purple70
why is the price up today?

Investor stim pasal bonus - beli sebelum Ex

Ive sold all my stake cum-dividend and have registered a handsome gain although on hindsight I shouldn't. I'm fairly convinced that it's overvalued compared to other financial institutions.

I noticed that my usual Petron station was shut for god-knows-what for more than a day! Is that what you're referring to?

Out of boredom with the market, I bought some shares at 4.53.

AlphaAdventurer - "... it intends to maintain the listing status of Apollo on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia." Meaning that Apollo has the possibility of getting privatized in the future...?

I think the implication is that the new owner will pay 5.80 per share (as compelled by law) but if nobody wants to sell, it'll just continue business as a listed co. If however everyone sells their shares to the new owner then it will need some time to redistribute and attain the public spread as required for listing.

So perhaps 5.80 is take it or leave it as they are not enthusiastic to swallow more.

Is 5.80 cheap, right price or expensive? Think about the following ...

1) FX RATE - The offerors are Singaporeans. The SGD/MYR exchange rate has increased over the years to 3.5273 (Today BNM FX site). It's peanuts for the investors who have deep pockets.

2) INFLATION - The world including Malaysia has been subject to high inflation over the years, accelerated over the recent months. I checked my spreadsheet which indicated that I've sold Apollo shares at 6.25 a piece back in March 2016. This international business with only 80m shares should be worth a lot more today (Shares of companies are not monetary claims but instead a claim on the business model of generating revenue as well net assets including real estate.

Based on the above it can be irrefutably concluded that the price is too low

My instincts tell me good news but never rely on a man's intuition.

Any guesses what the news will be?

Many companies can generate good profits. A main challenge that follows is the conversion of that profits into cash. So perhaps BK & KLK seem to have some difficulties in this. High up in the list of these great companies, should be to appease shareholders either in the form of generous dividends or capital gains.

I really like the active share buyback that BK undertakes. That's money well spent. Despite that (albeit on hindsight) they shouldn't have conducted the buybacks when it was lofty during the covid period - a ton of cash vanished.

Another major money pit was the huge premium BK paid to acquire Chemical Co of M'sia in exchange for precious cash. Maybe as shareholders we may never know the full rationale for this other than what was officially discussed.

Ok I've rambled enough.

Ok I stand corrected, it should be attributable to equity holders of the co i.e. 491m. But still it can pay the full 90 sen (354m) or perhaps as a compromise say 80 sen to appease shareholders. There are other companies that are in a worse-off financial position but declare large dividends - shareholders love them hence the share price trade at higher PEs - like Apollo for instance.

Management should get out of their comfort zone to manage funds efficiently and ensure that shareholders are happy.

While conservative is admirable, being excessively conservative is not. 90sen dividend is indeed sustainable. Assess for yourself against these numbers ...

Net Profit 2023 = 1086m
Retained earnings (distributable reserve) = 5613m
Cash = 2717m
90sen dividend = 354m

Obviously my prayers were not answered.

Dear Lord - As you may be aware, dividend announcement is around the corner. Please guide the board's mind with rationality.

Tell them that although the EPS may have dropped drastically, the net profit of RM1086m is more than enough to repeat another 90 sen dividend amounting to 354m to your patient shareholders without even touching the brought forward reserves. Do the right thing - we are waiting for this Christmas gift.

I'm losing RM2 per share as my average inventory of Petron shares = 6.64. But so far I'm not losing sleep over it.

My loss does not consider the considerable amount of dividends received over the years. Also the prospect of possible future capital gains is giving me the excitement of living.

Told ya

If the current price is any indication, i think this quarterly results will be BAD!

Sslee - you're spot on again on Petron's income (give or take a few dollars)!

Yes investors don't appreciate Petron which is why I advocate payment of large dividends

Deekay - you be the judge. The following extract from Note 35 last annual report ...

"The earnings per share is calculated by dividing the profit for the financial year attributable to owners of the parent by the weighted average number of ordinary shares with voting rights in issue during the financial year EXCLUDING treasury shares held by the Company ...

The reason why distributing treasury shares will cause EPS to drop is because EPS = earnings divided by shares issued NET of treasury shares.

When EPS drops, the fairly constant PE relationsip will result in share price to drop. It's just a sacrifice for 1 quarter and then going forward we will enjoy better EPS as well as dividends if the performance is maintained.

No more cash then don't pay dividends. It's a worthwhile sacrifice.

The only difference is that shareholders now have shares in their personal possession instead of in a company that they are part owners. However the repercussion is that share price and EPS will drop.

