Out of 260 mw, 195 mw is sold to Cambodia ,balance is sold to Laos . There was a seperate line connected to combodia。EDL is like TNB.of malaysia. So far I have not heard TNB do not pay their IPP s even when.TNB were in the red . IF EDL do not pay, mfcb can just shut off the transmission. EDL cant give the stupid.excuse of no money when they collect money from their consumers and make a profit out of it .

It is a known.fact that if you need a foreign worker., you look fir a local agent.and pay him the amount requested by the local agent . We dont ask how much the foreign worker need to pay his agent back home . Now all the glove companies plus others need to pay not only our local agents but the workers agents fees as wells.

Yesterday, when both DJ and DJ Futures dropped more than 800 pts, I thought another crash similar to March crash is imminent. During.the March crash,.many stocks dropped 30 to 50% except Topglove, supermx, harta and kossan which is not affected by the crash at all .In.fact ,all the 4 glove stocks went up sharply while the rest are still.struggling to go back to pre pandemic prices.

Morpheus, I have already assumed ASP.drop, notice 2022 earning is 5 b which is.half the peak of 10b in 2021. Also, 2023 earning is assumed to be only 1.5 b which.is less than.one third of 2022.My purpose of doing such valuation.is to have a reality check

Geary, the average earning growth for the last 8 years between the two pandemic H1N1and Covid 19 was about 18 %. In my DCF computation, I assume growth rate of 15 %
for the next.10 years starting from.2024. Profits.for 2021,.2022 and 2023 are assumed to be 10 b , 5b and 1.5 b respectively . Terminal growth rate is assumed to be.4%
and discounted rate assumed to be 8.2% .Intrinsic value is calculated to be more than 10 . Will provide exact value later after some adjustment on amount of current nett cash.

geary , the earning growth rate for the past 20 years was about 20 %. I will do a DCF computation.with different assumptions.

geary, RHB previous tgt price was rm11.10 when they used terminal growth rate of 3 %.

RHB is the only analyst used DCF to compute tgt price which is 9.50. The question of what PE.and which year earning to use.to compute tgt price should not arise since all future earnings.from 2021 till infinity are considered . We can only question their profit assumptions , discount and growth rates after.2023. In my opinion, the assumption of 2023 earning.at.4.478 billion is on the high side and the terminal growth.rate of 1 % is too low . The discount.rate of 7 %
is fair .

The rhb.TA said mfcb is in.the process of extending its upward trend . Its next resistances are at 7.65 and 7.85.

Based on RHB TA ,.the correction is.almost over. I took the opportunity to add more mfcb at between 7.00 to 7.22 in the last 2 weeks.

In the past during pre pandemic periods, topglove used to get PE of above 30
by the markets. Harta used to get PE of 50 followed by Kossan at more than 25 and Supermx at about 20 or below. The pandemic period is not normal but extraordinary especially for 2021 which has exceptional earnings of possibly more than 20X . Such super earning is not repeatable and if they give normal PE ,.the tgt price will hit more than 100 of pre bonus tgt price. To overcome this , I still.think.temporarily using DCF is a fairer method to value the glove stocks during.such.periods . My 2 cts.opinion.

If we look at the estimates from the.various analysts and average out the earnings per year, we can roughly use 2.5 billions earning per year fir the.next 10years . This will give an average EPS of 30s .Using the past PE of 35 for topglove, it should give a tgt.price of 10.50. This will psychologically take away yhe fear that.when pandemic is over, topglove is not worth so much.

Since there is an.extra.ordinary earnings for a few years and then it will taper off after that, using.PE to evaluate.the.glove stocks might not be a good method. I think.using.DCF.will be a better method in.this case because DCF will take into consideration all cash flow generated . The current method of using.PE subject to Analyst s decision of taking a particular year into consideration.and ignoring.the peak year which.make the most money . If analyst insist to use PE, the peak earnings should be linearise or artificially.distributed to subsequent.years .

Out of 14 analysts predictions, 11 gave tgt prices of more than rm 9.0.. Out of the 11,.seven gave tgt prices of mote than 10.

