Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 18:30 | Report Abuse

Good article..1st time see u write so long article sifu icon8888

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 18:44 | Report Abuse

This mudajaya is my uncle Kyy baby...he know very well on this mudajaya...hopes uncle Kyy gv some comment

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 19:15 | Report Abuse

After i read 3 times on this article, i will buy mudajaya

Posted by cheoky > 2015-12-28 19:48 | Report Abuse

Icon, their accounting integrity is questionable. Look at ar2011 n ar 2012. Same properties at pj listed on properties of group value at 15m to 62m within a year. No mention in the explanation notes. Write in to query also no respone.... care to comment? That why i sold off with marginal profit

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 20:10 | Report Abuse

cheoky, I did a quick check. I think in 2011, the land was empty. In 2012, they completed building their Corporate office there (you can see they proudly displayed that building in the 2012 report).

In the 2011 annual report, the description for the PJU land is "commercial land for office building". In the 2012 annual report, the description has become "commercial land and office building".

As a general tip for you, if you see a PLC with a property in Africa being revalued from RM15 mil to RM62 mil within one year, you are right to be suspicious.

However, if you see the same thing happens to a property in PJ, very likely there is nothing fishy.

I dealt with accountants quite extensively. Based on my experience, Malaysia's accounting quality is very robust. There is no way something fishy like that can happen in PJ.

The next time you spotted something like that, please remember what Icon888 said, "very likely Cheoky is wrong"

I hope I answer your question

Posted by greddym3 > 2015-12-28 20:11 | Report Abuse

The contra properties are "Crest Jalan Sultan Ismail". Refer thread here : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=452144&page=38

Posted by cheoky > 2015-12-28 20:12 | Report Abuse

Thx for info....u r sharp

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 20:15 | Report Abuse

thanks greddym3

your Chhattisgarh info is worth a million bucks

without that info, there is no Icon8888 article for mudajaya

Posted by soros228 > 2015-12-28 20:17 | Report Abuse

Buy. Huat together.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2015-12-28 20:19 | Report Abuse

icon....with so many exports counters to choose from, why buy an infrastructure company?

no story to tell, no driver, no theme, and anyway, 2016 is not a prosperous years except for exporters.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 20:21 | Report Abuse

Desa I got too much export stocks until every 5 minutes I need to check the exchange rate (exaggerated a bit)

Don't u think it is good for me to diversify a bit ?

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 20:32 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 sifu stock portfolio around rm2.6 billion...keng

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 20:33 | Report Abuse

Fyi, i am not optimus and i m not uncle sam as well

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 20:35 | Report Abuse

I know u r not optimus (I know who u r, koonbee)

but uncle sam ? who is uncle sam ?

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 20:36 | Report Abuse

Hahaha..really?

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2015-12-28 20:42 | Report Abuse

icon888, welcome aboard , your article inspire me to buy more.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2015-12-28 20:43 | Report Abuse

Another very fair, well observed & written article, icon.

On the definition of profit contribution, it can be anything since no further details was given, say profit from associates, gross or net profit, blah blah....everybody let's guess....

Lumi land is just next to Tropicana Golf entrance guard house (correct me if i'm wrong), it is very good land. But looking at the facilities to be provided within the condo, it must be very luxury condo then. Mmm.... hard to predict the sale since so many luxury condos were not fully occupied yet, say the one next to it, The Grande.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 20:49 | Report Abuse

the following is greddym3's info on Lumi
===========
greddym3 Stock: [MUDAJYA]: MUDAJAYA GROUP BHD
Dec 7, 2015 08:26 PM | Report Abuse

Ghazie says Lumi Tropicana has received RM308 million worth of bookings its sales gallery was opened on Nov 9. “We believe we will be able to convert 70% of the registrations,” he adds.

Mudajaya owns 49% in Lumi Tropicana project.

Posted by feimah > 2015-12-28 22:06 | Report Abuse

Great article.
Icon have you include higher cost for in the working cap(GST) and higher corporate tax (28%) in the calculation?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 22:10 | Report Abuse

LOL, I don't think I am capable of going into such details

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2015-12-28 22:22 | Report Abuse

plantations and timber...

these are also export counters but gives somewhat diversification from the high flying manufacturing exporters.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 22:26 | Report Abuse

Desa can I quote you "... now I am with i3, I have too many shares to buy and not enough money. Where to find more money?"

