my armada ya? took handsome profit last time, left free lots~

6257 not only 1.1, will pecah 1.2 !!! stay tuned !!!

count down for less than 12 days!!! stay tuned!!!

stay tuned!!!

you may give up and choose another horse, hehe

saintambrose bro, count down for another 2 weeks!! stay tuned!!

bombastic news ahead!! stay tuned!!

target price within 20 days 1.16 to 1.28++!!! stay tuned!!!

stay tuned!!!

Outlook

Tin Manufacturing segment is becoming increasingly competitive, though the softer tinplate price is likely to provide margin stability in the near-term.
F&B sales volume are projected to be strong driven by domestic capacity expansion and strategic JV in Mexico. While current high skimmed milk powder price may eventually sip into JTB’s input costs and normalise its margins, we opine management would proactively manage its procurements and price negotiations.

Valuation

Reiterate Buy on JTB with a higher TP of RM1.80/share (previously: RM1.57/share) as we roll forward the valuation to CY20. We value the F&B and tin manufacturing segments at 15x and 8x CY20 EPS, respectively. We reduced the ascribed F&B valuation by 1x PER to account for the current soft market sentiment on the F&B industry due to fluctuation in raw materials price.

Source: TA Research - 30 May 2019

stay tuned!!

stay tuned!! more good news ahead!!

ikah bro, dun worry, focus what should be focused 1st, earn what should be earned 1st!! stay tuned!!

sapu!! stay tuned!!

QES ignore 1st, johotin damn cheap, grab!! stay tuned!!

last time mini market selling golden fish at 100, now selling you 50, happy or unhappy?

some innocent ppl sold due to US-China tariff, hehe

offer price!! grab

69? why u so hamsap :)

Horses lend us the wings we lack. Riding this golden horse to the moon!! Stay tuned!!

stay tuned!!

great chance to grab! stay tuned!!

Industry 4.0 topic!! stay tuned!! theme!! huat!!

stay tuned!!

golden horse!!! awesome!!!

great chance!!

stay tuned!!

88Tan in few months let's laughing all the way to the bank together!!

Stay tuned!!

By May pecah 2.6, by June 2.8!!!

Bermaz Auto - Looking to Sustain Record FY19F Performance
Date: 25/04/2019

Source : MIDF
Stock : BAUTO Price Target : 2.85 | Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 2.38 | Upside/Downside : +0.47 (19.75%)

Back

INVESTMENT THESIS
New launches to sustain strong FY19F TIV in FY20F
Eyeing >50% FY20F export growth and 9% overall volume growth for manufacturing unit
Special dividends in the offing; current yield of 7% already attractive
Re-affirm BUY at unchanged TP of RM2.85
Price hike. After raising pricing for the new CX5 by RM2,000 in Jan18 BAuto will raise pricing for all its models by RM2,000 (including the CX5) effective Jan19. In return, consumers will be getting an extra 2 years of warranty and free servicing (from the original 3 years). This should be positive for margins but the impact is spread over the 5-year period as after sales service revenue is recognised based on periodic maintenance schedules of the vehicles. BAuto generates up to 50% margins on aftersales service vs. an estimated 30% gross margin on vehicle sales.

Bookings remain decent. Total outstanding bookings stand at 1500 units with 65%-70% of this comprising the CX5. Around 800 of the outstanding bookings came in the month of April. BAuto completed deliveries of bookings tied to its SST-rebate promo in Jan19. Volumes are expected to normalise from 4QFY19 onwards but with a marginal improvement in margins. Net cost of the SST-rebate is estimated at RM1000-1500/unit.

New launches to sustain strong FY19 TIV. BAuto expects to at least maintain FY19F TIV of 15K-16K units in FY20F. Despite the inflated base driven by the tax-holiday in Jun18-Aug18, volumes will be driven by a pipeline of new launches namely the all new CX8 in Oct19/Nov19, CX30 sometime in 2HFY20 and the Mazda 3 in Jun19. Key volume drivers will come from the CX8 and the CX30 if it is locally assembled. A CKD CX30 might cannibalise the CX5 to a certain extent if pricing can be brought lower than the expected CBU pricing of RM140K-RM145K.