Good upgrade by HLI to 13.00 tgt price

Topglove fy 2020 earning comprises only 2 qtrs of pandemic qtrs .The earlier 2 qtrs were pre pandemic . At yesterday closing price, the PE is only 34. Forward looking another 2 qtrs, with predicted total earnings of 4 to 5 billions , PE will drop to about 10. Many analysts predicted such earnings will.prolong till.end of 2022 with unprecedented demand increase of 20 25 and 20 % for 2020,2021and 2022. After that demand will.taper off at 15% annually. With such.growth rate plus billions of nett cash, reasonable dividend yield , extremely good.margin of more than 40%, ROE of 37 % , a higher PE is more justified.

Based on total eps of last 4 rolling qtrs , Topglove PE is lowest at 34 followed by Supermx at 40, Kossan at 50 and then. Harta at 86. It is ironic that Topglove , the world number 1 glove maker was sold down with lowest PE. Topglove management provide quite good visibility. of next qtr earning with % of spot.sales and ASP increases. The next rolling 4 qtrs eps will give Topglove PE at about 17 assuming next.qtr earning at 1.5 X of Q4 earning based on today closing price.

KYY has been.switching from.comfort to supermx and then to topglove. Now switching.from topglove to supermx.again

My estimate for Q4 profit. Take Q2 as a base for pre pandemic .Assuming spot price iin Q4 is 3X of pre pandemic and OEM price of 2X prepandemic. Take 20% for spot sales and 80% of.OEM sales. This will give a factor of 2.2.X ASP increase during.Q4. Revenue increase due to ASP increase will be 2704- 1229 which equal to 1475 millions. Assuming a tax.rate of 20%, additional profits is 1180. Assuming a volumr increase of 15 %,.then additional revenue is 406 million . With a.net margin of 48%, additional profit is 195 million. Total profit will be 115 + 1180 + 195 millions = 1490 milliond or 1.49 billions.

首季means first qtr, 次季means second qtr. Harta First Qtr Financial year is April, May, June. Its ASP for second qtr.increase by 30 % on the average . It will further increase its ASP by sbout 30 to 40% in subsequent qtr which is the third qtr. Based on this information, I estimate Q2 Profit to be 420 million and Q3 Profit to be 725 million assuming no increase in volumes

Investors who want to get high dividend yield.should go for Maybank, Uchitech, panamy ,malakoff which gives about 6 to 7% dividend yield but their share prices do not grow like the glove counters . Airasia overly ""generous ""by giving more than 100 % dividend last year ended up have to borrow 2.5 billion to sustain the business.

Penta has not been giving a single sen of dividend since 2008 until only recently a 1.5 sen.was given. Howver, its share price has gone up.about 100 X since 2008.

The markets totally disregard MacQuire's baseless and unsubstantiated tgt price of rm 5.40

Apple has been.thriving until its market.cap is 2 trillion but the workers are not getting as rich as the shareholders. S hould CBP stop the shipments from going into US?

During the intervirw,.LWC stated that gloves business ia a growing business with annual growth of 10 to 15% for the last 30years. During.these periods, he encountered 5 exceptional growth with the current pandemic the biggest growth . After this super growth it will go back.to its normal growth rate. Top glove beat the normal growth rate with CAGR of 21%.
Its share price growth is even. more phenomenal. It has grown more than 250X since listing in 2001. This.translated into.CAGR of about 30%. These extraordinary growth is proof of LWC and its management competency. Will this extraordinary period accelerate topglove growth better than the past 20 years.?

Based on MQ own report, fy 2020 estimated profit is 1.725 billion, 2021 is 10.259 b and 2022 us 2.022 b .These give a total of 14 billions. During last night interview, LCW stated that topglove will increase its worldwide.market share from.25 % to 30%.this year. With such a big cash piles, topglove will increase its market share further through merger ,acquusitions and its own capacity add .When you reach a market share of more than.40%,you are in a position to control the pricings. Can you wonder why Apple ,Huawei and Samsung made tons of money by selling a few thousand ringgits per handphones ? These 3 control more than 50% of market share .Topglove will not be the same topglove comes 2023. It may be 2 to 3X of current topglove thru expansions and acqusitions of health related businesses .

