On 4/12, HRC was at RM 11.40 and call warrant CH was at around 45 cents. Now HRC at 12.50 rgt, , but call warrant CH is at ---42 cents!!

So CH still has potential to go up as it is only 3% premium to Mother, for those with low capital.

HRC earnings visibility is v good, and is a complex refiner. Present crack margin is still around 10, compared to latest report average of 8. Brent crude is still over US 50.

At 8 margin, eps is RM 1.20 for 3 rd quarter, so at margin of 10, eps for 4 th quarter is ???

At the present rate, HRC can possibly touch RM 13 before year end.

Forgot to tell you all, so far NO Investment Bank has covered HRC. Just imagine if an IB gives a recommendation to buy HRC, because - very, very low PE, high Cash Flow, highest ROE,high transparency, simple to understand profitability etc.

I believe IB have not collected enough to cover for their call warrant exposure and they are scrambling. Once they have their CW covered, then only will they issue a recommendation to buy.

Worth a try for those brave enough. Price can only go higher from here.

It depends, 100 shares of HRC costs RM1,246. For RM1246, you can buy 3 HRC CD call warrants, each costing RM400, with a gearing of over 2. Risk of Call warrant is higher compared to buying HRC ordinary share.

However, in uptrend, call warrant performance is profitable. 40 cents x 12 =4.80 add 8 rgt Ex Px, gives 12.80, total value, minus present Mom's price of 12.46, Thus premium you pay because you have a chance to participate in Heng Yuan despite price of 12.46, by paying only 40 cents, and valid for long months, is 34 cents divided by Mom 12.46, giving you a premium of over 2% !!!

For me, it is a small price to pay, to give those daring enough to offer an apportunity to get profit.every time HRC go up in price, due to lack of capital !!

Already going to be end of December, and Crack Margin is high, thus barring unforeseen circumstances, a very conservative eps estimate of more than RM1/ for 4 th quarter is very highly achievable.!! Plus HRC has no tax.!!

For those new to call warrant, premium is amount in percentage, the higher price you pay compared to fair value when you convert to Mother share, i.e.- price you pay, times the conversion ratio, then add the exercise price.

CH has the advantage of being a low price, 40 cents, and the premium is low, comparable to CD which is higher price at around 71 cents.

Cheap entry to Heng Yuan if you believe it can go higher,( Rm 15/ possible plus higher percentage gain !!! - Bought many, and will be buying more, i.e. if the price, still never move !!!

Fred Tam says 12.30 resistance, now higher already. All time high, so no more resistance ?

Call warrant CH is a screaming buy as the premium is v low as it hardly moved the past few days tho Mom moved a lot !!!

HRC can definitely be higher than Petron as all parameters are better than Petron, i.e., PE, ROE, FCF ,etc except dividend which they need money for upgrading.

Target of RM 15, definitely highly possible.!!!!

HRC priority is to perform well, no fire, increase mgt efficiency !!!

Then profit increase, cash flow more, share price will go up. Loans can be easily paid when they sell inventories which they stock up to cover during maintenance period.

4 th quarter, HRC confident making conservative eps of 1 rgt. due to good crack spread for Oct, NOv already.

OTB and KYY are men of integrity and they dont do this. KYY recommends that we dont sell HRC as the potential gain is large.

HRC will go up in price further should they declare a simple dividend or share split and when people realize how undervalued this share is. It is a screaming buy. Not many can buy as price is high, but they can buy call warrant, the best is CA, second - CD.

Anyhow, this price wont stay for long as its fundamentals are too strong to ignore. - Do read Part 7. Price is facing roadblock at 11.30 rgt, so that institutional buyers can still buy at low price. I believe when they have gathered enough, then it will be recommended to the public.

Strange isn't it, up till now no coverage on HRC, only Petron.

When IB comes out with favorable report on HRC, then you will see the price jumps.

Buying more as, compared to Petron, Pet Dagang, more superior in every aspect, ROE, PE, FCF, etc.

Call warrant CD is better than CC as premium lower and also to others - except CA, which has the lowest premium.

Dr David LIm has done thorough analysis of HRC, and surmised that it can possibly earn more than 300 million. Year EPS, more than RM3. At present price 11.28, price ridiculously low !!! Highest Eps in Bursa. Where can find another ?

If they can push Petron, dont see why cannot push up HRC which is seriously very undervalued !!!

Not to worry, see how Petron rebound after same article ask to sell !!

