properly tested.

Ever asked yourself why we don't have a dengue or HIV vaccine... it is not due to lack of trying. Some virus families have this ability called ADE (Antibody Dependent Enhancement), where if an antibody does not disable the virus, the antibody can be used by the virus to better gain entry into the host cell, making the infection worse. Like a Trojan horse.

And guess what, the families know to have ADE, are lentivirus, flavivirus, Orthopneumoviruses and Coronavirus.

So approach with caution.

All the results from Pfizer and Moderna are based on less than 10 infected vaccinated persons. If there are side effects like in the 2009H1N1 Pandemrix vaccine (narcolepsy), they won't even detect it until 10,000s of people were vaccinated 2-12 months later. There is a risk when you rush a vaccine, even against a virus species that we have nearly 90 years designing vaccines for.



Posted by virust > Nov 25, 2020 7:52 AM | Report Abuse
Look like vaccines still the safest to protect the virus. Imagine that u wear glove or mask however the glove or mask u use already infected with the virus for example the glove made from TOP GLOVE. U should be safest by not to wear it.

Please understand than in the hot and sunny environment that we live in (ie tropical climate), the SARS-COv2 virus is only infectious on a surface for only several minutes to hours (at most). The way to get Covid19 in Malaysia is to get it directly from an infected person. This is why our cases count took so much time to develop.

So unless you are wearing mask and gloves made immediately from the production line, they will be safe. So keep wearing PPE.

CV can infect the US president. Where all the people around him are tested multiple times a day. If SARS-Cov2 can reach the most protected man on Earth, what can TG management do with 20,000 workers.

TG management can't combat the virus unless it has all its workers in isolation. Something they may have to do. But you can bet western media will call it inhuman. People need to have the freedom to decided whether they want to wear a mask or not.. ending up like the US.

All they can do, is check, identify an outbreak, deep clean the factor, quarantine the infected workers and start up again with uninfected workers.

All business will eventually have to go through multiple rounds of this , should they continue face-face operations.

Posted by Riaz1954 > Nov 25, 2020 12:39 AM | Report Abuse
TG should be penalised for negligence....shocking carelessness will impact country very badly if CV goes out of,control. TG management are guilty

The virus is all over the country. In a few weeks, you find that all our factories will have cases.

Posted by cjm5555 > Nov 24, 2020 12:12 PM | Report Abuse
I can't bear the risk of production shutdown

Probably. The demand of glove is inelastic. Disposable gloves can only be reused so much before they tear.

FDA, Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) means the vaccine can be used by at risk people only, like doctors, nurses, and senior citizens, politicians.

The majority of people cannot use the vaccine. Assuming the FDA gives the pfizer vaccine approval, most american can only be vaccinated in spring or summer. It take time to produce the vaccine.

Also FDA will make it decision on December 10. It won't be next week.

Pfizer vaccine production capacity in 2021 is 1.3 billion doses, which is sufficient for 650 million people. THere are 327 million Americans, 741 million Europeans. That is alreadt 1068 million people and we have not counted other countries like Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea and Mexico... other traditional US allies.

Instead imagine next week that Covid19 cases has climbed by another 4 million new cases. Because new cases of Covid19 are increasing by 0.6 million new cases a day.


Posted by AlvinTSK > Nov 22, 2020 7:12 AM | Report Abuse
Just imagine is the emergency is approve by next week !! A majority of people can start using the vaccine, And people are expected to
ramp up their business capacity ... Economy kick start their engine!!

Only if you have no plan.

Back in October, TS Lim was saying he was interested in dual listing TG in HK.

If TS Lim really intends to list in Hong Kong, he needs to have shares to sell. He can either issue new shares (and dilute the holdings of present share holders), sell his own shares (and risk losing control of his company) or buy back shares at a low price and sell them once the share price has rebound.

So from this perspective, this SBB is logical. All TG is doing is buying shares cheaply, to sell it in a bigger market with 6x more money that the SGX and nearly 12x larger than Bursa.

As for catching the falling knife... it is not a risk if you know the value of the gloves and have been paying attention to the pandemic.It is a discount sale by people who don't the value of what they have.


Posted by williamh > Nov 21, 2020 9:09 PM | Report Abuse
Its adsolutely into high risk to spended about 1b to SBB,companyis seen like spaculators now,believe they lack of risk management ,cat Hong the fslling knife

@Posted by smoking
Sure i can imagine that.

We can also imagine Europeans coming back to visit Malaysia and our tourism industry booming again. But it isn't, not for awhile. Europe had 2 million cases of Covid19 last week.

