Ask yourself this loh!

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ??

No need mah.....just do hedging loh.....if so profitable......and sure profit mah!

Correctloh....but how come after 2014 no more hedge sell leh ??

reasons are;

Bcos making huge losses....until need to go bankrupt mah!

Lu tau boh ?

It was sold to the Chinese in 2017 mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 24 seconds ago | Report Abuse



A liar will always lie.......2016 Shell Refinery was taken over by Hengyuan. Operations under the task Force and watchful eyes from Chinese.

Where got increase leh ??
U better give proper substantiated facts & figure mah!

DAP or PH in fact the least corrupted party in msia loh!

Posted by Michael Kwok > 13 hours ago | Report Abuse

No.ph con many people.promise to take care chinese but prostitution of both gender increase 2-3 times.all in pakatan state selangor and kl.example 100k now 200k-300k.u see the problem.very bad.selangor and kl under pakatan harapan ruling.

Khairi should join PH loh!
Preferably go for either for Amanah or DAP and compete in rembau, under PH ticket loh!

After 2014.....Shell no longer do hedging....why leh ??

Use your brain think lah!

Posted by vinc3362 > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Dear Stockraider,
I have lost all respect for you.
Just to prove your point, you can create stories out of thin air.
All I did was just to look up year 2013 Shell Refinery financial reports and the information is all there. They were doing hedging and booking derivative gains & losses into their financial accounts.
Next time you want to spin stories, cover your backside properly.

Just have confident lah!

If the owner & directors dare to buy so much of TSH, surely it is a worthwhile buy loh!

Just follow & buy below Rm 1.07 ....u will win loh!

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ??

The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!

The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!

U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end still did not make money loh!

Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE....a large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the software & resources to support its trade loh!

I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!

That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!

Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
And this is beside the risk of raider fear of hengyuan intention of siphoning money loh!

Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?

1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!

They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!

Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!

1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:

2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?

This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:

The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?

1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!

f the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ??

The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!

The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!

U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end still did not make money loh!

Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE....a large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the software & resources to support its trade loh!

I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!

That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!

Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
And this is beside the risk of raider fear of hengyuan intention of siphoning money loh!

Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?

1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!

They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!

Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!

1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:

2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?

This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:

The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?

1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ??

The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!

The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!

U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end still did not make money loh!

Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE....a large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the software & resources to support its trade loh!

I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!

That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!

Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
And this is beside the risk of raider fear of hengyuan intention of siphoning money loh!

Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?

1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!

They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!

Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!

1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:

2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?

This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:

The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?

1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!

If the virtual refinery of buying crude future & hedging it buy selling future petrol & diesel with a good paper profit computed by SSLEE & Probability really work, then General Raider will make billions just with Rm 10 million....by just doing repeating regular hedge base on the formula advocated by Probability & SSLEE mah!

If that is highly successful....Raider will become a billionaire, bcos it is risk free....bcos everything is hedge......with good reasonable paper profit, when the hedge is done mah!

Then why we need a refinery leh ??

The truth it is not true mah!
The deal done ....is actual speculative & unsustainable... despite fully hedge loh!

The situation & dynamics.. does not applies only to CRUDE & Petroleum mkt...but will apply to every commodity like Palmoil, Soyabean Oil, Metal etc loh!

U can do it on paper & completely hedge on paper with a reasonable profit....but the end still did not make money loh!

Thats is the reasons why....NOBLE....a large listed company in singapore dealing with trading of commodities go bankrupt despite having all the software & resources to support its trade loh!

I think sifu like SSLEE & Probability are just naive....by claiming a fully hedge position will make monies loh!

That is the reasons why ESSO & Shell refuse to do hedging loh!

Also that is the reasons why hengyuan registered a huge unrealised hedging losses on its derivative loh!
And this is beside the risk of raider fear of hengyuan intention of siphoning money loh!

Understanding why Prominent Previous Refinery Owner in Msia like Shell & Esso do not do hedging ?

1.The traditional business model of hardcore refinery are simple loh!
They buy physical crude & refine it to physical petrol & diesel and sell at price base on formula with reference to Crude Price, Exchange Rate & Crack Spread fixed by Msia Govt and make money mah!

They do not do fwd hedging n their natural hedge is the inventory they have in hand & their refinery to quickly efficiently process the crude to mainly Petrol & Diesel & quickly sell base on the fixed formula the msia Govt had set loh!

Now with the introduction of Hengyuan, it has modified the refinery model as follows loh!

