TL;DR, if u do ur DCF on high Forward PE counters, and you don’t find that you are getting a discount, then better stay away.

U r paying over priced prospect.

U heard about DCF right? What about Forward PE?

Some counters trade at very high PE, as result of good “growth” prospect. Very high Forward PE. Anticipated future earnings. So, even growth turns out to be true, Pe will slowly drops as earnings materialise. but if the market is willing to trade with previous high PE remains mystery. But, u know what happens with the growth counters that do not materialise their earnings.

I believe in picking counters with what I believe is strong earning trading at PE not too far into future. Low side of this sector is around 10-15, high side is between 20-25. Vitrox Trading at PE 40. That’s 40 years into future if everything remains the same. I think people is doing DCF with the growth rate of 2.5x for next 8 -12 quarters. U can look at how penta grown from 50c to Rm5. That’s why they come to that PE. If I enter at the point 15 years into future and some people wants to buy at 45 years into future, I will be more that happy to sell.

If vis really penetrates and gaining traction in North Asia market, I guess it is more to come. Half of penta’s successful will be enough for me. Market will happily trade 30-40x into future and that’s the time I will sell.

then vitrox and penta mar super value if you put the PE "should" be around 15++...

@sincere_analyst...kk, u r here for self praise. Hope you can do that everyday.

sincere_analyst...please do enlighten...I will go hv a study on it and share my opinion...

What I'm prompting here is the reason you sell and the reason you buy...

I hv reduced my position to just Dufu, Armada, Lionind and VIS...

DearFion$$$, I hold quite abit since last year. And average down with 0.42 and 0.33. When it dropped further to 0.31, I start to think I might made a mistake somewhere. But nope, last QR is consistent with what i'm anticipated. 2 consecutive good QR and push revenue past 20 million per QR, it won't be trading at RM1.20 anymore. Vis will be doing at PE18 above.

I'm even more excited with next QR result. Stay tuned.

Congrats congrats...
I’m curious how would u feel when it gets up to RM1.20?

Revenue n debts 2 years ago is how much? How much it has improved?

I don’t think it’s fair to judge CEO performance based on market price.
Market can be stupid sometimes

I think that would be 0.65-0.67 range.

Congrats super panda. Well done

If it's really good news, they will only sell when market over reacts.

E.g. Say profit for FY18 is RMXXXmil, for what's the profit and prospect worth, would be RM1. If market trades it at RM1.3 with assumption that performance of FY19 and even better FY20 will be better, I will sell. Makes no sense for people inside to sell below a price that they know it's worth.

The reason is, the numbers has not materialize yet. And if market wants to buy and over priced stuff, I will be more that willing to sell.

This company no business since last Sept. No inventories conversion.

Good stuff share with you guys!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1mo6Y__yDhF7koxJWk5AWqfqumnYVnmg7

Chart 1 is (Revenue, Trade Receivables) VS (Inventories, Trade Payable)
Chart 2 is Changes of Inventories, Receivables and Payable
Chart 3 is amount converted. E.g. Converted Inventories = (Last Total Inventories + Cash Used in Inventories) - Current Total Inventories.

Chart 3 is interesting. Nov-Jan every year. Vis literally go holiday. Start working Feb to Apr. Peak at May-Jul before slight decline in Aug-Oct. In FY18, QR (Feb-Apr) inventories conversion is highest. They normally converts about 1-2 million worth of inventories in previious QR (Feb-Apr). But this year, they converted about 5 million worth of inventories. And i'm forecasting bigger inventory conversion in May-Aug, FY18 as purchase of inventories is the highest ever. Looking forward to higher increased trade receivables and revenue.

And from last quarter report, there is increase of 50% of revenue from North Asia. And if you guys can figure out how big is the market from North Asia. *Wink.

Pushhhhh....1.20! Then next leap will be 1.4-1.5 range

Anyway that retailer like us can do anything in that aspect?

It doesn't sound like the business is not doing well. It's more like the management prioritize themselves more.

Super panda, only 1.20-1.30?

I tot 1.6,1.7. At least PE 9-10.

10x upside? Which sector? Which counter?

Having that said mike, wouldn’t the best strategy is to push the price down lower, and only release all the goodies after they hv secured those free shares?

That would mean additional 20% gain if it reaches 90sen. Equivalent of additional 1 million share worth.

Lagi gek sim...

I write and buy no one care.
U write and buy up few cent.

Faster write and buy more. Thank you.

How many is that?

Maybe that’s why, 50 lots 5 times won’t do shit unlike one shot 250...

How much total lot that u collect?

Wa pia...I hold for more than 1 yr to make that 5%. Superpanda hold for few days already make 5%. Damm unfair...

Wanna buy then just buy...mai talk 3 talk 4 and cock.

world cup over liao...investor will start focusing on KLSE....

Funny le, they issue so much shares under incentive plan. What’s the point of having lotsa shares trading at price next to toilet paper.