Right now the total demand of gloves comes from treating 54 million people and running ~850 million test.

If we start to vaccine people, we will need a lot more gloves, at least 2 pairs of gloves for 7.5 billion people.


And go back to
2013... Ebola outbreak
2009 H1NI pandemic.


Most nations will retain higher level strategic reserves of PPE after this event.




Posted by smoking > Nov 16, 2020 3:13 PM | Report Abuse

imagine world return back to normal

with
1. increase in glove productions
2. too many company wants to make gloves
==> oversupply of glove ==> low profit margin ==> low profit

Prior covid topglove was selling at RM5.
now taking into account many competition, lower profit margin in the future... (after bonus issue) perhaps topglove will worth RM1-2 only after covid!!!!

Sorry to say this to you, Nov2020 will be start of when the pandemic goes wild again. Flu season peaks in Jan-Feb and ends in March.

At best it will be late 2021 before we know that we have a vaccine. At worse, we will have to beat the virus with mask, social distancing and quarantine with no vaccine.

Vaccine usually take 5-10 years to make and the fastest vaccine ever developed (mumps) took 4 years. The Ebola vaccine took 6 years to develop. When politicians go out and say they will have a vaccine in by X date, they are BS ing.

Get a power air purifying respirator (PAPR) with a hood and you will be safe

Posted by DickyMe > Oct 22, 2020 1:01 PM | Report Abuse
When pandemic makes an exit, this stock will crumble like a house of cards.

Mid Nov 2020 will be the beginning of taming the pandemic.

By May 2021 the world will be free from Covid-19 fear.

When...I would love to buy at RM4. Last dividend was 8.5sen per share and that was 1 quarter of profits. So at least Rm0.34 per year (eIB predicts RM1.2 dividend in 2021). If share price falls to rm4, that is 8.5% dividend. Given that FD is 1.75% and expected to fall to 1.5% next month...

Well... that is a good deal. In fact anything below RM19.42 will give a return better than 1.75%.

Anyway i too hope that RM4 will come.

Posted by DickyMe > Oct 22, 2020 12:27 PM | Report Abuse

RM 4 is coming soon!

Emergency authorization.
Sure can sell. But don't know if work or not. You take it at your own risk. And there isn't enough as the vaccine is limited to medical professional and pubic safety personal.

The problem is the Coronavirus family has ADE behavior, where antibodies against the virus can actually increase the severity of the viral infection.

The most familiar example to us Malaysians is dengue virus. The first infection usually mild, the second infection has a chance of hemorrhagic dengue fever. ADE occurred in a 2017 Dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia), where the vaccine actually increase the incidence of hemorrhagic dengue fever making the infection more lethal.

This is why vaccine are tested rigorously and it usually takes 5-10 years to develop a vaccine. Not 9 months.


Posted by Justicevin396 > Oct 21, 2020 12:23 PM | Report Abuse

https://c.m.163.com/news/a/FPDRR8PF00019K82.html?spss=newsapp&spss...

china officially sell vaccine , who announce vaccine approval soon. dont think its worth to hold now

They are desperate.
Brazil has about 400,000 cases in their hospitals. And since they are a poorer nation they have a higher mortality rate. Also some indications that this virus is more deadly to native people of the Americans compared to people from the old world.

So they are buying enough for all their doctors first / essential workers /leaders / rich people first

Posted by ProsperousRealm > Oct 21, 2020 12:19 PM | Report Abuse

Iddiot brazzilians committing themselves to a still not yet fully tested vaccine

They think taking vaccine is just like taking panadol kah

Wrong.

The problem is each vaccine company produces a different vaccine even though they are all targeting the same virus. And not all vaccines will work. Some will be better, some more side effects and some will fail. Invest in the wrong vaccine company and you could go bust if their vaccine does not work or has alot of side effects

Gloves on the other hand... they are mostly identical. A glove from Topglove will perform as well as a glove from Harta or Supermax. So the demand for gloves will push all the companies up.

So the safer bet is glove makers rather than vaccine makers. However for the most profitable bet, it is to bet on the winning vaccine maker.

Posted by 007007 > Oct 21, 2020 11:59 AM | Report Abuse
Vaccines are a safer bet than glovemakers.

Vaccine scare.

Brazil said they will buy vaccine from China and hope that vaccine will arrive in Jan2021. However Brazil warn that vaccine is still undergoing testing.

So people panic sell... because ??
Anyway doctors will need gloves to administer vaccine, and the vaccine is still under going testing... so don't know if it works yet.

