Posted by YiStock > 2014-12-30 13:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks Tan KW, indeed a great example of failure to invest based on future! Cheers!
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/26181.jsp

Posted by murali > 2014-12-30 13:39 | Report Abuse

I would say a great performance by OTB...despite the year end sell down...

Posted by jester > 2014-12-30 14:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks Tan KW. Great exposure for me. I have learnt a lot.
Could we all do this again for 2015? What say you guys?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 14:23 | Report Abuse

YiStock,

Allow me to chip in some comments on your portfolio.

You were kind of unlucky that the overall market turned south the last few months of the year. Otherwise you may emerge champion in this fun challenge if the market were to follow that of the US market, a bull market, as leveraged instruments like warrants will generally do much better.

As the market is not in your favour, it is understandable that you did badly in your portfolio as it is comprised of 80% of warrants. But why did Ooi Teik Bee do the best with his two warrants, HapSeng Wa (178%) and Inari Wa (92%)? HapSeng is a solid diversified conglomerate with sound fundamentals, although I am a little surprise on Inari. So betting on the right horse makes a difference.

The other thing is OTB bet on the right furniture industry on the spot, although I thought he was a little concentrated in his portfolio. Anyway, he was right.

At least I was very skeptical about the warrant of Instaco (-55%). I am always very skeptical when a CEO hogs the limelight in public medias telling everyone how good their company is, how undervalued is their stocks, how fantastic their prospect going to be, what projects they are going to do and how much they expect to make etc, when they have never shown any in the past before. It has been shown again and again, under this kind of circumstances, the insiders are distributing their shares at the back.

I am really surprised you place so heavy bet on this cuscapi (-65%), and on its warrants some more. Someone asked me before about this Cuscapi, I didn’t think any good of it:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/in_search_of_excl_kcchongnz/34628.jsp

Basically you are right as you just said; you are putting too much expectation on its future, meaning you pay too much for expected growth. I can see you are moving towards value investing. Well done.

Posted by YiStock > 2014-12-30 14:57 | Report Abuse

Mr KCChongnz, thanks for your input. Agreed with you as too much expectation on future potential will not only required time, but also the luck. There maybe good in future but only god know. cheers!

Posted by jester > 2014-12-30 15:07 | Report Abuse

Great wise words from kcchongnz. Really learnt a lot from your posts.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 15:48 | Report Abuse

tak betul.kalau admin boleh tambah dividend,bonus issue dan lain,mesti boleh tukar harga quote balik ke 2 jan 2014.

no 1 ialah growthinvestor baru ooi teik bee no 2.mesti mau adil.jangan main kroni tolong satu orang.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 15:49 | Report Abuse

milopanas utk rekod ooi teik bee cost price tukar kpd 2 jan 2014.macam ini baru adil...ada bagi diskaun sebab i tak kira buying cost...ikut 2 jan harga seperti harga growthinvestor,kita boleh lihat ooi teik sudah kalah kalau advantage takde...

harga 2 jan dan harga otb bulan dis13

hapseng wa 1.26 (otb 1.042)
hevea 1.39 (otb 0.942)
homeriz 0.675 (otb 0.556)
inari wa 1.22 (otb 1.132)
insas 0.88 (otb 0.922)
latitude 2.07 (otb 1.764)
puncak wb 2.40 (otb 2.195)
tas 1.15 (otb 1.103)
tguan 2.10 (otb 1.904)
wtk 1.32 (otb 1.223)

09/12/2014 14:26

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 15:54 | Report Abuse

kalau saya growthinvestor,mesti tak bagi orang tau stock pilihan 2015.mesti tak suka sebab main kroni.ada siapa pilih scgm dan untung 90%.cuma growthinvestor saja.

Posted by bracoli > 2014-12-30 15:54 | Report Abuse

how come no KCCHONGZ portfolio?

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 15:55 | Report Abuse

stock plastic company paling untung tahun 2014 ialah scgm.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 15:59 | Report Abuse

dalam banyak peserta,yg paling tau hapseng ialah hjey.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 16:01 | Report Abuse

ooi teik bee,hjey,tkw tiga oun ada dlam stockpic 2013.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/44161.jsp

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 16:02 | Report Abuse

ooi teik bee dan tkw banyak trading.cuma hjey buy hold hapseng sejak 2013.pilihan yg serupa dgn 2014.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 16:05 | Report Abuse

jgn main kroni tolong satu orang.mesti mau adil.sekarang cuma no3 dan no4 belum tentu lagi.hjey lawan skyland.

1.growthinvestor
2.ooi teik bee
3.hjey
4.skyland

Posted by soojinhou > 2014-12-30 16:07 | Report Abuse

Tan KW thank you for organising this. OTB congratulations!