I was hoping that the co would just retain the treasury shares instead of distributing them after all that buyback efforts. This would adversely affect EPS.

Noted TQ also to Dehcomic01

TQ Sslee

Don't get too excited. They could be playing on your anticipation of a good quarterly to pump and dump.

The aggressive sharebuyback is good but I think the management should also consider paring down the sizable borrowings as interest rates have increased and the prospect of further increase would make a big dent on the bottomlines.

Share buyback is a great booster to confidence as it possibly indicates that management with inside knowledge is of the opinion that the share price should be higher than that dictated by the market.

The disadvantage however is that there'll be less cash available for dividends.

BTW the only ship that may arrive at an airport is a spaceship haha

All this great talk about stamping out corruption remains just that - TALK and nothing more. We need dogs that bite for a change.

Anyone thinks that the budget will be favorable for Sports Toto? The share price so low - can't afford any bad news.

Good for B. Kawan & KLK that the govt has decided to bear the B. Plant burden.

With almost double NTA over share price perhaps a takeover with asset-stripping in mind

It'll take sometime before the full impact of EV kicks in. If Petron is impacted, so will PetDag. The Gov maybe shooting itself on the foot with this EV move. The old batteries will present an environmental headache.

In the meantime I hope this paid Board/Management is anticipating the impact and taking steps to adapt to the realities. Are they planning to continue to proudly announce the number of stations they're opening annually? Do they have something up their sleeves as to how to make money the network of stations?

Maybe with the high NTA with a lot not reflecting the current market value, the devious ones may just keep the prices low & then peanuts over and above to takeover/privatise the company (Like what Canone did to Kian Joo).

Subsidi bersasar is not good for Petron as it'll mean less consumption/demand of petrol and less sales at the pump. Don't know how it'll be operationalised.

This dumb management should realise that it should start to pay a lot more dividends. Why? 2 reasons - because it can afford to and to make up for the poor share price performance.

I was thinking of taking profit as well but it's tempered with the following considerations:
a) the impending generous dividend &
b) the massive inflation that has eroded our MYR (despite what BNM or Govt says) which makes the Apollo shares cheap in real terms

Let me know your thoughts about the above.

This is a moment to be treasured. A pleasant celebratory feeling. Never mind if it's only for a fleeting moment. At least we've experienced it.

TQ 3iii.
Wouldn't it be reasonable (& nice) if the board pledges a dividend pay out rate of 50% EPS?

This co only has 80m shares in issue. So it's rare.

Steep drop in crack spread but still on positive territory.

I thought when price of oil goes up the crack spread also goes up. Looks like no such correlation exists.

Yes yes total dividends = 35 sen per share. They've done it in the past i.e. dividends declared on 2 separate dates but going ex and payment on the same date.

I'm deep out of the money sitting on large capital loss but slowly and surely recovering from the generous dividends.

I love this management!

Now we have a Myanmar problem

Again following the acquisition of CCM at excessively high price, KLK like sugar daddy is acquiring Boustead Plantation, a good-for-nothing at a ridiculously high price of 1.55 per share.

Note that the highest price this BP had reached over the past 5 years was about 1.15 until today perhaps because somebody got wind of the acquisition, it climbed up to 1.37.

Since EV is looming, Petron is in danger of becoming extinct and share price extremely low relative to earnings, large dividend payouts would be the best balm for shareholders.

With half-year earnings at 56 per share coupled with previous years cumulative earnings net of dividends, it should be no problem to declare 50 sen dividends. Unfortunately it's dividends are constipated.

TQ Sslee for your astute analysis.
15.6 sen EPS is decent enough. I've come across a host of other companies with pathetic earnings but lofty share price. This big elephant in the room is being ignored

Why the big drop when the crack spread shows an increase?

A nice little family tree is growing on the board. Chairman/Exec Director's daughter at 37 is promoted from Asst VP to Exec Director! A very very fast track indeed. She must be awesome.

Maybe a takeover is in the cards.

ocbc - what you said about special donation is an eyeopener to me & probably true. Hypocrites!

High EPS, Low PE & High NTA = Sunset industry?

Despite Amanah selling in gobs, price climbing quite steeply. For that to happen, Demand > Supply.

So who's buying?

Some share goreng taking place ah? Amanah Saham is selling like mad. Wonder what's happening

I rely on handsome dividends to claw me out of an unimpressive overall capital losses

Delighted with the share buyback. I hope they then do not simply give it away with bonus issue