Posted by Probability > 2015-08-25 22:50 | Report Abuse

USD had weakened against EUR...
what do u say about that?

Posted by guoyen > 2015-08-25 23:05 | Report Abuse

USD up sure Gold up as well?haha

Posted by yapie > 2015-08-25 23:09 | Report Abuse

i am not interest when it start..... i interested in when it ends only.... ha.ha..

Posted by paperplane3 > 2015-08-25 23:46 | Report Abuse

The whole thing is wrong! Usd up, oil and gold shld be down

Posted by Equityengineer > 2015-08-26 00:03 | Report Abuse

All the elements are interconnected but its not simply proportional or disproportional. all will make money if its that simple. Many elements macro and micro play a role. Example, even if dollar rises and the demand for oil is high with low inventory could cause the oil price up. Supply and demand principal. Finally, does the global economy is upbeat or not which drive all other sub -elements up.

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-08-26 08:12 | Report Abuse

Paperplane3
Oops, I am sorry as the diagram arrow has some mistake. I will amend it later. Refer to the words. Haha.

Posted by JT Yeo > 2015-08-26 08:48 | Report Abuse

there is no theory to prove that oil and gold has to go down when USD is up. And the theory itself isnt conclusive either

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-08-26 08:51 | Report Abuse

Have a look
http://marketrealist.com/2015/01/strengthening-us-dollar-impacting-crude-oil-prices/

Posted by Alphabeta > 2015-08-26 09:49 | Report Abuse

Oil price movement is affected supply and demand and some speculative elements. If China GDP growth cannot sustain at 7%, the demand for commodities including oil will weaken and couple with impending supply from Iran early next year. The possibility of oil price moving up in the near term looks dim.

In addition, China ability to switch from export led GDP growth to domestic consumption is hampered by the recent meltdown in the stock market. China has to do more monetary easing and increase infrastructure spending.

European countries growth are hamstring by austerity drive and their debt to GDP are growing over the years since 2008. It is not a good sign.

In addition, US GDP growth sustainability is still a question mark. Japan may also heading for more problems.

If the prices of commodities such as oil continue falling, countries that loaded with US denominated debts and face with trade and fiscal deficits will definitely heading for sovereign debt defaults. That will create a domino effect on the banking industry world wide, more so in the developed countries where exposure to riskier products are more prominent.

If you wish to bottom fish fundamentally sound companies at bargain price, better wait till the first sign when banks reported stable quarterly earning.

Posted by Kian Kwok Lim > 2015-08-26 10:35 | Report Abuse

Wow... Hence can start buy popcorn and watch properties bubbles burst n banks brought down to its kneels.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2015-08-26 13:31 | Report Abuse

This article is true if only based on conventional thinking.

Don't forget that this was what the world of short sellers got tricked when Ben Bernanke started QE1. THEN QE 2 AND QE3.

THE POWER OF KEYNESIAN THEORY HAS BEEN UNLEASED.

SO THERE WILL BE QE4. THEN QE5 TO QE INFINITY.

WHAT WILL BE THE END OF THE END GAME?

THE ANSWER WILL DETERMINE YOUR SUCCESS OR FAILURE IN YOUR INVESTMENT

Posted by calvintaneng > 2015-08-26 13:33 | Report Abuse

Learn to think outside the box and SEE from different angles in life.

Posted by screwdriver > 2015-08-26 13:50 | Report Abuse

Rich, kudos to you, this is the most sensible article I have read so far. Looking forward for more of your articles.

Posted by gnailmihk > 2015-08-26 14:30 | Report Abuse

we are already in the end game. central banks are the market now.

Posted by king36 > 2015-08-26 14:36 | Report Abuse

As a conclusion, as long as Malaysia internal problem couldn’t be solve, the bad cycle of economic will still continue going on.

Why should 29 million Malaysians suffer because of one man who has no clue how to run the country?

Posted by gnailmihk > 2015-08-26 15:03 | Report Abuse

29mil m'sian think debt is money, the other one just taking advantage by ramping up the national debt. this end game is global and unprecedented. why we are not told? simple, if all understand how debt based monetary system works, bersih 4.0 will have a different objective.

