Allow me to chip in some comments on your portfolio.
You were kind of unlucky that the overall market turned south the last few months of the year. Otherwise you may emerge champion in this fun challenge if the market were to follow that of the US market, a bull market, as leveraged instruments like warrants will generally do much better.
As the market is not in your favour, it is understandable that you did badly in your portfolio as it is comprised of 80% of warrants. But why did Ooi Teik Bee do the best with his two warrants, HapSeng Wa (178%) and Inari Wa (92%)? HapSeng is a solid diversified conglomerate with sound fundamentals, although I am a little surprise on Inari. So betting on the right horse makes a difference.
The other thing is OTB bet on the right furniture industry on the spot, although I thought he was a little concentrated in his portfolio. Anyway, he was right.
At least I was very skeptical about the warrant of Instaco (-55%). I am always very skeptical when a CEO hogs the limelight in public medias telling everyone how good their company is, how undervalued is their stocks, how fantastic their prospect going to be, what projects they are going to do and how much they expect to make etc, when they have never shown any in the past before. It has been shown again and again, under this kind of circumstances, the insiders are distributing their shares at the back.
I am really surprised you place so heavy bet on this cuscapi (-65%), and on its warrants some more. Someone asked me before about this Cuscapi, I didn’t think any good of it:
Basically you are right as you just said; you are putting too much expectation on its future, meaning you pay too much for expected growth. I can see you are moving towards value investing. Well done.
Mr KCChongnz, thanks for your input. Agreed with you as too much expectation on future potential will not only required time, but also the luck. There maybe good in future but only god know. cheers!
milopanas utk rekod ooi teik bee cost price tukar kpd 2 jan 2014.macam ini baru adil...ada bagi diskaun sebab i tak kira buying cost...ikut 2 jan harga seperti harga growthinvestor,kita boleh lihat ooi teik sudah kalah kalau advantage takde...
kalau saya growthinvestor,mesti tak bagi orang tau stock pilihan 2015.mesti tak suka sebab main kroni.ada siapa pilih scgm dan untung 90%.cuma growthinvestor saja.
Also allow me to make a comment about your stocks.
You did well too if not for this "Sai". This is another company which is built on hype and hope, hype of everything oil and gas, and hope that the major shareholder will take care of you, despite all the writings on the wall that his interest is utmost compared to yours. See some of my comments here:
when the market turned south ( try to minimize the losses and preserve the $capital) no matter good is your stock picking. when sentiment turned it's hard to fight the negatively. must be prepare for long haul;. happy trading and have a very Goat year
Posted by ks55 > Dec 30, 2014 04:23 PM | Report Abuse
Hey kcchongnz. Win is win, lose is lose. Where got meaning to blame on market "You were kind of unlucky that the overall market turned south the last few months of the year." How to make money consistently over long period of time (meaning every year making money). When market is good, you make money. When market is bad, you lose money. Mind you, this type of standard is the same standard I have 30 years ago.! I took three years paying tuition fees, making then losing, then making only to lose again. You disappoint me, if you are of the same standard.
Well, I don't have to please anybody for sure. if you are disappointed by me, or anybody else, it is your own doing. Nothing to do with me.
One thing, I never in this forum tell anybody which stock to buy, which stock to sell, whether I buy this or that or how much I made, but merely sharing information about if a company is good, or not good. If you are disappointed about me blaming the market for my losses, I think you are barking on the wrong tree.
Thank you so much for your feedback. I really appreciate it. Of course you are always welcome to comment my picks or anything. You are one of the people here in i3 who gives constructive feedback and I really appreciate the gesture.
Agree with you fully that this Peri'SAI' is another company which is built on hype and hope only. I have learnt a lot of this exercise. That is why I wants to participate in 2015's Stock Pick (if there's any). At least I want to improve further.
P/S: I really lost money this year but luckily I did not touch Peri'SAI' in my actual investment.
