Topglove is a safe bet at this price if you buy and hold for medium or longer term. Based on the average projections of more than 10 IBs , we can expect an extraordinary total dividend of about rm 2.20 per share for the next 3 years. Assuming after 3 years ,the glove ASP drop to US 25 per 1000 and the capacity of 170 billion and profit margin of 15 % , the PE is still at the low of 20 only based on today price of about 6.60. The average PE of topglove in the pasr is 28. You are still buying at a discount not forgetting you have a windfall dividend of rm 2.20.

I have added 30k this morning . With forward PE of 5 based on this year and next year earnings plus dividend yield of 15 and.a few billions of nett cash , there is good margin of safety..

With harta earning today and projected earnings of next 2 years , Harta price today is at a 50 % discount.. If two years later , the earnings may taper off and the price today may not be a dis count , will you buy Harta today?

Dicky, Salary of rm 700 as operator is considered is considered good in 1990. A fresh enginner pay at that time is about rm 2000 at that time. Unfortunately after 30 years , salary of fresh enginner today is about 3k to 3.5 k whichbis less than double. Taking your number of rm 700 in.1990 and assuming it is doubled today , it is only 1400. With daily overtime plus weekend and public holidays overtime, take home pay can reach.2000 or more.

DickyMe, Have you worked in any labor intensive factory before? Where you get the number of rm 2400 of starting pay for operators?. I had worked in a few factories for 30 plus years . I knew the starting pays of operators of electronic companies from 1978 .. Starting pay of rm 2400 is way off .

Ben and Adcool, out of the 36 factories, there are 2 in Thailand , one in China and one in Vietnam. These 4 factories are not banned by US. Topglove can still ship gloves from these 4 factories to US. These 4 factories represent 11 % of Topglove production volume assuming all factories has equal volume.This is the reason why Topglove revenue is not much affected by the ban by US on gloves produced by the Malaysian 32 factories

JPM is trying to use availability of vaccines, ESG issues plus covid infections on.glove makers to short the stocks. However the fundamentals of these stocks are still rock.solid. It is a gross mistake to short glove stocks which have already.came down 40 to 50 % from the peaks. These stocks are expected to report record earning is the next few qtrs and their PE s will be single digit . The net cash positions of all these glove makers will enable them to pay good and special dividends. Topglove specifically announced dividend payout of about 15 % yield. It is a grave mistake to short these stocks right now.

I just read Topglove has 9000 vacancies of which 4000 are general workers . This will help the jobless and at the same time.replace some foreign workers. The cost.per foreign worker is easily 2k per month inclusive of basic salary, permit fees ,agent fees plus transport and lodging.

The efficacy of Pfizer vaccines under mass vaccinations may not reach 95 %. This is due to difficulty in ensuring vaccines will stay at minus 70 degrees when.too many personnel.are involved in mass vaccinations. For those who had worked in high volume manufacturing can understand that experimental low volume yield will.akways be better than.when.in.mass production. It takes time to train personnel to follow the process steps. In the case of Pfizer vaccines, the biggest challenge is the storage temperature of minus 70 degrees. I. am not surprised if the efficacy is much lower than 95 % in mass vaccinations. Deviations from process specs are.highly.probable.

Based on public invest latest report, the share price of mfcb is at PE 9x of forward earning. This valuation is unappreciated based on tindustry PE of 14x. There is an upside of 35 %.The Don Sahong power plant also expect the highest availability factor for Q4 2020 which is the wettest qtr.At the point of writing this comment, the share price has risen 28 sen to 7.00,

Public invest latest report re iterated tgt price of rm 8.62. For the first time , Public invest highlite the potential 50 years concessions of about 10000 ha coconut plantation owned by mfcb.

The American.and European companies like.National semiconductors , Siemens ,Motorola etc used to employ may local operators but no lodging were provided. Most of the operators are.from kampungs who need to rent a house and share . To save cost ,the house is quite cramped with more than 10 persons per house. Mattresses are on the floors plus many woks in the kitchen. Are the companies responsible for their cramped and unhygienic lodgings rented by the operators from the kampung ? The companies made billions over the last 40 to 50 years but I have never hear any US or European human right groups published any article highliting the plights of our local operators who work day and night earning little but stay in a deplorable conditions. Now., the migrants workers were provided with free accomodations but the double standard Media or human rights groups seems to care so much but turn a blind eyes on our own local operators who are not even provided with any lodging.

Many years ago , there was a complain by human rights groups that a Nike worker in Vietnam earn such a low salary that her one month salary can.only buy her a pair of Nike.shoes. It was obvious that Nike exploited the workers. But did US ban Nike shoes from.being imported to US ? The answer is NO. A decade ago, there were a number of suicides in.Foxconn due to.too much stress on.the workers to meet the targets in a military style.environment. Foxconn was making Iphones for Apples. Did US ban Iphones from being.imported to US ? No. The double standards are obvious and.clear.