1. Traditional Refinery Business Model as highlighted above.
2. Virtual Refinery Business Model using Paper Derivative as an investment & hedge to generate profit to be discussed below loh:

2.Virtual Refinery Business model thru pure hedging & derivative loh!
Do u notice that Hengyuan lose alot of monies consistently most of the time despite, mathematical computation on paper the derivative & hedge is highly profitable as per feedback of SSLEE and Probability leh ?

This is bcos the paper computation derivative & hedge shows profit do not reflect the reality situation & business dynamics of the trade loh! Reasons are as follows loh:

The Virtual Refinery Purchase its future crude by purchasing from NYMEX & compute it sells on Nymex sell price of Petrol & Diesel which showed a good profit when doing its hedge but how come this trade fail & registered big losses at the end leh ?

1. The mkt is very dynamic loh! On paper u may see big virtual profit by hedging future crude purchase & future sell of petrol & diesel end products....but when time come for settlement in turnout to be a loss loh!
Why leh the complete hedge trade of buying & selling here cannot convert to a easy profit, like paper indicated leh ?
a. This is bcos the movement of future crude purchase price, do not completely correlate to the selling future price of petrol & diesel price due to huge mkt volatility mah! Just within a day the business dynamic may change loh! Like within 1 day the Crude Price go up 10% whereas the Petrol & Diesel selling future price did not move at all or vice versa loh!
b. The trade initiated are pure paper swap with no delivery of physical goods, thats why it may not reflect the real dynamic of a real physical refinery mah!
c. Even it involve actual delivery of the commodities, there are extra cost & logistic to bring this commodities for processing to convert it to a profit mah!
d. Thus the virtual refinery of Hengyuan business model has shown consistent losses bcos of this challenges discussed above loh!

Ph was kon by Mahathir mah!

U know history or not ah ?

Lu tak ala tenguk meh ??

TSH jual tanah....got alot of money to payoff all tsh debts meh!

Lu tak ala dengar sifu calvin lecture meh ??

Next time pay attention in class lah!

Good fwd TSH will not be stingy anymore mah!

Since the directors bought alot of TSH shares, he needs more div to support his funding mah!

Ok Capt Mabel...since u know what u r doing....General Raider wish u the best & good luck loh!

U buy stock for the right reasons....when it is worthwhile & have big margin of safety for u to invest mah!

U buy when price is depressed & not simply chase loh!

Lets think outside the box loh!

Does owning a house with a huge debts , a highly necessary in life leh ??
NO MAH!

What we need to do, is affordable living, not necessary owning a house when the cost forebear mah!

Country like Germany, not many people own a home mah, most of them rent loh!


Yes owning a house is force saving mah!

But u can still achieved the same force savings if u disciplinary invest in ASB or good quality n undervalue stock to grow your networth loh!

Right approach loh!
If Ismail dissolve parliament....the court cluster zahid will take control loh!

That means Ismail screwed loh....he may not even be selected as a BN candidates for election mah!

Yes Ismail Sabri should wait it out loh!

Just look khairy as an example....his rembau MP seats is taken up by somebody else loh!

Rubbish analysis this tobby loh!

1. Harapan need to shout BN to point to the fact is heavily corrupted & inefficient like LCS mah!
2. Precisely by PH bringing awareness & alertness the Rakyat has better hope loh!.
3. PH is already getting their act together even with the parliament not dissolve yet mah! In other words PH start early mah!.
4. PH is exploiting the BN weakness by exposing corruption, abuse of power, wasteful of resources and rakyat sufferring due to Inflation & BN bad management loh!
5. Yes adding Muda into PH is positive & complement to its strength bcos Muda can target more young voters mah!
6. Yes there is a risk MUDA can be agent of Mahathir, but with anti hopping law & muda joining PH n competing....under PH logo....the risk of defection can be reduce loh!
Thus ensure betrayal risk is lower loh!

Correctloh....thats why General Raider still address Sslee as Sifu loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Sslee seems to be a good man to me....

But sorry that from my observations for years good man mostly cannot do well in stock mkt (infact in biz as well)

If SSlee do his own biz I doubt if he can do well

U think OTB earns a lot of money fm stock mkt coz he is a good man ah?

General Raider urge mabel to save herself quickly, b4 too late by selling serba & quickly switch to sapnrg loh!

Just stand with sifu calvin & support him wholeheartedly when TSH is below Rm 1.07 loh!