And brazil will buy 46 million doses which is enough only for 23 million people. Brazil has population of 210 million people.



Posted by drago_7 > Oct 21, 2020 12:04 PM | Report Abuse

Anyone knows what happened for the sudden drop..?

@stocktrade101 It is the American way. The US has the working homeless. Ie they pay people so little that they cannot afford to rent a room, and have to live on the street or in their car. Also since the US doesn't believe in cooperate responsibility said company doesn't even provide housing.

It depends on what kind of small fish you are.

If you are an investor type small fish... glove sector has been very profitable. Despite the sector being rock solid in terms of sales and profits, there have been multiple -20% plunges/opportunities to add to your position, which then recover to allow you to sell if you want.

I am sure, it is a lot slower than some people would like, and you can't use margin financing. But for the right small fish this is a good environment.



Posted by Mini Bull > Oct 5, 2020 10:35 AM | Report Abuse
Small fish can't survive here

For anyone who is considering @Everybodyhuat suggestion, please note that Supermax is more volatile and has fallen from RM12 to RM5.68 in the previous plunge, nearly 53% fall. Topglove in contrast fell from RM9.46 to RM6.11, a 35% fall

Supermax is fast to rise and fast to fall.

Understand what you are buying, so you don't end up like some people here who buy high and sell low and cry because they have no holding power (financially or mentally) and don't have confidence enough in the company to buy during a plunge (ie buy low) either to add to the position or cost average their high price share purchases.

Understand what you are doing, the risk you are taking and your risk tolerance before running off.


-------
Posted by Everybodyhuat > Oct 5, 2020 9:47 AM | Report Abuse
Yes TG very slow. So much sellers at every level, making it so hard to break even 8.90 whetelse Supermax already crossed 9. I suggest to sell all TG and swap to Supermax or even Careplus. These moved up with 3-6% increment while TG less than 1% incremental daily. Useless. Think it will take a seriously long and hard to go up. By the time TG reach 10, supermx would be 15 already.

Knowing that, i won't take your order unless you pay at least half, perhaps pay in full first. Don't want, you can take your business elsewhere. No need to take a risk that a customer will cancel orders.

Posted by kopisedappp > Oct 4, 2020 2:12 PM | Report Abuse
Be careful. The glove orders placed made can be cancelled too. Just like MoU & even a contract can be terminated. So what again some placed product orders?

Only problem coronavirus family has ADE behavior like dengue virus.
Famously a dengue vaccine had ADE, and rather than protect against the dengue virus actually made the dengue virus more infection and more fatal.

10 years of research was put into developing a vaccine against the SARS-Cov1 virus, another coronavirus but no vaccine was made due to ADE.

SARS-Cov2 is also a coronavirus. Will it have ADE?

If it does, all those people taking a badly designed vaccine can get an even worse infection. This is why vaccine development normally takes 5-10 years. 11 months is just asking for trouble.

Posted by kopisedappp > Oct 4, 2020 1:43 PM | Report Abuse

Read this before you buy or keep holding topglove shares. Looks like October there will be a turning point for this pandemic

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-november-surprise-of-chin...

Ban on TG gloves only affects half of TG glove sales to the US.
Demand is still there, so price goes up. Other glove companies also have very long waiting times so cannot easily meet the demand.

So does it matter to TG is they sell 9bn glove at USD 70 (1000pcs) or USD 4.5bn gloves at USD 140 (1000pcs) to the US?

Money is money. Most of TG gloves aren't sold under the TG band name anyway.

Also US won't buy from China. So who else will the US buy from?

Only loser is the US who is suffering a shortage.

Posted by pookinek > Oct 1, 2020 11:19 AM | Report Abuse
If USA can ban gloves & palm oil import. It's the end of it lohh GAME OVER. If can lift ban already long time lift lah need wait till God knows when ka ka ka........

Glove demand is increasing. Covid19 is still here and cases per day has increased from 250K per day in august and early September to 285K per day since mid September. And glove sector is making record breaking levels of money.

But okay.... if you think glove is over. Then what are you going to buy? AirAsia? Maybank? CIMB? Genting? maybe FGV (Felda).

Somehow I think you will lose money in these companies too. No only are they facing very severe headwinds affecting their profitability (even survival), you probably don't have the patience to wait a 4-5 years for them to recover.

If you can't wait for next quarter for TG share price to recover, when they once again beat analyist expectations, you probably can't wait 4-5 year for the malaysian economy to recover.

