koon bee calculation salah la. Refer to the calculation i share above......

I bought some today after talking more to my friend. I feel kinda comfortable with the info and the last question i ask my friend was since super investor already run from this counter, go hope meh? He say because of super investor run, he bought even more. Why? With superinvestor there, he bring alot of contra kaki with him. He alone cause alot of volatility. Even though he might say his share is small compare to the total outstanding share and the transaction is in million but never underestimate the follower as well. It can stir up the wave le. So since super investor not here, less big fluctuation and the bonus is if super investor come back to revisit ah......ho seh liao loh......by his logic, i also punt some.

Uncle koon golden rule very fluid n dynamic 1.....lol. U all can follow o not? Soon he will tell u rule is dead but ppl is alive. Rule is made by ppl ma.... i really like to see wht he will do with carimin since it same predicament like hibiscus where reduce 50% profit.

dragoon...u think godfather go back there ah???

dragoon....u go back reban ah? I think heart no so strong anymore. Cannot handle the day where 1 day up Rm1 to Rm2. Then continue up for 4 to 5 days and drop. Like riding a roller coaster. I scared the money earn not enuf to go IJN.

Nobody is denying demand for fossil fuel is affected with Electric vehicle. But it will not be within the 3 yrs ma. Or maybe between 10 to 20 yrs horizon? By then hibiscus also make back the money a'dy. if no make back, i think the well also pump till dry la. Want to milk out wat? mud ah?

Dicky....want to quote article also, quote la full. Dun only quote the good news but bad news sweep it under carpet. Like that really like a dick loh. Erect only come out. When limp, hide inside the boxer. It is heavily subsidies leh. Not cheap ok. Got hill, cannot. Extreme winter....struggle leh......

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/dec/12/silence-shenzhen-world-first-electric-bus-fleet
"But with central government planning to withdraw subsidies by 2020, introducing electric buses elsewhere could be too expensive.

There is also geography to consider. Shenzhen is fairly flat, but the hills of nearby Hong Kong have proven too much in trials of electric buses. Other cities in northern China have struggled with battery power in the extreme cold of winter."

qq3, i have no answer to your question because i dun understand your question in the 1st place.....lol.....mind to enlighten us?

Lol.....dragoon....who flug u......hahahah.....
u sure that person flag u because of ur comment ah? Mayb u piss of someone leh or u 1 night stand and forget that person leh....

Giant Panda, thanks for the call warrant info. I guess that is why hibiscus cannot bloom la. Left, right and centre got rafflesia surrounding. Never mind. They are dying soon. Mid next month can bloom beautifully.

Dragoon......cut short ah? Summary is either buy or sell or hold loh. But then is i say buy, u say i promoter. If i say sell, u say i hater.....if i say hold .....u say u stupeed is it.....loss of opportunity cost. So mau cakap apa? Read and make u own conclusion loh

lai lai....apa mau tembak with the above sharing....at least can see if there is any flaw o not. If no big flaw....i think i also mortgage my underwear and buy. Dragoon....can loan me ah? i pawn my underwear to you.

I do no justice to the author but only sharing 1/2 of the author thoughts. Here is the other half. But if notice how it is written, it is not an analyst type of analysis la but merely the author penned down the thoughts on why it should continue to hold buy or sell.....mayb.....this want I dunno. It was a sharing during a chit chat.

Salient Point
1. Debt free. This is most important as they do not have the borrowing liability such as paying interest. If oil were to tank to US$40, shale oil will stop pumping and very quickly oil price should be able to readjust itself back to US$55 level. 1 to 2 Q of loss (low oil price) will not bankrupt the company.
2. Cash flow is strong and healthy
3. Growing company. The current target is a 3M barrel. By 2021, the company target to achieve a net production of 20K barrel per day which equates to 7M barrel. Management aspires to grow the company produces over 100% in the next 2 yrs. Assuming everything remains the same with the current stock price, by 2021 it should worth RM2.20?? 30% grow annually?
4. Smart and Transparent management. Management knew they have limited quantity product ie 3million barrel a year to sell and therefore they manage by selling more during high price and less during low price. That the reason management has said they cannot control the oil price but they can control the cost of producing it and the efficiency.
5. Cyclic business. The business indeed is cyclic and referring to point 3, Hibiscus can’t be evaluated on Q to Q basis but should be a yearly basis. But what is known is the barrel will keep on growing. Fuel price is beyond the company control.
6. The Q2’18 already factor in the unfavourable news such as low oil price and maintenance shutdown. The next few Q should not be worse than this (Unless Brent oil fell below 55 again) and it should report the same if not better. Therefore, should it worth min Rm1.80??
7. Oil is still in demand. I don’t think in 3 yrs time everyone will change into electrical vehicle nor plane flying using solar power. Also, the Venezuela sanction should come to full force in May this year. Therefore, Hibiscus should have a stable and predictable earning until 2021.
8. Debt free, growing company, strong cash flow, transparent management. What else do I ask for? Do i have 2 yrs wait for 100% return? Yea!!!! I think I do.......