Two possibilities, 1) is executing ditch protocol and cash out. 2) Lock n load preparing for bull run.

https://m.hrmamerica.com/hr-news/the-pros-and-cons-of-offering-employee-stock-options-28492.aspx

Good read on ESOS

The one dollar is the carrot for the employees to drive the revenue up. And the market will respond accordingly as the market has no memory of this ESOS few months later.

The smart thing about this move is, they don’t increase company expenses to reward the staff. They get to keep the money and the market will pay the staff fat bonus.

Mneo, to reflect how stupid are,why not wait at 5 Sen? If it has potential to fall to 5sen. 1 sen also I don’t want.

Basically, what u will do after u collect at 0.50 is scream lionind is gonna be lion king la correct? That time I’m gonna come here say collect at 25sen just for sake of being stupid like you. Lol.

If go up, one side will talk shit. If go down, the other side will talk shit.

conclusion is, this thread is full of shit. =D

Cilaka...GKENT hit limit up...dammmmmm

30% from my inaction

If a solid breakout, then where does it go?

Market wanna collect cheap before pushing it up?

Superb99, chartist TP set how much? Resistance broken. Next support dimana?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JTbkzAJtmEJBPpuRmIWtOhs_Be10VF8N/view?usp=sharing

Discovered something funny with VIS. They literally not working between Nov-Jan and collect debts for revenue. They buy inventories but they don't use them. It's only start converting inventories in Feb to Apr. And seriously do work between May - Jul, and start to slow down again in Aug-Oct before totally stop working in Nov-Jan.

Based on the graph, they worked alot harder in Feb-Apr if compared to other Q1.

The inventory turnover is highest between Feb- Apr. QR2 should be pretty good.

@mikekim, i'm not an account or auditor.

Can you explain further on how market capitalization affect loan approval?
Do u mean listed company are allowed to use market capitalization as collateral?

I think there is a monkey trying to create panic sell...Not very successful I see...

I'm gonna queue at 95sen and see if i can intercept a few of his share.

Need to learn abit of TA, so that can take advantage difference between weekly high and low...
The thing is, trying to time the market statistically doesn't perform very well...

tsaihoo, if he guai guai hold from 0.45 he would hv made addition 0.005 and save some transaction fee...That's well documented in Intelligent Investor.

Superb99 Short term TP how much?

I’m not TA fella, don’t know how to set TP

TA for near short term trading. FA for long term.

If FA can project 5X increase in revenue, price confirm go up. But TA will decide how far.

U mean profit? Hard to tell...

If awesome earning prospect, PE 18-20...that’s probably already priced in future earning.

Okok prospect should fair around this price.

Not so good prospect like MMSV now, PE about 10ish...

And I suspect those warrant are from the bonus issue... he is probably holding 4million shares in Visdynamics...

That’s 2.4% of total market cap...

I don’t know if I’m reading this right...
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5850133

After disposing 100lots, he still hv 1100lots...

If he had collected them at 13sen low...
Damm... he is rich...

Just difficult to identify current PE is how far forward it is into future earnings. If current price has priced in it's future earning, then better QR won't increase the price alot. But if current price has not price in current account receivables to revenue in coming QR. Market might get over excited and push all the way up.

Difficult to say la...Conservatively 0.65...But I think it all depends on the market...
If market willing to trade VIS like how they trade MMSV, easily RM1.2. Because account receivables of VIS now is higher than account receivables for MMSV. The combine account receivables and revenue of VIS are almost equivalent to MMSV in Mac 17 performance and MMSV was trading at RM1.2 before shooting up to RM 2.

In this business, there are connection between Revenue, Total Inventories, Account Payables, and Account Receivables. It's something like Revenue, Account Receivables = F(Account Payables, Total Inventories). Just abit more mathematics and should have better picture of the business dynamics.

I made a quick comparison between MMSV and VIS.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HWDgrWff233jfRXRMEnBIUtl1_tKD4qD/view?usp=sharing

let me know what variables in QR that you think can predict revenue of this company.
To me, MMSV and VIS hv similar business dynamics. It's just at different phase. Hopefully, VIS will rocket like MMSV too.

Because what it's worth is very subjective my friend...

A dollar made by Armada isn't worth the same as a dollar made by anybody else.

It's the same as how come your one hours of your used to do the same job isn't worth the same across each company.

WB should be 29c liao...faster!

u enter at what price?

Lai lai lai...0.60 today, 0.7 end of this month h, 1.10 end of this year...

Anyway, any of u interested with any other counter let me know...I will squeeze it through my script and put them into chart for u...

Maybe I can also learn a thing or two. Thanks.

so far my method pretty good in making stories in ind-prod. Cos inventories turnover is 90days to 180days....so, is reduction in inventories normally followed by reduction in trade receivables and revenue...good to know if it’s time to cut loss...haven’t develop a method to identify when it will go up or when it’s over priced. That one need to study TA.

This one abit tough. Cos, the revenue depends on how much they pump out and charter rate. These things are not reported in QR.

I wonder what’s Armada’s plan with their OSV.