Posted by carson > 2014-04-20 16:19 | Report Abuse

hi kcchongnz, what do you think of wct, another const. mid cap, please give your views on its fundamentals and any upside in 2014 and are we facing another financial meltdown or just a mild corrections going forward

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-04-20 16:34 | Report Abuse

All we need 2know is at wat price u sell 4profit taking, sir.

Posted by Huang > 2014-04-20 16:51 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong: I do not opine that it is your responsibility to update regularly the status of the “recommended” (replace with "discussed" if you dislike the word recommended) stock. Nevertheless when I saw your comment pops up at the right time to share your view on the significant change on share performance, I were touched with your generosity and good deed. THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!!

Posted by ganasai > 2014-04-20 18:38 | Report Abuse

you may be find another stock similar like pbbank. So why to ask when to sell?

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-04-20 18:38 | Report Abuse

It isn't about responsibility...... He assume us as his students. He doesn't wan2 see us fail

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-20 18:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by carson > Apr 20, 2014 04:19 PM | Report Abuse

hi kcchongnz, what do you think of wct, another const. mid cap, please give your views on its fundamentals and any upside in 2014 and are we facing another financial meltdown or just a mild corrections going forward

I am not a know-all person. As am individual I have my limit; limit of knowledge, time, capability etc, especially if you talk about macro thingy and predicting what will happen in the future. I don't know about the future, and I don't know about every stock, not even 5% (may be 1%) of stocks in Bursa.

I did make a comparison of some construction companies in term of efficiencies which include WCT. It is not bad a company. Most of all, it is inexpensive. Please refer to the following link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/46573.jsp

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-20 19:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by KinSoon Kok > Apr 20, 2014 04:34 PM | Report Abuse

All we need 2know is at wat price u sell 4profit taking, sir.

Kin Soon,
You may have missed the point. For sure I am at profit for investing in Pintaras Jaya since I started buying it 4-5 years ago. But when to sell? This I have deliberated in the article. Hope you can read it again.

Your question of "when to sell for profit" is not appropriate for value investing. The article has explained that I will sell if the price exceeds the intrinsic value of the stock, not just for any profit. This you must spend a little effort to learn how to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock.

Without having a feel of what the intrinsic value of a stock is, it is hard for me to decide when to sell or whether to buy.

I suggest you read what I think you should do here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50550.jsp

Your question may be more appropriately directed to technical analysts.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-20 20:32 | Report Abuse

HiKcchong,

Mind to give me your report? My concluding statement was “all three methods above give a fair value of Pintaras in excess of RM3.35” (or an adjusted price now of RM1.68). That was less than 4 years ago.

I tried to search your posts but could not get it.
Thanks.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-20 21:10 | Report Abuse

Can you evaluate one company? EUPE?

My opinion,

Cons

1:From my perspective, its earning capabilities do not meet my requirement at all. Its ROIC,ROE,FCF for the last 5 years do not meet my requirement .

2:Have not been giving dividends for 10 years.

Pros

1: Expanding footprint in KL. Launching three projects and two of the projects worth 720m that contribute to its bottom line significantly.

2: There might be a sign of a change in divdiend policy (gave dividend in 2013)

3: Graham net net= RM1.28 intrinsic value

Posted by ksng0307 > 2014-04-20 21:43 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, just to get a little bit of advice from u. I am using the projection of future eps growth rate to calculate my intrinsic value and i find this method at times is not workable on certain counters as this calculation requires consistently growing company which make the eps growth rate more predictable. I tried to learn the DCF method but is quite uncomfortable with this method as you are required to predict the cash flow growth rate. Maybe you can share once again your spreadsheet as I really keen to pick up some valuable knowledge from you, thanks.

Posted by ksng0307 > 2014-04-20 22:13 | Report Abuse

Just calculate using eps growth rate method based on last friday closing with a projection of 15% eps growth rate (actual growth rate is a lot higher, i am using a more conservative figure) and i got RM3.53 as the intrinsic value.

Posted by houseofordos > 2014-04-20 22:41 | Report Abuse

KC, thank you for the many analysis and valuable knowledge you have imparted selflessly here. My thought is that a company like Pintars with supernormal ROIC and ROE will definitely invite more competition in the future. No business can maintain this kind of ROE/ROIC for long periods as high margin business will invite more competition. In your article here,

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/46430.jsp

you have explained some of the moats of Pintaras that allowed it to sustain its margin. How long do you think Pintaras can maintain this edge ? Perhaps lets say in worst case
1. Key management leaves the company.
2. A competitor company recreating the "specialized plant and equipment" that Pintaras has and encroaching their market share. How long do you think this would take ?