Today
T plus 3, sontra players sell mah. Later, can go up.

Good if can buy more, sure untung.

Surprised that many call warrant buyers, buy call warrants based on price, volume traded, rather than based on lower premium.

CB, CC higher premium than CD, yet their price is higher.

I believe more value for your money by buying CD, premium only around 3 %, if not wrong.

HY price can go higher as estimated eps for year is around 3.60, highest in Bursa.the ROE is very high, and at very conservative pe 5, price should be RM 18. KYY advise not to sell, but buy at this level.

In valuing call warrants, the lower the premium the better as we have to take into consideration the exercise price and the conversion ratio.

Dont base decision on price alone !!

If I am not mistaken, the call warrant with least premium is HRC- CD at around 5 %, maturing end February 2018.

Someone said, the investment bankers will scramble to cover their call warrant exposure when HRC price rises. There are many call warrants on HRC, so price can and will go up.

Also if there is a write up on HRC by investment bank like Kenanga, Public Invest, etc as shown recently on PetronM, with higher Target Price, due to expected higher eps, then price can possibly go up.

However, contra players will square off on or before T + 3, so price may jump after that. Tomorrow will be an exciting day for HRC believers. !!

If 4 th qtr eps is around 1.20 rgt, total year eps is 3.60 rgt. Assuming very conservative PE of 5, then HRC should touch RM 18.

Crack spread is higher in 4 th qtr, and assuming no derivative loss as ringgit strengthens, no shutdown, some inventory gain as OPEC maintain production cut, plus no taxation.

This, is quite achievable.

This company, ROE incredibly high !!! Up to 3 rd qtr, already more than 40% !!

If Investment bank do write up, price will be higher !!!! Can touch RM 15, if pe 5x , and total for year eps 3 rgt. Crack spread, forex improving !!!

Special thanks to David LIm, confidence of OTB, KYY, and others. Incredible results!! If eps for year, around 3 rgt, few in bursa can match result, right ?

For whole year, eps, more than RM 3!!!

Broke 3 rd qtr jinx !!!! Hurrah !!!

Petron philipines recorded higher sales and turnover for Malaysia. Thus profit should be more. Heng Yuan wih higher production and high margin should show profit maybe of Rm 1 / eps for 3 rd quarter. Notice that Investment House has not issued a buy call yet. !!!

Some Funds suspected selling P Dagang and moving to better fundamentals company i.e. Heng Yuan, if this happens , re rating will occur !!

call warrant buyers, please know premium you are paying. Those priced lower, the premium generally very much higher as conversion ratio is higher, sometimes 20:1 as compared to 10:1.

well written article, Hopefully price will go up.

Mom share drop as it is x, icps. Price will be adjusted after 5 cents div, so 79 - 5, = 74 cents. So no point to change to Mom for LA and icps as lower than, should you exercise, cost price of 87 and 80 cents !!

CPS, convertible Preference share is better than LA which bears no interest at all. Difficult to say which is better, Buy Mom to get icps, at 90 cents now, then pay for 8 icps, costing 640 rgt. Then sell Mom after dividend to get back capital. Your cost is 900 less 50, or RM850. After xd, sell Mom, so use this 850 to pay for 8 icps at 8 cents for Rm640. Pening sikit !!

considering worth to convert LA to Mom , or buy Mom. After the issuance of icps, mother share adjusted ? need 10 icps to convert to Mom, or one icps + 72 cents. Since icps ex px lower than LA, 80 sen, compared to 87sen, icps value more than LA. Yes, many bought LA at higher than 30 sen, and did not change to MOm as you require 90 cents, but gets div of 10 cents.

if year eps is around 24 cents, then Masteel worth to invest as PE less than 10,

still prefer loan stock. lower conversion price of 90 sen, compared to warrant of RM 1.00 !!

Excellent sharing. Dont know why price fall when results out, but still a good share for investment by PE, ROE, FCF standard.

CC still has 1 month to go , and now at Zero premium!! Worse to worse at maturity, you will get your money back if price is at this level. No doubt lose a bit if cost is 25 cents.

When Heng Yuan result out,very soon, possible for PetronM to go up. Should CC player still want to play, maybe switch to Heng Yuan CE, longer maturity and premium less than PetronM CD.!!

Prefer CF, as less capital involved and premium difference for CE, not that much.

Prefer CF !! CE is higher price compared to CF, normally when premium not much difference, better to buy cheaper, less capital. For CG, the premium is higher than CF.