Posted by fayeTan > 2014-12-30 16:11 | Report Abuse

congrats all... this is a good way to learn from each other. How to join for 2015 challenge? I am interested as well

Posted by tbm65 > 2014-12-30 16:12 | Report Abuse

you did well,milopanas.i know the real winner of this challenge is growthinvestor.the top 4 did exceptionally well in this market.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 16:26 | Report Abuse

jetster,

Also allow me to make a comment about your stocks.

You did well too if not for this "Sai". This is another company which is built on hype and hope, hype of everything oil and gas, and hope that the major shareholder will take care of you, despite all the writings on the wall that his interest is utmost compared to yours. See some of my comments here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/700905889.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/800000053.jsp?fp=4&ftp=11

For your other stock picks, i guess given enough time, they will do reasonably well in the long term.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 16:27 | Report Abuse

milopanas in a bull market,almost anyone can make money.but in a sideways markets,a good stock picker can make money when no one else does.

tahniah kepada 4 stockpicker yang betul bagus!

27/12/2014 14:09

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2014-12-30 16:30 | Report Abuse

when the market turned south ( try to minimize the losses and preserve the $capital) no matter good is your stock picking. when sentiment turned it's hard to fight the negatively. must be prepare for long haul;. happy trading and have a very Goat year

Posted by chrischan > 2014-12-30 16:32 | Report Abuse

no bjcorp.good decision!!!!!!!!kikikiki!!!!!!!!

Posted by Steve Jub > 2014-12-30 16:32 | Report Abuse

interesting 'competition' :)

Posted by Steve Jub > 2014-12-30 16:34 | Report Abuse

looks like only top 7 make it to beat FD multiple times. the rest is either same with FD performance or worse still making losses

Posted by chrischan > 2014-12-30 16:35 | Report Abuse

top 4 sing happily to bank.bjcorp kikikikiki!!!!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 16:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by ks55 > Dec 30, 2014 04:23 PM | Report Abuse

Hey kcchongnz. Win is win, lose is lose. Where got meaning to blame on market
"You were kind of unlucky that the overall market turned south the last few months of the year."
How to make money consistently over long period of time (meaning every year making money). When market is good, you make money. When market is bad, you lose money. Mind you, this type of standard is the same standard I have 30 years ago.! I took three years paying tuition fees, making then losing, then making only to lose again.
You disappoint me, if you are of the same standard.

Well, I don't have to please anybody for sure. if you are disappointed by me, or anybody else, it is your own doing. Nothing to do with me.

One thing, I never in this forum tell anybody which stock to buy, which stock to sell, whether I buy this or that or how much I made, but merely sharing information about if a company is good, or not good. If you are disappointed about me blaming the market for my losses, I think you are barking on the wrong tree.

Posted by jester > 2014-12-30 17:01 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz,

Thank you so much for your feedback. I really appreciate it. Of course you are always welcome to comment my picks or anything. You are one of the people here in i3 who gives constructive feedback and I really appreciate the gesture.

Agree with you fully that this Peri'SAI' is another company which is built on hype and hope only. I have learnt a lot of this exercise. That is why I wants to participate in 2015's Stock Pick (if there's any). At least I want to improve further.

P/S: I really lost money this year but luckily I did not touch Peri'SAI' in my actual investment.

Thanks again kc

Posted by NOBY > 2014-12-30 17:02 | Report Abuse

Sigh.... I m negative for this year because of over trading and selling winners too early. Just looking back at my transactions shows tht just buying and holding will do well instead of trying to time the in and outs. As Peter Lynch said, you only need a few multi baggers in your lifetime to outperform the market but the key is to let your winners ride....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 17:07 | Report Abuse

Posted by ks55 > Dec 30, 2014 04:23 PM | Report Abuse

Hey kcchongnz. Win is win, lose is lose. Where got meaning to blame on market
"You were kind of unlucky that the overall market turned south the last few months of the year."
How to make money consistently over long period of time (meaning every year making money). When market is good, you make money. When market is bad, you lose money. Mind you, this type of standard is the same standard I have 30 years ago.! I took three years paying tuition fees, making then losing, then making only to lose again.
You disappoint me, if you are of the same standard.

I have never heard of anyone making money in the stock market all the time so far. I also never heard of any investment strategy making money all the time, every year. For all I know, there is none, zero, kosong, nobody has been making money every year.

I found one now. You have found the Holy Grail and You are the chosen one.

You lighted everyone up.

Posted by NOBY > 2014-12-30 17:09 | Report Abuse

Ine of the best performing stock in the 3 portfolios is Hapseng and its warrants. I believe this was due to the management good capital allocations on terms of enhancing shareholder value through buy backs. If only alll those numerous companies on Bursa with tons of cash would do the same..

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 17:15 | Report Abuse

hapseng stock year 2014.seperti saya kata,lihat balik hjey punya record dia ada tulis banyak pasal hapseng.saya percaya dia memang ada stock ini.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Patient%20Investors%20Will%20Always/58912.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Patient%20Investors%20Will%20Always/45219.jsp

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 17:17 | Report Abuse

kalau ada stockpick 2015,saya mau tengok pilihan top 4.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 17:18 | Report Abuse

dari sana tengok persamaan antara top 4 dan pilih stock yg ada.

