Petron eps for year is 1.50 rgt x Pe 8 = RM 12.00.

So Heng Yuan, complex refiner should be RM 2.40+ 1.00 ( Q4 )= RM 3.40 year , after tax eps, x Conservative PE 6x = RM 20.00.

Tomorrow should see re- rating of HRC.!!!!

People who dislike China management should consider Volvo takeover by Geely. Now Volvo on right path to profitability.

HRC is also managed well by ex Shell staff and by HRC from China that has already attained Euro 4M standard.

Other refiners all making good profit for 2017, and their PE above 10x.

for those who bought at high price, do hold on. Believe HRC price can go up as price range getting narrower, and it can go up more.

Call Warrants CD, CE and CF, is very fairly priced,very low premium, and will be cash settled few weeks after results announced. Thus hopefully price will go up.

Hope article will convince others that HRC is still worth keeping in portfolio. Very much undervalued compared to its peers.

Still have faith in HRC despite what others say.

Their ability to secure loans shows their management capability as Banks would have done due diligence b4 lending.

Today, its resilience shown by recovering fast from 12.14 to almost RM 13. Would have preferred it to go above 13.04 to signal a buy, but 12.96 good enough.

Assuming Q4 taxable, est EPS around conservative 1.00 rgt. Total Eps of 3.40 achievable. KYY mentioned went down due to growth reason and not on PE as holders afraid growth down due to maintenance and lower crack spread.

HRC growth still OK, as Q! 2018 should still comes with around 1.00 eps. This is due to crack spread still lucrative, and the refinancing could save some interest cost, and some forex gain. With huge inventory, maintenance period will not erode profit so much. SO far Dr David Lims article really helps us to understand Refining companies.

Overall, other Refiners in the world reporting increased profit like Valero, SK innovation, etc. Price closing above RM 18.00 is highly achievable.

With so many Call Warrants issued by IBs, there is still no write up by any of them on HRC. Still think CWs- CD, CE offers good value as it expires after explosive Results announced.

Just cannot understand why such strong fundamental shares like HRC can be sold down. Anyway, price may move up after Expiry of CA to CC.

Results will be known b4 end February, and strongly believe Eps will be around 3.40 rgt. Recent borrowing by HRC shows there is possibility of a Dividend being declared, should results be good.

HRC has been planning far ahead for Maintenance and Upgrading work . They have been stockpiling inventory so that they can still sell refined products whilst doing upgrading.

Crack Spread is still good for January, Rm is strengthening, so still cant fathom why people would still sell at such low price. What could be their reason ?

Still believe in HRC and buying when price bottomed out, as it is the cheapest Refinery Stock at this price.

good effort to inform investors.

Look at the Call Warrant buyers, paying hefty premium !!! If only they buy the Mother share, then it will also pull ALL the CWs. !!!

HRC 4 th quarter results will be undoubtedly good and surprise many. January about to end and so far the Average Crack spread still maintain above USD 10.

Should HRC price go down, many will see it as a really good bargain, and will raise capital to buy. As can be seen from recent CW Ex Px, fair value should be above RM 18.00

As write up stipulates, eps of 42 cents is reasonable, and with PE 10x, the TP should be around RM 4.20 at least.

Wow, the Conversion Ratio gets higher and higher !! Imagine 25x to 30 x, and Maybank Ex Px for latest CW is RM 19.00 !!

Strongly believe HRC is a very good investment, though at present undergoing momentary weakness due to profit taking, or low confidence arising from negative comments.

Depeche, I thought you are bullish on HRC.?

Please clarify what you meant by wishing those stocks to dive 90 % !!

David Lim's write up on Ann Joo very informative.

Predict price will go up since AnnJoo makes profit even when other steel players lose money due to their Hybrid Furnace which can make use of Iron Ore or Scrap iron.

2018 profit will be more if ASP of Rebar remains at January level. There should be at least 20 % upside from current price.

Nice dividend will also be announced soon as it has highest Div Policy among Steel Players.

very detailed analysis, excellent write up.

Grace Chang mentioned syndicates wants to sell and push to RM9 !! Do you think this can be achieved ?

We can observe, when price reach RM 12, there was very strong rebound. It is better for HRC to climb slow and steady than jumping high, and then sold down !!

Many blog writers are still bullish on HRC as they know all the positive facts have not changed as one can read from Dr David LIm's article.