The ex CEO of GE used to tell his business manager that you are either the world number 1 or number 2., otherwise you cant make much money. Although this is a simple rule in business, it is still true. In cellphone business , where is Nokia, Ericson, blackberry, alcatel, sony, htc, motorola etc? They are all gone . Only the top 4 or 5 will survive. Topglove is world number one just like samsung or Apple . After pandemic ,when the price goes back to normal, the small players will close.shop. Glove business us a.volume games. If you dont have the volume: you dont have the economy.of scale

It is just too simplistic to.assume that when the pandemic is over ,demand for glove will.be back to pre pandemic time .in 2 to 3 years time. It is a wrong assumption to value the stock as pre pandemic valuation. Based on Topglove past 18 years records from 2001 till 2019, its revenue,earnings and.share prices has grown.at an average of about compounded 20 %. That means in every 3 to 4 years , its earnings.and share prices will double. Topglove is a 100 baggers from.2001 till 2019. If you extrapolate , Topglove would have double its share price of 2019 in 2013 based on its average gowth rate even without the extra ordinary pandemic. We should also not just omit the exceptional profits of abot 30 billions made betwren 2020 till 2023. This profits is sbout 8 x of what topglove made from 2001 till 2019. This is real cash if which 70 % will be rewarded bac to the shareholders as dividend and the balance 30 % will be used to re invest in its capacity expansion. The total dividend would be worth about rm 2 . The company will be at.nett cssh position compared with nett debt position in 2019. These 2 factors.should be considered in our valuations of topglove.

Tan Sri Lim recd a total of 470 million dividend on this monday based on his 34.8 % topglovr shares . This amount is enough to counter further shorting by the IBs.

If JP offered to sell me topglove below 6.00 by shorting like last week, I will buy more. Then after next week , JP need to buy back to cover the shorts, I will sell them back at more than 6.70 .Thanks JP in advance for selling low and buy high from me. It is a good business.

Gillian Tan, thanks for the information.

Ben Tan , you ate right . Q1 2021 margin is already 50 %. With incressing ASP in Q2 and Q3 , the net margin should be higher than 50%. If the estimated revenue for 2021 is rm.25.6 billion , its net profit should be at least 12.8 billion assuming net margin of 50 %. Its prediction of 7.9 billion net profit is way off.

JP Morgan latest.report maintain hold at RM 6.50 for topglove. This is way above the RM 3.50 tgt price set in Dec 2020. Within a month, its tgt price goes up almost 100 %.

Bslance view, the demand will.exceed supply is from Harta CEO in the last AGM. The.ASP taper off to 35 dollar is from kenanga report.

The glove makers are predicting demands will still exceed supply for the next 3 to 4 years。If we assume the ASP will taper off to 35 dollars per 1000 in 2024 and also assume that the capacity per year double to 172 billion pcs, the revenue per year is rm 24 billion. With a net margin of 15 %, net profit is 3.65 billion. This translate into 44 sen eps. With a consevative PE of 20, it is worth 8.80. Dont forget the big chunk of dividend which will be distributed in the next 3 years. Assuming Topglove make 10, 10 and 6 billions in the next 3 years and with 70 % payout, the total dividend per share is rm 2.2 per share . If you buy at today price at 6.20, you are actually buying.at rm 4 .00 . The PE is less than 10 actually even if the ASP taper off at the worst case scenario of 35 dollar per thousand pcs in 3 years time.

Thanks for the great article . I bought both Topgloves and Supermx on Tuesday and Wedneday seeing the great opportunity to buy at super low prices for stocks which have super growth rate , super.cash flow , super margin , super.ROE and super low forward PE .As for Topglove super high dividend yield of 15 %. It was a big mistake for the institutions to short such good stocks with great fundamentals and higher earnings for the next few qtrs

The Americans and western countries are hypocrites and.akways apply double standards. US are having.21 millions peoples infected and 380 k peoples died. Does anyone push Donald Ttump and their health minister to resign. When China just had a few thousands infected and.hundreds of death, hell break lose and the westerners are quick.to blame and humiliate.

Tan KW, Thanks. With the adjustment, my overall return is 25 %.

Tan KW, I think the Jaks share closing price of 69.5 sen was not adjusted due to right issue and warrant .The normalised price of Jaks is equivalent to 1.79 compared with the 1.272 price at 2019 dec 31 closing. There is a gain of 40 % but it was computed as loss in your format.

Yes. I saw the list too. The institution shorted Topglove which it downgraded to 3.50 . It also shorted many other stocks like mfcb,jaks, inari etc.

Glorene seems be blind on those migrant construction workers who stay in.dilapidated temporary sheds in almost all big construction.projects. The big construction companies dont even provide hostels to these construction workers. There is no proper toilets in these temporary sheds which house these workers. Glorene seems to selectuvely target Topglove but intentionally ignored much worsed housing conditions on those construction.workers

MFCB has the lowest PE and highest margin of more than 60 % compared to.similar businesses of power generations like MALAKOFF , KPOWER , YTLPOWR , JAKS.. MFCB has proven profits for the last 4 qtrs . With such lucrative profits,we expect mfcb to pay higher dividends next year.

mfcb started rallying today. I still suspect the last one week depressing of mfcb prices has to do with the call warrant which expired yesterday. The issuer will use the average of last five days pricings to settle the amount need to be paid to the warrant holders.