Maybank has been on a downward trajectory since 2018. From RM10.82 all the way down to RM7.xx now. They even missed their last dividend payment (last time that happened was in 2008 Great Recession). Maybank shares fell all the way to RM3.59 during the depths of the 2008 recession.

If you are too frighten to invest in a company that is making money will you be brave enough to invest in company that is losing money?



Posted by gloveisover > Sep 30, 2020 11:33 PM | Report Abuse
Glove is over~

did anyone get their dividend shares yet?

@Posted by hahalolwtf
US doesn't have a single glove factory. They have one that is being build and will be ready in April 2021, capacity of 400 million gloves per year. Barely enough to give 1 pair of gloves to half the US population, once a year.

It is a matter of profitability. China needs to make the specialized equipment to make gloves. Find the raw material.. or build the plants to make the raw materials (there is a great demand for raw materials), then get the certification for medical gloves. THhen find customers.. unless they sell only to themselves... Europe and America are rather anti-china at the moment.

And finally, pay for all the cost of new equipment. It will take a while to become profitable. So they will start in a position of debt.

By Q3 FY2020, TG is in a nett RM200 cash position. Up from 2bn in debt in 2019.

ALl this can be done by CHina, but it isn't as simple as you imagine.

Not quite right.
Trump's FDA commissioners said vaccine will only be available next April.

Trump said his FDA commissioner doesn't know what he is talking about and insist that the covid19 vaccine will be available by November (in time for the elections).

Meanwhile, no vaccine is actually being mass produced. Trials are still on going.. or in the case of AstraZennacca only going in the UK and frozen everywhere else. So even if companies says vaccine is good, it will be months before enough vaccine is made to vaccinate the Americans, a year before there is enough for everybody else.



Posted by Stockisnotfun > Sep 20, 2020 12:53 AM | Report Abuse
Hmm next week not sure will up or not after trump said vaccine will only available for all on next year April.

@hahalolwtf
Glove manufacture is a lot more complicated that building the same room multiple times.

If you read their report carefully, they expect that the post-covid19 price of TG is RM5.xx as base case. Bull case they predict RM20.xx

So that is as low as it can go. Same reports also say TG will give +60sen in dividend in 2021, +30sen in dividend in 2022, assuming Covid19 pandemic ends in 2022. This is best case scenario. There are worse case scenarios where the pandemic continuous to 2025

Well if people want to throw, I will buy. Can't lose.

Posted by runroadtokl > Sep 20, 2020 12:08 AM | Report Abuse
Downtrend.
IB say rm5.Xx

@hahalolwtf
The investment in Vietnam is to produce factories that can make 40bn gloves a year. It doesn't say when those factories will be ready. It will probably take a few years.

TG currently (Q4 FY2020) has a capacity of 86.4bn glove a year, up from 73.4 bn annually in Q1 FY2020. TG will have a capacity of 100.4bn gloves annually by Q4 FY2021.

The two viruses can infect the same person, even the same cell. However they cannot swap genetic material. The structure of their genes are too different... the same way you cannot get a cabbage to breed with a mouse.

A double infection would make a bad situation worse. However we will be spared any strange hybrids of the two viruses.


Posted by Fong Zhin Bok > Sep 19, 2020 10:43 PM | Report Abuse

Covid 19 virus and H1N1 virus will be present at the same this winter. Both of the virus will infect the same cell and exchange genetic materials while consuming the DNA of the infected human host cell. Therefore, the next generation of Covid 19 or H1N1 virus will be the hybrid of the two virus.

The next generation of virus will have the following property:
a) transmitting rate is same as Covid - 19 virus, 10 times of transmitting rate than H1N1 virus.
b) mutation rate is same as H1N1 virus, higher than the Covid-19 virus.

Given the US pharma hasn't made any vaccine yet... their trials don't even have enough volunteers, it takes about 2-3 weeks for an infection to become apparent and it takes a few weeks for scientist to write their report....

I would say US president Trump is full of BS... He is the same US president that said the SARS-COv2 virus will go away... just go away by June... It is now September and covid19 pandemic has not gone away.

Posted by OKU_2020 > Sep 17, 2020 7:14 AM | Report Abuse
US President Trump says U.S. could start distributing a coronavirus vaccine in October ¬ next month

TG has spent enough money on buy backs. Don't spend anymore.

It should keep its money to continue with its expansion and growth to become even more profitable. TG can pay us investors with dividends.

@ Jackthejeep

When company buys back it shares, there are less share on the market, so share prices rise. This is great for existing share holders.

