Posted by backspacei3 > 2015-10-05 22:21 | Report Abuse

good

Posted by paperplane2 > 2015-10-05 22:33 | Report Abuse

Cycle almost finish

Posted by The One > 2015-10-06 03:11 | Report Abuse

Nice and detailed write up..

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-10-06 17:06 | Report Abuse

Thanks :)

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-10-06 22:55 | Report Abuse

Sifu paperplane, why did you say cycle almost finish? Based on what? Big+old timer gut feeling? :) Appreciate if you could share your reasonings. Tq.

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-10-07 02:31 | Report Abuse

Hi RicheHo, just wonder why are you using CFFO instead of FCF in your DCF analysis? I think FCF would be more appropriate coz it is the only real cash going into shareholders' pocket.
And may i know what is your rationale for the discount rate of 7%? To me, 7% is quite optimistic. I would use 9% instead (4% fd + 6% bursa risk - 1% its outstanding earning & balance sheet).
Are you using one stage constant growth model @ growth rate 5%?
Did you consider its cash and debt as well?

Thank you.

Posted by chl1989 > 2015-10-07 02:37 | Report Abuse

My DCF is based on FCF. Start from average 6 years FCF (~15mil),
Assume growth rate 6% for 1st 10 years only, then 3% terminal growth after 10 years. (6% calculated from reinvestment rate & ROIC)
Assume discount rate of 9%
Consider its cash @ 50mil & debt @ 2mil

Intrinsic value about RM1.23.

Appreciate your comments.

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-10-07 08:45 | Report Abuse

Hi chl1989, yeap you are right. I was wrong in the DCF model. Hahaha.
Regarding the interest rate of 7%, it was because I read a book and it listed down the interest rate that we should used for each BETA.
Btw, can you teach me how to find FCF in this case? How you get 15m? What to do with the cash and debt?

Thanks and appreciate if you willing to share with me hehe.

Posted by GenghisHoe > 2015-10-18 08:35 | Report Abuse

Hi RicheHo and chl1989 could we make a friend? If interested, kindly text me through bosx8989@gmail.com. Nice to meet you guys ya!

Posted by nokenzo > 2015-10-18 09:29 | Report Abuse

Hi RicheHo, you can subscribe to kcchongnz online financial course to learn FCF, I can assure you will get more than what you bargain for. He is an unselfish and fantastic teacher.

Posted by ngchaiwah > 2015-12-11 10:49 | Report Abuse

chenherid@hotmail.com