Posted by XXXvalue > 2015-08-26 17:43 | Report Abuse

Not everything is true...Msia is not the only crude oil exporter in SEA. In fact Brunei, Indonesia, Thailand and host other countries albeit smaller amount. Now the big question is why the RM is badly hit if it is due to oil export. I believe Brunei shud be worse as its export is almost entirely oil. Looking at global scenario Saudi Arabia should also be in worse situation. But why are their currencies not affected as bad as Msia? In money markets billions move with the click of a button. So it is not as simple as what you suggest...

Posted by Danny Kc > 2015-08-26 18:44 | Report Abuse

Yes, i believe that the main concern is not about the oil price, if it is the oil price, why some of the major exporters currency doesn't get affected? and why Malaysia?

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > 2015-08-26 18:55 | Report Abuse

@Xxxvalue Brunei dollar is bilateral interchangable with S$, since singapore kick out from federation, they signed and agree for brunei to do so. Riyal is peg to usd, same like hk$, which is why you see rmb devalue doesnt affect HKD. Crude price is the war between OPEC to get rid off US shale, al-Naimi the saudi minister of oil has a much bigger impact on oil price than what usd value, punish russia, US supply threat etc. Watch out for next OPEC meeting as it affect price much more than any other factors.

Posted by regnig > 2015-08-26 19:00 | Report Abuse

Very good article and good questions. Why Malaysia? Ask the Government. I am sure we all know all the ugly scandals recently and investors have good reasons to exit from the stock markets and these people also hope to see market to collapse so that they have excellent bargains. Large fund managers will just continue to pump our tax and hard earned money to support them!

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > 2015-08-26 19:09 | Report Abuse

What come up need to go back, ever since FED stimulate their economy, they exported a lot of inflation oversea. Asset price inflation is prominent globally, look at property price in australia, malaysia, taiwan, canada, singapore, philipimes, vietnam UK etc over the past year, all share a lot of similarity. Europe bcoz of crisis, their bubble ady pop eg ireland, spain etc. So next year is the interesting year to watch, as US on their path to normalise, systemic financial risk on those developing nations may increase and no matter how strong malaysia financial position is ( malaysia strong? Puiiii.), once one nation bubble burst, it will be contagious to others countries, and keep in mind, unlike 1997 only asia region, this time is global crisis, somewhere some place on the earth sure got problems. Good things is that US has their own impending bubble too, their shale bubble, so really see who burst first, and next year will be very volatile. Even China cant do much, already manufacturing PMI drop consecutiively, they are trying to resolve their economy transformation issues as that might affect them whether they will be trapped in middle income trap. So next year, beware.

Posted by king36 > 2015-08-27 09:19 | Report Abuse

Ahbeng Beng,.... So next year, beware.
I agree with you Mr Beng. This time, the effect would be painful and long.
Don't hope for any end of 2015 turn around.
I wonder anybody would like to predict how low will KLCI fall?
Will it be a repeat of the financial crisis of the 1997?
And how long did that last? Anybody remember?
I wonder if PM would be brave enough to declare no income tax next year and also temporary halt the GST?
Any taker?

Posted by XXXvalue > 2015-08-27 13:29 | Report Abuse

tq all for the intelligent response to my comments. We have to admit no one knows everything. Todays market whether it is equity, money market or hard commodities are all subject to manipulations. The manipulators are on the look out for preys and certainly with host of problems Msia become an easy target! It is not new as it happen to many other countries before. With a weak Prime Minister who is presently besieged by life & death issue, worrying about the economy will be last thing on his mind! And this seem too aggravate things!

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-08-27 16:10 | Report Abuse

Thanks for all the comment! :) The economy now is still very unstable. Foreign fund still pulling out from Malaysia market in the past two days even though the KLCI index rose. There is no any positive catalyst in our market now. I believe the uptrend in this two days are just temporary as local institutions came out to support again. But, how long they can support?

Posted by LaoLiu > 2015-08-27 16:19 | Report Abuse

Thank for your info and sharing..

Posted by cjcj > 2015-08-27 17:12 | Report Abuse

Learn a lot from this article. Thanks!

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-08-28 11:50 | Report Abuse

Welcome! :)

Posted by Lollipot Anison > 2015-08-31 09:57 | Report Abuse

the global is poised with a big correction - whether it is a crisis no one know.
In the midst of the process - there will be stimulus along the way, it is very hard to predict right now.
The china market is very volatile swing 2-8 per cent daily, until this get stable else smart investor will not pour money in such market