Game changer

Your portfolio must have game changers.

Dynamic investing

Ignore TTB

Rip

Hibiscus is advanced stuff
Newbies stay away.

just like road concessions....Ekovest, Gamuda, UEM....all done like that.

no doubt, the EPC profits is lumpy and comes to an end after a few years. Of course cannot employ a simple PE on the earnings.

But, will give a boost to the share price and allow lower capital commitment by Jaks.

Probably how all IPPs are being done.

The JV don't show loss.
In fact the JV IRR is in the mid teens.

13 chapters of Dynamic Investing....

Now, put all to good use in Jaks.

the bankers think it is bankable...and indeed signed the financing already...

skepticism is good...but inability to take risks, you will never be super investor.

gains always come from taking good risks...and all in when you got good hands.

Its dynamic investing....much easier than speculating.

It can fail, just like any project can fail...but it cannot get over valued at this floor stage....plenty of stages to come...EPC, IPP, Listing and more.........


OrlandoOil > Jan 14, 2017 07:40 PM | Report Abuse

Now Jak is almost fully valued liao.

Indian IPP?

Indians all talk.....

But Vietnamese will go places, and this will be successful.

its business, then people then numbers.....
the real question is....what you think of this second generation Jaks?

they look competent and ambitious.

IPP at matured stage is for retirement funds
Jaks at this stage is for dynamic investing.

A game changer
Like it changed Francis Yeoh's life.

the project is full stream ahead already
no turning back

Super investors has 3 characteristics.....they receive new information, receptive to new ideas and confidence in own abilities.................................and also buy Jaks. lol

According to Public Bank report, the IRR of the project is in the mid teens.
If you can find an IPP with IRR in the mid teens, you can easily list it and get a good premium.

Because the parties have to find the golden mean, every thing affects every thing else.

the Vietnam government part of the puzzle is the tariffs, not the EPC margin. The tariffs have been agreed.

The bankers are there to make sure the project is viable based on the Budget.

its all in the budget and the cashflows....and the bankers have to agree. After all, the bankers are financing 70% of the deal....the bankers have to make sure their interests are protected.

Success of any JV depends on both parties happy and no cheating. CPECC will also over bill./...it is all in the Budget.

According to Public Bank report, a previous IPP budget for similar plant in Vietnam which has gone online is even higher

Since, this is not a pioneer project and got precedent already, the bankers and investors are more willing. Tariffs and attitude of Vietnam government is the crucial piece in the whole puzzle.....not the EPC margin.

Hai Duong IPP - FCF NPV at 12% equity cost is RM 1.096 billion
value to Jaks @30% $ 329 million (or 75 sen share)

gains from EPC Contract US$ 91 million or $ 409.5 million
discounted value to Jaks $ 298 million (or 68 sen per share)


discounting a cash flow at 12% has factored in some risk elements.
The real gain is more than 75 sen and 68 sen respectively.



so, if you add current NTA $ 1.20 + .75 + .68 + X factor.,
the worth of the Company share is $ 2.63 plus X factor

correction

OF COURSE, NTA CAN ALSO BE REPLACED VALUE OF JAKS WITHOUT THE IPP + .75 + .68 + X factor.

but this is a fixed one ....left hand , right hand....arranged marriage.

It will close Monday at 50.5

but what has paper returns from paper portfolios got to do with real returns and real money?

I think, very little.

and even in the case of real returns and real money, what has the past got to do with the future? If it is as simple as a straight line extrapolation, the CFA would not have to organise a Certificate Program in Investment Performance Measurement.

in shares of long gestation period such as this, it is easy to be too early by a few years..eg buying at peak last year........but now, the EPC income is coming in already.

Hai Duong IPP - FCF NPV at 12% equity cost is RM 1.096 billion
value to Jaks @30% $ 329 million (or 75 sen share)

gains from EPC Contract US$ 91 million or $ 409.5 million
discounted value to Jaks $ 298 million (or 68 sen per share)


discounting a cash flow at 12% has factored in some risk elements.
The real gain is more than 75 sen and 68 sen respectively.



so, if you add current NTA $ 1.20 + .75 + .68 + X factor.,
the worth of the Company share is $ 2.63 plus X factor.

it is more accurate to focus on the big picture than on intra day fluctuations,
always have a big picture in mind.

if you are trader like me who have sold at 53, or who have not been involved before, I will trade again if it drops sharply for 3 consecutive days.....if not there are opportunities elsewhere.

If you think it is good, you should keep averaging down

Live or die depends on your own findings.

I go to

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/stockmanmy.jsp , but this portfolio is not there

so since I am in the ibot, how do I do maintenance of dividends etc?

what is that about?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockman/113723.jsp

this company may be debt free but it is not liability free.

it has the liability / responsibility to clean up the mess at the end of the period.....check its Balance Sheet.

maybe the seller don't want to clean up the mess......lol.



thinkfirst > Jan 13, 2017 05:53 PM | Report Abuse

Why worry , worry only for contra player. if tonight oil price up Monday will back to 0.50 and above if drop then Monday will struggler with the price closing today. But this counter with good track record debt free , so keep the share.

4 sen drop?

is that significant?

nevertheless, over a long enough time period, what the broken clock says about dances and dancing is very relevant, very true.

even a broken clock is right twice a day.

tough, very tough
dealing with short term sentiments is tough....makes it even tougher if have to be responsible for another person.

But , if you have $ 1150, buy Jaks and keep for one year.


Sonic128 > Jan 13, 2017 05:03 PM | Report Abuse

stockmanmy, i m losser here. Any good share to buy ? nowaday inflation very high, need some extra money to cover living cost.

Appreciate if you can recommend some share.

Best regards

its called dealing with uncertainties.
dealing with probabilities.
and dealing with sentiments

oil price co relationship is only a weak relationship

a stronger co relationship is with sentiments.

reasons lose to experience because all the same reasons were there from day 1 to last day.

I did say for one week already I am going to sell at 53....saw that.?



kakashi > Jan 13, 2017 04:41 PM | Report Abuse

stockmanmy, to be honest, from the first day, I don't know what u talking about, seriously.

kakashi

all the reasons is no use against money in the bank.

reasons again lose to experience

kakashi

all the reasons is no use against money in the bank.

would be good if it can drop back to $ 1.10.

A lot of people can be satisfied that way.

I think will drop

icon


write your piece.

not enough response.

forget Air Asia, buy Jaks.

ringgit at this level...only those stuck is interested in this company.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/113441.jsp

the business model of trying steal stuffs from the oil giants is not a viable business model, unless you are Uncle Sam with an army behind you.

but who knows? speculators are born every day.

ps...as promised for more than a week here, just got out at 53 sen all of my Hibiscus acquired at 30 sen ........lol

kaka


we will see tomorrow whether it is a house of cards or some thing substantive. Let's see how resilient is this thing to profit taking on a weaker DJ tomorrow......lol.