Agree with satan 118, important , all CW buyers, defend the Mother share and be assured, fair value should be more than RM 18.00

IBs Ex Price for conversion of its new warrants should give a good indication of HRCs future price.

Felicity suspect something big brewing as Mrcb raised capital thru placement and rights issue.

Calvin Tang also bullish on Mrcb due to EDL, plus it is an election play and owns strategic valuable pieces of land.

Mrcb play will be like DRB, a GLC, whose price has already risen.

tokohM, agree, these 3 will expire just b4 result announced !!! That is why I promote the 3 most fair value CW, with low premium, and expire AFTER the results announced.

These CD,CE,CF have low premium and have gearing effect, as compared to others with higher conversion ratios and high Exercise Price of 18,and 24 rgt.

Results of 4 th quarter assuming 24 % tax, estimated at 1.00rgt. So for year is 3.40 rgt. HRC has already touched 19.20, but never closed a RM 18.00.

Latest Call Warrant has Ex Px of 18.80 rgt. Hope HRC will touch this level just b4 CNY, to give fat Ang Pow to those who knows HRC fundamentals has Never changed!!

Even at 19.20 rgt, PE still below 6x !!!! Like KYY said, name me another share that is better than HRC in terms of Eps, Roe, etc.

Bank borrowngs by HRC shows Banks confident on HRC business and ability to repay.

Could be a move to give dividends to give confidence to share holders.

KYY said HRC has no change in fundamentals , yet price fell so much.

Predict more buying in the morning after Dr David Lim's article on Crack spread allays fear of lower spread.

As mentioned in Part 8, more positive factors. As most weak holders have presumably sold, price should be able to climb, with bouts of profit taking.

Should price able to close at RM18 or above, then uptrend resumes.

A fair estimation of total eps for year is 2.40 + 1.00(after tax )= 3.40 rgt. Assuming a low PE of 5x, will reach RM 17, at least.

Call Warrants CD, CE, CF still offers value as compared to others after CG.

Amazing , some of the Call warrants are at a discount !!

A very conservative estimate !!

Due to probability of tax at 24 %.

Bullish engulfing, and all other indicators like RSI, MACD, Stochastics all show bullish signs.

Monday, probably will gap up. Short term, hope it goes beyond RM 19.00.

At this price, PE around 5.5x, and the Net Eps after tax of RM 3.40 for year. Net after tax eps of RM 1.00 for 4 th quarter.

Please read Dr David LIm's write up on HRC, Part 8. Detailed analysis shows Net after tax EPS for year estimated at around RM 3.40.

HRC has touched RM 19.20 before going down to RM 16.30. Believe very conservative PE of say 5.5x, will give figure of RM 19.00.

However, without doubt HRC will go beyond this price, as most weak sellers probably have exited market.

Those cant afford buying ordinary shares, do try Call Warrants of which, value for money with reasonable premium is CD, CE, and CF. They have less than 5% premium, and matures after results known..!!

Excellent article to dispel all hearsay about crack spread going down. Fair estimate of after tax eps for year is around 3.40 rgt.

Using very conservative PE of 5, Price is RM17.00, 6x, price is RM 20.00

About CW, still believe value for money, with reasonable premium is CWs - CD, CE and CF. CB is really undervalued !!

Monday, for sure gap up !! Hoping HRC will go beyond RM 19.00, so that most of us will recover our losses, especially for those too stunned to cut loss !!!

Wow, rebound was unexpected as some cautious of - dead cat bounce.!! Thomas Han, double bottom means it hit the bottom, say `12 rgt, then later again 12 rgt, and moved up. its the reverse of Double top.

Many Call Warrant exploded, especially CF, jumped from .355 to 0.62 !!! From TA point of view, formation is Bullish Engulfing, which means Monday will probably move up. !!

RSI moved up, Macd crossing, Stochastics crossing, all are bullish signs. As HRC has touched 19.20, believe that it can move up as weak sellers gone. However, it has never closed at RM 18.00 !!!

Thus, hope its fundamentals of 3.40 eps for year, and a very low 5x PE, will make it go to its Conservative value of at least 17.00 rgt., if not more.!!

If you watch carefully, the lowest for the first part of the day always in the morning, but in the afternoon, it will be lower still.

Today, if it does not close lower than 11.40, then hopefully HRC will .have meaningful rebound.

Latest Call Warrant is -CO, and the Exercise price is RM 18 !! Before that it was RM 24. Overall the IBs bullish on HRC.