SDR245, by next year Nov, Jaks power plant would have 2 qtrs of actual.profit. If it can perform as per prediction ,then tgt price will be 1.1 based on 30 % ownership and 1.48 based on 40 %.ownership.This is based on.PE of 10.

Jaks Q3 result was out yesterday .This give a rolling annual eps of 2.3 sen and a PE of 28 at yesterday price of 66s.
For those who would like to take mfcb as a precedent by investing in jaks, I would like to make a comparison in.the journey of investing in power plant business. When mfcb announced its COD in the first week of Jan 2020, its share price was.with a multiple of 22 which is lower than 28 despite mfcb was in.a better financial situation.than jaks plus other potential businesses like packaging ,solar and resource。Today, mfcb has demonstrated and prove itself with 9 months of real power generating. business on.Don.Sahong. Market is giving a PE of 11 to 12. The lower PE was caused by market pricing did not grow as fast.as eps which has grown from 25 sen.to 63 sen in the last one year. The share price grew only 50% while earnimg.grew 2.5 x.Hope jaks can replicate mfcb performance and deliver as per prediction.

For those who have patience and perseverance and waited until today would have made good profits. I am glad I kept 200k and bought back another 270 k at 90 s when.ALP made a press statement that Unit one will be COD in Nov and unit 2 in next Feb..Congratulations .I take my hats off and salute DK ,OTB and their hardcore followers for their convictions ,persevarance and patience.

Public lnvest latest report give a new TP of 8.62 .

Fske news like no dividend are.spread to get peoples to sell.to depress the price

There is a kenanga call warrant expiring on.30 Nov with a conversion price of 5.20 and exercise ratio of 5 to 1. Anyone know what is original price offered by kenanga. I suspect somebody is trying to depress the price so that the issuer do not need to top up so much for the warrant settlement

mfcb paid 6 sen dividend in.August 2020 and will pay another 6 sen on 2nd Dec.

MFCB Q3 profit of 89.5 millions is a record profit in the history of mfcb financial. This is achieved with contributions from the 3 businesses of power generation, resource and packaging. The cash flow from.operation has also improved with a nett cash of 250 millions generated in the cumulative 3 qtrs. Q3 itself generated 127 millions nett cash from operation. The packaging business is seeing exponential growth in both revenue and profits. The management expects a better profits in Q4 from Don.Sahong power .

mfcb result is out . profit is 89.5 million . yoy is 512%。 Within our expectation. Cheers.

Kenken, mfcb is also my most profitable investment in my 20 plus years stock investment. I agree with you that mfcb has few other businesses which.will grow in.futures. MFCB has good track records of more than 20 years in revenue growth and profits growth.

If you take a refence of 2 years or 3 years ago, mfcb has doubled its share price while the klci has gone negative .If you take a one year reference, mfcb share price has gone up 50% while the klci is flat . Relatively mfcb has outperformed the klci although it may appear to be boring and unexciting. For a stock to double its price in 3 years ,its average annual compounded growth rate is 24 % not including dividend received. This is warren buffet average growth for his investment. Kenken should be happy with his mfcb investment unless his goal is to be better than buffet .

The formation of RCEP , more labour intensive low end or middle end industries will be transferred to Vietnam. Demand for electricity will further increased . Jaks has resolved 3 key issues of late . The right issues resolve cash flow issues. The selling off of its property business stop the bleeding of many years. The completion dates of its power plant is getting more and certain. These augurs well for Jaks.

WIth the formation of RCEP, more low or middle end industries will move from China ,Korea and Japan to ASEAN countries like Vietnam , Cambodia. Demand for electricity will goes up correspondingly.

Profit of Q3 of 2019 was 14.6 million. If Q3 2020 profit is 90 million, then YOY will be up 616 % or 6.16 x. The cumulative rolling 4 qtr EPS will be 68 sen based on 455 million shares.

mfcb inching up .

Pputeh, In actual fact,MFCB started COD in.Q1 of 2020 running 3 turbines due to dry season. Its utlization rate is about 70 % because Q1 is the driest season. Despite the dry season mfcb is able to generate 57 million profit . In Q2, with more water from rainfall,mfcb generated 81 millions profit. We expect the coming.Q3 to have the highest utilization of 95 %. and also the highest profit .The award of cod cerificate in this OCT. is just a formality .

SteadyNerves, I wish your estimation is better than mine. There is also a few % drop.due to exchange rate. Q2 exchange rate is about 4.35 on.average but Q3 exchange drop to less than 4.2 on average . This will impact a few millions earnings

In Q2, mfcb made 81 million. Q3 is the wettest qtr . Can expect a better utilization rate than Q2. Expected profit can be betwwen 85 to 90 millions. EPS could be around 20 sen.

pputeh, you are welcomed . This announcement help to boost up market confidence on mfcb. Up 20 sen this morning.

mfcb just announced dividend of 6 sen ex date of Nov 24 and payment date at 2 nd Dec .