Dragoon, u think carimin wun have the same problem meh? Last time uncle say 5c x 4Q = 20c. Then this week say coming Q should expect lower eps as Oct-Dec is monsoon season. 1st, carimin no record 2Q profit but uncle also buy. 2nd, he say if he see reduce profit, he will sell. Now b4 Q he already know will hv reduce profit, then he say smart investor should know what to do. Then u say leh???......can trust ah???? U want to donate to koon foundation is it? It is better to donate straight la.

Wahhh...RJ49 so fierce ah.....demand me to shut up ah???
i no sharing facts meh? Then u tell ur point of view loh. Dun only write 1 sentence which has no substance.

aiyo....dragon.....why ask so many Q.....now as if i'm talking for the author. It is the person thought ma....i mana tau leh. I not the small dragon (worm) in the author tummy leh. But NS oil is premium oil right. So certain ppl sure want premium oil compare to shale oil loh. Annasuria i not sure la. I think is normal kua. Also, the 2021....all sampan must use low sulphur oil right?.....and NS happen to be 1 of them???

Tehka, pls dun take the calculation as a face value. Pls verify le. Actually there is a 2nd part to the article/diary. It summarise and paint a better picture. but since everyone still want to collect low. So dun share loh. Later kena scolding only. But the salient point is according to the author, hibiscus cannot be analyse QtoQ. Is should be year to year. The author say that it is know fact that they will produce 3million barrel a year. So it is the responsibility of the management to maximise that. Ie sell less during low price and more during high price while you still have space to store the produce. That the reason recent Q report less revenue while inventory increase so that they can release their stock when the price is right. Of course it is double edge sword. Imagine if oil price suddenly goes down and u have so much of stock on hands. But then again, the management does look capable and transparent.

Oooppppss....am i talking too much now???

Dericlock, it is ok la. Consider sharing is caring loh.......lol. Thought of doing some community services. Good also to share ma and let ppl bombard so that can see if there is any flaws in the analysis. Anyway, i merely forward it when i received. Thought it is a logical analysis la....

Huh?? Derilock......aiyo...publish a'dy. That is only part 1. Got part 2 1 oh......dun share ah?....ok loh....

dragon.....why PE5 leh? O&G min PE also 10 kua. Somemore growth company wor. Should be given PE15 leh.

Someone shared this with me.


Hibiscus (20st Feb 2019)

Dear investment diary. Below is my thought on hibiscus……..

Inventory
1Q’18 - RM 20M
2Q’18 - RM 52M
Difference – RM 32M

Annasuria
Average Daily Oil Production rate – 3,962 bbl/day
Monthly – 118,860 bbl/month
Quarter – 356,580 bbl/quarter
Yearly – 1,426,320 bbl/year
Oil sold this quarter (1 offtake) – 274,015 bbl
Balance into inventory – 82,565 bbl
Note: Oil sold on average of US$58.05

North Sabah
Average Daily Oil Production rate – 4,958 bbl/day
Monthly – 148,740 bbl/month
Quarter – 446,220 bbl/quarter
Yearly – 1,784,880 bbl/year
Oil sold this quarter (1 offtake) – 293,624 bbl
Balance into inventory – 152,596 bbl
Note: Oil sold on average of US$71.30

Barrel cost in inventory = RM 32,000,000 / (82,565 + 152,596)
= RM 30M / 235,161
= RM 127.47
= US$ 31 ( 1USD @ RM4.1)

Assuming the average selling price of USD 65 for Annasuria + NS, the last Q inventory should worth another RM 32.8M on top of what has been recorded in the inventory. Management has hidden the 32.8M profit. Assuming oil price average @US$65 and the current production rate, the next Q should be able to report additional RM125M on top of the revenue. Next Quarter revenue should RM 290M to 310M.

The above assumption is calculated on a very conservative assumption. The current oil price average should be US$70 (NS selling US$5 premium than Annasuria and NS production is actually producing 25% more than Annasuria. Therefore, it is unjustified to use average to calculate but to ease calculation average was used. It is also excluding the growth rate of the additional barrel that Hibiscus going to produce from the new oil field & increase in efficiency. This quarter has also factor in all the bad news ie; maintenance in NS where OPEX is as high as USD 22.74 where the norm is around USD 12 and low oil price. With all remain the same as last Quarter, the next Q should show a better result & I guess should have 5c to 5.5c. Estimate annual EPS for Yr’18 should be around 18c to 20c and I think it should worth RM1.80???? A growing company with no debt………hmmm!!!!