I run out of bullets lah, LOL

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:31 | Report Abuse

Few questions, if cdo start, why no annouce in bursa?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 22:36 | Report Abuse

strictly speaking, they.... Ah, never mind , better don't explain. Everything I said will upset paperplane... Better keep quiet LOL

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:41 | Report Abuse

Tell u. The fact in MKT, mudajaya actually wanna issue more debts into MKT, but no taker! Hahahaaha! They can't even get institutions confident! No money no cash flow for future, byebye

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:42 | Report Abuse

Also they are in negative watch long time Liao, if downgrade, expect it to further dampen!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:42 | Report Abuse

No margin of safety! Ask ITU mak rosmah help u in IV! See APA price, then u know

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 22:43 | Report Abuse

No comment, no comment, paperplane sifu is always correct. Good night good night.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2015-12-28 22:47 | Report Abuse

this morning I have to sell some shares to buy Tguan and Chinwell. First time for many years I am fully invested. Throughout 2015, I average only 50% in the market.


<Desa can I quote you "... now I am with i3, I have too many shares to buy and not enough money. Where to find more money?"

I run out of bullets lah, LOL>

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:52 | Report Abuse

Also, one more killing fact- they have problem sourcing coal there! Worst case they need to import them! Imagin e the strong dollar now! Margin depressed!!!!! No coal, no power!

India is a country hard to do biz! See AirAsia you know! Mudajaya mgt and directors made the wrong decision to go into india! They thought they can reap easy profit here, forgetting the political risk! These kind of mgt making such lousy decision!

It is founded by kyy and few gang, but it fail after few decades! Good luck

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 22:52 | Report Abuse

Ha ha, u discover so many gems ? it seemed i3 has become a gold mine for you

Posted by soros228 > 2015-12-28 22:53 | Report Abuse

Hi Desa,
Just buy some. Top up later. Believe Icon8888.
His blogspot got more hidden gems.
Share the link with u.
http://icon8888.blogspot.my/?m=0


Example of hidden Gem. (WTK, EUPE, Century Bond, Tec Guan, COMCORP , DOLMITE, PBA, ...........Chee Wah etc. )
Good luck.

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

I already loaded 2 lorry

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:55 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya has attracted some attention recently. Market talks is that they are in good position to secure contracts from 1MDB. One of our honoured guest here, Mr Koon, has come up with his blog posting to discuss the company. Mudajaya is a company he is very familiar with, so it makes sense to put his $$$$$ there (quote : Warren buffet).



One of the strong reason for investing in Mudajaya is that they are about to commission their power plant in India and there will be quantum leap in earnings over next few yeas. As somebody who has been trained in science all my life, I always like to double check what other people told me by putting some figures into the concept.



(1) contribution from Indian power project : information is scarce as PLC usually don't make it available to small investors like us. A quick check of various analyst reports showed that both RHB and CIMB analysts expect the project to contribute approximately RM80m earnings (net profit, I persumed).

Mudajaya made about RM150m in 2013. According to RHB, the Indian project will bump up profit to RM220m next year, representing 33% of the profit in 2014. This is not exactly the kind of contribution that warrants a screaming buy (relatively less impactful compared to my pet project Ivory Properties, which upon Penang World City coming into full force, has potential to propel earnings from RM20m to RM100m. I am working on the propaganda piece, watch this space).

But but but... please dont press the sell button for Mudajaya yet..., I will say more about this in the conclusion section.



(2) sensitivty to India Rupee movement : In August 2013, there was big fluctuation in emerging market currencies sending us all running for cover. As the memory is still fresh, every time when somebody told me there will be major earning contribution from overseas, the first thing I do is to evaluate the exposure and potential downside. I did a quick check, Rupee weakened from 16 to 20 (vs Ringgit) over a period of 6 months, a change of 20%. Based on assumption of the India project RM80m earnings contribution, a 20% weakening of Rupee will result in earnings declining to RM64m, a mere RM16m drop compared to group expected earnings of RM220m (about 10%) I breath a sigh of relief. It seemed that I need not worry too much about the unhedged currency exposure