Special dividends in the offing? Given sharply improved earnings driven by the new CX5 and an exceptional boost from the tax-holiday in FY19F, we think there is room for a special dividend that could lift payout above our current 80% assumption, which already implies attractive yields of 7%. This should be backed by a strong balance sheet (FY19F net cash: RM270m) and FY19F FCF yield of 9%. BAuto is an asset light cash cow with little further equity investments required for its 30%-owned manufacturing unit.

Goodies from NAP? The Malaysian Robotics & IoT Institute (MARii) has been taking feedbacks from industry players in regards to the upcoming NAP (National Automotive Policy) review. We understand that part of BAuto’s wish list is for incentives for CBU exports, which would predominantly revolve around some sort of duty reduction/discount. BAuto is currently Malaysia’s largest CBU exporter with an estimated 6987 export units as of 9MFY19 comprising of the CX5 model. Its 2nd export model, the CX8 is expected to commence from 2HFY20. If successful, this could be an earnings re-rating catalyst.

Source: MIDF Research - 25 Apr 2019

meaning great chance for you to grab. if bought 0.24, in very short term can reach 0.34!! 24k to earn 10k!! 240k to earn 100k!! 2.4m to earn 1m!!

stay tuned!!

count dow for fantastic bombastic announcement and good news!!

golden black horse of 2019!! stay tuned!!

stay tuned!!

QES potentially can let us laugh louder while walking to the bank!! if bought 0.245, in very short term can reach 0.34!! 24k earn 10k!! 240k earn 100k!! 2.4m earn 1m!!

stay tuned!!

target price 0.34!! within few months!!

stay tuned!!! a golden black horse of year 2019!!!

stay tuned!!

Bumi Armada - Near Term Road Block Cleared
Date: 25/04/2019

Source : HLG
Stock : ARMADA Price Target : 0.33 | Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 0.25 | Upside/Downside : +0.08 (32.00%)

Back

We are positive on the successful refinancing of its existing loans as it alleviates the near term financial risk and reduces going concern risk. Meanwhile, Armada is actively looking to monetise its idle assets at commercially acceptable pricing in order to improve its cash flows. Subsequent to the refinancing, we reduce FY19-20 earnings by 17%/16% factoring additional interest cost. Nonetheless, we upgrade the stock to BUY with a higher TP of RM0.33 (from RM0.20) given the alleviation of financial risk coupled with recovering oil price.

NEWSBREAK
Armada announced that its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Bumi Armada Capital Offshore Limited (BACOL) and Bumi Armada Holdings Labuan Limited (BAHLL) have secured the refinancing of the aggregate principal amounts outstanding under BACOL’s existing term loan facilities of USD380m (RM1.6bn) and BAHLL’s revolving credit facilities of USD280m (RM1.2bn) under a USD660m (RM2.7bn) term loan facilities. The facility comprises Tranche 1 of USD260m (RM1.7bn) and Tranche 2 of USD400m (RM1.7bn) repayable over 24 months and 60 months respectively.

HLIB’s VIEW
Long awaited refinancing news. We are positive on the news as it alleviates the near term financial risk and reduces going concern risk. As the deadline of the new facility is being postponed, Armada is likely to incur additional interest cost of c.RM40m/annum.

Monetisation of assets to improve cash flows. Armada is actively looking to monetise its assets (certain idle OMS and FPO assets) at commercially acceptable pricing. With that, this will help to improve it’s near term cash flows and will be used to repay the loan.

Another RM1.8bn loan waiting to be reclassified. Note that term loan of RM1.8bn related to Armada Kraken is still classified in current liabilities due to not able to achieve final acceptance by the scheduled date earlier on. The project lenders have the right to issue, but have to-date, not issued a notice for full prepayment of the loan. We understand that Armada is still in discussion with clients and is expected to resolve in the near term.