Also your calculation for TG dividend is wrong. TG has a 50% dividend payment policy. And the RM200 million will come from the company side of its profits. The share it purchased becomes company assets and is not consider a cost for profit calculations.

Which company would you invest in?
GenM (Genting Malaysia), share price RM2.16. Dividend payment 6sen, but has lost a total of RM1.5bn in Q3 and Q4 of FY2020

Or

Topglove, share price RM8.40, Dividend payment 6 sen and will likely make RM1.5 bn in Q3 and Q4 of FY2020.

If you pick GenM, you run the real risk that company profits continue to decline in Q1 FY2021 due to the Covid19 pandemic, causing the share price of GenM to fall even further. And even if GenM does start to recover, losing RM1.5bn is significant and recovery will take time. Also note GenM started 2020, with a share price of RM3.09. It has lost 1/3 of its value in 2020. If you look further back into 2018.. GenM was valued at RM4.70. GenM has been declining since before the Covid19 pandemic.

If you pick Topglove, profits for 2021, will be larger than 2020 by a very significant margin due to the Covid19 pandemic. The company has gone from a debt of RM 1990 million in 2019 to a nett cash positive position of RM 279 million by Q3 FY2020. Topglove started the year 2020 at the equivalent of RM1.40 (after split if factored) and is now valued at RM8.40 down from a recent peak of RM9.76

Which company would you rather put your money in? A company losing money that should not be paying dividends but does so to maintain investor confidence. With a difficult year coming. Or a company making a lot of money that it can afford to pay its dividends and will make more money in the coming year.

Meh... New Zealand has a population of 4.8 million people.Too small to even notice.

Any way the slave condition is the low salary of RM1200/mth for an unskilled laborer... Malaysian fresh grad average salary is RM2680. How much can you really pay an unskilled laborer in malaysia?


So sorrylah, Miss New Zealand.. we are poor Asians.. living in developing nation.. giving jobs to even poorer people form even poorer nations. Wished could pay unskilled laborer NZ 18.90/hr like you do as minimum wage. But our Malaysian fresh University grad only get paid the equivalent of NZ 4.88/hr. Even upper level Malaysian manager may not make NZ 18.90/hr. Yes.. by your standards.. less than 5% of Malaysian workers earn more than the minimum wage in New Zealand... So sad.

50% of the world earns less USD 165 a month, @RM 693. Or put it another way, those workers in Topglove are earning nearly double what they would make in their home nation.

@Tobby Posted by z3fthology > Sep 13, 2020 12:15 AM | Report Abuse

It isn't any different working for a 'white boss'. In fact, they are much better at exploiting workers.

Have you heard of the term the Working Homeless? Yeah.. you will find it in the US. People have a job but their pay is so low that they cannot afford to a place to live... not even a room. So they sleep in the subway, in the back of their car, or just an alley way. Homeless but fully employed... that is how you do real worker exploitation in the US.

Malaysian bosses in comparison don't know how to exploit their workers.

Dynacia... garbage penny stock company. 9 year on record, only one year 2014 was profitable. Makes steal pipes for US consumption.

Newbies... welcome to the stock market. In the short term it is a voting machine. In the long term it is weighing machine.

Right now people are panicking because they saw a IB report that said TG share prices will fall... in FY2022 when the IB estimates the pandemic ends.

Yup the retail investor stopped reading after headline. So massive sell off.

RM 5.40 is the estimated post-covid19 price of Topglove shares in 2022-2023. Of course IB has a range value, best case they see TG maintaining a post-covdi19 share value of RM20.40, worse case RM2.80

So people panicking over a target price 2-3 years from now. Ignoring that the same report estimates 64.5sen dividend for FY2021. If we believe Macquarie, the RM6.45 per share that TG ended today will yield a dividend of 10% next year.

The assumption the pandemic will end in FY2022. Once the pandemic ends, Macquarie believes that TG can maintain a share price of RM5.40 in their base scenario. Under bull scenario, TG can maintain a share price of RM20.40, bear scenario it is RM2.80

In the same report Macquarie expect TG to have an EPS of RM1.29 in F2021, which translated to a dividend of 64.5 sen.

So if TG hits RM5.40 tomorrow, you can buy the share and Macquarie expects this price to be maintained even after the pandemic ends, and the demand for gloves returns to pre-covid19 level. RM5.40 is the expected post-covid19 price for TG, assuming base scenario and the RM20.40 of a bull scenario.