Very safe entry price mah!

Raider do not understand whether sifu sslee & probability are greater fool loh!

Maybe they pretend to be greater fool by catching on other Greater greater fools loh!

Posted by AlsvinChangan > 14 seconds ago | Report Abuse

HY trying to fool the greater fool?

Raider do not understand whether sifu sslee & probability are greater fool loh!

Maybe they pretend to be greater fool by catching on other Greater greater fools loh!

Posted by AlsvinChangan > 14 seconds ago | Report Abuse

HY trying to fool the greater fool?

U do not understand loh!

The Tans are substantial shareholders more than 5%....if they sell, they still need to declare mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by JJPTR > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

dont buy based on
1. Kelvin Tan buying.
He may be buying the Tsh dumped by other non directors Tan.
lat few months, strange thing happen, 2 Tans resigned. They both quite big shareholders.
If they remain as director, when selling ,have to declare.
So they are out of TSH, can do what they like on TSH shares
Director now very good allowance 60k easily, why resign is a mystery.
May be 60k is nothing ya

In long run, there is no way...u will lose money investing in TSH at Rm 1.07 & below loh!

Just capitalise on this opportunity mah!

Surely in investment keep buying its own share substantially, mean alot in investment mah!

Do not be fool by all the naysayers loh!

In a nutshell, Charles make a very good observation mah!

Posted by CharlesT > 42 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Petron already provided for mark to mkt losses....for the hedging unrealized losses by flowing to the P&L mah!

It's quite straight fwd in Petronm's hedging cases i think...plus 1 minus 1...

As for HY's case, we will see......

Surely in investment keep buying its own share substantially, mean alot in investment mah!

Do not be fool by all the naysayers loh!

Sifu Sslee,

U do not understand higher level of accounting presentation mah!

Petron already provided for mark to mkt losses....for the hedging unrealized losses by flowing to the P&L mah!

Of course....for cashflow....the hedging unrealized losses is add back to the cashflow bcos...Petron had not payout for the unrealized hedging losses....the loss is just a provision mah!

This is different from hengyuan loh.....they payout cash for the unrealized huge hedging losses due to margin call as other receivable mah which balloned loh!

Lu tau boh leh ??

Posted by Sslee > 54 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
Do you really know what is mogas92, diesel and jetfuel crack spread?

And by the way Petronm caputure the unrealised loss of RM 166,799,000 in Balance sheet as derivatives assets and derivatives liabilities.

Eventhough the unrealised loss of RM 166,799,000 is capture in P&L but at cash flow level is added back.
That is why you get PAT of RM 289,856,000 but Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 637,472,000
Post a Comment

Sifu Sslee,

U do not understand higher level of accounting presentation mah!

Petron already provided for mark to mkt losses....for the hedging unrealized losses by flowing to the P&L mah!

Of course....for cashflow....the hedging unrealized losses is add back to the cashflow bcos...Petron had not payout for the unrealized hedging losses....the loss is just a provision mah!

This is different from hengyuan loh.....they payout cash for the unrealized huge hedging losses due to margin call as other receivable mah which balloned loh!

Lu tau boh leh ??

Posted by Sslee > 54 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
Do you really know what is mogas92, diesel and jetfuel crack spread?

And by the way Petronm caputure the unrealised loss of RM 166,799,000 in Balance sheet as derivatives assets and derivatives liabilities.

Eventhough the unrealised loss of RM 166,799,000 is capture in P&L but at cash flow level is added back.
That is why you get PAT of RM 289,856,000 but Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 637,472,000
Post a Comment

Petron realised & unrealised Hedging losses are all flowed thru the P&L.

After netting of all these hedging losses...Petron still reported a commendable net profit & unlike Hengyuan which is a huge losses after netting out the hedging losses mah!

Posted by Sslee > 32 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
Do you know Petronm Q2 realised derivatives loss is RM 207,862,000 and cumulative 6 months RM 437,873,000.
Q2 unrealised derivatives loss is RM 166,799,000.

The only crack spread to be used for reference is Mogas 92 of CME.....this should be the composite return, of all the petroleum products.....& right now for the next 6 mths....it is considered very low level loh!

Raider feel that the Crack spread should be about USD 7 on the average to give a fair return to the refinery loh!

U R talking rubbish loh!

Petron do not have the exceptional & consistent huge suspicious derivative losses like Hengyuan mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Sslee > 5 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Should it be Petron report lower PAT of RM 289,856,000 and Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 637,472,000? Siphon out the money?