Thanks for your views.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 02:54 | Report Abuse

Posted by digiuser016 > Apr 20, 2014 08:32 PM | Report Abuse
HiKcchong,
Mind to give me your report? My concluding statement was “all three methods above give a fair value of Pintaras in excess of RM3.35” (or an adjusted price now of RM1.68). That was less than 4 years ago.
I tried to search your posts but could not get it.
Thanks.

digiuser016, thanks for your interest in my valuation report for Pintaras. You are really detailed from all the posts I read by you. Can't bluff you.

That report is a very old report, 4 years ago? Pintaras's fundamentals has changed dramatically since then. Revenue and earnings has improved from 106m and 20.7m to 184.4m and 55.4m respectively. And its expected revenue for the coming 12 months could be more than 300m now.

So it is the present and the future which is important.

I haven't join the forum yet 4 years ago and hence I did not post it in i3, but distributed to my friends then. If you are interested (it is really outdated), give me your email address here.

KC

Posted by erkongseng > 2014-04-21 17:54 | Report Abuse

erkongseng@gmail.com

Posted by erkongseng > 2014-04-21 17:55 | Report Abuse

tks ,i have interest for ptaras

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 18:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by digiuser016 > Apr 20, 2014 09:10 PM | Report Abuse
Can you evaluate one company? EUPE?
My opinion,
Cons
1:From my perspective, its earning capabilities do not meet my requirement at all. Its ROIC,ROE,FCF for the last 5 years do not meet my requirement .
2:Have not been giving dividends for 10 years.
Pros
1: Expanding footprint in KL. Launching three projects and two of the projects worth 720m that contribute to its bottom line significantly.
2: There might be a sign of a change in divdiend policy (gave dividend in 2013)
3: Graham net net= RM1.28 intrinsic value

By looking what you have given here, for sure I am not interested in this company. Sorry I won't spend time on this in this forum.

However, you may be right looking at the future, as the future is more important. But to me, the future projection, if you have any, is only an expectation.

And for me, “I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past” Patrick Henry

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-21 18:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 21, 2014 02:54 AM

thanks for your interest in my valuation report for Pintaras. You are really detailed from all the posts I read by you. Can't bluff you

Haha, you have a sense of humor. I am interested to see how you change your intrinsic value in accordance with the change fundamentl of a company. This is why I want to get the report.

My email: johnwong19xx@gmail.com

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 18:30 | Report Abuse

digiuser016,

As a record here, I just sent you that report as requested. Just to record here that I didn't bluff. Cheers.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-21 18:39 | Report Abuse

haha. thanks yeah.

Haiyo... we know you are a trustworthy person,I did not think you bluffed when I read the article. I want to get the report to know how you change your intrinsic value. OK?

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-21 18:46 | Report Abuse

hi kcchong,

Do you have the report that contains "all three methods above give a fair value of Pintaras in excess of RM3.35"

Thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 18:46 | Report Abuse

digiuser016,

I may be joking here. But in the www, there are all kinds of people. A few months ago I was accused of not only bluffing, but cheating, pusing, copy and paste,etc. This thing is real.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-21 18:58 | Report Abuse

sorry to hear about that......无端端惹祸上身。

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 18:59 | Report Abuse

Posted by digiuser016 > Apr 21, 2014 06:46 PM | Report Abuse
hi kcchong,
Do you have the report that contains "all three methods above give a fair value of Pintaras in excess of RM3.35"

OOp, send you the wrong report which was in November 2012, not the first report which was on August 2010.

Here is the one in your email.

Really cannot bluff you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 19:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by ksng0307 > Apr 20, 2014 09:43 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, just to get a little bit of advice from u. I am using the projection of future eps growth rate to calculate my intrinsic value and i find this method at times is not workable on certain counters as this calculation requires consistently growing company which make the eps growth rate more predictable. I tried to learn the DCF method but is quite uncomfortable with this method as you are required to predict the cash flow growth rate. Maybe you can share once again your spreadsheet as I really keen to pick up some valuable knowledge from you, thanks.

I got no idea of how you calculate your intrinsic value and hence not in the position to comment.

I have many spreadsheets but they are not user-friendly. I have previously sent out to many i3 forumers, but very very few used them. So I don't think you can get anything out of them.

