You have posted 51 posts on this thread originated by me here. Every post of yours, without exception, is about how bad Tien Wah is, and how good is your New Toyo, while New Toya as you have said owns 50% of Tien Wah. So how could this be? It is not that I give a damn.
I wrote the original post on Tien Wah here and I never asked anybody to buy it nor even talked about it after the posting. Yes, its business seems to be not doing well compared to before. Since then (10 months), its share price dropped 7 sen, or 3%. So what?
When people got tired of responding to your bashing posts, you come with these types of sarcastic remarks like below:
Posted by Robert Love > May 26, 2014 09:16 PM | Report Abuse Where are all the strong supporters of Tien Wah? Cowards hiding and still tied to your mother's apron strings ?
Seem that Tien Wah is finally going to break below 2.40 RM from its recent peak at 2.68 in Dec 2013...Finally, Mr Market is realizing that it has been overpriced..
A string of negative news and bad result prompted me to lock in profits at 2.65. My hunched proved right, at least for now. Really, if you think a stock is going down, you dont have to own it. or getting your panties in a twist bitching about it here over n over again.
I read your much earlier postings that said " still holding strong in the face of xxx"... Did u really sell all your holdings at 2.65 RM or still stuck at prices well below 2.65 RM?? haha
Tien Wah just released its Q2 results. As expected, the results were terrible. Half-yearly EPS has dropped to 9.41 (sen) from 16.65 (sen) or 44% DROP. Interim dividend has also been cut to 3 (sen) from 7.74 (sen) or 61% DROP
Since New Toyo is largely dependent on Tien Wah for a large segment of its revenue/profit, we can expect the results for New Toyo to be quite bad as well, and we should be prepared for a possible dividend cut.
The "unsustainability" of tobacco printing/packing has been explained earlier - printing volume reduction without a compensating pricing adjustment, unlike the big tobacco companies.
'i sound like a broken record, record, record. a broken record, record, record. all the times i said i was gonna change. Imma sound like a broken record, record, record'
It is not about who is right or who is wrong. It is about people who bragged and boasted that Tien Wah's tobacco printing/packaging business is sustainable and gives Tien Wah such a high valuation.
Aren't these people "misleading" the market into thinking that Tien Wah is value for money and a good investment? I find it so ridiculous that these people were still recommending people to buy into Tien Wah when it reached 2.50RM and when its fundamentals were fast deteriorating..
Tien Wah might be value for money Below $2.00 RM. Even at $2.20, it is OVER-VALUED!!!
From the example of this so-called good counter, one can see that all the earlier theories being painted about HOW GOOD the stock is were all useless...
Read from somewhere this is "systemic" risk that all counters either good or poor would drops when the broad market drops. Therefore someone also said not only buying good counter but most importantly buying it cheap. However TienWah does not meet my criteria as a good counter in the first place. Nice to read your post again.
The above article made a serious flaw. It assumed that Tien Wah can grow at a certain average rate of growth annually. It will never happen in reality!!!
If one were to apply the above 2 different paths of growth rates to derive valuation for Tien Wah, one would certainly end up with 2 totally different valuation!!!
Still harping on Tien Wah? OMG, others have moved far ahead already!
Anyway, I find your posting below which appears in a couple of my threads, classic, absolute classic!經典
I didn't know people can forecast future growth like you did:
[3%, 4%, -2%, -5%, 4%, 5%, 5%]
Classic, absolutely classic! Can't help saving your post below.
Posted by Robert Love > Feb 4, 2015 09:18 PM | Report Abuse
The above article made a serious flaw. It assumed that Tien Wah can grow at a certain average rate of growth annually. It will never happen in reality!!!
If one were to apply the above 2 different paths of growth rates to derive valuation for Tien Wah, one would certainly end up with 2 totally different valuation!!!
Posted by Robert Love > Feb 5, 2015 11:18 AM | Report Abuse
it is not about forecasting growth. It is about using probabilistic management to manage uncertainty in valuation analysis...
Robert, perhaps you could share with us your "using probabilistic management to manage uncertainty in valuation analysis." in any of the stock you are familiar with.