Sigh.... I m negative for this year because of over trading and selling winners too early. Just looking back at my transactions shows tht just buying and holding will do well instead of trying to time the in and outs. As Peter Lynch said, you only need a few multi baggers in your lifetime to outperform the market but the key is to let your winners ride....
Posted by ks55 > Dec 30, 2014 04:23 PM | Report Abuse
Hey kcchongnz. Win is win, lose is lose. Where got meaning to blame on market "You were kind of unlucky that the overall market turned south the last few months of the year." How to make money consistently over long period of time (meaning every year making money). When market is good, you make money. When market is bad, you lose money. Mind you, this type of standard is the same standard I have 30 years ago.! I took three years paying tuition fees, making then losing, then making only to lose again. You disappoint me, if you are of the same standard.
I have never heard of anyone making money in the stock market all the time so far. I also never heard of any investment strategy making money all the time, every year. For all I know, there is none, zero, kosong, nobody has been making money every year.
I found one now. You have found the Holy Grail and You are the chosen one.
Ine of the best performing stock in the 3 portfolios is Hapseng and its warrants. I believe this was due to the management good capital allocations on terms of enhancing shareholder value through buy backs. If only alll those numerous companies on Bursa with tons of cash would do the same..
Maybe im the only person that thinks Hapseng fundamental is not as good as many people though, I bought it around June 2013 and dispose all of it around mid this year. FY2014 profit hit record high mainly due to fair value gain, strip off that, core profit would have fallen by close to 40-50% of FY2013 level. Also the increase risk concentration of relying on property sector to support the group's earning. Hapseng is relatively new to property development, but property division already contribute almost 60%+ of earnings. Other division such as Automobiles selling Mercedes, fertilizer, quarry are either flat or down in 2014, exception being plantation, but from the long term, it seems like property is the only division that can support this growth. I am not denying who knows they can do really well in property, but the risk is crystal clear.
FA include biscuit balance between crunchiness and chewiness; aftertaste; cholesterol & sugar level; biscuit per fullness (the more a person can consume without feeling full, the better) etc
think so true they said majority will lost in share market. the minority are those sharks and value investor+some 'luck'? myself also switch to property investment instead mostly. left a little bit for unit trust. little bit, one counter for stock for now.
Hm since u say im so naive to believe, that means u dont have evidence to proof it is the management and CEO that dump the shares that caused the drop today? or the speculators? Or maybe everytime the share drop you will come and laugh at me ?
Posted by ks55 > Dec 30, 2014 05:34 PM | Report Abuse kcchongnz -- You didn't come across, that doesn't mean none. With a little bit of luck, I dare to tell you, there are people with that type of calibre.
"I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let's assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise, and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out, and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 220,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000.
Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.
Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won.
By then, this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on "How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning." Worse yet, they'll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, " If it can't be done, why are there 215 of us?"
cukupla kcchongnz lu sendiri tak mau join.kata ni game tak penting tapi cakap banyak sekarang.tengok lu punya stock analysis cenbond, padini,kuchai sudah tau lu koyak.
jgn kata market tak bagus.adakah growthinvestor,ooi teik bee,hjey,skyland tau market koyak dari oktober?top 4 ini ialah stockpicker terbaik di i3.mereka yg patut cakap sekarang.
kc tu saja nak kecoh. semua stock dia koyak habis pun. pandai pulak nak cover line kecoh dengan cakap kosong dia tu. diangkat pulak ks55 konon pakar saham, dahlah ks55 ni batang hidung kembang kena pujian kosong
Bukan main lagi puji ks, macam dumb and dumber jerr pasangan sumbang ni. ks tu beli saham yang nak delist pun, London Biscuit tu bukan dah basi ke? Dah tu kejar SKPetro masa harga minyak menjunam. Lepas tu tambah gelak lagi, dibeli or harga 14 sen sedangkan hari ni pun 9 sen boleh beli senang lenang. Pasangan dumb and dumber katakan
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Posted by YiStock > 2014-12-30 13:11 | Report Abuse
Thanks Tan KW, indeed a great example of failure to invest based on future! Cheers!
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/26181.jsp