Why don't you join my fee-based web course on investment.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-21 19:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by houseofordos > Apr 20, 2014 10:41 PM | Report Abuse

KC, thank you for the many analysis and valuable knowledge you have imparted selflessly here. My thought is that a company like Pintars with supernormal ROIC and ROE will definitely invite more competition in the future. No business can maintain this kind of ROE/ROIC for long periods as high margin business will invite more competition. In your article here,

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/46430.jsp

you have explained some of the moats of Pintaras that allowed it to sustain its margin. How long do you think Pintaras can maintain this edge ? Perhaps lets say in worst case
1. Key management leaves the company.
2. A competitor company recreating the "specialized plant and equipment" that Pintaras has and encroaching their market share. How long do you think this would take ?


Yes, the article cited by you has explained what I think about Pintaras moat. There is nothing much i can add if you still think its ROE and ROIC is unbelievable.

One thing the management of the company is the major shareholder. Dr Chiu holds about 60% of the shares, I think. So there is the perfect alignment of the interest of management and shareholders. So if Dr Chiu sells off the company, it will be a complete different story for Pintaras Jaya. He is still young, <60? Will he cash out? I don't think so in the near or mid-term basis.

Yes, high ROE business will certainly attract competitions. But heavy foundation is not an easy construction works. But I think more important is there is plenty of work in the next few years and there is simply not enough resources in the market, and hence its high price demanded. the other thing is even if you have good managers, but if they are not owners and there is no alignment of interest, it is totally different.

Posted by houseofordos > 2014-04-21 20:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks KC for your explanation.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-04-21 20:13 | Report Abuse

Sir, u mentioned about your fee-based course. Can u give more infor.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-04-21 21:01 | Report Abuse

I have read plenty of Warren Buffett books. If I apply his teaching, it seems impossible to buy any share in KLSE? Somebody told me that his teaching is only applicable in efficient market, but not in KLSE. Since your investment rate of return exceeds 50%, I believe your approaches are much more suitable in KLSE.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2014-04-22 00:56 | Report Abuse

Thank you for your report.

Well, It is very interesting to read your reports.

The first report contains three valuation method- dividend+pe, pe, and dcf(5 years average fcf and golden growth model).
The second report contains one valuation method- dcf(trailing twelve months fcf, damodaran)
The third report( you published it 2 months ago) has one valuation method dcf> 2 years average fcf(golden growth).

You have used different data for the same model(5 years fcf, 12months, 2 years). Haha, valuation is an art, not science.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-22 03:49 | Report Abuse

Posted by KinSoon Kok > Apr 21, 2014 09:01 PM | Report Abuse
I have read plenty of Warren Buffett books. If I apply his teaching, it seems impossible to buy any share in KLSE? Somebody told me that his teaching is only applicable in efficient market, but not in KLSE. Since your investment rate of return exceeds 50%, I believe your approaches are much more suitable in KLSE.

I have never read any book from Warren Buffet. Has he ever written any book?

I think you could have read books written by others about him. I think again you got his ideas completely wrong from your statements above.


Posted by KinSoon Kok > Apr 21, 2014 08:13 PM | Report Abuse
Sir, u mentioned about your fee-based course. Can u give more infor.

Give me your email address here if you are interested asap. We are starting soon. I myself am excited about it.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-04-22 06:16 | Report Abuse

Here is my e-mail. Looking forward 2hear from u soon.
kks33@hotmail.my

Posted by ChunJui Lee > 2014-04-23 02:26 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongz I am really keen with the course as well. My email

alxleecj@hotmail.com

hope to hear from you soon.

Posted by jtsp > 2014-04-23 15:23 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongz, hope to get the valuation reports on Pintaras from you too.

My email is mikekhew.zeal@gmail.com.

Thank you!

Posted by lindahui > 2014-04-23 20:34 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchong, i'm interested in your valuation report on Pintaras as well as fee based course. appreciated send the detail in
lindahui188@outlook.com

Posted by cheongcy > 2014-04-24 11:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Kcchong, i am interested your valuation report too..appreciate if you could share.

Email: cyong2020@yahoo.com

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-04-24 11:32 | Report Abuse

I have done a lot of work on Pintaras Jaya, valuations and all that. You can go here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/

Posted by 2862862 > 2014-05-08 17:37 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, u a damn good!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-21 19:26 | Report Abuse

Sell, sell, sell. Pintaras profit down!

Yes, that is the mentality of most so-called investors. They are “investing” by looking at EPS quarter to quarter, nothing else.

Pintaras just announced that its third quarter results and EPS dropped to 5.8 sen from 8.6 sen, or about 30%. But was that really a drop in its real earnings in the first place?

Pintaras gross profit actually increased by about 13% from 15.9m to 18m for this third quarter. The net profit dropped by 23%, mainly because of the expensing of 4m on the option granted to the management. This 4m expense is just an estimation of the value of this option (using Black-Scholes OPM, I guess) and it is a non-cash item.