I am dying to see your prowess in the above.
Btw, please explain what you mean first. I am with a head full of dew water now.
Instead of assuming a certain deterministic value of growth rate for Tien Wah, one should actually use a distribution of growth rate, and examine the impact of this distribution of growth rate on the final valuation, i.e. via Monte Carlo simulation...
1. "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages ." - William J. Perry , Former U.S. Secretary of Defense
2. "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal...In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." - Harry Markowitz , Nobel Laureate in Economics
Posted by Robert Love > Feb 5, 2015 02:10 PM | Report Abuse In essence, F (E(x)) is not the same as E(f(x))....
Wow, F (E(x)) is not = E(f(x))!
What the f is that?
And Robert oh Robert, when are you going to carry out your Monte Carlo simulation on the distribution of the growth rate to estimate the intrinsic value of Tien Wah?
What the f, I though using Monte Carlo simulation on share price of a stock is already mind boggling to all of us here, not to say apa itu Morte Carlo simulation on the distribution of future growth rate!!!!
OMG!!!
Posted by Robert Love > Feb 5, 2015 02:08 PM | Report Abuse
Instead of assuming a certain deterministic value of growth rate for Tien Wah, one should actually use a distribution of growth rate, and examine the impact of this distribution of growth rate on the final valuation, i.e. via Monte Carlo simulation...
WAKAKA!ROBERT MY FRIEND!APA ITI KCCHONGNZ IS TAI CHI MASTER!YOU POINT OUT HIS MISTAKE HE TAI CHI ONLY!!!
HE IS CALVINTANENG BEST FRIEND AND PRAISED HIM AS HONEST TRUSTWORTHY MAN!OMG!APA ITU!!! WAKAKAKA!!
ROBERT MY FRIEND,APA ITU SPENT MORE THAN 10 HOURS READ EVERY SINGLE COMMENT!!!LOL!!!HOW CAN YOU WIN!!!
HOW APA ITU TAI CHI MASTER GOING TO TAI CHI!!
1.FORGET ALL HIS BAD SELECTION. 2.COMPARE WITH INDEX.INDEX MADE UP FROM 30 LARGEST MARKET CAP CO. 3.HARPING ON VALUE INVESTING WHEN PERFORM BADLY VS OTHERS. 4.CRITICISE YOU ON CONTRIBUTE NOTHING AND DARE YOU TO FIND MISTAKE ON HIS PART.LOL!!!THEN APA ITU PRETEND TO FORGET AGAIN!!! 5.FAVOURITE PART IS FLAG YOU NON STOP!!!10 HOURS OK!!!
Hahha... Monte Carlo simulations on the distribution of growth rate... OMG you are going to get a super wide range of intrinsic values ... basically garbage in garbage out anyway, whats the point of complicating things... valuation is an art not precise science... But yea... please show us this new method of calculating the intrinsic value using MC simulation... I am also very eager to learn....
Tien Wah is in sunset industry, just like Star (Star slightly better 'cos it is trying to evolve through internet involvement). But again every share has its market value. To buy Star or Tien Wah with even money, I will choose Star. At present price, I will not consider both. To me, Tien Wah will be a good buy at 1.50, Star will be 1.80.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kcchongnz
6,684 posts
Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-27 20:13 | Report Abuse
You have posted 51 posts on this thread originated by me here. Every post of yours, without exception, is about how bad Tien Wah is, and how good is your New Toyo, while New Toya as you have said owns 50% of Tien Wah. So how could this be? It is not that I give a damn.
I wrote the original post on Tien Wah here and I never asked anybody to buy it nor even talked about it after the posting. Yes, its business seems to be not doing well compared to before. Since then (10 months), its share price dropped 7 sen, or 3%. So what?
When people got tired of responding to your bashing posts, you come with these types of sarcastic remarks like below:
Posted by Robert Love > May 26, 2014 09:16 PM | Report Abuse
Where are all the strong supporters of Tien Wah?
Cowards hiding and still tied to your mother's apron strings ?
Do you have a life?