We are moving so fast... covid19 pandemic not over yet and we are adjusting TG share price for a post-Covid19 world in 2022-2023 when the glove demand has returned to normal.

Can we also do this for Airasia? Just price in fair value of Airasia in a post-covid19 world. AA does not deserve to be ~60sen share. It is worth at least RM2.80



Posted by Invest1688 > Sep 10, 2020 10:18 PM | Report Abuse
What was basis Macquarie latest report tg is over value and fair price is $5.4?

Yes, their research can probably be trusted just not their sale team. Their article is misleading in its structure.

If you look carefully at their article, they are taking about a scenario where the glove demand has returned to normal, aka the pandemic has ended. They put that date around FY22.

So once the pandemic is over, and glove demand returns to normal in FY22, Macquarie predicts TG will be able to maintain a TP of RM5.40 (base scenario). Bull scenario it could go as high as RM20.40, with a bear scenario of RM2.80.

Also stated with their article, Macquarie predicts an EPS of RM1.29 for FY2021. Given TG has a 50% dividend policy, it means 64.5 dividend for 2021.

So if we believe Mcquarie... TG is now at a price very near to what it will be able to maintain once the pandemic ends in 2022-2023. And we should expect a dividend of 12sen for this quarter. And 64.5 dividend in FY2021. So people who bought TG today will look forward to a 4% annual dividend for 2020, and 10% dividend for 2021.

And very little down side to their shares once the pandemic ends.

This is the base scenario.

If the glove bull continues.. well TG could rise upto RM20.80... And given the covid19 pandemic is uncontrolled and we are entering flu season... well glove demand will rise as more Covid19 patients flood the hospitals.

Yeah i know... TA people will call me foolish for believing in FA. But there you go.

If everyone throw their TG shares tomorrow, I will be around to buy as much as I can... i mean... 10% dividend per year? Who can say no to that?




Posted by lclwyp > Sep 10, 2020 4:16 PM | Report Abuse
On 26/8/20, Macquarie gave TP 30.40. Now (2 weeks later), almost cut half to 16.20 (5.40 x3)
Their research can be trusted?

Macquarie TP, RM5.40 is for Topglove after Covid19 pandemic is over in 2022 (estimate).

In same report Macquarie also predicts EPS of RM 1.29 in 2021
Since Topglove has 50% dividend policy that means 60sen dividend in 2021.

In same report
Bull scenario see TG going to RM20.40, bear scenario falling to RM2.80

Posted by mf > Sep 10, 2020 11:05 AM | Report Abuse
TOPGLOV 5.40 SELL MACQUARIE GROUP

Macquarie makes the assumption the glove supply-demand imbalance ie (the covid19 pandemic) will end by 2022. So once that happens the super normal glove price will fall.

And with the normalized glove demand and average price, they predict that TG will stabilize around RM5.40 as their base case scenario. Their bull case scenario see TG rising to RM20.40 and bear fall to RM2.80

In a sense nothing new. We have always known the pandemic would end. But 2022 is quite a long time away and we do care about profits for the next few quarters. A lot can and will happen between now and 2022. We may even think back and consider the notion that the virus disappearing in 2022 as wildly optimistic...

Anyway if we were so confident with long term predictions and unconcerned about immediate profits, we would all buy maybank now and never sell it ever. 2025 would be a great year for the banking sector., the economy should be booming. And all stocks are at a discount now.

If Maqurarie is right about gloves, Airasia should have a very good year come 2023. Airasia is also very cheap now. Buy now and wait till 2023... although there is a risk of the the airline sector could go under in 2021.

Posted by bull_signal > Sep 10, 2020 9:33 AM | Report Abuse
Dont understand the logic behind RM5.40

Hmm... this prediction is for FY2022, when "demand-supply issue is resolved". Good to know that Macquarie thinks TG will hold the price of RM5.40 (base case) even after the pandemic (what else could equalize the glove demand issue so quickly).

Anyway, if anybody wants to sell their shares at RM5.4, i am willing to buy. Good dividend for the rest of FY2020 and FY2021. Their bull case scenario see the share price rise to RM20.40 and a bear case sees it fall to RM2.80

This is the 6th time in 9 months that TG has experienced a -20% or greater plunge since the pandemic started in January. The fundamental driver of the glove bull run, Covid19 remains unchanged. There are still 250K new cases of Covid19 a day. Demand for gloves remains high and continuous to climb.

My point on FA means.. that I am buying more TG shares at the bottom of these -20% plunges because I am confident that the share price will recover. And since I don't use margin, only cash, I can wait for the recovery; 3 weeks, next quarter, even next year. I am also very confident TG will be very profitable until at least late 2021, so I will be getting significant dividends from my TG shares while I am waiting for price recovery.