Many topglove investors are thinking that once the pandemic is over, the ASP will go back to normal and Topglove will go bsck to.the old.Topglove . There is no doubt that the pandemic will be over in.2022 ,2023 or later but topglove us no longer the old topglove of pre pandemic. If you take MQ teport, Topglove is going to make a total of 14 billions in 2020,2021 and 2022 combined. Topglove only made a total of about 2 billion for the last 20years. Do you think LWC will let this 14 billions stay idling ?
LWC will use the money to buy uo all the small glove manufacturers .Before 2025, I believe Topglove capacity will be.doubled . Assuming it spent 2 billion to double the capacity, the balance 12 b can buy up the whole of Dufu, Dlady, Panamy and Uchitech and.still have balance of few billions in the bank .Topglove is definetely not the same as the old prepandemic topglove. comes 2023. MQ valuations of the.company is totally off .It has intentionally.miss out the.huge cash piles accumulated from 2020to 2022.

Investing in glove counters in the last 3 months is not for the faint hearted . The wild swing and the high volatility of price movements can easily knock you off . In my opinion, during such volatility period, strong trust on.FA provide a good 定心丸" tablet to stabilize the heart"" . I am happy to add more supermx and topglove 2 days ago after putting more trust on FA.than TA.

In my opinion, it is a matter of time within this year TG will overtake maybank simply because TG has incresing profit for the next few qtrs while maybank will.see decreasing profits due to squeezing of interest margins after bank negara reduce a cummulative OPR of 1.25%. Share prices are directly affected by future earnings. There is a high possibility TG may overtake maybank before Oct if maybank share price drop below 7.45.

When asked by the 8tv interviewer whether Topglove will beat Maybank as bursa biggest market cap company, Tan Sri LWC.said it is posiible after the announcement of Q4 result next week . Topglove may overtake maybank.in.Oct . TG share price must hit 10.30 in otder to overtake maybank at 7.45.

Apple with 2 trillions market cap ,the shareholdets made tons of money but the poor workers get pittance. The subcon for apple , Fox con used to have many suicides due to immense stress and pressures. Once , the workers who work for Nike could not even.buy a pair of Nike shoes with the whole month salary. The US CBP should also ban the import of these shoes and Iphones into.US.US is the world number one.hypocrite snd practise double standard.

Shame on McQuire . Just two weeks.ago, still maintained the tgt price of 30.50. Now, change the method of valuation to 2023 earnings which is so far away .The tgt pricr was slashed almost 50% within 2 weeks. How to trust such report?

The price drop is due to general poor market sentiments . If you look at the earnings of last five years, mfcb has an CAGR of 29 % which.is superb . If you look at last 15 years, it has an earning CAGR of 15 %. Compare with Malakoff which has negative earning growth in the last 5 years, mfcb deserve a.higher PE than malakoff which is between.12 to 15.While.the DS power plant provide consistent earning in.the next 25 years, the solar , resource , label and packaging businesses will provide growth in futurrs.

Karlos, the.company Electricite du Laos ( like TNB equivalent) will buy electricity from IPP Don Sahong power plant and sell it to Cambodian TNB equivalent. It is company to company dealings . Nothing to do will Laos national debts . TNB will continue to pay its IPP regardless of how big is our malaysian government debts. I dont see any linkage of Don.Sshong.IPP with Laos national debts.

pputeh, you can read the public.invest report dated 16th jan 2020 titled Begin transmission to cambodia . The Laos givernment sell 195 MW to cambodia at 7.29 cts Per kwh while the balance 65 MW is used in Laos . Laos government buy at a rate of 6.15 cts from MFCB.

pputeh, you can check from one of the public invest report in 2019. Either q2 or q3 report. MFCB had to construct a special.transmisiion line from Don Dahong to Cambodia for the sale of electricity to cambodia. The balance is.used by Laos goverment . In fact Laos government make some money from the mark up .of 6.15 cts to 7.00 cts per kwh from the electricity dale to cambodia

80 % of Don Sahong electricity is sold to cambodia which run.short of electricity for the next few years due to rapid developments from chinese investors.