When shares on uptrend, worth to consider CWs due to gearing effect. Conversion ratio of more than 10:1 is less sensitive to price going up.

Believe those CWs , maturity after results announced, by end February, worth to consider.

She is able to predict HRC will fall to 9 rgt due to major syndicate selling. How does she know that, unless she has access to the syndicate.

Hopefully first day of rebound after all weak sellers have exited.

Fundamentals dont lie. HRC has eps of 3.40 up to 3 rd qtr. Estd eps of 4 th qtr is v conservative is RM1.00.

At RM 13.60, PE is only 4x.!!!! So far in the news, there is no fundamental change in HRC. Low crack spread in Mogas 95, offset by higher margin in Diesel and Jet fuel. A high growth share does not deserve this low PE..

With higher Crude oil, there is inventory gain, and with RM up, forex gain. The only possible reason is due to Margin Call force selling, or those speculating on higher prices and playing Contra.

Very soon it will hit bottom, maybe around Rm 12, then rebound will be fantastic as the downturn. Sellers spooked and panic when heard HRC margin reduce greatly, which is untrue.

One indicator of bottoming is a v low RSI, low MACD and low Stochastics below 20%. A short body hammer with long tail followed by white candle may signal a turning point.

Crisis can be opportunity. Easier to buy in downtrend where many sellers. the A to M, N Call Warrants issued by 5 IBs could be a reason for the fall.

Be greedy when others fear, so good to average down Mom rather than CW.

One call warrant has EX Price of RM 24 !!! So IBs as a whole still bullish on HRC. !!

jackfruit, crack spread is still high. Do check your facts. Read Dr David LIm article.

Kenanga in todays tech highlight stated major support at Rm 12.60. Resistance at 15.15 rgt.

From observation, Company warrants close to expiry will go down, e.g. Gadang-20 cents, MKH. 10 cents. IBs try to avoid losing money on their CWs, or paying out more on Expiry as it is cash settled.

It is advantageous for them if Mother share, aka Ordinary share gets lower when the CWs going to mature. You can note that normally they will create panic by withdrawing their buying quote from 4.30 onwards, .eg. CF.They are the Market Maker.

If all investors know their trick and concentrate on supporting HRC mother share, disregarding their CWs, then price will go up and CWs accordingly.

Do Buy when price has bottomed out, i.e. RSI, Mov ave, Macd, Stochastic, start to move up, or when hammer formed after sell off, with confirming white candle.

HRC fast approaching the grossly oversold position. Margin calls and Contra , all finished ? Then only HRC can go up as weak holders all sold out.

Those CW buyers wanting to ave down, better to buy Mom as when Mom goes up, CW also goes up.

I have done my part, buying HRC ordinary shares instead of CW though I have lots of position in CW and losing thousands !!!

HRC fundamentals has not changed, crack spread still healthy.

Eps for year will be around 3.60. At 13.80rgt, the PE is 3.8 x !!!!

Very low PE for a very profitable company !!

Tai KT, Call warrants value depend on the Mother share !! You can support all the CWs, but if HRC ordinary shares go down, ALL the Call Warrants will go down !!

Conversely, if all Call Warrant buyers concentrate on buying HRC Ordinary shares, then the Mom price will recover gradually . This will then pull up ALL the CWs.!!!

This is a better strategy to counter the IBs, who will lose lots if HRC price is high, as their CWs has higher value, and they have to pay out more.

Many caught by sudden drop of HRC shares. Good strategy is to gather some funds, then buy mother share, NOT call warrants, when the price stabilizes, i.e. small difference is price and oversold.

When HRC ordinary shares recover, all CW will automatically readjust to the higher level.

Am selling all shares that are still profitable, and then average down on HRC ordinary shares.

Believe that averaging down on Call Warrants losses may not be right action though most of us lost a lot on these CW.

I would agree that IB suffers if HRC price high. Up till now, NO Investment Bank has written on Heng Yuan !!!

So when sell down occurs, they, IB create panic, and aggravate situation by force selling those with margin account.

HRC fundamentals still same. No such thing as crack spread down !! Dr David Lim has already done analysis. Only negative is whether HRC has to pay tax on 4 th quarter earnings of around 1.20 rgt.

Those can afford , support Mother share, then CW automatically will follow.

Definitely will rebound, as no other company with such good fundamentals. It does not deserve this sell down. Which company makes more than 1 billion/ year for a 300 million shares. ?

HRC price now is good. People pay good money to have this number for their car. !