@Sensonic... you only lose if you sell. You must have holding power. You need to be confident in your decision and an understanding of the company and the sector. Think about it this way, you are buying part of a company. Treat it like you are buying a car, or computer.

TG and Supermax are making a boat load of money. More money than they have ever seen. Supermax made RM400million PAT in one quarter! TG made RM350 million PAT in the last quarter and is expected to make even more this quarter, equaling or perhaps beating Maybank. Meanwhile the other sectors of the Malaysian economy aren't doing so well.

So where else would you put your money?

PS: I have experienced six -20% falls in TG. So by this point I am a bit numb to the entire experience. I held steady through 5 plunges, and will continue to hold steady through number 6. And in a few months, there will be another plunge and another after that. The thing about a company with strong fundamental, is that it will always find its feet again and rally.

A few things you need to know about US numbers
1 - they are now reported by the white house rather than the CDC as it was previously done. Trump's while house has a political incentive to under report. And do note, that one the day the WH took over from the CDC, covid19 cases fell.

2- Trump has stopped federal funding for Covid19 test. So the US is doing 30% fewer test today then it did i July. So fewer test, fewer official cases of Covid19. The number of testing centers has also been decreased.

3- Under Trump, the CDC has changed its guide lines to hospitals. Now only people who are sick are tested for Covid19. So the US no longer test and thus counts people who are mildly ill or asymptomatic for covid19. 80% of people infected covid19 are asymptomatic or at most mildly ill.

4- Hurricanes have stop testing at the coast.

5- States are no longer needed to investigate if a covid19 is the cause of death. So if a person were to suddenly died from a respiratory failure... the coroner no longer needs to test for Covid19 as a possible cause.

Combined all together... the US will report fewer cases of covid19 and atribute fewer deaths to Covid19, especially is that person died in their homes.





Posted by hng33 > Sep 8, 2020 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

US, the world largest covid case have gradually under control, the daily new case is on downtrend.

And where will you run too?

Posted by David Coperfield > Sep 8, 2020 9:54 AM | Report Abuse
Run !Run ! Run STRONG SELL on technical Chart, no more support Chow

Meh.... same as with all other vaccine candidates. There is an immune response however several important questions have not been answered.

1- Is it enough to protect against SARS-Cov2?
No idea.

2- How long will it last?
No idea. But to be useful it has to last a minimum of 1 years

3- Does the Russian vaccine candidate have ADE (Antibody dependent enhancement)?

ADE is nasty situation where antibodies bound to the virus do not disable it, and instead are used by the virus to improve it ability to infect cells. Making the virus more infectious and lethal

Several families of viruses have displayed ADE; Lentivirus (ie HIV), Flavivirus (ie dengue) and Coronaovirus (ie SARS). ADE has been a major stumbling block in the development of a vaccine against HIV, Dengue and SARS. Unfortunately, SARS-Cov2 is a member of the Coronavirus family.

And we still do not know if the russian vaccine design has managed to avoid ADE.

4- Can enough of the vaccine be produced within a year?
The current production capacity of the russian vaccine is 30 million doses a year. And hopes to increase that capacity to 200 million doses a year IF it can find a foreign partner. Each person requires two doses of the russian vaccine. Russia has 146 million citizens. So russia needs 292 million doses. Hence both current capacity and projected ramp up capacity is insufficient to cover the Russian population much less have extra to give to Russian allies and sell to third world nations, like Malaysia.

And why 1 year? Because SARS-Cov2 mutates rapid, if 80% of the population is not covered, the virus will escape , mutated and eventually defeat the vaccine. We will need production capacity in the billion of doses to protect the population.


In fact none of the vaccine candidate in phase III trials have answered the 4 questions above because they have not completed their phase II trials and instead jumped directly from phase I, which simply demonstrates that the vaccine won't kill a human if taken, to a hybrid phase II/III, where we are simultaneously trying to answer does the vaccine work and if it does are there any serious side effects. These hybrid phase II/III trials have all the risk of a phase II trial with large population of a phase III trial.

So yes, go buy pharma stocks now... I am sure in 2 years or so Russia will have enough vaccine to sell to Malaysia...assuming that its vaccine works.

Posted by Louise4 > Sep 8, 2020 8:16 AM | Report Abuse
Oh Shit! Buy Pharma.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-vaccine-trial-in-russia-shows-promising-results-with-immune-response

@stocktrade101
There have been a few problems...

