Timing is a very important task to foreign funds. When economy is foreseen not doing well in near future, they are the first running away. You see the facts.. FF are fleeing Bursa like no tomorrow since Sept 2014.
Aberdeen, Goldman sachs, Credit Suisse & others are still here.
Funds Fled India In droves not too long ago. The Foreign Sentiment was horrifying. As if India was finished. Yet when prices turned attractive these same FF rush as one like crazy back to India.
And now they say India will be a Big Growth Story.
FF often say one thing and do another.
During the Asian Financial Crisis IMF told Malaysia to tighten money supply.
When US went into Subprime Trouble They Increased Money Supply by QE 1 , QE 2 & QE 3
It was Barton Briggs who exclaimed in HK that HE WAS MAXIMUM BULLISH ON HK & CHINA SHARES. Yet 8 days later he totally Sold Off All HK Shares.
I believe in doing sufficient homework to back our decision on the timing of market. FF bought more than RM 20 billion worth of shares during the bull run between 2010 to 2012. It's very reasonable for them to pocket profit now. I am just a small potato and I can enter and exit market easily. I don't want to be part of the hero team to support the market during downturn. Let's see what would happen to the market in the next 6 months. Wakaka.
SOP2. I believe in market cycle of the economy. It's worthwhile to time the market by taking advantage short term fluctuation in market prices. After going through bull and bear market since 1997, I respect the cycle and it's part of our life. I want to be more proactive in response to the cycle.
Short life rebound of the big cap ie Maybank, Genting, PBB. The main support is relying on Tenaga. It provides a golden opportunity for FF to take profit. Malaysia has nothing to shout about at this time. There's no better reason for FF keeps staying in Bursa this year.
If I am not mistaken, EPF and Amanah have pumped in more than RM 3 billion in local KLCI index counters since Nov 2014. Many companies will announce their lacklustre earnings next month. Let's see how our local funds defend the selling pressure from FF.
FF has disposed RM 7.2 billion of equities since Sept 2014 and KLCI dropped 140 points. FF purchased equities worth RM 33.8 billion from 2010 to 2013. They got plenty of funds to dump the market. I want to see how FF would crush the confidence of the market in coming months.
Market timers & speculators fear not only bullish trend reversal, they also fear bearish trend reversal too! In other words, they are anxious no matter which ever trajectory market is at. Contrast that to lonng term investors who ride out all the volatility by staying investted in quality/value/growth stocks at all times instead of trying to outsmarting mart cycles. Maybe the lack of stress in this method of investing is one of the reasons why many billionaire stock investors, works way pass their 80's!
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Kevin Wong
416 posts
Posted by Kevin Wong > 2015-01-19 19:30 | Report Abuse
Market forecasting/timing, won't work over the long term...can't rely on luck for long when it comes to investing!