Potential new project? According to Upstream, Armada is the only bidder for India’s Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) for a FPSO contract for the KG-DWN-98/2 project. The contract is likely to have firm nine year duration with an option to extend by up to six years. Looking at the current financial situation, we do not discount the possibility of potential cash call if Armada were to secure the job.

Forecast. We reduced our FY19-20 earnings by 17%/16% after factoring additional interest cost subsequent to the refinancing.

Upgrade to BUY, TP: RM0.33. Despite the earnings cut, our SOP-derived TP is lifted to RM0.33 (from RM0.20) after we remove the 40% discount to DCF valuation from our SOP. With near term financial risk alleviated coupled with recovering oil price, we expect sentiment on the stock to turn positive. As such, our rating is upgraded from Hold to BUY. Our target price of RM0.33 has implied FY19 P/E of 8.2x and FY19 P/B of 0.5x, which is slightly above -1SD of its 3-yar mean. Downside risk to our call would be earnings disappointment arising from Kraken operations.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 25 Apr 2019

O&G Play Set to Return

It is sad that the most important nation in the world - once the global policeman - is now a rogue nation. Yesterday the U.S. announced that it would impose sanction on any nation that imports Iranian oil (here). I equate this action to the invasion of Iraq by George W Bush in 2003.

Politics aside, crude oil has just broken above last 2 weeks highs of USD72.00 and put in a gain fo USD2.07 to close at USD74.04. It came close to testing the resistance at the horizontal line at USD75.00.

The current breakout move is a strong move based on rising ADX. Notwithstanding a short-term pullback, I believe this move could eventually test USD80.00 before a more meaningful correction. Thus, I believe we may see another round of play in our O&G sector.

Bumi Armada is much better than Sapura Energy, very soon by this week or next week Armada price will be higher than sapnrg!! Stay tuned!!

key point:

（5）从年报季报和文告，找出手头持有多少合同（工作量），除以每年的营业量，就知道手头的工作可支持多少年，万一来年没有标到新工作，或是所标得的工作量少于预期，公司的操作也不会受影响。例如沙布拉能源在2019年开始，手头持有194亿令吉的合同，以上一个财务年的营业量计算，约可支持3年（见大众投资银行2019年1月8日研究报告）。

布米阿玛达在去年9月底时持有210亿令吉的合同，以上一个财务年的24亿营业量计算，约可支持8年，另外该公司持有选择权，可延长103亿令吉的合同，这尚不包括在上述合同之内（见该公司2018年第三季季报）。

火中取栗拼油气(下) 菜鸟必学7招/冷眼
Author: Tan KW Publish date: Wed, 16 Jan 2019, 11:23 PM

2019年1月16日

你肯定听过“守株待兔”的寓言：

一只野兔被野狼追逐，狂奔逃命，竟误撞大树而死，一个笨汉刚好路过此处，拾到这只野兔，欣喜若狂。于是他抛下农事，守在树下，等待另一只野兔出现也撞树而死，他痴痴地等，等……这就是“守株待兔”。

作为散户，我们根本“玩”不过股市和油市，无从知道两“节”何时会翻身，就好像笨汉根本无法知道另一只野兔会不会出现，或何时会出现。除了痴痴的等待，别无他法。但是，股市笨汉若能锲而不舍坚守到底，另一只“野兔”必然会出现，而且可能比第一只更大、更肥。

要长期持守，则所投资的公司必须没有破产的风险，如果公司破产，投资者的投资将化为乌有，散户的资金都是血汗钱，全军覆没的风险冒不得。故所购买的油气股，必须具备以下全部或部分条件：