There was also a drop in income of some non-operating items.

So in fact, the core operation of Pintaras was doing better for this quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter last year. How can one knows about this? Just look at its cash flow statement, and the increase in cash and cash equivalent of its balance sheet.

Don’t forget that this period has not included any revenue of the two biggest projects so far of more than 70m each just secured a couple of months ago which have not started during that period yet.

Posted by NOBY > 2014-05-22 09:19 | Report Abuse

superb... the sell off for PTARAS has started... i m preparing my bullets..

Posted by jasonlaw > 2014-05-22 09:40 | Report Abuse

Hi Kcchong, i am interested in your fee base course.

Email: jason.cclaw@gmail.com

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-23 12:09 | Report Abuse

Posted by NOBY > May 22, 2014 09:19 AM | Report Abuse
superb... the sell off for PTARAS has started... i m preparing my bullets..

That is the difference between a true investor who understand the business of a company he invests in, the concept of "Mr Market", know how to read financial statements and analyze, and have a feel of valuation, and the crowd.

Posted by muzes23 > 2014-05-23 20:47 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz, interested in joining your fee base course. Please email me at amudzaffar@gmail.com.thank u.

Posted by vnewee > 2014-06-22 00:17 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz, please email me details of your course. thank you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-06-23 10:21 | Report Abuse

Posted by vnewee > Jun 22, 2014 12:17 AM | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz, please email me details of your course. thank you.


How to email you? No email address also.

Posted by vnewee > 2014-07-10 18:59 | Report Abuse

sorry that i have forgot my email kcchongnz. here you go:vnewee@gmail.com. please email me details of your course. thank you. :)

Posted by choon_fei2001 > 2014-09-27 11:21 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz,
do you still conduct any FA courses? I am interested as well. If you did see this msg, can you also send me an email on the course detail, email: Choon_fei2001@yahoo.com

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-09-27 15:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by choon_fei2001 > Sep 27, 2014 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
Hi kcchongnz,
do you still conduct any FA courses? I am interested as well. If you did see this msg, can you also send me an email on the course detail, email: Choon_fei2001@yahoo.com


Many people here asked me before wanting to join my online course, but when I sent them the particulars, especially they know that they have to pay a fees, although it is a small sum, they gave up joining. Little do they know that many are penny-wise pound foolish.

Yes, I have one course starting now. Please email me if you are truly interested. Remember, there is a fee.

ckc14training@gamil.com

I just received this email an hour ago from one of my students.

Lam Kun Onn

6:05 PM (1 hour ago)

to me
Dear KC,
I just read of yr comment in KNM:
"Do you really follow investment bankers recommendations to buy shares? What were the outcomes from those investments? @#%&*"

my answer is yes and it costs me RM35k in just less than 5month on TAS recently. The "tuition fees" is truly expensive and I will not hesitate to pay you as little as RM100 each month to minimize similar mistake in future.
no wonder yr comment ended with 4 letter words..&%#@ hahaha...
wish you a nice week end.
regards,
Lam


The below two posts were from my students in i3investor a week ago:

Posted by coolio > Sep 17, 2014 02:02 PM | Report Abuse

I'm a KC student, glad to be his student & great to be his first batch student! what I can say is I really benefited from his course. He inspire you, entertain you (with winning stocks), and you end up learning tons of knowledge even in short period of time and you will be able to pick your own winning stocks! Cheers


Posted by SS661M > Sep 18, 2014 08:12 AM | Report Abuse

Some of u might think, what is so great about KC? My remisier's promises much higher returns. Well, I'm sure that KC's returns is in fact higher than what he published. He does some short term investments that he never mention or publish them. His intention is to teach u fundamental investment so that u can get some decent returns while keeping your job. He is not intended to teach you to punt, like what your remisier is doing. I guess the course is almost done but i'll still subscribe to KC. $100 monthly is nothing compare to the amount i invested. I think i pay much more brokerage fees than that. I do that because i have unlimited Q&A session with KC through email. I can learn all his FA skills but can never learn all his experience. I m learning from other oldbirds in I3 forum. When learning with KC, u just say u don't know and he'll be more than happy to teach u. If u want to learn from those oldbirds, u got to show them your kungfu and they will defend their superior position. That is how u learn from them. It isn't easy. Sometime i have to make a fool of myself and in the end of the day i learn nothing. Reason is the oldbird also dun know much but just hearing news from here and there. If you are going to make one right decision in your share investment life, let it be this one. Join KC!