So, CF is better value buy. People buy call warrant based on premium, lesser the better, if expiry dates almost same.

CC uses less capital, and banker will pay you your profit at maturity, which is still more than 1 month. bird in hand worth two in the bush ?

CC still better . HRC moved so much, PetronM coming soon !!

CC catching up on CD. wont be surprised CC will be higher than CD

Technical charts looks good.

last time , reported on 18 th August. Probably after Friday close ?

CC still value for money compared to CD, as very little premium, 1 % compared to 30 %, though shorter maturity.

CF better buy than CG as lower premium.

conversion takes around 10 market days. Convert before the ex-date for dividend entitlement.

2 + 8 is the dividend declared if you have mother share. Atta LA is definitely better compared to warrant !! You change to Mom share at 90 sen, but you get 10 sen dividend, so nett is 80 sen !!


For warrant, exercise price is RM 1.00. So , no logic for preference to buy Warrant, loan stock is better anytime !!

why price down despite good result?

Cc better, lower premium, lower ex price. 1 % premium, CD 31 % premium.

later when people realize, they will switch from CD to CC. Value wise, CC offers more value .CD is more expensive value wise, even tho expire next year.
CC still has 7 weeks before expiry, and the smart investor will be accumulating CC before it jumps.!!!

freonsf, Atta LA is better buy compared to warrant. Results will be out soon, so good time to buy as price is so low and from TA, looking good. Many bought at 50, 40, 30 and recently 20 cents !!!!

Also , can get 10 sen div when changed to Mom at 90 cents. So only need 80 cents.!!!

cc is only 1 % premium, expiring in 7 weeks time at 6.50 to Mom . CD premium is around 38 % as ex px is 8.50, expiring Feb 2018. As warrant settled in cash, dont you think CC is better buy as it will be more volatile , whereas CD has less intrinsic value, tho more time value. Just rational thinking.

CC has better value than CD. why CD rose more ?

Atta loan undervalued compared to Atta as exercise price is 90 cents. The Loan Stock has a value of 10 cents. Conversion is at 1.00 rgt.

For those who lost a lot in buying C8, can losses be recovered by buying LCTitan call warrant, like CF? Reason, LCTitan price has dropped a lot and now stabilizing. ? Any comments ?

result, out by end August. why still hold Atta warrant. Loan stock is cheaper, and conversion price is 10 cent lower !!!!

Why dont warrant holders switch to loan stocks, LA, since it is cheaper and conversion price is 90 sen compared to 100 for warrant holders?

What are they thinking ?

IMHO, just look at the charts of Atta, and ATTa LA. Where is firm support? Many people bought at 43, then at 37, 28 and 24 cents for loan LA. Convert to Mom at 90 cents, better than the two Warrants, convert at 1.00 rgt. Look at its ATTA fundamentals, results which is quite good.

Yes, the share is in a downtrend now, and many are of the opinion LA may touch 10 cents. This is cos Atta ordinary has gone up a lot from 40 over cents.

I would say that wait for tech signal such as MACD crossing,RSI firming, Oscillator crossing, or Candlestick bullish engulfing or bullish hammer, and then decide.

I am looking forward to average down when time is right. As OTB says, Final decision to buy or not is always YOURS to make. Do not blame others. it is YOUR decision.

To me, nobody is 100% correct. OTB to me is giving good advice, BUT you must decide yourself based on the fundamentals, and the price. Many times, after the reco, the price shoot up. Only after the price go down to acceptable level, will I consider going in.

Many traders just buy without understanding the basics, otherwise how do you explain Atta WA, WB being higher priced than LA , when conversion price is 10 sen lower for the latter ?

In the case of Comcorp, he did not know the results will be not so good, so price went down. He based his reco on Break OUt.

Do you know last time, a friend made 10k in one day, just based on his belief that KPS will be a good buy.

It is not fair for non subsribers to attack him without understanding the details. If ever the people who should comment on him , is his subscribers.!! Just my humble opinion.

Big holders dont like large shares coming in from ESOS and loan conversion. Also propose to issue 2.5 b new pref shares at 8 cents.

Company fundamental very good, maybe directors will rescind the proposal after collecting at very low price and getting the money needed by company, thru the huge conversion of loan stock and warrants at 90 and 100 respectively.

If Mom can hold at 1.00, then the most loan stock can fall is 10 cents. From charts, strong support for loan stock is at 24 cents.