What does this mean for Petron loh ??

I mean that if u borrow money to invest at Petron at a fixed rate of 8% pa for 15 yrs, it is worth rm 12.00 today loh!

Thus if u have bought Petron at Rm 4.70 today....your potential profit is Rm 12.00 minus Rm 4.70 = Rm 7.30 loh! ( after paying off all interest mah!}

For Petron i m more confident bcos management do not simply hentam & no siphoning of money loh! Thus the net present value is rm 12 base on DCF rate of 8% pa loh!

For Hengyuan, there is a very big doubts....bcos of siphoning of money loh!

Thus if hengyuan is an investment with a lifespan of upto 15 yrs, should behave like a bond instead as a share mah!

Lu tau boh ??

Thus profit opportunity is restricted bcos of this loh!

Correctloh.....bcos this type of refinery business...u are talking investing in pepetuity....due to limited life span mah!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Don't be silly. I don't think Sslee would still be looking deeply into the eyes of PetronM in 10-15 years, since he's in love with Insas.

Trading in cyclical stocks such as O&G is not holding for a decade.

If u invest in Petrol Refinery, u are talking about a lifespan of 12 to 15 yrs b4 it is render obsolete with EV loh!

Thus strategically there should no more big capex spend on refinery mah!

Naturally Refinery will be need to be high, bcos of no more new capacity, as no one willing to invest loh!

Thus valuation of Refinery should not be on PE loh....it should be based on discounted cashflow over 15 yrs loh!

Lu tau boh ??

If u invest in Petrol Refinery, u are talking about a lifespan of 12 to 15 yrs b4 it is render obsolete with EV loh!

Thus strategically there should no more big capex spend on refinery mah!

Naturally Refinery will be need to be high, bcos of no more new capacity, as no one willing to invest loh!

Thus valuation of Refinery should not be on PE loh....it should be based on discounted cashflow over 15 yrs loh!

Lu tau boh ??

If u invest in Petrol Refinery, u are talking about a lifespan of 12 to 15 yrs b4 it is render obsolete with EV loh!

Thus strategically there should no more big capex spend on refinery mah!

Naturally Refinery will be need to be high, bcos of no more new capacity, as no one willing to invest loh!

Thus valuation of Refinery should not be on PE loh....it should be based on discounted cashflow over 15 yrs loh!

Lu tau boh ??

Put it this way loh, Rebound is opportunity sell mah!

Do not forget Hengyuan coming qtr result will be very bad, like charles said loh!

Furthermore high chance of kon at hengyuan loh!

Look at the fact & figures mah!

All back up mah!
Nothing malicious mah!
Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by Johnzhang > 15 seconds ago | Report Abuse

All the malicious attackers on HY must have bought HY at $17 in Jan 2018 and cut massive losses at $4-5. It’s been so painful for so long that it can not be forgotten and forgiven. But that’s not HY’s fault ,but their own fault. Why attack HY as a company?
So buying at $4-5 now is very safe , especially HY makes historical level of earnings for FY2022 that no other listed companies has ever achieved on PEx basis.

This exactly like JAKS power plant story loh!
Posted by MoneyMakers > 42 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Only probability/sslee think HY hedging always perfect/profitable

Dunno whether they blind or what - never see HY soo many prev QR got losses

Post removed.Why?

I think Hengyuan share price will fall & its bad behavior pull down Petron to Rm 2.50 loh!

And Raider will buy more Petron at Rm 2.50 but raider will not buy Hengyuan whatever price, bcos of potential kon loh!

Already explain loh!
In case of Hengyuan kena margin call of Rm 1.5b due to derivative losses loh!

What happen if Hengyuan cannot pay up leh ??

Bankrupt loh!

All the hedge position will get liquidated with hedge losses mah!

Posted by probability > 5 seconds ago | Report Abuse

@ular, please elaborate how hedging can lead to loss? example with hedging contract and consequence please...

True loh!
Chinese Nickel billionaire nearly bankrupt betting on nickel future loh!

Lucky russian -ukraine war save him from the brink

Posted by UlarSawa > 17 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Takda baca news article many China companies also hedging on commodity lah. Not only HY leh. Where got hedging surewin one leh. If thats the case no need so hard run the refinery terus hedge enuf lah. Haiyoh.
Correct?

eagerinvestor

hy profit or loss is based on margin not derivatives. so yes it can make money when head win tail also win when got margin.