Believe it can go up, from 1688, maybe to 1888, or better still 1988 before Chinese New Year !! After all , it already touches 1920.

Even with tax, total eps should still be around 3.50 or 3.60. PE 6x, price will be around RM 20.00

Call warrant CF, has been pushed down and is value for money now.

HRc is not like other China company - like HB global, CSL, etc where many lost money, including me.

Even though they have money, call for rights issue.

HRC auditors can be trusted and management mostly by Ex Shell directors.

Your opinion greatly discourage people who might consider HRC and deprive them of a chance to recover their losses.

Super investor KYY and OTB wont simply put his money if HRC is not the best company in KLSE.!!!!

CW investors of YTL, please be careful. Many lost thousands on the last CW, esp C8, C9, and those expiring end Dec.2017. Main reason is price of Ytl on downtrend from early part of the year. Price fell below the exercise price, thus the CW has Zero value.

I believe it was purposedly pushed down, and now after the CW has expired, the price was pushed up again despite Fundamentals has not changed. Lost tens of thousands on these Call Warrants.

I think other CW good to consider - like Gamuda C 39, Maybank C34.

Newbie, most of us here are Die Hard Heng YUan investors. We are very confident that this is just a minor hiccup.

An army cannot just advance without consolidating its supplies, logistics, etc. HRC has advanced much, and needs to rest before ascending again. Oil Price is the highest for 3 years.

Do tell me another share that has better fundamentals than HRC.

While waiting for HRC, maybe can consider Maybank C-34, and Gamuda C 39. Gamuda has a high chance of break out if you examine the charts.

Maybank CW 34 offers incredible value. Worth to consider.

As Dr David Lim has written, all positive factors are intact. Only thing is whether there will be tax credit still available. However, even if there is 25 % tax , off eps of around 1.40, then 4 th quarter profit will be around RM 1.00.

So total year eps is 2.40 + 1.00 is 3.40. Taking PE of 6x, it will still be higher than 19.20, the highest price reached.

As I have mentioned, the CW after the results announced will be better. CD, CE, CF offers better value and lower premium compared to others.

Be aware of CW that is seldom traded, or has very low volume as it may be difficult to sell when you need it.

Value for money go for CW- CA, CD, CE and CF. Premium very low, around 1 %. Others the premium is higher tho the price is lower.

Noticed that Gamuda CW 39 moving nicely.

HRC has all positive factors, - Forex gain, inventory gain, Crack spread still high, - ave USD 9+, low tax,

At current price for PE less than 5, its still a very,very, good bargain !!

3.60 x pe 6. Rugi , kalau tak beli .

CW after CH, has very high conversion ratio. I still think CK is too over priced.

Other CW that can make money is Vitrox CW, Gamuda C39 and AnnJoo- CW. Ann Joo has not really moved yet despite bullish Steel Sector.

Profited from Vitrox CD, Gamuda - about to break even. Gamuda will surely go up and the CW - C 39, is very cheap with long maturity.

Overall, all loses for past year covered by playing Heng Yuan Call Warrant, of which more is to come as HRC price is still undervalued.

3.60 eps x Pe 6, and still low price. !!!

So far, all Investment Banks have ran away from Heng Yuan. Am still wondering what is/are the reasons.

HRC has the potential to catch up close to Petronas Dagang price as its eps is much higher and PE will go up as profits become consistent

Kindly check which plant is older. To upgrade PETRON refinery costs much more than for Euro 4 upgrade for HRC. HRC plant is not as old as Petron . It is a complex refinery compared to simple refinery like Petron.

Capacity of HRC is higher than Petron. Both will gain from current Oil price, Petron can declare higher dividend whereas HRC needs money for the upgrade.

Price potential wise, believe that HRC results will be exremely good and price may go to 20 rgt. - Eps 3.60 x PE 6x.

OTB subscribers all gain from his reommendations lah. Nobody blame him when he sold HRC as it met his TP.

KLSE market is made up of many types of investors/ traders/ speculators. Some, if not many are ignorant of Rationale/ reason why the share is worth to buy. Explains why CK is over priced due to irrational exuberance with a very high premium. !!!

HRC has many many good reasons to justify a higher price !!Crack Margin spread is still high, above USD 9 for Diesel, Jet fuel, Mogas 95, Naptha, Propylene, etc.

Ringgit appreciating, thus Forex gain. Brent, WTI all went up due to Iran protests and Cold spells in US, Europe, etc. This will result in huge Inventory gain,due to its huge inventory as HRC uses FIFO.