（１）有关公司最好有财雄势大的财团或机构作后盾，确保必要时有能力出手援救。

（２）最好选购大公司的股票，大到不能倒则更佳。这不纯粹是安全问题，而是因为国际油气公司不会将合同颁给小公司，以免受到延误，故大公司在竞标国际合同时占有优势。

（３）最好是手头握有数额可观合同的公司，确保三五年内即使标不到工程，或是得标数目低于预期，业务也不会受到影响。

（４）尽量选购本身拥有油田，同时也从事油气业支援服务的公司。

（５）所选公司最好现金流量属“净流入” 。

（６）尽量买在扣除“资产减值”之后，仍有盈利或亏蚀额不大的公司的股票。

（７）尽量购置营业量大的公司股票，营业量不大，表示有关公司没有竞标优势，若因竞标激烈而赚率又低，怎料取得可观盈利？

致股市菜鸟：记录读过资料随时温习

我鼓励股市菜鸟们以油气股为例，学习做功课，最好是将所读过的资料，写在一本笔记簿上，随时温习。我的经验是读10次不如写一次印象更深，如此不断的累积知识，持之以恒，就能达到融会贯通的地步。

关于油气股，菜鸟们可以这样做：

（１）利用图表，了解有关公司过去5年（10年更佳）的股价波动幅度，从而看出目前的股价是处于高、中、低价的哪个位置。（股票行多数有提供股价图表），处于低价者上升潜能较大。

（2）从年报找出过去5年的业绩纪录，预测若油价回升至5年前的水平（油价100美元以上），公司可能赚多少。

（3）阅读过去5年的年报、季报和文告（尤其是宣布得标的文告），详读年报中的“管理层讨论与分析，里面有丰富资料，可以增加对公司的了解。此部分是以往（3年前）年报所没有的，是交易所新的规定，非读不可。

（4）从年报和季报，找出有关公司的亏蚀中，有多少是因“资产减值”造成的，如果没有“资产减值”，公司赚多少，或是少亏多少。例如沙布拉能源2018年亏蚀25亿令吉，其中21亿令吉是“资产减值”，实际营业亏蚀额没有这么大。（见该公司2018年报第126页“现金流量表”）。

布米阿玛达在至2018年9月的第三季亏蚀5亿200万，在扣除了5亿635万令吉的“资产减值”及其他一次过减值项目后，实际上取得7520万令吉的营业净利（见2018年第三季季报及传媒文告）。

阅年报掌握最新发展

（5）从年报季报和文告，找出手头持有多少合同（工作量），除以每年的营业量，就知道手头的工作可支持多少年，万一来年没有标到新工作，或是所标得的工作量少于预期，公司的操作也不会受影响。例如沙布拉能源在2019年开始，手头持有194亿令吉的合同，以上一个财务年的营业量计算，约可支持3年（见大众投资银行2019年1月8日研究报告）。

布米阿玛达在去年9月底时持有210亿令吉的合同，以上一个财务年的24亿营业量计算，约可支持8年，另外该公司持有选择权，可延长103亿令吉的合同，这尚不包括在上述合同之内（见该公司2018年第三季季报）。

（6）跟踪油价变动，你可以从互联网找到布兰特原油每天的报价，从而了解油气市场的趋势，例如在写本文时（1月9日），每桶布兰特油价为61美元。

你只要在电脑的谷歌输入BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE，就可以找到每天的布兰特油价，长期跟踪就可以洞察油市的走势。

以上网址也载有5年的油价图，你能看到过去5年的油价波幅，一目了然。

（7）多读股票分析师的分析，比如沙布拉能源于本月7日宣布标得7亿6000万令吉的新工作，各股票行的分析师于8日就发表了分析报告。

报告也指出，沙布拉在过去一年所标得的工程量约为93亿令吉。使总工作量达到194亿令吉。这类分析可以帮助你跟踪沙布拉的最新发展，余者类推（见大众投资银行2019年1月8日研究报告）。

菜鸟们，如果你们想在股市淘金，除了勤做功课、多思考之外，别无他途。

don't forget to read again and again what Sifu Cold Eye written:

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/cold_eyed_step_by_step/190441.jsp

stay tuned!!

2 + 1 bombastic news and announcements!!
after rm0.3x!!
by May 2019 Armada will be moving toward rm0. 5!!

ladies and gentlemen!!

CO1:COM
Generic 1st 'CO' Future
74.57USD/bbl.+0.06 +0.08%
AS OF 05:57 PM EDT 04/24/2019 EDT