Anyway, the above is just my flawed calculation and imagination……lol……

Finally godfather enter the den. Been long waiting for godfather. But heard godfather right hand man issue sell call last week. Ask to take profit....then today uncle say he is holding dayang....conspiracy theory??? Hehe...

Dicky...u r not referring to me right?......i no agree with u. I just stating the sell volume oni. If i have $12M, will i wollap all???.....hmm...very difficult to answer

aiya risktransformer, apa lu cakap. EPF selling....u say scared they sell till RM3. Then next day epf selling to press down the price so they can collect more.......which is which oh.....
now say risk this risk that.......only risk is, your money ur risk, philip money, philips's risk and my money, my own risk loh.....

12K+ lot at 1.05 to 1.07. Take the lowest price also, you need Rm12million to break that. Not to mention to break above 1.10.....macam susah oh....

Philips, thank for the encouragement. Actually for the PIC, i actually concern on the politically thingy especially where you mentioned 70% feedstock will come from saudi. If it don't materialise, then this will be a white -elephant....but of course my understanding of this stock is way below you.....anyway, i will wait for the coming QR.

Wah lau stock raider, u spamming other ppl tread ah? If the information you share is good also become no good a'dy la. I read the 1st 2 and then wah lau, see so looong.....i skip all the way down. So hard sell for wat? Share not moving? Have some patient la. For insas is not immediate like Pchem. Fast, 4-6 yrs loh. Long, wait 10-15 yrs loh....sure up 1

TYS, kossan is goreng stock??

Philips, i also bought some. But i was waiting for the QR to see if i should commit more of my fund here. I don't have a large pool of fund like you and therefore it is more important for me to test the water 1st before dipping in. I never know will it be too hot for me. Mayb as for you, if too hot, you have be ability to put in ice cube ma (buy more loh if go down)

Veron, not i believe. I'm just saying oni. Normally when u get old, u repent ma. Still same old habit meh? Also this time no buy using margin. So no change of margin call like HY. Last time he say he din sell ma, ....bank sell for him and make price drop. Cannot blame him ma...

I was hoping price remain stagnant until QR out. I guess it is unlikely then. Mayb this Q report a good profit.

wow...epf selling but yet Pchem going up? This must be the power of Philips .....

Anal, u sure Mr.Koon say he dispose all at 90c ah? Sure o not. QR not yet out leh. Then his target RM2 leh? Apa sudah jadi? U dun simply tarnish Uncle name le. He say 1 ma. He project with PE10, it should worth Rm2. Only sell if QR reported no profit.

finally kossan have some action. Else, ppl think it is dead company

SHould have swap all my affin to bimb.....only did half....

wah...rob comment also kena removed ah? I wonder what dickyme and rob post.....hehe

someone controlling kossan price? Hovering at this level only....

BIMB is inching up quietly but steadily,...hope it continues to do so...

Panda.....uncle come in already ah?

i don't agree with raider on this 1. How can compare myeg, pestariang with Pchem leh? Petronas is the main shareholder. Pchem die, petronas div also get affected le.....

stockraider......yup cannot use past record as a measurement but can be used as a reference. I will be waiting to the upcoming QR but i think the growth factor is already there.

stockraider, assuming Pchem does not get cheap gas from petronas and everything remains the same, the current profit margin is 25%. If feed stk get cheaper, isn't that the bonus? For sure, the transport cost will reduce because it is located next door already.

Hi Philips, just wondering that you have invested all the 12M you got from Pbbank into Pchem? & that is only your 1st block?

Ven.....meaning u exit already la. I waiting for Rm1....lol. I use golden rules, get RM2 ma. I also not greedy. So i give 50% discount. Then get RM1 loh.

6847xxxxx.....u got follow uncle or not. 1Q profit reduce ....he straight chop le. Not i say 1 oh....he say 1.

Speakup....no need to shout so loud or work so hard. All you need is just invite godfather here. Godfather will help u to do all the work.

Ven, what's your exit plan?

If carimin no good, then uncle koon will cash out and come to dayang ma. Then good for dayang la. 2Q profit leh. Oil price now recovers.

Philips, thanks for sharing. Pchem does look interesting. Main revenue (70%) is from Olefins and Derivatives segment but in the last QR, it was reported as below. Maybe that the reason EPF disposing. Will be buying some after the release of the upcoming QR.

"The Group anticipates that the Olefins and Derivatives segment to soften in the coming quarter. This is in view of ample supply from the Middle East and North-East Asia whilst slowing down of demand following regional planned turnarounds" (pg.15)

Pchem does look interesting. Main revenue (70%) is from Olefins and Derivatives segment but in the last QR, it was reported as below. Maybe that the reason EPF disposing some. Will consider buying some after the release of the upcoming QR.

"The Group anticipates that the Olefins and Derivatives segment to soften in the coming quarter. This is in viewof ample supply from the Middle East and North-East Asia whilst slowing down of demand following regional planned turnarounds" (pg.15)