(3) 1MDB project : Mudajaya has good chance to participate in the RM11 billion project as they advised 1MDB at consultancy stage. That is what people said, let's assume it is true (very likely is true)



(4) squeaky clean balance sheet : Mudajaya has zero gearing. How should you interprete this ? For the conservatives, this is a demonstration of financial resilience. For the progressives, this points to a direction of additional profit potential. Mudajaya seemed to realize that they are not working their balance sheet hard enough. Recently, they laucnhed a bond programme that allowed them to raise RM1 billion. About RM200m has been earmarked for wind power projects, etc. Let's once again put some figures into the concept. Let's assume that they draw down RM300m to buy some land banks. With their many years of contracting expereince, venturing into property development (in a big way) is a no brainer. Assuming that the land generate 6 times GDV, total GDV is RM1.8 billion. Spread over five years, GDV per annum of RM360m. Based on 15% net margin, additional net profit of RM50m ?



Conclusion : short term re-rating would come from the India project. Contribution not really that siesmic but not something to be scoffed at as well. Looking at it from capital preservation point of view, the incoming profit makes Mudajaya a defensive play, protecting it from downside by a 33% safety margin. Ability to secure contracts from 1MDB will decisively re-rate the stock (which I think they are likely to get). Gearing up balance sheet going forward sustainably will unlock earnings potential of RM50m to RM100m. Put all these together might result in earnings decisively crossing RM300m within three years. I will leave it to you to ascribe the PE multiple and your own valuation.

To cut the story short, I dont mind taking some position, patiently wait for three years for 50% to 70% potential capital gain

have a nice day

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2015-12-28 22:56 | Report Abuse

yes, I3 seems very good. The day of Comintel, I just used up all my quota before you issued your article.

<Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 28, 2015 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

Ha ha, u discover so many gems ? it seemed i3 has become a gold mine for you>

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:57 | Report Abuse

Icon8888, pls answe r below:
When you recommend in 2014, APA price, now APA price? Loss% how many?
When u first recommend, what is ur basis? Follow kyy ah? Or follow facts? Or follow your estimation?
When u recommend did u ask ppl stop loss shld stock fall below certain %???

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 22:58 | Report Abuse

33% safety margin kah? How u get this? U make ppl lose more than that I think, ytd!

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 23:01 | Report Abuse

Paperplane dont blame icon8888 sifu la...2014 he still newbie like me

I also make a wrong call on greenyb last week

Posted by soros228 > 2015-12-28 23:01 | Report Abuse

Desa, u are right. From his blogspot. Make some handsome profit.
Just sharing with u. Hope we prosperous together.

Posted by Ven Felix > 2015-12-28 23:01 | Report Abuse

My goodness this Koonbee9 like to loitering around i3. He is everywhere. Hehe ! I'm sure u never come to Halex forum Thread. There are damp quite. Come ,, I sincerely invite you and ask your Kyy uncle to come by oso. Hahaha

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2015-12-28 23:01 | Report Abuse

Also, pls compare how the debts gballon, in just this one yr period! From your zero gearing to current credit crunch situation! How mgt going to help?
Also, if India contributed 70m, it will be near 50% on profit. Is it not high counterparty risk? Even power plant commence, anything happen to India, 50% of profit in deep water very fast!

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2015-12-28 23:03 | Report Abuse

I have a cash internet account but no margin account.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 23:06 | Report Abuse

good night everybody ...

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 23:07 | Report Abuse

Good night sifu icon8888, i m waiting bone bone new article after 12 midnight

Posted by soros228 > 2015-12-28 23:08 | Report Abuse

Good night Icon8888. Great effort from u.
Deeply appreciate.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 23:09 | Report Abuse

Desa u must margin !!!! I margin until almost burst already. Damn syiok (sheee let's not alert KC..)

Posted by koonbee9 > 2015-12-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 u still owe me sea cucumber recipi

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2015-12-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

Mr Paper no joke. Do a lot of homework too.

Posted by kakashit > 2015-12-28 23:13 | Report Abuse

Good job Icon, this time must gv u a salute.

We follow Canada's W. Buffett Prem Watsa sure no wrong.

Tonnes of coal had loaded in station 1 n 2

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-28 23:14 | Report Abuse

He is a fund manager

U will know more about him in the future