Posted by Tom > 2015-11-19 19:17 | Report Abuse

我买股之后最喜欢做的事就是每天盯着股价不断鬼叫 "huat ah","lai liao"比较有气氛

Posted by Tom > 2015-11-19 19:19 | Report Abuse

哦我忘了，还有“rise liao，wahaha，can laugh die liao”

Posted by Pusher_Punisher > 2015-11-19 21:37 | Report Abuse

Again. Another great article from you kcchong. Tq very much. Issues discussed in this article really important to be a great investor.

Posted by Probability > 2015-11-19 23:11 | Report Abuse

yup...these thoughts had been going on my mind especially on the furniture stocks.... he said exactly what went through my mind. People simply sell when the price goes up by say 15%...without having any idea on the - probable Intrinsic Value

Posted by BearbearDrop > 2015-11-19 23:59 | Report Abuse

I had see the price went up quicker after I sold them
And I swear to myself unless it went down to x or I won't buy it and you know it went even higher and it is no turning back to me anymore

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-11-20 08:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by BearbearDrop > Nov 19, 2015 11:59 PM | Report Abuse
I had see the price went up quicker after I sold them
And I swear to myself unless it went down to x or I won't buy it and you know it went even higher and it is no turning back to me anymore


You are not alone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAyKJAtDNCw

Posted by winnicenice > 2015-11-20 10:54 | Report Abuse

great write up....exactly true.........

Posted by fayeTan > 2015-11-20 13:49 | Report Abuse

brave to admit mistake by selling losing counter is a good habit... i generally put it at 5% loss. if it reach there, will do another round of evaluation whether to SELL

Posted by oregami > 2015-11-20 18:03 | Report Abuse

Shall we consider the following factors:
1. Cyclical stocks. If the business is cyclical in nature there's no point to keep it if it's overvalued. Downturn is usually around the corner once it reached the peak.
2. Economic moat. For businesses that have foreseeable economic moat, keeping the winners is reasonable.
3. Alternative investment. After a few years for supernormal growth, it's inivitable to revert to mean. Under this circumstance we can invest in newcomers in the same industry, provide the industry is still bullish.

In order to do the above, one should have board reading, and have interest in both macro and micro economy. One should be alert and aware to business trend and changes.

Posted by GenghisHoe > 2015-11-21 13:48 | Report Abuse

oregami could we make a friend? If interested, please drop me an email at bosx8989@gmail.com.

Posted by digiuser016 > 2015-11-26 19:44 | Report Abuse

Hi Kcchong

Peter Lynch also emphasized that keep your winner stocks in the portfolio, no point to sell a good stock after it has shot up tremendously.
My question is, as an investor, will you fall into "endowment effect" if you hold only winner stocks?
My next question is, will you buy a good quality stock that you had never owned after the stock has shot up tremendously but appears overvalued?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-11-26 20:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by digiuser016 > Nov 26, 2015 07:44 PM | Report Abuse
Hi Kcchong
Peter Lynch also emphasized that keep your winner stocks in the portfolio, no point to sell a good stock after it has shot up tremendously.
My question is, as an investor, will you fall into "endowment effect" if you hold only winner stocks?
My next question is, will you buy a good quality stock that you had never owned after the stock has shot up tremendously but appears overvalued?

I never say I only keep winner stocks in my portfolio. I do have a couple of losers. I analyze most stocks i have bought before buying. Unless the fundamentals have changed, why sell when the price of a good fundamental stock has dropped in price? I am a fundamental investor, not a momentum trader as you would have noticed.

"That’s because in the world of investing, being correct about something isn’t at all synonymous with being proved correct right away.” Howard Marks

Your last question is found in my article here.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/86447.jsp

"But would I buy more if the prices continue to go up above the upper limit the "Sell" MOS? No, I won't."

Posted by GenghisHoe > 2015-12-01 07:18 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz may I know do you have a private discussion group?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-12-01 07:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by GenghisHoe > Dec 1, 2015 07:18 AM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz may I know do you have a private discussion group?

There is a facebook group set up by one participant of mine for all the graduates of my online course. It is a very active group. But it is a private and closed group.

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2015-12-01 16:06 | Report Abuse

Dear KC CHONG sifu,

Thank you for the write up. In the investment field for instance stock market we always hear people say let winner run or let profit run.

May I ask few ques.
1) when everyone has different definition of winner, could you please share how many percent of capital gain or other key indicator baru consider as winner? more than 8% or compare benchmark or BETA count?
2) How and what to determine whether our winner can continue to RUN or halt their running. For example my SLP and SUPERLN how do I know my winners can still run or should I take profit? Other than business changes, fundamental change is there any specific key ratio like comparison of profitability ratio & efficiency ratio etc to speak on?
3) If I wan to take MMSV for case study specifically within my time frame - 2 years it indeed a winner, however it also present to me a unstable of share price performance in 1 -year period (2014 Aug' - 2015 Aug'). Can I rely on Fundamental to decide to close my investment?

Thanks in advance for your sharing. Appreciate in advance.

Warmest regards
duit

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-12-01 20:53 | Report Abuse

Duit,

1) when everyone has different definition of winner, could you please share how many percent of capital gain or other key indicator baru consider as winner? more than 8% or compare benchmark or BETA count?

Me: Winners to me are those stocks way outperform the broad market with alpha of 10%, 20%, 50%, 100% or whatever.


2) How and what to determine whether our winner can continue to RUN or halt their running. For example my SLP and SUPERLN how do I know my winners can still run or should I take profit? Other than business changes, fundamental change is there any specific key ratio like comparison of profitability ratio & efficiency ratio etc to speak on?

Me: Figure 4 in my article may give you some clues. Basically one must have a feel of what the value is compared to its price. Value can be a wide range.

3) If I wan to take MMSV for case study specifically within my time frame - 2 years it indeed a winner, however it also present to me a unstable of share price performance in 1 -year period (2014 Aug' - 2015 Aug'). Can I rely on Fundamental to decide to close my investment?

Me: For me, investing is a long-term endeavour. First one must only get into a serious relationship if there is good future. But things do change, and if the relationship is no longer sustainable, there is no point to carry on.

This again one must have a feel of value vs price.

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2015-12-01 21:25 | Report Abuse

ThaNKS KC CHONG sifu for explanation.

APpreciate it

Posted by GenghisHoe > 2015-12-06 08:29 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz Oh I see. Which means only your students can be in the group? If you have any group is open to whom pursue the same investment philosophy, I wish you can invite me. Thanks! Nice to meet you.