Posted by NOBY > 2014-12-30 17:18 | Report Abuse

Haha... ks55, looking forward to see your picks for 2015 which shoukd be a difficult year to make money...

Posted by jester > 2014-12-30 17:29 | Report Abuse

milopanas, do you have your pick for 2015? Can you share and the reasoning behind it? I want to learn.

Thanks

Posted by murali > 2014-12-30 17:39 | Report Abuse

Kc,sometimes its easier to make money when MKT is down...

Posted by JT Yeo > 2014-12-30 17:45 | Report Abuse

Maybe im the only person that thinks Hapseng fundamental is not as good as many people though, I bought it around June 2013 and dispose all of it around mid this year. FY2014 profit hit record high mainly due to fair value gain, strip off that, core profit would have fallen by close to 40-50% of FY2013 level. Also the increase risk concentration of relying on property sector to support the group's earning. Hapseng is relatively new to property development, but property division already contribute almost 60%+ of earnings. Other division such as Automobiles selling Mercedes, fertilizer, quarry are either flat or down in 2014, exception being plantation, but from the long term, it seems like property is the only division that can support this growth. I am not denying who knows they can do really well in property, but the risk is crystal clear.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 18:04 | Report Abuse

Love to hear your "careful FA" on London Biscuits.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2014-12-30 18:19 | Report Abuse

FA include biscuit balance between crunchiness and chewiness; aftertaste; cholesterol & sugar level; biscuit per fullness (the more a person can consume without feeling full, the better) etc

Posted by Steve Jub > 2014-12-30 18:25 | Report Abuse

think so true they said majority will lost in share market. the minority are those sharks and value investor+some 'luck'? myself also switch to property investment instead mostly. left a little bit for unit trust. little bit, one counter for stock for now.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 18:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by murali > Dec 30, 2014 05:39 PM | Report Abuse
Kc,sometimes its easier to make money when MKT is down...

Murali,

Fully agreed with you. That is when the cheap sale is. Either buy socks or stocks, it is good to buy when the market is down.

We buy stocks for long term wealth building, not for 湿湿水 pocket money. What to do, not rich mah. No so much luck, oop luck?

Posted by JT Yeo > 2014-12-30 18:42 | Report Abuse

Hm since u say im so naive to believe, that means u dont have evidence to proof it is the management and CEO that dump the shares that caused the drop today? or the speculators? Or maybe everytime the share drop you will come and laugh at me ?

Posted by JT Yeo > 2014-12-30 18:58 | Report Abuse

lol ok i wish i can ask Mark, alright so ure talking from your experience, i cant comment much on your experience

Posted by ttb88 > 2014-12-30 19:16 | Report Abuse

So Kcchong, mind to share example of share that u bought recently during the downturn? Thanks.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-12-30 19:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by ks55 > Dec 30, 2014 05:34 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz -- You didn't come across, that doesn't mean none. With a little bit of luck, I dare to tell you, there are people with that type of calibre.


"I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let's assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise, and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out, and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 220,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000.

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won.

By then, this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on "How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning." Worse yet, they'll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, " If it can't be done, why are there 215 of us?"

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 19:42 | Report Abuse

cukupla kcchongnz lu sendiri tak mau join.kata ni game tak penting tapi cakap banyak sekarang.tengok lu punya stock analysis cenbond, padini,kuchai sudah tau lu koyak.

jgn kata market tak bagus.adakah growthinvestor,ooi teik bee,hjey,skyland tau market koyak dari oktober?top 4 ini ialah stockpicker terbaik di i3.mereka yg patut cakap sekarang.

Posted by banganglu > 2014-12-30 19:46 | Report Abuse

kc tu saja nak kecoh. semua stock dia koyak habis pun. pandai pulak nak cover line kecoh dengan cakap kosong dia tu. diangkat pulak ks55 konon pakar saham, dahlah ks55 ni batang hidung kembang kena pujian kosong

Posted by milopanas > 2014-12-30 19:56 | Report Abuse

cukupla kita tunggu top 4 cakap.mereka sudah bukti boleh untung masa bear market.tunggu mereka cakap.

Posted by lching > 2014-12-30 19:58 | Report Abuse

are we going to have Stock Pick 2015?

Posted by banganglu > 2014-12-30 20:00 | Report Abuse

Bukan main lagi puji ks, macam dumb and dumber jerr pasangan sumbang ni. ks tu beli saham yang nak delist pun, London Biscuit tu bukan dah basi ke? Dah tu kejar SKPetro masa harga minyak menjunam. Lepas tu tambah gelak lagi, dibeli or harga 14 sen sedangkan hari ni pun 9 sen boleh beli senang lenang. Pasangan dumb and dumber katakan