Earning per share or eps is the most important factor driving sgare prices although there are other important factors like earning growth, cash flow, ROE, dividend yield .If you compare the eps of mfcb with ytl and malakoff, you can see a world of difference . mfcb eps is between 15 to 20s per.qtr whereas the others are between less than 1 sen to 2 sen in the last one year

probability. yes .the interest rate for its loan.is not fixed. In fact, in.2019 Q4, there was a.big interest saving . I expect further interest saving.this year with the low interest environment .

probability, I took the number from klse screener

probability, I mean 68s . 338 million divide by latest number of shares of 494 million

You are right, probability. If we use the estimate of 90% utilization for second half, the revenue from DS is about 267 million. Using a profit margin of 71%, second half profit is about 190 million. Assuming the resource and packaging divisions contribute 10 millions, total profits for the year will be about 338 millions. This will translate into 68 s EPS for the.whole year .

Probability, I am glad you still.keep mfcb . I and my.family members added mfcb from 6.40 to 7.04..My son use DCF and valued the power division at about 8.50 using discount rate of 7 %
instead of the usual 10% since the interest rates have been.coming down quite a lot. Other businesses are.valued using PE . Total value is about 10.50 to 11.00 .

MFCB can generate more than rm 400 million FCF per year. With a total debt of rm 690 million, technically MFCB can pay off all its debt in the next 2 to 3 years. MFCB can decide not to pay off the debt so soon.and keep the cash to pay some dividend . It can still.a be a nett cash company in 2 to 3 years time .

Tobby, China had never said they.want to follow the western.style democracy since Deng opened up China to the rest of the world. US and the west readily embraced China with China being.in the UN, WTO, WHO.etc.Deng and the subsequent leaders had repeatedly said that the current socialist system with chinese characters serve China well. This unique system has upgraded 800 millions Chinese from poverty. Compared with India which is the world largest democracy, its per.capita is only one fifth of.CHina despite the fact that they are at the same level in the 70s. The real motive that US want to decouple China is not about.democracy but to stop China.from being number1 . US prefer China to be like India which pose no threat to US. The fact that Saudi ARabia,a non.democracy is a good friend of US whereas Iran a democracy becomes the worst enemy of US exposes the biggest hypocrisy of US and the western world.

Probability, based on Supermx Q4 2020 result analyst briefing, we can actually estimate the earnings of Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 2021.The informations from.slide 4, 9 ,13 and 14 provides pricing ,leadtimes and orders .These info enable us to estimate the increasing earnings of the next 4 qtrs.I estimated the earnings of next 4 qtrs of.approximately 620 million,775 million, 978 million and 1114 million respectively. Total earning for 2021 is 3.5 billion. My assumption is no capacity increase and no cost increase. Strictly based on ASP increase and monthly volume of 2 billion pcs.This translates into rm 2.57 per share.With just a PE of 15, the tgt price is rm 38.6 if we base on FY 2021 earning.

Thank you freetospeak for your write up. I agree that Supermx should be reevaluated and accorded a higher PE on par with Topglove amd Harta with its OBM distribution channels which had proven to reap the benefits .The last.qtr result with 43% margin showed that supermx OBM model plus marketing restructuring with higher allocation to OBM and cutting off agents and middlemen yield a more superior margins than the other top 3 glove makers.

Thank you freetospeak for your write up. I agree that Supermx should be reevaluated and accorded a higher PE on par with Topglove amd Harta with its OBM distribution channels which had proven to reap the benefits .The last.qtr result with 43% margin showed that supermx OBM model plus marketing restructuring with higher allocation to OBM and cutting off agents and middlemen yield a more superior margins than the other top 3 glove makers.

Public invest upgraded tge price to 6.74 when Q1 result was out on 28th May. Then about 2 weeks later, public invest upgraded the tgt price again to 7.47 on 13th June. Then a month later , it upgraded mfcb again.to 7.76 in July. That means public invest had actually upgraded another 2x before Q2 result is out . This two upgrades is more than a.ringgit. Public.invest may.upgrade in one or two months time before Q3 result is out

Many investors in glove counters are saying that during thus pandemic only the glove and pharma counters provide visibility of earning for the next one to two years. I am obliged to tell them that mfcb provide earning visibility for the next 25 years. AS long as Mekong river flow with water , mfcb will flow with.money. Cheers.