Moderna has NOT finish recruiting volunteers... They have 21,411 volunteer 2 days ago.

Moderna also has found that white people which comprise 76% of their volunteers are affluent enough to stay home or work from home. Since this are not challenge trials, and thus are depending on the vaccinated volunteer going out and exposing themselves to the virus.. this social distancing has become a problem. So much so, Moderna is now actively looking for colored people who tend to work lower down the job ladder and thus are often not allowed to social distance or work from home.

@abang_misai

China produces 10% of all the gloves in the world.
Malaysia produces 70% of all the gloves in the world.

Malaysian big glove companies have a very long backlog of orders. For Topglove this backlog is now 590 days long, up from 30 day during pre-covid19 days ie demand for gloves is now so great that customers a willing to wait 1.6 years to get their order.

Is China competition? Maybe it will be in a few years. Assuming that the trade war between US and its allies against China will stop.

What drives the glove bull run?

The Covid19 pandemic. The virus does not care about human sentiment. Why does the gloves have more to run... because there are more humans to infect. Currently 26 million people have been officially infected.... increase that by a factor of 10 to account for people who are asymptomatic... and it is just 260 million people. There are 7800 million people alive and humanity does not have immunity to this virus. Do not look at this like an economic bull run with greater fools, look at this as a pandemic with doctor having to contend with contaminated environment and hospitals that are flooding with Covid19 patients. It is bad in developing nation because they are poor and it is bad in developed nation because hospitals are not build to have excessive spare capacity. There are another 7500 million people more to go.

Vaccine typically take 5-10 years to develop. So saying we have a vaccine in 1 year is as you say expecting 9 pregnant women to give birth to a baby in 1 month. Politicians may say it time to throw a party. CEO will claim it can be done. And scientist will say we will do our best. But really the fastest vaccine ever developed took 4 years (mummps). Ebola vaccine with all modern tech of the last 2010s took 6 years to develop and test (It applied for FDA approval in December 2019).

Finally sure, you maybe willing to use the Swedish model, please consider 2 factors. (1) While the mortality rate of Covid19 is on average ~1%, this is only true if your hospitals are fully functional. 20% of people infected need medical care... as simple as antibiotics to as severe as ICU. When hospitals are pushed to their limit, the mortality rate goes up. Hospitals run of out essentials and common items, drugs, oxygen, even stuff as common as gloves. At its height the mortality rate of Covid19 in Italy was 8%, and people were saying China was hiding the true deaths as it had reported only 3.4% mortality rate.

(2) 1% mortality rate is still 1% of 7800 million people, that means 78 million people dead. More deaths than the 1918 pandemic. More deaths than WW2. In malaysia, it mean 310,000 deaths. Sweden has 20x more deaths than its neighbors. In New York, there were so many dead people, that the crematorium had to run 16 hours a day 6 days a week. Excess bodies had to be buried in mass graves and there were still bodies found rotting in the sun because Covid19 infected bodies could not be processed fast enough.

@DrLimKH
You forget to factor in history. H1N1 first appeared in 1918. influenza vaccine was made in 1945. So by 2009, we have about 70 years of experience, equipment and logistic to fight an influenza outbreak. Furthermore we only needed to modify 2008 influenza vaccine to fight the 2009 influenza. It is a lot easier to update an older vaccine than it is to create a completely new one.

The SARS-Cov2 was only discovered in January 2020. We have never made a vaccine against SAR-cov2, we haven't even made a vaccine against a member of the Coronavirus family.

So thinking that we could have a vaccine by October, 10 months after discovering a new virus is impossible. Getting a vaccine made within 12-18 months is very difficult.

Yes, technology has improved over time. The first influenza vaccine took 15 years to develop in from 1930-1945. The Ebola vaccine took 6 years to develop from 2013-2019. But technology has not developed that far that we can create a vaccine to a completely unknown virus within a 1 year. We are good but not that good.

India has new record high, 84K new cases of Covid19 a day.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

When you are in bear market where else would you be? Gloves will make profits every quarter until at least late 2021 and likely into 2022. 100% will have dividends, unlike other sectors.

So while it is hard, this here is safe. An island of green in an ocean of red.. No matter what happens, the glove sector will keep its head above water and very profitable so long as the Covid19 pandemic continues, and even a few months after that as nations around the world restock.

So stay calm.

Posted by runroadtokl > Sep 5, 2020 1:25 AM | Report Abuse

US drop.

Monday susah...

Bear bear..