Concur with kYY that 4 th qtr eps could be higher than 3 rd quarter eps of 1.20 rgt. Thus total eps is 3.60 rgt.

Taking a PE of 6x, you will gain by buying at this level. Should PE be re-rated due to consistent profit growth, price will go higher.

Mr Koon, we really appreciate your sharing, on shares and on principles of life.

Reminds me of the saying- to err is only human, but to forgive others is divine. Also politics is important and we all hope for a fair and just government, free of Corruption.

In the case of Heng Yuan- HRC, sometimes even tho we know the fundamentals, yet because of fear of losing money, we are tempted to sell so as not to lose money. This is the case on Friday when it dived from 19.20 to 16.30

However, I would agree and confident that 4 th quarter will be a good quarter for HRC, despite the possibility of HRC having to pay tax on its profit for the whole year.

Total eps for year is conservatively at RM3.60, and conservative PE at 6, will already make nice profit from present Rm 17.14.

A word of caution to Call Warrant traders. I notice at closing there is wide gap between buyers and sellers. If HRC price rising, the selling price will be jacked up much higher by IB so that difficult for you to buy. Conversely, when HRC price going down, the buying price is very low quoted by Inv Bankers as they are the Market Makers which can manipulate the prices.

Call warrant CK is overpriced as its premium is over 30 % compared to others with low premium of less than 3 %. Bargain CW are- CA, CD, CE and CF. Hope this will help those with low capital to profit on HRC.

BY believing in HRC, I have recovered tens of thousands of losses from the market. Fundamentals of HRC has not changed, in fact it is stronger now, with higher Crude prices and cold weather overseas.

Monday may see price going up as HRC has stopped falling, and slowly moving up.

Good closing. After two days fall, today up and shows small candle. Storm affecting UK, France plus Iran factor causing Crude price to go up.

HRC will get good Inventory gain, as they have huge stocks, which if they sell, will reduce borrowings to large extent. Diesel price up, Crack spread still maintain at around USD 9+, as well as for other products like Jet Fuel, Kerosene, Mogas 95, etc.

Our currency strengthening, so will have forex gain.

Noticed that for CE and CF, Investment Bankers Kenanga, RHB pushed up the selling price so that quite difficult to buy as price difference is high. These call warrants quite a bargain as very low premium and maturity after results out.

Hope HRC plrice will go up on Monday. Whole year conservative EPS of 3.60rgt is definitely achievable!! PE of 6x is also very very low for a high growth company with ROE of above 60%.

Price has already touched 19.20 rgt., but has never closed beyond RM 17.96 as there is strong resistance for 18 rgt closing.

For charts not to remain toppish, Price must close above17.96.!!

Call Warrant CD seldom traded ? Rhb IB as market maker should give B/S quotes..

Anyway, fair value at this price should be around 31 to 32 cents.

Tomorrow price may go down, but then later, towards closing may rebound. Monday is generally bullish !
Have calculated the break even value of CK warrant. Conversion Ratio: 18:1, 18 x .715= 12.87. Exercise price is 10.50, Add 10.50 = 23.37 rgt.

At Expiry, 24/7/2018, if HRC less than RM23.37, then you will lose your money !!!

A prudent investor will change to CI, or CH which has less premium, only around 6% compared to around 38 % !!!!

CD, CE, CF better still, less premium and more sensitive to HRC price movement.

Is this high premium of CK showing potential of HRC, can touch 24 rgt in few months time ?

Remember,HRC is a complex refiner, Diesel , Kerosene, crack spread maintained at USD 9+, and Motor Gasoline 95, Mogas 95 sustainable at above USD 8. Ringgit strengthening, Crude Oil Prices up, thus Inventory gain.

RM 3.60 Eps x 6 PE =21 rgt !!!

Up till now, I still wonder why all the Investment Banks keep silent on Heng Yuan?

There is absolutely no write up or official comments on HRC !!! Only TA securities made a comment that the buying was overdone.

I believe HRC fundamentals are still there and has not changed. Should HRC use tax credit to offset taxation, eps for the year is conservatively estimated at 3.60 rgt.

WTI, and Brent price at a high, Mogas 95 stable, Diesel, Kerosene up, thus HRC as complex refiner still enjoy stable Crack spread on average of USD 9+.

Those playing CW, premium will increase when Mom price drops. So CK will be above 40% !!!